China's Cyber-Strategy Author(s): Nina Hachigian Reviewed work(s): Source: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 80, No. 2 (Mar. - Apr.

, 2001), pp. 118-133 Published by: Council on Foreign Relations Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20050069 . Accessed: 12/10/2012 09:20
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Chinas

Cyber-Strategy Nina Hachigian

DANGEROUS

LIAISON

Often

suitors, China has fallen in love with the Internet. Not only is the Chinese Communist Party (ccp) hailing the Internet's vast commercial potential, but it is also successfully exerting state control over the Chinese Web and its use. an network would that shift power unregulated Recognizing an extensive forum for discussion state to citizens from the by providing care to prevent this commercial and collaboration, Beijing has taken a over victory gold mine from becoming political quicksand. But cyber cannot be decisive, because the Internet cannot deliver its full space commercial benefits under strict political control. Itwill be some time, however, before the Internet becomes a political threat in China. In the near term, the Internet may in fact strengthen the party. The ccp's popularity now so depends on economic growth it.And their that its leaders are safer with the Internet than without three-part

restrained

in its enthusiasm

forWestern

a strategy for maintaining authority in networked society? economic growth and some personal freedoms, managing by providing its potential?will the Internet's risks, and harnessing be effective for some time. The power shifts wrought by the Internet will surface or an economic a future China political crisis in clearly only during the Internet is far more pervasive. At that time, the Internet where and could be the linchpin to a successful challenge will fuel discontent to party rule.
at the Pacific Council on Interna

Nina

Hachigian

is Senior Fellow

tional Policy the National Foreign

From 1998 to 1999 she served on the staff of in Los Angeles. on and from 1999 to 2000 was a Council Security Council International Affairs Fellow.

Relations

[us]

Chinas Cyber-Strategy
LOVE AT FIRST SITE

later than did most developed to the state-affiliated nations, but it is quickly catching up. According China Internet Network Information Center, China's on-line popu lation has mushroomed from fewer than one million users in 1997 to some more than 22 million today, and predict that number will rise to more 120 million than Protocol by 2004. Wireless Application China Internet could rapidly boost the on-line technology population by the Internet to China's nearly 70 million cellular phone users; bringing to the 100 million connections cable TV customers are through cable also currently in trials. (wap) As wearing in the United ".com" in China have been States and Europe, companies their names as a badge of (or ".com.cn") behind

embraced

the

modernity. Although theChinese Web

is still relatively small (30,000

sites, according to some official estimates), more than half a million domain names are registered, and new sites come on-line continuously, as diverse and as that on the offering content nearly unpredictable In Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong, Web Web. English-language related advertising plasters every visible surface: buses, billboards, and stadium walls. And Internet caf?s flourish in all the major cities. tomany Western media Contrary portrayals, factions of the Chinese at the central, and local levels are actually government provincial, tout media encouraging much of this activity. The ccp-controlled the Internet, and leaders routinely emphasize the importance of the
"knowledge economy."

the government practices what it preaches. The "Government On-line" initiative, launched in 1998, aimed to ensure that 80 percent of all government and national?had sites by Web agencies?local the end of 2000. The Ministry of Information Industry (mii), China's network has insisted that the major telecom powerful regulator, state-owned China Telecom, lower its access charges, which provider, And

have dropped to less than a third of 1997 prices. China Telecom

is

new lines each month to meet the also adding two million surging demand for network access. Moreover, officials are encouraging the competing state-owned telecommunications providers, China Unicorn,

China Mobile, China Netcom, JiTong, andChina Railway Telecom,

FOREIGN AFFAIRS March/April 2001 [119]

Nina to build their own networks. low-cost homes firms.

