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Results from Nebraska Likely Voter Survey

Methodology NorthStar Campaign Systems in coordination with Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 1168 likely voters in Nebraska on October 28, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.9%. Results shown by gender and party represent those respondents within the subgroups. All numbers shown in the tables represent percentages rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The questions were asked in the order of the question numbers which appear in this report. Results only include respondents who answered that they were registered voters, somewhat likely, likely, or very likely to vote. The statistical methodology comprised weighing various groups for anticipated voting proportions, by using census data and voter turnout models based upon previous elections. This survey did not allow for an undecided answer this close to the election. The purpose was to take a snapshot of the likely voting electorate as if the election were held today. NorthStar Campaign Systems is a Campaign Technology, Data and Consulting firm located in Omaha, Nebraska. Contact Andrew Northwall at (402) 214-9571 northwall@northstarcampaigns.com Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan marketing and research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida. Contact Doug Kaplan (407) 242-1870 doug@gravismarketing.com Key Findings Governor Mitt Romney currently leads President Barack Obama by 22 percentage points in Nebraska, 61 to 39 percent. Republican Deb Fischer leads Democrat Bob Kerrey by 12 percentage points statewide, 56 to 44 percent. More than 3 in 5 voters (61 percent) have a favorable view of Fischer, while Kerrey has a net negative favorability rating as 54 percent of voters are unfavorable toward him. More than 5 in 6 Nebraskans (86 percent) believe the economy is fair or poor and more than half (57 percent) think the economy is getting worse. About 3 in 4 Nebraskans think voters should prove their identity before voting. (76 percent) About 3 in 4 Nebraskans think that the Keystone XL pipeline should be approved and built. (74 percent) 1

Ballots Question 8: In thinking about the 2012 presidential election, suppose you had a choice between Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Barack Obama. If the election were held today, would you vote for : Republican Mitt Romney Democrat Barack Obama Question 9: In thinking about the 2012 Nebraska U.S. Senate election, suppose you had a choice between Republican Deb Fischer and Democrat Bob Kerrey. If the election were held today, would you vote for: Republican Deb Fischer Democrat Bob Kerrey Nebraska Voters Gender Men Women Party Republican

Democrat

Independent

61 39 Nebraska Voters

62 38

61 39

18 82

91 9 Party Republican

56 44

Gender Men Women

Democrat

Independent

56 44

56 44

56 44

14 86

88 12

45 55

Favorability Questions 11-14: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of [INSERT NAME]? Republican Deb Fischer Democrat Bob Kerrey Questions 11-14: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression of [INSERT NAME]? Republican Deb Fischer Democrat Bob Kerrey Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable

33 27

28 19

14 17

25 37 Party Republican

Nebraska Voters

Gender Men Women

Democrat

Independent

61/39 46/54

59/41 43/57

63/37 48/52

20/80 85/15

88/12 20/80

55/45 49/51

Economy, Identity & Pipeline Question 15: Generally speaking, how would you rate the U.S. economy these days? Excellent, good, fair, or poor? Excellent Good Fair Poor Question 16: Are economic conditions in the country getting better or worse? Better Worse Question 17: Should all voters be required to prove their identity before being allowed to vote? Yes No Question 18: Should the Keystone XL pipeline be approved and built in Nebraska? Yes No Nebraska Voters Gender Party Men Women Democrat Republican Independent

1 13 39 47 Nebraska Voters 43 57 Nebraska Voters 76 24 Nebraska Voters 74 26

1 14 39 46

1 13 39 48

1 26 52 22

1 5 29 65

1 15 41 43

Gender Party Men Women Democrat Republican Independent 45 55 40 60 77 23 17 83 52 48

Gender Party Men Women Democrat Republican Independent 75 25 76 24 47 53 93 7 77 23

Gender Party Men Women Democrat Republican Independent 77 23 72 28 52 48 89 11 73 27

Screeners & Demographics Question 1: Are you registered to vote? Yes No Nebraska Voters 100 0 Nebraska Voters 0 0 0 1 5 93 Nebraska Voters 30 48 22 Nebraska Voters 92 4 2 1 1 Nebraska Voters 27 56 3 1 13

Question 2: How likely are you to vote in this years presidential elections? Very unlikely Unlikely Somewhat unlikely Somewhat likely Likely Very likely Question 3: What is your political party affiliation? Democrat Republican Independent or in another party Question 4: What race do you identify yourself as? White/Caucasian African-American Hispanic Asian Other

Question 5: Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? Catholic Protestant/Other Christian Jewish Muslim Other Question 6: What is your age? 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Question 7: What is your gender? Male Female 5 Nebraska Voters 17 27 38 18 Nebraska Voters 47 53