Implications of Climate Change for Puerto Rico Caribbean Basin and the East and South Coastal Regions

of the U.S. Mainland

Risk Assessment Phase

A Long-term Planning Initiative
By Elas R. Gutirrez, Ph. D.

Table of Contents
1. 2.
2.1. 2.2. 2.3. 2.4.

Introduction............................................................................................................ 23 Global Warming and Climate Change.................................................................... 3

A Global Phenomenon.................................................................................................... 3 The Economic and Political Characteristics............................................................... 56 The Need for an Assessment of Risks.......................................................................... 77 The Target Region ........................................................................................................ 99

3.
3.1. 3.2.

Critical climate related Issues for coastal and island populations................... 1010
Adequate freshwater supplies .................................................................................. 1010 Public Health and Safety .......................................................................................... 1111
Severe Storms:...................................................................................................................1112 Landslides..........................................................................................................................1313 Health Hazards ..................................................................................................................1314 Caribbean Tropical Forests:...............................................................................................1415 Coral Reefs ........................................................................................................................1515

3.2.1. 3.2.2. 3.2.3.

3.3.

Island Ecosystems ..................................................................................................... 1414

3.3.1. 3.3.2.

4.
4.1. 4.2. 4.3. 4.4. 4.5.

The Project Components.................................................................................... 1617

Main Objective .......................................................................................................... 1617 Risk Assessment ........................................................................................................ 1617 Scope .......................................................................................................................... 1617 The Action Plan Dimension...................................................................................... 1718 Changing conditions and policy responses ............................................................. 1819

5. 6. 7. 8.

The Project's Work Plan.................................................................................... 1921 Project's Support Structure ............................................................................... 2021 Participants......................................................................................................... 2122 Strategic Alliances.............................................................................................. 2122

1. Introduction
The Graduate School of Planning (GSP) of the University of Puerto Rico (UPR), and the Public Policy Research Center (PPRC) of the former governor Rafael Hernndez Coln Library Foundation (RHCF), are jointly supporting a research and long-range planning initiative. The initiative focuses on the economic and social consequences associated with the process of climate change for the Caribbean Basin and the Southeastern coast of the US Mainland.
2

The GSP and the PPRC have chosen this subject matter as their research priority. The GSP has incorporated this decision as an integral part of its recently revised curriculum. The GSP has obtained a limited amount of seed money from the President of the UPR, as a start-up contribution to help raising the additional resources needed for a major research effort. The PPRC has identified this area as a critical and as yet neglected public policy subject matter with huge implications for the Caribbean and, in fact, for the hemisphere. Both institutions are currently engaged in organizing a series of activities to raise public awareness about the subject and, thus, help formulate policies that may become adopted by government and industry to foster adaptation and preparedness to changing environmental parameters. The very nature of climate change dictates that this initiative must be designed as an interdisciplinary and multi-institutional effort. This is the basic principle that must guide these efforts.

2. Global Warming and Climate Change

2.1. A Global Phenomenon There is an emerging consensus among members of the scientific community regarding the fact that the average temperature of planet Earth is showing an upward trend and that this trend has accelerated since 1960.

Chart 1

Increasing average temperatures correlate with the intensification of industrialization processes and with increasing consumption standards and patterns. This phenomenon is commonly referred to by the term "global warming". Global warming is associated with the effect that certain gaseous chemical compounds, generated by production and consumption processes, waste residues, effluviums derived from agriculture and cattle activities, and by the loss of tropical forests, have on average Earth temperatures.1 Industrialization has had the effect of producing an accumulation of gases in the atmosphere that act as a glass ceiling on the planet, thus allowing the sun's energy to penetrate but impeding its release. This produces what has been referred to as a "green-house" effect. The so-called "greenhouse effect" has the potential to trigger significant worldwide climate changes. Accumulation of carbon dioxide is the principal cause of increasing temperatures. There are, of course, other complications. Fluorohydrocarbons and methane gas have escaped to the atmosphere and large quantities
If the world stays on the present fossil fuel path, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are projected to reach twice preindustrial levels as soon as 2050 --and to raise the Earth's temperature 1 - 3.5 degrees Celsius (2 6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100. This is expected to bring more extreme climate events, including more destructive storms and flooding, as well as melting ice caps and rising sea levels. A new computer simulation by Britain's Hadley Center for Climate Change in late 1998 projected major reductions in food production in Africa and the United States as a result of climate change. The Hadley scientists also identify the potential for a "runaway" greenhouse effect after 2050 that could turn areas such as the Amazon and southern Europe into virtual deserts. 4
1

have accumulated over the poles. As a result, the thin ozone layer that protects the Earth from ultraviolet radiation has been punctured, especially over Antarctica. The damage already inflicted upon the Earth's ozone is one of most widely discussed effects of chemical pollution of the atmosphere. Facing the potential risks stemming from such portentous forces requires education and planning. Some geographic areas are especially vulnerable to some of the ensuing effects of a climate change One ominous hypothesis stemming from the global warming phenomenon suggests that, as a response to climate change, ocean levels will gradually rise, flooding coastal areas and infiltrating underground aquifers with salt water. This phenomenon would presumably be precipitated by a combination of these two causes, i.e., melting of polar ice caps and an increase in the temperature of the upper layers of the ocean waters. Rising water temperatures would result in a limited, but sufficient, expansion of ocean water volumes around the planet.