Hachigian technology parks and Beijing offers tax

Government-funded start-ups,

provide breaks for high-tech

for Internet

THE

ALLURE

the risks, is the government Why, given the political promoting in 1978, when, in leading China's Internet? Its decision originated West, Deng Xiaoping opening to the replaced ideology with economic as the cornerstone of future party legitimacy. Since then, growth Western influences weakened, the higher quality of life in other countries. The continued power of the on its ccp thus to ability improve standards of living. depends heavily the Internet's impact on American, China's leaders have witnessed economies and realize that no other and other Asian European, future. As the country's economic model offers a more promising soon to be accelerated to the grows, exposure by global economy have multiplied, and growing numbers the grip of communist dogma has of citizens have learned about

membership
businesses must

in theWorld

Trade Organization

(wto), Chinese

to stay embrace new technologies competitive. simply if not wired, risk being information need access to market and, They Internet-based shut out of the increasingly supply chains of foreign as American retail giant Wal-Mart. The Internet sector buyers such to attract valuable foreign also promises capital and accompanying on companies technology. Initial public offerings (ipos) of Chinese Web Nasdaq raised more than $400 million between July 1999 and July 2000, recent market volatility has slowed this trend. The potential though are also industries once efficiencies of e-commerce compelling. And in China, such as the travel industry, are devel practically nonexistent oping directly on-line. the wisdom evidence only reinforces So far, then, the economic to welcome information the Internet. China's of China's decision (it) sector has been growing at three times the rate of the technology overall economy, and faster than any other industry. even state reform bloated the Internet will hopes Beijing has pushed soes toward owned enterprises (soes). The government sites that sell excess inventory and e-commerce, sponsoring Web
[120] FOREIGN AFFAIRS Volume80 No. 2

line Population
Internet users

22,000,000

(est.)

250

1,400 5,000 15,000 120'000

?i-1-1-Ii

1994

1996

1998

2000

Note: Numbers are end-of-year totals. Sources: China InternetNetwork Information Center, BDA China Ltd.

equipment. Beijing's "Enterprise On-line" in July 2000, aims to launched initiative, put seven million Chinese businesses, includ soes, on theWeb ing many by the end of 2002. The most formidable challenge will to small and the Internet be bringing medium-sized percent of China's companies?half enterprises?99 do not even own a computer. of which are also the it industry because they see an Officials encouraging to enrich both themselves and the state. Telecommuni opportunity cations revenues, which increased by more than 20 times in the 1990s, to the state. Money flowed almost exclusively from ipos of state state coffers as well. owned telecommunications providers pours into The success of China Unicorn's debut, which raised a record $4.9 billion on the Hong Kong China Telecom's by stock exchanges, may be dwarfed listing planned for later this year. official policy dictates a formal separation of regulators Though entities invest directly or indi from the regulated, many government it sector. New sites are announced state-invested Web rectly in the because seek government partnerships regularly. Private companies cover and make to pry it easier capital from they provide political
state-owned banks.

and New York

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Nina

Hachigian

Finally, the Internet is essential to realizing the leadership's?and to retake its proper world the Chinese for China people's?desire as amodern, advanced, powerful nation. As one senior gov standing ernment official put it, "we in the government a lot think we missed of the industrial revolution. And we don't want to miss this revolution."

China is determined not to be left behind by neighbors India, South

Korea japan, and Singapore, which it into their economies. are working diligently to integrate

SUCCESSFUL

COURTSHIP

the Internet affair will not jeopardize ccp rule. is not yet widely affordable or available. First, network technology more than one and a half percent of the Chinese Only slightly use the Internet, fewer than two percent own computers, population term, even have and only about ten percent in cities, Even telephones. are an access is slow. And accounts Internet expensive luxury and an anemic version of the Internet to wap technology will bring only cell phones, at least in the near future. the ccp's important, to working. The first goal is citizens' desires for economic leaders are wagering China's to list start-ups on the hoping has historically accompanied have shown that over surveys More strategy is three-part network-control ensure a pacified populace by meeting some growth and personal freedoms. that people buying their first cars or not tolerate the chaos that nasdaqw?II

In the

near

in fact, forced political transition. And 20 years since the Deng began empha the economy along with ideology, average Chinese have become sizing more concerned with their own families' and less interested well-being in politics. To nurture amarket economy the ccp must allow its citizens to the autonomy necessary expand private enterprise. These days, can work, travel, most and surf theWeb with speak privately, people In turn, this personal relative freedom. latitude may give citizens fewer incentives to challenge the government. is taking active steps to manage the potential Second, Beijing of the Internet. Many government entities are negative consequences the Internet defies the neat involved in Internet regulation. Because categories
[122]

that the Chinese

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bureaucracy
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needs

to assign problems
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to

Chinas Cyber-Strategy one or another (implicating security, the economy, society, department and culture) and because it is a potential source of revenue for ministries, a turf battle has grown among and within government bodies. The

of Internet, wireless, and cable technologies will coming convergence of the Internet also vary. such tensions. Perceptions only exacerbate the security forces view the Internet as a major threat. Predictably, Others prefer in government, to cultivate including members especially the industry, of the leadership, domestic players, would subject

to constraints.

