Dynamic Migration Planning of Broadband Fixed Access Networks subject to CAPEX and OPEX

16. ITG Fachtagung Kommunikationskabelnetze

Rong Zhao, Liwei Zhou, Carmen Mas Machuca, Stefanus van der Merwe, Kai Grunert 15/12/2009

Deutsche Telekom Group

Content

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Motivation General xDSL / FTTx Infrastructure PON and AON Dynamic Migration Strategy Migration Planning Tool Scenarios and Sensitive Parameter Study Conclusions

Page 1

ITG

Motivation
Fixed access technologies World market overview The DSL and Cable subscribers are dominating, but show a decreasing trend, while FTTx subscribers are increasing.
Worldwide Fixed Broadband Subscribers by Technology (Million)
399 361 321 284 258

Worldwide Fixed Broadband Subscribers by Technology (%)

70

ADSL VDSL FTTB FTTH Cable

65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011

ADSL

87 30 3 41

93 49

100 57

106

113 68 40 14

Cable FTTB FTTH VDSL

2012

17

23

10

27

32 13 2011

2008

2009

2010

2012

Source: FTTx: a global analysis, Informa 2008

Page 2

ITG

General xDSL / FTTx Infrastructure

Overview The infrastructure of ADSL and FTTx makes the stepwise migration possible, where the existing canalisation can be reused and the fibre installation is closer to End Users.
ADSL and FTTx Topologies Central Office Street Cabinet Access Unit End users

Copper Fiber

ADSL FTTC FTTB FTTH

Copper Fibre

Page 3

ITG

PON and AON

Technical View Passive Optical Networks (PON) and Active Optical Networks (AON) are connected by optical cables, but with different passive/active equipments and topologies.
Passive Optical Network
Splitter
ONT ONT

Active Optical Network

Switch or Router
ONT ONT ONT ODF

OLT

ODF

ONT

Core Switch

ONT

Central Office

ONT

Central Office
ONT

GPON: ITU-T G.984.x EPON (10G-EPON): IEEE 802.3ah (802.3av) Typical bit rate 1.25Gbps up, and 2.5Gbps down shared by users Point-to-Multipoint (PMP): Split ratio 1:32/64 centralized or distributed split OPEX friendly, such as low power consumption
Page 4

IEEE 802.3 with layer 3 routing Support 100/1000Mbps as well as 10Gbps AON can be realized via: Active Ethernet (with switch/router) or P2P Uses low cost equipment (especially at customer premises) Require more fibres than PONs

ITG

Dynamic Migration Planning

Strategy and optimization analysis Based on the current status, the optimal migration path can be found, subject to one/multi-steps migration strategy and optimisation constraints.
Migration Analysis Migration matrix

G
FTTB FTTC
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

A
0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1

C
0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1

B
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1

H
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

H
ADSL

Five migration steps: Greenfield (G), ADSL (A), FTTC (C), FTTB (B), FTTH (H) 1 (or 0): status selected (or unselected)
Example 01011: ADSL->FTTB->FTTH

Green Field

Time period is the sum of holding time at all steps Minimize the object (cost) function, subject to CAPEX, OPEX, revenue, time schedule
Page 5

ITG

Migration Planning Tool

Overview A planning tool based on MS-Excel and VBA is developed to optimise the migration path, subject to CAPEX, OPEX, revenue, and time schedule.
Structure Characteristics Main modules CAPEX & OPEX: cost modelling Time schedule: optimisation constraint Revenue: influences the migration path Optimiser: finds the optimal path Input Technology: concepts, infrastructure and hardware implementation Market information: take rate, price book, revenues, general information Platform MS-Office for cost modelling VBA for optimising the migration path

tI ke ar M

Te ch no lo gy

CAPEX & OPEX

at m or nf

Migration Optimiser

n io

Time Schedule

Revenue

MS Office + VBA

Page 6

ITG

Scenarios and Sensitive Parameter Study

Multi-dimensional optimisation Sensitive parameters play an important role in finding an optimal migration path and holding time, which make the optimisation process challenging.
Sensitive Parameter Study with Migration Planning Tool Capital Expenditure
Purchase of land and building Network infrastructure Network installation Network software Customer premise equipment Project management

Year

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
A C

1
1

C
Time Schedule

CAPEX
1

B Revenue H A C B
Operational network planning Pricing and billing Service provision, Marketing

0
5

A B

Optimiser

5 1 0 1

OPEX
Infrastructure renting cost Energy consumption cost Reparation cost

Operational Expenditure
Page 7

ITG

Case study
Dense Urban, Urban, and Rural The CAPEX for rural areas is generally higher than dense urban or urban areas with selected fixed technologies, where three scenarios come from different countries.
CAPEX per Subscriber for Dense Urban, Urban, Rural

Cost unit / subscriber

4.500 4.000 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0

ADSL FTTC-G FTTB-G FTTH-G FTTC-A FTTB-A FTTH-A Dense Urban Urban Rural

Page 8

ITG

Conclusions
The study involved a comprehensive set of methods, such as technology- and costmodelling, and migration strategy, to find the optimal migration path to FTTH.
Current Development Status CAPEX and OPEX models of xDSL/FTTx Study on Green field, xDSL/FTTx migration to FTTH Comparison between GPON and AON Analysis and implementation of dynamic migration planning strategy Sensitive parameter study A tool based on MS Excel with VBA for a challenging optimization problem Potential Extensions This cost model can be further extended to other types of network, such as core network, wireless network, etc. Migration planning strategy can be applied for other migration problem or projects MS Excel with VBA can enable us to solve some complicated non-linear optimization problems

Page 9

ITG

This Document
Author(s) This document was written by telecommunications technology consultants at Detecon International GmbH.

For additional information please contact

Rong Zhao Detecon International GmbH Oberkasseler Str. 2 53227 Bonn (Germany)

Integrated management and technology consulting worldwide

Page 10

Phone: +49 228 700 2941 Fax: +49 228 700 2107 Mobile: +49 170 227 6103 e-Mail: Rong.Zhao@detecon.com

ITG