Even when the current sea level changes take place very slowly, tropical cyclonic activity could increase in frequency and in intensity, as a response to increasing ocean water temperatures. Recent hurricanes have demonstrated their enormous potential of physical destruction and social disturbance. Hugo, Andrew, Mitch and Floyd could be brushed aside as isolated events. But, if they are not, the region is facing a new reality fraught with danger and a definite need for long-term planning. 2.2. The Economic and Political Characteristics The science behind the greenhouse effect is well established. However, the scientific evidence behind the contributions

made by human-generated pollution is less so. Therefore, as a practical matter this complicates solutions and undermines the political will to take actions (Schelling, 1992). Global warming is a phenomenon that evolves slowly; the emissions and damages are widely separated in time. This forces a longer planning horizon and raises serious ethical questions about the appropriateness of standard cost-benefit analysis techniques (Cline, 1992; D'Arge, Schultze and Brookshire, 1982; Lind, 1995; Shelling, 1995). The control of human generated greenhouse gases is a global public good. International solutions must be sought, as unilateral approaches are unlikely to be sufficient. Yet international cooperation is difficult since nonparticipants cannot be excluded from the benefits of successful control. Nations can become 'free riders' by leaving control to others, an action that undermines international cooperative efforts (Barrett, 1990; Hoel, 1994). The benefits and costs of global warming will not be uniformly distributed across nations. Experts believe that the developing countries, especially island nations would tend to suffer most because of the vulnerability of their economies and the relative lack of adaptive strategies (Schelling, 1992; Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994). Yet these are not the nations that are currently emitting most of the greenhouse gases. Furthermore, depending upon the chosen approach, the burdens of controlling greenhouse gases will not fall equally either (Whalley and Wigle, 1991). The cost of being wrong is enormous. Most strategies for controlling global warming focus to no small extent on reduction in emission of gases from the combustion of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are currently the fuels of choice, and the modern economy has become heavily dependent on them. Forcing a rapid transition away from these fuels raises the specter of considerable economic disruption. On the other hand, failing to respond in a timely manner to the challenge of global warming could subject the planet to unprecedented ecological stresses. The consequences of these stresses can only be guessed at in part because many of the dynamic feedback effects which would be set in motion are simply not completely understood (Cline, 1992). The risks posed by global warming are not the kinds of risk normally captured effectively by traditional economic

analysis. In particular, the risks associated with climate change are poorly understood (even the likelihoods of various outcomes are difficult to discern), endogenous (in the sense that human actions affect the level of risk), collective (in the sense that climate change will affect large numbers of people in the same way) and irreversible (Chichilnisky and Heal, 1993). 2.3. The Need for an Assessment of Risks

Given the characteristics of global warming phenomena, preparedness and adaptation become crucial planning and public policy matters. For purposes of public policy, it is desirable to determine the range of economic damage that may be expected from global warming. If these damages are far smaller than the costs of mitigation and abatement then the case for preventive action is weak on grounds of traditional economic policy formation and must stand solely on ecological concerns. If instead the economic damages equal or exceed the costs of mitigation and abatement, preventive action is warranted on economic grounds alone, reinforcing the case for action on the basis on concern about ecological risk. The first phase of such planning and policy formation process is the assessment of potential damages. The two principal components of the assessment require identifying potential losses, estimating their economic and social values, and establishing probability estimates for these risks. The concept of alternative futures leads to a structure such as Figure 1. Any one of the possible routes may represent the actual course of events. Such a route is like a chain with a number of different links. It is appropriate to call such a sequence of events an event chain. The concept of an event chain is especially useful in the case at hand. In Figure 1, X stands for present climatic conditions. A1 and A2 represent alternative scenarios regarding alternative action matrices in view of probable change in future climatic conditions. For instance, A1 may represent a set of preventive and mitigating activities of a substantially higher degree of intensity than those contemplated by action matrix A2. Following this nomenclature, Y1|A1, Y2|A1, and Y3|A1 represent specific outcomes (losses) if (conditional to) scenario A1 (action matrix) is followed. On the other hand, Y1|A2, Y2|A2, and Y3|A2 represent specific outcomes (losses) if scenario A2 (action matrix) is followed. Figure 1

Y1|A1

A1

Y2|A1

Y3|A1
X

Y1|A2

A2

Y2|A2

Y3|A2

Present

Action

Future

The rational decision between the two alternative courses of action will depend on the estimated probabilities assigned to changes in climatic conditions and to the expected losses derived. The Caribbean Environment Program from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) has stated the following in reference to the subject matter. Before effective socioeconomic responses to climatic changes can be initiated, there is a need to reduce significantly the degree of uncertainty about the likelihood, extent and direction of such changes. The most vulnerable "system" in the socioeconomic and health sectors is the credibility of those making impact assessments. Governments and institutions will revert to procrastination as the most viable response to weak forecasting, rather than to improving information development and dissemination, risk spreading and diversification, or to reducing levels of fixed commitments. Some countries such as Costa Rica, for example, have already established new building setback laws for construction along the coasts; others, Florida, for example, have locally opted for massive beach replenishment programs. Most small island states, which numerically constitute a substantial fraction of governing units, do not have the financial resources or the technical expertise to develop appropriate socioeconomic responses to climate change. Probably the greatest single socioeconomic scenario that individual government must prepare for is a significant international migration of populations from highly vulnerable locales to areas where safety and the quality of life is deemed to be better. To prepare for such future change, a catalogue of institutional responses needs to be developed along with specification of conditions under which those responses should be implemented.2
UNEP: Ecosystem and Socioeconomic Response to Future Climatic Conditions in the Marine and Coastal Regions of the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas, and the Northeast Cost of South America. Prepared by: George A. Maul, Chairman UNEP/IOC Task Team on Implications of Climatic 8
2

2.4.