These thicket Culture

are a growing squabbles producing intragovernmental of of regulations. To take just a few, last year the Ministry or video sites from selling audio barred foreign-invested Web

of Education of the Ministry required preauthorization products, education and and the State Press on-line schools and portals, Bureau demanded that book retailers obtain licenses to Publishing operate many substantial body of laws that has resulted? The are either never enforced, enforced or ac of which selectively, one another?is in conflict with inconsistent with China's on-line.

to promote the rule of law and creates a nebulous legal environment that scares off investors. But the uncoordinated rush to serve the control agenda: the resulting government's regulation does rules create the maximum possible scope of official authority.

tually stated desire

PROPHYLAXIS

nearly unlimited legal discretion allows it to take specific steps to manage the Internet's potential risks. to ensure a officials are working Foremost, large Chinese-language to Web with "safe" content. A physical measure they take is place blocks on some pornographic and political sites hosted overseas. these barriers have proven leaky, they remain useful in deterring Though Chinese
casual surfers.

The

government's

that the regime promotes the self-censorship among and domestic Internet content providers (icps) is the viewers see. Regulations primary way officials control what Chinese released in January 2000 prohibiting the on-line transmission of serve as a useful catchall for as do "state secrets" limiting content, However, individuals FOREIGN AFFAIRS-March/April2001 [123]

Nina Hachigian extensive regulations issued inOctober prohibiting state power, "disturbs social order," undermines content that subverts reunification efforts

with Taiwan, spreads rumors, "preaches the teachings of evil cults," distributes "salacious materials," slanders dispenses pornography, others, or harms the "honor" of China. On-line news is strictly corralled as well: November regulations emphasize

Beiiins: nlimor Content

has no Sense Of about Internet SO

^^

s*tesPolishing news must obtain special

may never generate their own con

licenses,

regulations, i- + r is selt-censorship
on the Web.

tent? anj insteadmay only republish stories &om official sources.

If aggressively enforced, Internet regula

tions
icp

uld span virtually the full breadth of

common

icps are aware that secu activity, and the can shut them down for some rity forces offense at any time. Thus they carefully comply with content standards so as not to draw the attention of authorities. "There are some issues

the government has no sense of humor about," one Web developer "andwe just stay away from those." Some sites hosting chat remarked, rooms to delete known as "big mamas" employ monitors explosive run software that deletes terms. The October content; others key a formalized that icps save content from regulations requirement their sites for 60 days to turn it over to investigators if asked. Well arrests reinforce self-censorship. publicized policy of regulating the Internet by encouraging government's icps to censor themselves is effective, as these icps largely Chinese the mainland China Web. Because they advertise in China, dominate are cater to mainland customers, praised in the traditional media, and more In their sites remain popular than those of offshore providers. to the in part to Intranet?created addition, connections China-only isolate users from spiritual pollution?are often cheaper. Two recent sites surveys showed that eight or nine of the ten most popular Web are mainland-based. among mainland Chinese own content. "Govern Beijing is also flooding the Internet with its on ment On-line" has put more than 3,000 government departments the Web, of all mainland giving the government nearly one-tenth sites. Even small rural counties maintain home pages to attract foreign investment. State funding of many commercial Web sites, including
[124] FOREIGN AFFAIRSVolume 80 No. 2

The

Chinas Cyber-Strategy those of official news agencies, ensures additional sanctioned content. dissidents Chinese claim they are regular targets of government on the Net, and e-mail could provide disinformation campaigns
officials a new channel to communicate nationalist or pro-ccp messages.

