Marconi Oecd Composite Leading Indicators

Paris, 8 October 2012
OECD Composite Leading Indicators

News Release
OECD composite leading indicators point to weakening growth in most major

economies
Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to
trend, show that most major economies will continue to see weakening growth in the coming quarters.
The CLIs for the United States and Japan continue to show signs of moderating growth while in Canada
the CLI points to weak growth.
In Germany, France, Italy and the Euro Area as a whole, the CLIs point to continued weakening growth.
In China, the CLI points to soft growth, but tentative signs are emerging that the recent deterioration in the
short-term outlook may have stabilised. In India and Russia, the CLIs continue to point to weak growth.
The CLIs for the United Kingdom and Brazil continue to point to a pick-up in growth.
Moderating growth in the OECD area
Stabilizing growth in China

106
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Moderating growth in the United States
Continued weakening growth in the Euro area
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in
economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term trend of
economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be
reversed.
Methodological Notes:
The CLI methodological notes are available at: www.oecd.org/std/leadingindicatorsandtendencysurveys/44728410.pdf
Access data:
CLI data is available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI
Contacts:
For further information journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on
(33) 1 45 24 97 00 or e-mail news.contact@oecd.org.
For technical questions contact stat.contact@oecd.org
Next release: 12 November 2012

News Release
Moderating growth in Japan
Continued weakening growth in France
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Continued weakening growth in Germany
Continued weakening growth in Italy
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Pick up in growth in the United Kingdom
Pick up in growth in Brazil
104
106
102
104
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Weak growth in Canada
Continued weak growth in India
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Continued weak growth in Russia

108
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The graphs show country specific composite leading indicators

(CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in
economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately
six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term
trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed
turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional
turning-points that may be reversed.

News Release
Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators**

Ratio to trend, amplitude
adjusted
Month on Month change
Year on
Year
change
(%)
(%)
(long term average =100)

2012
2012
Growth cycle outlook
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Latest
month
OECD Area
100.4
100.3
100.2
100.2
100.1
-0.02
-0.05
-0.08
-0.08
-0.07
-0.12
moderating growth
Euro Area
99.7
99.7
99.6
99.5
99.4
-0.05
-0.08
-0.09
-0.10
-0.10
-1.18
weakening growth
Major Five Asia*
99.6
99.4
99.3
99.3
99.2
-0.15
-0.13
-0.10
-0.08
-0.06
-0.93
weak growth
Major Seven
100.5
100.4
100.3
100.2
100.1
-0.03
-0.08
-0.10
-0.10
-0.08
-0.14
moderating growth
Canada
99.8
99.7
99.6
99.6
99.6
-0.02
-0.06
-0.07
-0.06
-0.03
-0.45
weak growth
France
99.8
99.7
99.6
99.6
99.5
-0.05
-0.05
-0.06
-0.08
-0.10
-1.09
weakening growth
Japan
100.8
100.7
100.5
100.4
100.3
-0.05
-0.11
-0.14
-0.15
-0.14
-0.09
moderating growth
Germany
99.8
99.6
99.4
99.1
98.9
-0.07
-0.15
-0.22
-0.26
-0.25
-1.84
weakening growth
Italy
99.2
99.0
98.9
98.9
98.8
-0.19
-0.16
-0.11
-0.07
-0.04
-2.23
weakening growth
United Kingdom
99.7
99.8
99.9
100.0
100.1
0.08
0.08
0.10
0.13
0.13
0.01
growth picking up
United States
100.9
100.8
100.7
100.6
100.5
-0.01
-0.08
-0.11
-0.10
-0.06
0.59
moderating growth
Brazil
98.8
98.9
99.1
99.3
99.5
0.18
0.13
0.15
0.18
0.19
0.59
growth picking up
China
99.6
99.4
99.4
99.4
99.4
-0.17
-0.12
-0.05
0.00
0.01
-1.23
stabilizing growth
India
98.3
98.1
97.8
97.6
97.5
-0.26
-0.26
-0.24
-0.21
-0.16
-1.50
weak growth
Russia
101.1
100.3
99.6
99.1
98.8
-0.60
-0.73
-0.69
-0.51
-0.30
-3.04
weak growth
* China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.

**CLI data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at:
http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI

Marconi Oecd Composite Leading Indicators

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Paris, 8 October 2012

OECD Composite Leading Indicators

OECD composite leading indicators point to weakening growth in most major

Stabilizing growth in China

Moderating growth in the United States

Continued weakening growth in the Euro area

Paris, 8 October 2012

Moderating growth in Japan

Continued weakening growth in France

Continued weakening growth in Germany

Continued weakening growth in Italy

Pick up in growth in the United Kingdom

Pick up in growth in Brazil

Weak growth in Canada

Continued weak growth in India

Continued weak growth in Russia

The graphs show country specific composite leading indicators

Paris, 8 October 2012

Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators**

Month on Month change

(long term average =100)

Growth cycle outlook

Major Five Asia*

* China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea.

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