The Target Region

The target region includes the Caribbean Basin and the southern and eastern coastal regions of the United States. The Caribbean3 Sea is geographically located between the Equator and the Tropic of Cancer. The Antilles Archipelago defines the northern and eastern bounds of the Caribbean Sea and separates it from the Atlantic Ocean. Puerto Rico is the smallest of the Greater Antilles. Hurricanes have always constituted a risk factor and a configuring reality of the history and collective character of this region of the world. Rapid development of the littoral has produced large concentrations of population and wealth in coastal areas. Land-use patterns can augment the risks associated with cyclonic tides and floods.4 Surprisingly, there is no apparent organized effort in Puerto Rico to assess the risks associated with changing climate patterns for the region. In view of previous experience, it is not likely that governments, on their own initiative will organize planning efforts to deal with issues such as the ones related to the phenomena being discussed here. In fact, this is a generally overlooked dimension because of the very nature of political processes and the interplay of special interests. Thus, these issues become part of the agenda for organizations of the civil society. Universities, research organizations and other NGO's must take the lead.

Changes in the Wider Caribbean Region. CEP Technical Report No. 22. UNEP Caribbean Environment Program, Kingston, Jamaica 1993, p. 20. 3 Encarta Encyclopaedia describes this geographic area as follows. Caribbean Sea, arm of the Atlantic Ocean, partially enclosed on the north and east by the islands of the West Indies, and bounded on the south by South America and Panama, and on the west by Central America.

The name of the sea is derived from the Carib people, who inhabited the area when Spanish explorers arrived there in the 15th century. The Caribbean is approximately 2415 km (approximately 1500 miles) long east and west and between about 640 and 1450 km (about 400 and 900 miles) wide. It has an area of about 1,942,500 sq. km (about 750,000 sq. miles). At the northwestern extremity the Yucatan Channel, a passage about 193 km (about 120 miles) wide between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, connects it with the Gulf of Mexico. The Windward Passage between Cuba and Haiti is a major shipping route between the United States and the Panama Canal. Many gulfs and bays indent the coastline of South America, notably the Gulf of Venezuela, which carries tidal waters to Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela. With a few exceptions the entire Caribbean Basin is more than 1830 m (more than 6000 ft) deep. Large areas of the sea exceed 3660 m (12,000 ft) in depth; the greatest depth measured thus far is Cayman Trench (7535 m/24,720 ft) between Jamaica and Cayman Islands. Navigation is open and clear, making the Caribbean a major trade route for Latin American countries. The main oceanic current in the Caribbean Sea is an extension of the North Equatorial and South Equatorial currents, which enter the sea at the southeastern extremity and flow in a generally northwestern direction. A popular resort area, the Caribbean Sea is noted for its mild tropical climate.3
4

It is estimated that over 60 percent of Puerto Rico's population have settled in foldable land areas. 9

3. Critical climate related Issues for coastal and island populations

Three of the critical climate-related issues for the islands now and in the future are: 1. 2. 3. 3.1. Ensuring adequate freshwater supplies. Protecting public safety and infrastructure from climate extremes. Protecting rare and unique ecosystems. Adequate freshwater supplies

In Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, high population densities and the conversion of tropical forest to other uses have affected hydrology and water resources contributing to overuse of existing water supply, filling of public-supply reservoirs with sediment, and contamination of groundwater and surface water (Zack and Larsen. 1993). In addition, both Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands experience flash flooding and landslides that result from the steep slopes combined with the heavy rainfall typical of this region. Poor drainage on floodplains has increased the vulnerability of these areas to flooding, while land use patterns and inadequate construction increase the exposure of the population (Zack and Larsen. 1993). Deforestation and development have also contributed to flash flooding and landslides potential under steep slopes and heavy rainfall is increased on denuded slopes. In coastal locations of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, saltwater intrusion threatens the continued use of fresh groundwater and limits groundwater withdrawals. In the US Virgin Islands, and to a lesser extent in Puerto Rico, leaky septic tanks and inadequate sewage treatment facilities have degraded the quality of near-surface groundwater supplies (Zack and Larsen, 1993). Puerto Rico has abundant ground and surface water resources due to relatively heavy rainfall over the mountainous interior of the island and receptive, sedimentary rocks around the islands periphery (Zack and Larsen. 1993). These form an extensive artesian aquifer system on the north coast. Water-table aquifers overlie the north coast artesian aquifer and occur along most of Puerto Ricos coastline. Artificial reservoirs on principal watercourses collect runoff and are used for water supply, flood control and limited hydroelectric power generation. Ground water accounts for ~30% of the total amount of water used in Puerto Rico and surface water ~70% (Zack and Larsen, 1993). As the population of Puerto Rico increased by 15% from 1980 to 1995, the total freshwater per capita withdrawals decreased slightly as a result of water conservation programs in industry and agriculture (USGS, 1999).

10

3.2.