do sneak on-line, the ccp's subversive messages or contradict can traditional media help dilute and Asian them. For instance, despite ample evidence on Western news sites about Slobodan Milosevic's the Kosovars, aggression against that nato's the official press helped to persuade most Chinese 1998 innocent Serbs. campaign unfairly targeted bombing is also engaged in a delicate dance with foreign investors, Beijing the in-laws of the Internet marriage. On the one hand, foreign owner over business and allows state to authority migrate ship erodes profits abroad. On the other hand, the Internet industry is promising precisely some because it attracts economy-fueling foreign direct investment, to date, which is especially welcome because China lacks $150 million a tradition. venture-capital when Moreover, over tight control Not surprisingly, then, the government has tolerated foreign invest to ment but retains the at will. nullify arrangements regulatory power in icps has been officially prohibited, all foreign investment Though icps the ban was enforced only when foreign-invested Chinese applied to list themselves on for permission foreign stock exchanges. To obtain to go to restructure, but permission public, established portals had to flow to young firms. The October dollars continued regulations icps to obtain mii before striking deals permission specifically require with foreign investors. China has, however, pledged that once it accedes to the wto, it will allow foreign investment of up to 49 percent in services and 50 percent in "value added" "basic" telecommunications content. Internet Protectionist and services, impulses including will keep the parameters of investment security concerns, however, some time. muddy for

DOMESTIC

VIOLENCE

Along

and regulation, physical force and intimidation also play a continuing role in Internet management in China. Force both induces self-policing and backs up the regime's
FOREIGN AFFAIRS March/April 2001 [125]

with

self-censorship

Nina

Hachigian

the party. The strategy for those who openly challenge pacification can and others spiritual group Falun Gong organize by e-mail, but not make or at that does adherents invisible police checkpoints to beatings and imprisonment when they arrive to protest. impervious are also and honing their high-tech Security forces expanding are and training cyber-police, capabilities. All levels of government of Public Security (mps) "computer super experts report thatMinistry vision and monitoring units," based in every provincial capital and now number in the hundreds. The October most large cities, regulations isps (most of which are part of China Telecom to require anyway) account numbers, and the keep records of all subscribers' names, more phone numbers from which they dialed into the Internet. As as the fbi's Carnivore powerful e-mail filters such develop, police will be better equipped to detect subversive activity. But for now, because is too massive and anonymity remains easy, digital communication to rely on traditional and security forces tend investigative methods monitor on-line activity only after a suspect is targeted. usually Over the past three years, as Internet users have multiplied, cyber have stepped up their prosecution of Internet content violations. police activists, Falun Gong members, organizers, human-rights Democracy scholars, and other dissidents have been arrested for on-line crimes. In October, for example, writer Qi Yanchen was sentenced to a four-year prison term for "subversion" in his print and on-line articles advocating political reform. as well. operators Security forces find targets abroad Computer traced to the mps have attacked and crashed foreign Falun Gong Web then Taiwanese President Lee sites in several countries. And when on in 1999 that Taipei should deal with Beijing announced Teng-hui a "state-to-state" sites came basis, 20 Taiwanese government Web were under attack. Taiwanese military analysts claimed the hackers both Chinese civilians and People's Liberation Army specialists.

MARRIAGE

OF

CONVENIENCE

Although

to they recognize and try manage the risks of the Internet, serve an "officials in Beijing believe that adequately designed network will to first and foremost the interests of the central government," according
[126] FOREIGN AFFAIRS-Volume 80 No. 2

Chinas Cyber-Strategy a company that of Madeforchina, provides interactive marketing and consulting services to clients in China. Indeed, is using the Internet's infrastructure to improve the central government its own administrative control over provincial and local officials, and thus an open economy will over the economic growth that the Internet and meet this aim. generate. In 1994, it launched 13 "Golden Projects" to "Golden Card" will establish a national banking exchange to tie all banks a atm and credit card sys to the People's Bank of China, enable national tem, and provide Beijing with information about the activities of local branches. Premier Zhou Enlai recently urged government operatives to of "Golden Customs," which will automate speed up implementation a system customs imports, and "Golden Tax," procedures for maritime tax bureaus more accountable by electronically designed to make local tax records to the State Administration of connecting their value-added Taxation. Reports suggest that Beijing is also now investing in "Golden Shield," a computer network linking national and local police agencies nationwide. Even simple e-mail could help eliminate the once persistent were problem of provincial ministry offices claiming central directives lost in the mail. consultant Peter Lovelock

