Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
ACC
Performance Highlights
Quarterly results (Standalone)
Y/E Dec. (` cr) Net sales Operating profit OPM (%) Rep Net profit
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
2QCY2012 % chg qoq 2,778 688 24.8 418 (12.0) (32.5) (578)bp (40.5) 3QCY2011 2,150 319 14.8 168 % chg yoy 13.7 45.5 415bp 48.4
`1,408 -
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Cement 26,438 (1,997) 0.8 1515/1083 45,981 10 18,682 5,684 ACC.BO ACC@IN
ACCs 3QCY2012 net profit rose by a strong 48.4% yoy to `249cr, beating our estimate of a 37% yoy growth. The companys strong performance was on account of a 19.8% yoy growth in its realizations. However, volume degrowth of 5.1% yoy for the quarter is a disappointment. For 9MFY2012 the companys volume growth has been marginal at 2.2%. OPM up 415bp yoy at 19.0%: ACCs standalone top-line rose by 13.7% yoy to `2,445cr, aided by a strong 19.8% yoy growth in realization to `4,431/tonne. However, dispatches were down 5.1% yoy as the company was affected by a muted demand scenario in south India. The strong improvement in realization resulted in a 415bp yoy expansion in OPM despite the increase in operating costs. The companys per tonne operating cost was higher by 9.7% on a yoy basis. Freight and power & fuel costs were higher by 8.8% and 8.1% yoy respectively. Outlook and valuation: We expect ACC to register a 13.9% yoy growth in its top-line over CY2011-13E. The bottom-line is expected to post a CAGR of 8.5%. At the current levels, the stock is trading at an EV/tonne of US$130 on CY2013E capacity, which we believe is fair. Hence, we continue to remain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 50.3 10.6 20.0 19.1
3m 8.1 11.5
V Srinivasan
022-39357800 Ext 6831 v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com
Performance highlights
Robust top-line growth, led by better realization
ACC reported a strong top-line performance during 3QCY2012 primarily on account of improved realization as volume declined by 5.1% on a yoy basis. During the quarter, ACCs realization rose strongly by 17.3% yoy to `4,431/tonne.
3QCY12 2QCY12 3QCY11 yoy chg (%) qoq chg (%) 4,527 661 1049 903 942 806 4,591 638 998 949 846 1076 3,779 735 971 830 838 387 19.8 (10.0) 8.1 8.8 12.4 107.9 (1.4) 3.6 5.1 (4.9) 11.4 (25.1)
Investment rationale
Favorable capacity location to augur well for ACC
Around 51% of ACC's total capacity is located in states where either cement supply is less than cement demand or, if it is more, excess can economically be supplied to nearby supply-deficit states. Hence, all such capacities can rationally achieve higher capacity utilization. Even its entire south India plant capacity is in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, where the demand-supply dynamics are far better than that in Andhra Pradesh.
Higher fuel availability for CPPs leading to lower power and fuel costs
Going ahead, we expect the power and fuel cost to be lower for the company, as it currently has 85% self sufficiency in its power requirement with a 361MW captive power plant (CPP) and access to the highest coal linkage in the industry along with few captive coal blocks.
Revised estimates CY12E 30 4,449 994 966 CY13E 30 4,649 1,018 1,001 30
CY12E Earlier
10,802 8,631 2,332 529 92 1,541 432 1,445
Revised
10,923 8,731 2,353 529 92 1,653 496 1,492
Earlier
12,256 9,782 2,635 543 86 2,208 662 1,546
Revised
12,253 9,794 2,621 543 86 2,230 669 1,561
Var. (%)
(0.0) 0.1 (0.5) 1.0 1.0 1.0
$100
$120
$140
$160
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Y/E December; ^ Computed on TTM basis;#Y/E June
Company Background
In 2005, ACC was acquired by the world's second largest cement company, Holcim. Currently, the Holcim Group in India (ACC and Ambuja Cements taken together) has the largest cement capacity in the country (57mtpa). ACC has a standalone total capacity of 30mtpa, with 16 cement plants spread across the country. Similar to UltraTech, the company is also a pan-India player but with a southern inclination (36% of its total capacity is in south as against 22% in north, 22% in east and northeast, 17% in central and 4% in west).
980 1,653
Key ratios
Y/E Dec. Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis (%) EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) (0.2) (0.7) 36.0 (0.2) (0.5) 27.3 (0.3) (1.0) 25.0 (0.3) (1.2) 14.9 (0.3) (1.1) 19.8 (0.4) (1.1) 24.1 1.3 38 15 159 (40) 1.3 35 11 193 (57) 1.1 39 9 203 (81) 1.1 38 8 175 (69) 1.1 39 9 157 (55) 1.2 39.6 9.4 147.7 (47.8) 26.9 55.4 26.7 36.3 90.8 29.4 19.9 49.8 17.9 18.6 37.9 19.4 21.6 41.4 20.0 22.8 49.9 19.2 19.8 70.7 2.0 27.3 28.1 70.0 1.8 35.1 17.8 76.6 1.6 21.4 15.0 86.0 1.8 23.8 16.5 70.0 2.0 23.2 16.7 70.0 2.1 25.0 64.6 64.6 82.8 20.0 262.3 85.5 85.5 103.7 23.0 320.1 59.6 59.6 80.5 30.5 344.2 70.5 70.5 95.8 28.0 382.7 79.4 79.4 89.7 30.1 409.3 83.1 83.1 112.0 32.9 454.2 21.8 17.0 5.4 1.4 3.3 13.9 4.2 16.5 13.6 4.4 1.6 2.9 8.7 3.3 23.6 17.5 4.1 2.2 3.0 12.7 3.1 20.0 14.7 3.7 2.0 2.5 12.4 2.9 17.7 15.7 3.4 2.1 2.1 9.8 2.7 17.0 12.6 3.1 2.3 1.8 8.4 2.3 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12E CY13E
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
ACC No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
10