Public Health and Safety

Both coastal and inland island populations and infrastructure are at risk from climate-related extreme events. Storms can directly damage structures, interfere with the provision of services to communities, and cause deaths and disease transmission. Both the Pacific and Caribbean regions are familiar with severe hurricanes and tropical cyclones, which have caused billions of dollars in damage from the destruction of housing, agriculture, roads and bridges, and lost tourism revenue. The unique topography of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands makes them susceptible to floods and landslides usually resulting from these storms. On most islands, a high percentage of people, infrastructure and economic activities are located near the coast, leading to dense areas of vulnerability. Potential consequences of climate extremes on infrastructure and human health: Disruption of lifeline systems, including water supply, energy supply, medical services, waste management and sanitation due to fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, as well as storm events. Effects on people and public health, due to decreased water quality and sanitation, the spread of disease, and direct impacts from severe storms; and Damage or destruction of infrastructure, including housing, lifelines, economic and industrial infrastructure due to storms, related storm surge, and sea-level rise. 3.2.1. Severe Storms: Hurricanes are among the most socially devastating natural disturbances, exceeding earthquakes, fires and volcanoes. Hurricanes cause billions of dollars in losses due to destruction of infrastructure, life and property. Increases in population density, changes in age structure and population health, urban sprawl, insufficient infrastructure, and human occupation of coastal and flood-prone areas have all increased the vulnerability to hurricanes and typhoons. Deforestation also increased the impacts from precipitation. Hurricane Georges of 1998: Effects on Puerto Rico
On September 15, 1998, a tropical weather system off the coast of West Africa was upgraded to a tropical depression. Within 24 hours, the tropical depression intensified to be the tropical storm that would become the fourth hurricane of the 1998 season, Hurricane Georges. At its strongest, Hurricane Georges reached winds of 150 mph, becoming a category 4 hurricane, the second most intense level of hurricane on the 5 level scale used to measure intensity. On September 21st, Hurricane Georges (reduced to a category 3 level) began to sweep across Puerto Rico. It was to be the first hurricane since the 1932 St. Cyprian hurricane to cross the entire island. The eye of

11

the hurricane, measuring 25-30 miles wide passed within an estimated 15 miles of San Juan, Puerto Ricos capital, leaving a trail of devastation in its wake. While rainfall across the island varied greatly, some areas received up to 26 inches of rain within a twentyfour hour period. The rainfall resulted in flooding, landslides and catastrophic losses in infrastructure. Twelve people on the island of Puerto Rico were killed, three as a direct result of the storm, and nine others as an indirect result. Infrastructure impacts were great; 75% of water and sewage service was lost and 96% of the island lost electrical power with damage to 50% of utility poles and cables. An estimated 33,113 homes were destroyed. Road damage was estimated at $22 million and damage to public schools was estimated at $20-25 million. Agricultural damages were also significant with 75% of the coffee crop, 95% of the plantain and banana crops, and 65% of all poultry destroyed. Overall costs to the US mainland and island territories reached $5.9 billion in total costs, with an estimated $2 billion or more in Puerto Rico alone. On October 15, 1998, the Red Cross announced that Hurricane Georges had in fact been "the most expensive disaster relief effort in the organization's 117-year history". They estimate that solely within the US and island territories, an estimated 187,379 families were affected.

The Caribbeans worst hurricane season since 1933 came in 1995. Hurricanes Luis and Marilyn hit the Virgin Islands in September 1995. Damage was greatest in St. Thomas. Every telephone pole and 80% of roofs had to be replaced. It took eight weeks to get desalinization plants running. Every cistern was contaminated by salt water, and there was no electricity and no hand pumps to get water out of cisterns. Critical facilities that were affected included hospitals, power and desalinization facilities, sewer systems, fire houses, police stations, public shelters, ports, communication systems, and docks. Notably, hospital roofs were destroyed, sewage distribution systems were disrupted leading to surface water and marine bay contamination, and power and telephone distribution systems required months of repairs and curtailed service (Island Resource Foundation). Risk of some diseases is also increased following floods, e.g., leptospirosis and other water-borne diseases. Estimated Damages for Hurricane Marilyn in the U.S. Virgin Islands
Category of Damage Sewage Treatment Facilities Roads and Bridges Damage to Manufacturing Agriculture Water Protective Measures Debris Removal Telephones Electrical Lost Employment Public Buildings Damage to Hotels Estimated Costs $1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 3,000,000 10,000,000 18,000,000 30,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 210,000,000 253,000,000

12

Lost Tourist Revenue Private Housing Total

293,000,000 1,300,000,000 2,271,000,000

Source: The Virgin Islands Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan. By Island Resources Foundation for the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency (VITEMA). Principal authors Bruce Potter, Dr. Edward L. Towle, and Dr. David Brower. Published in hard copy in St. Thomas, by VITEMA, December 1995.

3.2.2. Landslides Each year in Puerto Rico landslides cause extensive damage to property and occasionally result in loss of life (Larsen and Torres Sanchez, 1998). Although landslides can be triggered by seismic activity and construction on hillslopes, the leading cause of landslides in Puerto Rico is intense and/or prolonged rainfall (Larsen and Simon, 1993). Population density in Puerto Rico is high, about 1,036 people per square mile (400 people per square kilometer), and is increasing. This increase is accompanied by the use of less desirable construction sites. As a result, human populations are becoming more vulnerable to landslide hazards. (Larsen and Torres Sanchez, 1998) People tend to live in the coastal zone (vulnerable to storm surge), on flood plains, or on hillsides prone to landslides. In the meantime, human modifications are increasing the frequency of landslides. A study conducted in Puerto Rico in 1998 found that, although mean annual rainfall is high, intense storms are frequent, and hillslopes are steep, forested hillslopes are relatively stable as long as they are not modified by humans. The greater the modification of a hillslope from its original forested state, the greater the frequency of landslides (Larsen and Torres Snchez, 1998). 3.2.3. Health Hazards Both temperature and sea level rises are expected to have an effect on human health; temperature because many diseases and acute effects are associated with elevated temperatures, and with water levels because is a principal agent for many diseases and organisms that carry disease. If higher temperatures are coupled with higher humidity, heat related health stress and mortality will increase. Human health changes are related to a wide variety of considerations including: mortality and morbidity related to weather and climate; extreme weather events; airborne materials; seasonal diseases caused by microorganisms; parasitic diseases; nutrition; water quality and abundance; and changes in the marine environment including population shifts in dangerous fish such as sharks, and toxic organisms. Socioeconomic effects relate not only to increase spread of tropical diseases and their associated shifts in costs and benefits to the health industry, but also to potential losses in other industries due to health related absenteeism. It is anticipated that transfer of costs and benefits will be associated with climatic change to