WILD

BRIDE

a network economy, these measures?fostering term, own content and punishing violators, mediating regulating Internet the network for government use?will enable ership, and harnessing on the Internet's economic benefits and to to Beijing both capitalize as control efforts are directed at counter its risks. As long political are to content and not on-line commercial activity, they unlikely of entrepreneurs and investors. But total the enthusiasm dampen is not control of today's vast, borderless, redundant cyber-architecture to possible. In the long run, therefore, the Internet has the potential aid those who would challenge the ccp. cannot direct how willful To a large degree, the Chinese government is largely effective surfers use the Internet. Although self-censorship cannot stop someone determined for mainland sites, the government to once connections explore cyberspace beyond China's borders. And are to theWeb blocks of foreign sites must be piecemeal permitted, In the near FOREIGN AFFAIRS March/April 2001 [127]

Nina Hachigian order, and without central control, in computers is like a train carrying around the world. The Web millions of passengers?scientists, porn stars, doctors, dissidents? cars. The the sitting randomly throughout only way to sort them is to stop the train, have inspectors climb aboard while everyone waits, and throw the undesirables off one by one.With more than four million two billion Web sites globally and some estimated individual Web most content is an pages in the world, blocking just the egregious task. Even during last year's crackdown on the Falun overwhelming a site carrying Falun Gong material remained Waco, Texas, Gong, in China. On a given day, "savetibet.org" accessible is blocked but is not. Comprehensive of the more than monitoring "freetibet.org" 20 million sent per is also unfeasible. e-mail messages day in China The best authorities can do is target certain individuals or keywords. to any destination, the Internet offers multiple Because paths surfers can circumvent the barriers even when the Chinese government does block individual sites. In 1999, a Chinese report on newspaper's how to use proxy servers for "faster" connections taught readers how servers allow access to blacklisted to reach banned material. (Proxy sites through available sites by laundering requests for blocked Web to in Beijing Internet caf?s are preconfigured ones.) Many computers on "innocent" use proxies. Furthermore, much illicit material is available is blocked, sites: articles from The New York Times, the site of which are carried on other mainstream U.S. sites that are not. Finally, people overseas can sites and from banned Web copy information always send it via e-mail into China. The more difficult problem of Internet management tional steps Beijing could take to control content would commercial Web to benefits sites hosted that the government outside China would is that the addi dampen the very access to access because information is stored without

hopes for. Forbidding sharply reduce China's

is critical to global market information and capital flows. Also, speed business, and blocks on sites slow down the network. Thus, the govern ment's 1996 attempt to build a massive firewall had to be abandoned since privacy of finan because it hobbled thewhole system. Furthermore, strict regulations on the is essential for e-commerce, cial information not have lasted use of long encryption software enacted in late 1999 could and were "reinterpreted" shortly after being introduced. The attributes of
[128] FOREIGN AFFAIRSVolume 80 No. 2

Chinas Cyber-Strategy that promote the Net privacy?improve the Internet commercial growth?speed, as a tool for noncommercial breadth, and purposes aswell.

FOR

BETTER

AND

FOR WORSE

These

will suddenly become both a field and a tool of battle.

as the Chinese days, economy expands and the political over the Internet does regime remains stable, the lack of total control not pose a critical problem for China's government. The vast majority surfers do not seek to make use of its subversive potential. But of Web to if Internet use continues And exists nonetheless. that potential or grow in China, and an economic political crisis occurs, the Internet The Net cannot create rebellious social forces, of course, but it can nurture and empower those that exist. In any nation, the Internet and exchange. lowers the costs of information retrieval, duplication,

