DAILY NEWSLETTER OF ESSENTIAL

Sunday, October 21, 2012

MARKET WEATHER INFORMATION

Sunday Evening Forecast Newsle er

QT Weather
weather at a glance
Global winter wheat issues U.S Plains drought lingers W Aust/S Arg/FSU crops suffer

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Extremes abound

Wheat Near and Far

According to Eric D. Luebehusen, a meteorologist at the Agriculture Departments Office of the Chief Economist, Sixty-eight percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop is in drought. More than a third of the crop had emerged, but in Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota, the emergence of the crop was running well below average.

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Drought Monitor Oct 16

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It is not just the Central High Plains of the U.S. that has wheat issues. The FSU, Australia and Argentina are having their problems, too. In the U.S, 58% of the High Plains acreage is under extreme and exceptional drought (red/brown above). 68% of the entire crop is seeing drought. In Australia, W Australia has see drought and yield reductions of their wheat crop of at least 20-25%. In the FSU and Ukraine, a grain embargo is awaiting and on-going drought limits fall moisture with no end in sight. In Argentina, wheat acreage is sub-par and severe weather and persistent moisture is taking its toll.

Todays weather maps

1/2 of Western Australias wheat crop is showing worse (brown) crop condition than last year, based on satellite and ground truthing (Oct 20).

About Allen Motew

Allen Motew has been an expert weather analyst for more than 35 years. With a Seal of Approval for Broadcasters from the American Meteorological Society, Allen specializes in global weather prediction, synoptic scale and mesonet analysis, and severe weather events. He is trained in forecasting hurricanes, tropical cyclones and international weather events for government and private industry interests from around the globe. A Chicago native, Allen broadcasts his local, domestic and international commodity weather forecasts from the Chicago

Reduced acreage, too much water and the worst flooding in 50 years in spots is limiting Argentinas wheat production. Buenos Aires (below) grows 58% of Argentinas wheat (below). Buenos Aires Crop Health

U.S Daily Soil Moisture Ranking Oct 20

Soil moisture across the C and N Plains shows the widespread dryness for the nations Plains winter wheat crop. Nebraska, South Dakota, W Kansas, E Colorado and parts of Oklahoma are still at 20% with 1-10% (dark red) in many western areas.

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October has not been a good month across the Ukraine and S and W FSU with stressed crop regions stretching for thousands of miles (reds). Much of Russias Southern District winter wheat is severely stressed as are parts of the Ukraine (red above). Russias Southern District grows 13 million tons of winter wheat, 42% of Russias annual winter production.

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Russias parched Southern district will see little rainfall relief over the next ten days (left).

Precipitation Over the Next 10 days.

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In similar fashion to the U.S. Plains, Russias Southern District is also experiencing drier and warmer than normal weather. The U.S Plains will soon drop into the deep freeze (late in the week) with limited near term moisture (left) after being 15-25 degrees F above normal in temperature. Precipitation Over the Next 10 days.

Allen Motew