13

public health in the region, but that the health-care delivery system will keep pace with the climate related aspects to the year 2025; whether or not the systems are capable of coping with other social changes is uncertain.5 3.3. Island Ecosystems

Islands are extremely valuable as living laboratories for understanding species adaptation and evolution. For example, much as the Galapagos archipelago provided exceptional insight for Charles Darwin in the 1830s, the more ancient Hawaiian Islands have since become recognized as a premier site in the world for scientific studies of evolution in isolation. Before human influence, the Hawaiian Islands had no ants, reptiles, amphibians, or mammals (except for one bat species). The roughly 2,000 species of animals and plants that successfully colonized this climatically and topographically complex archipelago over thousands of miles of open ocean on the winds, by floating, or attached to storm-driven birds (Carlquist 1980) gave rise to roughly 10,000 species, over 90% of them endemic (found nowhere else). 3.3.1. Caribbean Tropical Forests: The islands in the Puerto Rican Bank have been largely denuded of native vegetation, have extremely dense human populations, and face a formidable array of environmental problems, including extinction of native plants and animals (Wiley and Vilella 1998). Non-indigenous species, especially vertebrate animals, are among the problems. Still, with increasingly aggressive conservation efforts, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands may retain the best-preserved examples of certain natural ecosystems of the West Indies. Being showcases of natural ecosystems is part of the image of these tropical islands, and is deemed vital to their tourist economies (Wiley and Vilella 1998). Past policy considerations for tropical forest conservation have generally dismissed the threat of climate change as quite insignificant in comparison to land-use change and other human impacts. However, a better understanding of tropical ecology is now leading many scientists to the conclusion that many tropical forests may be very sensitive to climate change. It is being increasingly recognized that factors other than warming, including changes in hydrology, rainfall patterns and the frequency and intensity of storms and fires, may have far-reaching consequences (Markham 1998). In comparison to Hawaiian forests, Caribbean forests are well adapted to disturbance, but increased frequency of hurricanes, floods, droughts, and fires could lead to unprecedented stresses and drastic changes in forest structure and composition. For example, a computer model run for the Luquillo
5

Op. Cit., UNEP, p.18. 14

reserve of Puerto Rico showed that increasing intensity of hurricanes could reduce the density of trees in the forest and their total biomass, and favor the development of fast-growing, short-lived and weedy species, including invasive species (O'Brien, et al. 1992). 3.3.2. Coral Reefs Widespread coral bleaching has already been observed in the Pacific and Caribbean in association with ENSO6 events and would be expected to continue and accelerate with increased ocean temperatures. Bleaching occurs when the coral animal expels all or part of its symbiotic algae, when the pigments in the algae decline drastically, or when there is some combination of the two. Bleaching is a stress reaction that can be induced by many conditions: high or low water temperature, high fluxes of ultraviolet radiation, prolonged aerial exposure, freshwater dilution, high sedimentation, and various pollutants (Glynn, 1991). While low temperatures have generally been considered a limiting factor for the development of coral reefs in cooler climates, reefs are susceptible to increased temperatures because they are already near their maximum threshold temperatures in summer. Corals generally do not bleach in response to rapid fluctuations in seawater temperature, but rather to slightly elevated temperatures (~1.8-3.6F or 1-2C) maintained over several weeks. After localized bleaching in 1982-83, in the late 1980s and 1990s, bleaching became a regular and pervasive problem in the Caribbean and began to appear in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. During the El Nio of 1997-98, bleaching began in the eastern Pacific but then expanded to an unprecedented region across the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific Ocean from Australia to Polynesia. Bleaching was widespread in the Republic of Palau during the 1997-98 El Nio. Bleaching also occurred in American Samoa during the warm event of spring 1993. Enormous numbers of international tourists and the high volume of ship traffic and fishing currently impact corals in the Caribbean. Pacific Ocean coral reefs are some of the world's healthiest overall; about 70% are rated in good-to-excellent condition. But 30% are rated fair-topoor, many are dying, and human impacts are growing. The region's
The El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents a coupled ocean-atmosphere cycle in the tropical Pacific that has a dominant influence on weather and climate patterns around the world. The ENSO cycle reflects a periodic oscillation in the atmospheric pressure gradient between the eastern and western Pacific accompanied by a related change in ocean (sea surface) temperature conditions. The term El Nio is used to refer to the warm phase of the ENSO cycle when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific tend to increase and La Nia is used to refer to a phase of the ENSO cycle when waters in the central and eastern Pacific tend to be cooler. These changing ocean conditions are tightly coupled to a periodic switch in the atmospheric pressure gradient across the Pacific the Southern Oscillation. The ENSO cycle is a continuously evolving pattern of ocean-atmosphere behavior and represents one of the dominant patterns of natural variability in the climate system. 15
6

extremely diverse corals, mangroves, and sea grasses are pressured by deforestation, agriculture, construction, pollution and fishing. Climate-related changes could affect coral through more than simply increased water temperatures: in some Pacific jurisdictions, changes are expected in aerial exposure due to sea level alterations associated with ENSO. In the Caribbean, erosion/sedimentation may be caused either directly through floods or indirectly through increased erosion following fires associated with drought conditions. In addition, hurricanes and typhoons can damage coral reefs. For example, Hurricane Hugo in 1989 caused extensive damage to reefs outside of Puerto Rico as principal reef builders were fragmented, overturned or destroyed (USGS, 1999). Unhealthy coral reefs are the most susceptible to destruction by hurricanes.