is often impossibly expensive and information in China?where to group communication changes largely unestablished?the rights the information age will be seismic. Control over informa wrought by tion will slowly shift from the state to networked citizens, and virtual at once. to communicate public spaces will allow many The Internet's ability to provide a flood of new ideas makes it the most source of power, one to a formidable key practiced by challenge yet Chinese governments for centuries: the power to shape public opinion in But the ccp's political legitimacy. The Internet continues the pluralizing process that other mass media?radio, advances These technological TV, phones, and fax machines?started. more difficult to control it have all been slowly making public discourse a consistent state and a and thought through barrage of propaganda that leads citizens complete intolerance of alternative viewpoints. the Internet offers probing More readily than previous technologies, that the ccp finds viewers access to particular kinds of information and scholarly censored, both dissident messages threatening. Though critical of the regime increasingly find at least a temporary material home inWeb bulletin boards. More and on-line pages, e-mails, more "subversive" ideas are developing and offering publications is aware of the Internet's broad electronic editions. The government a cast effect: for example, it did not censure Li Shenzhi, respected
FOREIGN AFFAIRS March/April 2001 [129]

away

to accept

Nina

Hachigian

intellectual, when he published a critical paper in an academic journal; it took action only after the paper appeared on-line. Even the spread of simple news stories can be problematic for the local tales of scandal are now party. Once-obscure nationally known be cause mainland portals pull interesting stories from the only sanctioned source: local, official Information about events affecting newspapers. news sites. China is also readily available on Asian andWestern Many in China were able to read the text of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's conciliatory inaugural speech, which did not appear in any official publication, on the Internet. Even excerpts from The Tiananmen Papers, which describe the debate among China's leaders over how to the pro-democracy on in 1989, were demonstrations posted on-line bulletin boards and discussed in chat rooms inChina within days, of their release in the United States. An Associated Press perhaps hours, surfer's posting?later deleted?which story quoted one Chinese Web are true or not, the Tiananmen said, "To know whether Papers just look at them on an overseas Web site and judge for yourself." address Internet offers powerful communication channels through which ideas can spread and citizens can mobilize more toward easily. Hostility the government collects and builds in public cyberspace as it cannot in In chat rooms, many Chinese denounced physical China. Beijing's candidate in attempts to reduce support for the more pro-independence 2000 Taiwan the March elections as either too strong or not strong of China's environmental enough. Criticism policy and of corrupt officials also appears regularly in the chat room of the official People's Daily and on university bulletin boards on-line. On-line conversations can be very politically charged, most likely because censors are overwhelmed and unable to delete sensitive content quickly enough. Yet police rarely shut down such chat rooms?perhaps because they offer officials who lack the benefit of a free media away to discover what citizens are think The or because a sanctioned ing they give elites place for fairly free speech. The anonymous, communication fast, and relatively inexpensive an allowed by the Internet places tool in the hands of unprecedented was critical the few Chinese now dedicated to political change. E-mail to the China Democracy growth of the now-outlawed Party, for exam can ple. Today, anyone in Beijing anonymously buy a prepaid Internet card and log inwith a laptop or surf anonymously at an Internet caf?,
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China's Cyber-Strategy e-mail under an assumed name. and use hard-to-trace, Web-based Readily available "anonymizer" and encryption programs offer addi can E-mails tional protection. replace dangerous personal meetings of informa the instant dissemination among dissenters. Furthermore, tion about a political event to thousands of people can build momentum ever could. behind a cause faster than past media The borderless nature of Internet technology can also place activists out of the reach of Chinese law enforcement. Many have noted that itsApril 25,1999, silent protest of 10,000 the Falun Gong organized in front of Beijing's Zhongnanhai leadership compound people e-mail, by surprise. Less taking authorities completely as crucial, the sect's leaders, now in New York, still reported, but just to reporters in Beijing. Activists organize protests and send e-mail alerts at the dissident journals The Tunnel ana VIP Reference underground of thousands of Chinese e-mail forward their reports to hundreds through from the safety of the United States. to In addition facilitating political dissidence, Internet communica to cultivate China's nascent civil tion may be slowly helping society. Statistics about this trend are unavailable, but it is clear that Chinas small number of advocacy groups are increasingly plugging into the network of activists thriving on the Web. Those with niche or discouraged interests, such as the gay community, also coalesce through specialized Web pages and discussion groups. Eventually, these groups, even if informal or to serve as to government counterpoints apolitical, may begin authority. eco to the the Internet contributes Finally, people's growing it sector. nomic from the state by expanding the independence never mind are Salaries high for the average dot-com employee, the few millionaire entrepreneurs. accounts

