October 22, 2012 To: Interested Parties Fr: John Anzalone, Anzalone Liszt Research Re: Summary of Polling

in Arizona Senate Race _______________________________________________________________________ Confirming the trends in recent public polling, internal polling in Arizona finds that former Surgeon General Richard Carmona has pulled into the lead in the race for U.S. Senate. Carmona leads Congressman Jeff Flake 45% - 41%, with Libertarian candidate Marc Victor taking 5% of the vote. This is a net 5-point shift from two weeks ago when the race was virtually tied, 43% Carmona 44% Flake. Carmonas personal popularity is stronger than Flakes with all voters, including Independents. Carmona leads Flake in Senate head-to-head Over the last two weeks, Carmona has moved from a tied race (43% Carmona 44% Flake) to a 4-point lead, 45% - 41%. Libertarian candidate Marc Victor currently takes 5% of the vote. Carmona leads in the Tucson media market 53% - 34%, and has a 1-point lead in the Phoenix market, 44% - 43%. More specifically, Carmona leads Flake in Maricopa County 45% - 42%. Among registered Independents, Carmona leads 47% - 33%. Carmona also has strong crossover appeal, pulling 18% of registered Republicans a 4-point increase from two weeks ago.

Carmonas personal popularity is stronger than Flakes Carmonas personal popularity stands at a net-favorable 42% favorable 34% unfavorable. He enjoys solid popularity with registered Independents, 43% favorable 30% unfavorable. Jeff Flakes personal popularity is mixed, 41% favorable 41% unfavorable. Flake is underwater with Hispanic voters, 28% favorable 49% unfavorable. Flakes standing is also net-negative with registered Independents, 35% favorable 43% unfavorable.

Flakes attacks are backfiring Flakes most recent personal attack ad featuring a former colleague falsely accusing Carmona of misdeeds has appeared to backfire. Not only has Flakes unfavorable rating increased since he began airing those attacks but based on what voters have seen from Flake in the last two weeks twice as many voters say their opinions of the Congressman have become less favorable (24%) than more favorable (10%). Half of voters (50%) are familiar with Jeff Flakes personal attacks on Richard Carmona, but among those who have heard them, nearly 60% of believe it is just dirty politics (including 67% of Independents), while only 23% think his attacks are believable.

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=800 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 voters in Arizona. Interviews were conducted between October 17-21, 2012 and included bilingual interviews among Hispanic voters, and 20% of all interviews conducted via cell phone. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is +/- 3.5% with a 95% confidence level.