4. The Project Components

4.1. Main Objective The projects main objective is to articulate a set of preventive measures and open action paths, under alternative scenarios. The urgency to respond proactively to this challenge may confront obstacles given the fact that social conditions are undermining the legitimacy of public institutions and, thus, might obstruct the required degree of mobilization of resources for assessment and action. 4.2. Risk Assessment

A basic product of this planning project is an initial assessment of the risks being faced by the target region. Risks are closely associated with historically established land-use patterns, building codes and institutional capabilities. This assessment will help to gain a deeper understanding of long-term planning requirements, within a context of changing social structures. Economic, social and political consequences derived from a process of climate change would jointly determine the matrix of risks facing the target region. Risks are to be interpreted in terms of expected losses stemming from events associated with a probability of occurrence. Risks associated with a rising sea level and/or an increase of cyclonic activity in the target region would be identified and assessed. Thus, drawing up alternative scenarios and estimating expected losses will be an essential and basic first task for this project. 4.3. Scope

This project connects the assessed risks derived from climate change with other processes that are already taking place in the region. These processes have an important bearing on the feasibility of potential

16

courses of action. These include processes that are intertwined with governance. Thus, the scope of the project incorporates the social and economic interplay of collective decision processes. The capacity to implement socially desirable policies, which may not be presently popular or which may be negatively perceived by special interests, lies at the root of the viability of preventive collective action. Social conditions and structures may become facilitators or inhibitors of policy implementation. Critical areas of concern that may influence the capacity to implement needed adaptability measures are: Social polarization; Rapid growth of informal economic activities; Real, financial and human networks linked to illegal drug trafficking and money laundering; The difficulties implied processes for governance; by the previously mentioned

Demographic changes due to population displacements, and; The need to plan for increasingly risky scenarios in a region that is being weakened by the above mentioned on-going processes.

4.4.

The Action Plan Dimension

The action plan dimension of the project would evaluate options for adaptation in terms of requirements and policy measures designed to promote or dissuade activities and practices that enhance vulnerability. Strategies for providing adequate water resources may include improved rainfall catchment, improved storage and distribution systems, development of under-utilized, or alternative, sources; better management of supply and infrastructure; increased water conservation programs; construction of groundwater recharge basis for runoff; more effective use of ENSO forecast information, and application of new technology, such as desalinization. For key sectors, water resources strategies may include exploring the feasibility of crop diversification and the use of drought-resistant crops, as well as the integration of climate considerations into community planning and tourism development. Policy options and adaptation strategies related to public health and safety may include upgrading and protection of infrastructure, comprehensive disaster management programs, consideration of land use policies, and adoption and enforcement of more stringent building

17

codes. For reducing public health risk, strategies include improved health care infrastructure, improved emergency plans and public outreach. For potential flood conditions, adaptation measures may include changes in land use policies that discourage construction in flood plains or areas at risk for landslides, and that allow for natural patterns of runoff. Accurate assessments of current water budgets are critical for effective management of water resources, especially on small, densely populated islands with limited storage capacity (Larsen and Concepcin, 1998). Water needs assessments for the future, as well as written, tested and improved emergency/contingency plans for water shortage periods, may become necessary standard management components for public and private sectors. Strategies to protect ecosystems may include attempting to slow biological invasions, strengthening and enforcing policies that protect critical habitats, improving understanding of the local effects of climate variability and change, and increasing awareness of tourists and the public concerning the value of species and biodiversity. 4.5. Changing conditions and policy responses

The project aims to provide a set of alternative courses of action defined in terms of policy measures. Governments and private institutions should consider these actions with interests in a region faced with the effects of climate changes that may include the following: Increasing intensity and frequency of tropical cyclonic activity. A gradual but accelerating rise of the sea levels of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. A simultaneous increase in climate extremes, i.e., more intense and concentrated rains, together with prolonged periods of draught.

In a 1995 paper, Guy Engelen, Inge Uljee, and Paul Drazan from the RIKS Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, at Maastricht, The Netherlands, together with Roger White, from the Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. Johns, Canada7, present a diagram that illustrates the relations between the blocks that make up a computer simulation Guy Engelen, Roger White, Inge Uljee and Paul Drazan, Using Cellular Automata for Integrated Modelling of Socio-environmental Systems", This paper has been published (in color)
7

in its definite version in: Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 1995, 34, p.203-214. The paper had been presented at the Workshop on GIS Applications in Coastal Zone Management of Small Island States, Barbados, April 20-22, 1994. 18

model, designed to evaluate impacts and policies in anticipation and response to climate changes. The diagram also serves to establish the different stages of data organization and system building to implement a long-range planning process to support decisions related to public policy in light of climate change. The diagram is reproduced in this proposal for purposes of illustrating those stages only. On the macro level, economic activities interact with the social sub-system through demographic variables and the demand for labor. External economic relations are incorporated as well as the impact of climate change on specific economic sectors such as tourism and agriculture. The ultimate effects are captured by changes in potential and probable land use patterns projected in response to the complex interaction among all variables. Diagram 1 5. The Project's Work Plan The scope of the total project includes a large geographic area encompassing numerous countries and jurisdictions. This proposal is