THE

BREAKUP

the Internet's effects will not threaten the ccp's term, tactics are effective, because power because the party's management a small of the population is on-line, and because few only proportion care to eco challenge the ruling regime during the present period of nomic and political stability. But perhaps five years hence, when one in ten Chinese citizens will have Internet access and virtually everyone Inthenear FOREIGN AFFAIRS March/April 2001 [131]

Nina Hachigian will an account, the shift in information control ccp rule. to undermine and communication will have the potential on government to new ideas, new actions, and perspectives Exposure events in China will have grown. Economic from the independence state will have increased. Connections citizens will have between or economic A political crisis in this wired China of the multiplied. future would unfold differently than itwould today. a scenario. The economy hums along, and Consider hypothetical businesses Internet flourish. The reaches ten private eventually percent of the population. As always, officials at every level take bites of everyone's fortune through taxes, corruption, excessive regulations, Then the economy dives. Perhaps a crisis and local protectionism. over Taiwan or in succession shakes people's confidence leadership a bank run. Panic the regime and prompts and spreads quickly, measures fail to contain the damage. government on the economy?now To avoid further disrupting heavily reliant do not shut down the Internet. electronic communication?authorities know someone with Concerned sites by the millions and exchange citizens visit foreign Web cannot obscure the e-mails with the diaspora and each other. Officials truth of events as they once could, and citizens learn about the depth and the hardship pervading the of the crisis, its mismanagement, as are emboldened not when country. They they learn, they could resentment of the before, that many others share their long-standing now exacerbated because financial tolls hit harder. With government, on the Internet, encouragement and from dissidents easy organizing shared frustration and anger others abroad, and a sensed opportunity, turn to protest. Peasants and workers, who already stage regular

in the thousands, coordinate their efforts and join elites. protests the government responds to those demonstrations Citizens monitor how see as not during the protests in Tiananmen Square; they they could and video clips posted by ordinary Chinese. News about photographs a violent crackdown travels quickly, triggering protests that eventually grow so large that the party cannot contain them. This scenario does not describe a certain future and may sound far fetched working. unleash are the party's containment strategies currently But it illustrates how the Internet could, during a crisis, in away never before possible. discontent because
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Chinas Cyber-Strategy
RESTRAINING ORDER

Although ernment

of the ccp may advocate action, the U.S. gov should do nothing to boost the pluralizing potential of the Internet in China. The flip side of China's quandary over the Internet is the United the Internet is a commercial States' fortune?because

critics

vehicle, U.S. and other foreign businesses will push for its expansion in China without added incentives. And any suspicion that the United States wants to use the Internet in China for political gain or isworking to thwart Chinese domestic government controls will feed conspiracy theories about aU.S. cyber-invasion and generate mistrust. Washington should therefore only continue to do what it is doing already: pushing for high ceilings on foreign investment, assisting in the implementation of WTO rules, and encouraging China to cooperate with the international of Internet regulatory standards. development A useful measure that a private group could undertake would be to sponsor an Internet commission made up of American, Chinese, and other foreign regulators, and experts. industry representatives, The commission would discuss how to regulate (or, more important, not a regulate) the Internet industry in way that creates an environ ment supportive of rapid Internet growth and compliant with wto rules. Its sessions should be framed asmutual forums, problem-solving not as lectures to the Chinese. The United States should not harbor hopes for Internet-led democ a crisis that ratization in China. Even if the Internet does amplify even a more tolerant leads to the demise of the ccp, democracy?or or not a guaranteed in a country with autocracy?is likely outcome no party. organized opposition or economic In sum, until a serious political crisis galvanizes on a sentiment the ccp leadership's three antiparty large scale, of pacifying the populace, managing the negative strategy pronged influences of the Internet, and yoking the power of networking will ccp maintain If those societal pressures do the authority. develop, Internet will unleash them in away never before possible. But perhaps ccp will forestall that the the real political eventuality by introducing not the Internet, can offer.? reform that only it, and

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