19

limited to the 1st phase of a wider effort. Attention during this phase focuses on Puerto Rico and the relevant neighboring islands. Chart 2 illustrates a preliminary task and time schedule for the project. 6. Project's Support Structure An interdisciplinary and multi-institutional project requires a flexible model to serve as management framework. Diagram 2

Foundations and NGO's Sponsors

Project Management

CRPP

GPS

Project

CFUPR
Products

Colorado

Private Industry Sponsors

illustrates the relationship envisioned for the project at this point in time. Diagram 2 Diagram 2 is centered on the "Project". All efforts and contributions, monetary or in kind, would be earmarked to specifically support the Project. Lines depict the flow of funds and/or in-kind resources. The consortium established between the GSP and the University of Colorado appears at the left quadrant. The right-hand quadrant depicts a joint collaborative team to be formed by the research and policy centers PPRC and the Rutgers University Center for Urban Policy Research (CUPR). The upper quadrant depicts supporting institutions providing support that excludes funding. The Kettering Foundation is included in this category. The bottom quadrant includes those institutions that would support the project with funds. Funds could be provided via the university consortium or through the research

20

and policy institutes joint venture. However, all funds would be earmarked for and shall be applied to the Project. The PPRC and the GSP are committed to provide the initial support that would partially finance basic joint work that will result in the required definitions of scope, project phases, and written proposals needed to seek funding and support. The PPRC will provide in-kind resources and efforts to fill in for the needed management platform and coordinate this multi-institutional effort. 7. Participants The following organizations are supporters and/or funds providers: Graduate School of Planning, University of Puerto Rico Cooperativa de Seguros Mltiples de Puerto Rico Cooperativa de Seguros de Vida de Puerto Rico The Office of the Insurance Commonwealth of Puerto Rico Environmental Protection Agency Commissioner of the

8. Strategic Alliances
A research project of this breadth requires the integration of financial support from various sources. Moreover, it requires participation of numerous actors in a coordinated and collaborative fashion. For this to happen, strategic alliances among several institutions and organizations have been established. The following institutions have expressed their desire to become partners of this collaborative venture: The Center for Urban Policy Research (CUPR) at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, , N. J. The Department of City and Regional Planning, Cornell University at Ithaca, N.Y. (Cornell).

21

References Cited or Relevant to the Topics Addressed A Partial List

Allen P.M. and Lesser M., 1991; "Evolutionary Human Systems: Learning, Ignorance and Subjectivity" in: Saviotti P. and Metcalfe S. (eds.) Evolutionary theories of economic and technological change: present status and future prospects, Harwood Academic Publishers, Reading, UK., pp.160-171. Alm A., Blommestein E. and Broadus J.H., 1993; "Climate Change and Socio-economic impacts", in: Maul G.A. (ed.) Climatic Change in the Intra-Americas Sea, Edward Arnold, London, pp.333-349. Blommestein Eric, 1993; Sustainable Development and Small Island Developing Countries, ECLAC, Trinidad and Tobago Brimicombe A.J., 1992; "Flood Risk Assessment Using Spatial Decision Support Systems." Simulation, December 1992, pp.379-380. Burrough P.A., 1989; Principles of Geographic Information Systems for Land Resources Assessment, Clarendon Press, Oxford Carlquist, S. 1980. Hawaii: a natural history. Pacific Tropical Botanical Garden. Lawai, Kauai, Hawaii. Couclelis H., 1985; "Cellular Worlds: A Framework for Modelling Micro-Macro Dynamics". Environment and Planning A, v.17, pp.585-596. Couclelis H., 1988; "Of Mice and Men: What Rodent Populations Can Teach Us About Complex Spatial Dynamics." Environment and Planning, v.20, pp.99-109. Covich, A.P., Crowl, T.A., Johnson, S.L., and Scatena, F.N. (1998) Drought effects on pool morphology and Neotropical stream benthos. Proceedings, Tropical Hydrology and Caribbean Water Resources, R.I., Segarra-Garcia, ed., American Water Resources Association, San Juan, Puerto Rico, September 4, 1999. Vol. 40, p. 5. Cuddihy, L.W., and C.P. Stone. 1990. Alteration of native Hawaiian vegetation: effects of humans, their activities and introductions. University of Hawaii National Park Studies, Honolulu. 138 pp. Engelen G. and Allen P.M., 1986; "Modelling the spatial distribution of energy demand for the Province of Noord Holland; towards an integrated approach." Sistemi Urbani, v.2/3, pp.241-261. Engelen G., White R. and Uljee I., 1993a; "Exploratory Modelling of Socio-Economic Impacts of Climatic Change." in: Maul G.A. (ed.) Climate Change in the Intra-Americas Sea, Edward Arnold, London, pp.306-324.

22

Engelen G., White R., Uljee I. and Wargnies S., 1993b; Vulnerability Assessment of Low-Lying Coastal Areas and Small Islands to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise. Report to United Nations Environment Programme, Caribbean Regional Co-ordinating Unit, Kingston, Jamaica. RIKS publication 905000/9379. Engelen G., White R., Uljee I., Wargnies S. and Schutzelaars A., 1994 (in press); "Learning Geography By Means of Simulation: A ModelBased Intelligent Tutoring System." in: Chamussy H., Bradshaw R. and Antrop M. (eds.) Intelligent Tutorial Systems in Geography, SpringerVerlag, Berlin Frankhauser P., 1991; "Aspects fractals des structures urbaines." L'Espace Geographique, pp. 45-69. Fritts, T.H., and G.H. Rodda. 1995. Invasions of the brown tree snake. Pp. 454-456 in E.T. LaRoe, G.S. Farris, C.E. Puckett, P.D. Doran, and M.J. Mac (eds.), Our Living Resources: A Report on the Distribution, Abundance and Health of U.S. Plants, Animals, and Ecosystems. U.S. Department of the Interior, National Biological Service. Washington, D.C. Gardner M., 1970; "The fantastic combinations of John Conways new solitaire game Life." Scientific American, v. 223, pp.120-123 Gutowitz H., 1991; Cellular Automata. Theory and Experiment, The MIT Press, Cambridge Mass. Holt, A. 1996. An alliance of biodiversity, health, agriculture, and business interests for improved alien species management in Hawaii. Pp. 155-160 in O.T. Sandlund, P.J. Schei, and A. Viken (editors). 1996. Proceedings of the Norway/UN Conference on Alien Species. Directorate for Nature Management and Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim, Norway. Kauffman S., 1993; The Origins of Order, Oxford University Press. Langton C., 1992; "Life at the Edge of Chaos." in: C. Langton, et al., (eds.) Artificial Life II: Proceedings of an Interdisciplinary Workshop on the Synthesis and Simulation of Living Systems, Santa Fe Institute Studies in the Science of Complexity, v.10, Redwood City, Addison Wesley, pp.41-92. Larsen, M.C. (2000), Drought, Rainfall, Streamflow, and Water Resources During the 1990s in Puerto Rico, for submission to Physical Geography. Larsen, M.C. and A. Simon, 1993, A Rainfall Intensity-Duration Threshold for Landslides in a Humid-Tropical Environment, Puerto Rico. Geografiska Annaler, 75 A.

23

Larsen, M.C. and A.J. Torres-Sanchez (1998) The frequency and distribution of recent landslides in three montane tropical regions of Puerto Rico. Geomorphology 24: 309-331. Larsen, M.C., and Concepcin, I.M. (1998), Water budgets of forested and agriculturally-developed watersheds in Puerto Rico: Proceedings, Tropical Hydrology and Caribbean Water Resources, R.I. Segarra-Garcia, ed., American Water Resources Association, San Juan, Puerto Rico, July 12-16, 1998, p. 199-204. Loope, L.L. 1998. Hawaii and Pacific islands. Pp. 747-774 in M.J. Mac, P.A. Opler, C.E. Puckett Haecker, and P.D. Doran (editors). Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia. Loope, L.L., and D. Mueller-Dombois. 1989. Characteristics of invaded islands. Pp. 257-280 in H.A. Mooney and others (eds.), Ecology of biological invasions: a global synthesis. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK. Loope, L.L., and T.W. Giambelluca. 1998. Vulnerability of island tropical montane cloud forests to climate change, with special reference to East Maui, Hawaii. Climatic Change 39:503-517. Loope, L.L., F.G. Howarth, F. Kraus, and T.K. Pratt. In press. Newly emergent and future threats of alien species to Pacific landbirds and ecosystems. In J.M. Scott et al. (eds.), Proceedings of Symposium on Threats to Pacific Landbirds and Endangered Ecosystems, Hilo, Hawaii, May 1-2, 1997. Cooper Ornithological Society, Studies in Avian Biology. Markham, A. (ed.) 1998. Potential impacts of climate change on tropical forest ecosystems. Climatic Change 39:1-603. Meyer, J.-Y., and J. Florence. 1997. Tahiti's native endangered by the invasion of Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae). Journal of Biogeography 23:775-781. flora DC.

Mueller-Dombois, D., and F.R. Fosberg. 1998. Vegetation of the Tropical Pacific Islands. Springer-Verlag, New York. 733 p. Nicolis G., Nicolis C. and Nicolis J., 1989; "Chaotic dynamics, Markov partitions, and Zipf's law", Journal of Statistical Physics, v.54, pp.915-924. Obrien, S.T., B.P. Hayden, and H.H. Shugart. 1992. Global climate change, hurricanes, and a tropical forest. Climatic Change 22:175-190. Pounds, J.A., M.P.L. Fogden, and J.H. Campbell. 1999. Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain. Nature 398:611-615. Pumain D., Sanders, L. and Saint-Julien Th.. 1989; Villes et AutoOrganisation, Economica, Paris.

24

Steadman, D.A. 1995. Prehistoric extinctions of Pacific islands birds: biodiversity meets zooarcheology. Science 267:1123-1131. Tobler W., 1979; "Cellular Geography", in: Gale S. and Olsson G. (eds.), Philosophy in Geography, pp. 379-386. USGS, 1999, USGS Fact Sheet 040-99: Puerto Rico, Department of the Interior, April. White R. and Engelen G., 1993; "Cellular Automata and Fractal Urban Form: A Cellular Modelling Approach to the Evolution of Urban Land Use Patterns." Environment and Planning A, v. 25, n 8, pp.11751199. White R. and Engelen G., 1994; "Cellular Dynamics and GIS: Modelling Spatial Complexity." Geographical Systems, vol. 1, n 2, pp.237-253. White R., 1977; "Dynamic central place theory - Results of a simulation approach." Geographical Analysis, v.9, pp.279-386. Wiley, J.W., and F.J. Vilella. 1998. Caribbean islands. Pp. 315-349 in M.J. Mac, P.A. Opler, C.E. Puckett Haecker, and P.D. Doran (editors). Status and trends of the nation's biological resources. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia. Zack, Allen and M.C. Larsen, 1993, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: Research & Exploration, National Geographic Society, Water Issue, vol. 9, p. 126-134.

25