Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

State-Level Election Tracking: 11.03.12

These are findings from Ipsos polling conducted for Thomson Reuters from Nov. 1-3, 2012. State-specific sample details are below. For all states, the data are weighted to each states current population voter data by gender, age, education, ethnicity, and a political values scale. Ipsos Likely Voter model (applied to Voting Intention questions only) uses a seven-item summated index, including questions on voter registration, past voting behavior, likelihood of voting in the upcoming election, and interest in following news about the campaign. This index is then transformed by logistic regression into estimated probabilities of voting. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

VIRGINIA
A sample of 1,177 American Registered Voters (RVs) and 947 Likely Voters (LVs), age 18 and over in Virginia was interviewed online. Data below has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for RVs and 3.6 for LVs.

Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
All LIKELY Voters (LV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused 48% 45% *% 2% 5% All Registered Voters (RV)
49% 41% 2% 3% 5%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)

93% 4% % 2% 1% 6% 87% % 2% 4% 39% 23% 12% 9% 17%

Q2. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q2] Q3. Do you lean more towards were [ROTATE] Democratic candidate Tim Kaine or Republican candidate George Allen [END ROTATE]? All LIKELY Voters (LV) 48% 45% 2% 1% 5% All Registered Voters (RV)
46% 41% 4% 2% 7%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)

90% 4% 3% % 3% 7% 86% 1% 1% 5% 37% 27% 12% 5% 19%

Tim Kaine, the Democrat George Allen, the Republican Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused

Q4. Thinking about the elections in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q4] Q5. If you had to choose, would you lean more towards the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? All LIKELY Voters (LV) Democratic candidate Republican candidate Candidate from another political party Will not/do not plan to vote Dont know / Refused
46% 45% 2% 1% 6%

All Registered Voters (RV)

44% 42% 3% 1% 10%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)

88% 4% 1% % 6% 4% 91% 2% % 3% 29% 24% 9% 7% 32%

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

State-Level Election Tracking: Virginia
[ASK IF OBAMA OR ROMNEY SELECTED IN Q1] Q6. Have you definitely decided to vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q1], or is there a chance you might change your mind before you vote?
(n=1,061) Definitely will vote for candidate Could change my mind All Registered Voters (RV)
92% 8%

Obama Voters (RV)

91% 9%

Romney Voters (RV)

93% 7%

Q7. Have you already voted in the upcoming November general election by going to an early voting location, or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot, or not?
All Registered Voters (RV) Yes No
11% 89%

Democrats (RV)
13% 87%

Republicans (RV)
10% 90%

Independents (RV)
7% 93%

[IF Yes at Q7] Q8. For whom did you vote for President?
(n=137) Barack Obama and Joe Biden Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan Other All Registered Voters (RV)
53% 43% 4%

Democrats (RV)

Republicans (RV)

Independents (RV)

Base size too small to report data

Q9. In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
All Registered Voters (RV) Economy generally Unemployment / lack of jobs War / foreign conflicts Immigration Terrorism / terrorist attacks Healthcare Energy issues Morality Education Crime Environment Dont know Other, please specify:
52% 20% 2% 2% 2% 4% 1% 3% 4% % 1% 1% 6%

Democrats (RV)
47% 22% 3% 1% 1% 8% 2% 1% 5% % 3% 1% 5%

Republicans (RV)
60% 15% 1% 3% 4% 2% % 4% 2% % 0% 1% 8%

Independents (RV)
43% 25% 3% 6% 1% 1% 1% 5% 4% % 2% 4% 5%

PARTY ID Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican

All Registered Voters (RV) 13% 20% 10% 11%

PARTY ID, cont Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK

All Registered Voters (RV)

19% 11% 12% 3% 1%

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

State-Level Election Tracking
OHIO
A sample of 1,212 American Registered Voters (RVs) and 1,031 Likely Voters (LVs), age 18 and over in Ohio was interviewed online. Data below has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for RVs and 3.5 for LVs.

Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
All LIKELY Voters (LV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused 46% 45% 0% 3% 6% All Registered Voters (RV)
48% 40% 2% 3% 7%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)

87% 6% 2% 1% 5% 6% 89% 1% 1% 3% 46% 23% 3% 13% 15%

Q2. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q2] Q3. Do you lean more towards were [ROTATE] Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown or Republican candidate Josh Mandel [END ROTATE]? All LIKELY Voters (LV) 49% 42% 1% 4% 5% All Registered Voters (RV)
49% 39% 2% 3% 7%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)

86% 7% 2% 1% 4% 9% 84% 1% 2% 4% 45% 27% 6% 9% 14%

Sherrod Brown, the Democrat Josh Mandel, the Republican Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused

Q4. Thinking about the elections in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q4] Q5. If you had to choose, would you lean more towards the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? All LIKELY Voters (LV) Democratic candidate Republican candidate Candidate from another political party Will not/do not plan to vote Dont know / Refused
47% 43% 3% *% 7%

All Registered Voters (RV)

46% 40% 4% 1% 9%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)

88% 5% 1% 1% 5% 4% 91% 1% % 5% 27% 28% 22% 2% 21%

[ASK IF OBAMA OR ROMNEY SELECTED IN Q1] Q6. Have you definitely decided to vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q1], or is there a chance you might change your mind before you vote?
(n=1,095) Definitely will vote for candidate Could change my mind All Registered Voters (RV)
92% 8%

Obama Voters (RV)

93% 7%

Romney Voters (RV)

92% 8%

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

State-Level Election Tracking: Ohio
Q7. Have you already voted in the upcoming November general election by going to an early voting location, or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot, or not?
All Registered Voters (RV) Yes No
36% 64%

Democrats (RV)
47% 53%

Republicans (RV)
25% 75%

Independents (RV)
28% 72%

[IF Yes at Q7] Q8. For whom did you vote for President?
(n=439 for All RVs; 217 for Dem RVs; 167 for Repub RVs) Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President, Other All Registered Voters (RV)
61% 33% 6%

Democrats (RV)
93% 5% 2%

Republicans (RV)
7% 91% 2%

Independents (RV)
Base size too small to report data

Q9. In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
All Registered Voters (RV) Economy generally Unemployment / lack of jobs War / foreign conflicts Immigration Terrorism / terrorist attacks Healthcare Energy issues Morality Education Crime Environment Dont know Other, please specify:
46% 20% 3% 1% 1% 11% 1% 4% 2% 2% 1% 2% 5%

Democrats (RV)
41% 21% 3% 1% 1% 16% 1% 2% 4% 4% 2% 1% 5%

Republicans (RV)
55% 21% % 1% 2% 4% 1% 7% 1% 1% 0% 1% 5%

Independents (RV)
47% 21% 7% 0% 0% 8% 0% 6% % % 0% 3% 7%

PARTY ID Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK

All Registered Voters (RV)

20% 18% 8% 9% 18% 11% 12% 2% 3%

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

State-Level Election Tracking
FLORIDA
A sample of 1,257 American Registered Voters (RVs) and 946 Likely Voters (LVs), age 18 and over in Florida was interviewed online. Data below has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for RVs and 3.6 for LVs.

Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
All LIKELY Voters (LV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused 47% 47% *% 2% 5% All Registered Voters (RV)
46% 42% 3% 3% 6%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)

84% 7% 2% 1% 6% 8% 85% 2% 2% 3% 49% 28% 7% 5% 11%

Q2. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie Mack [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q2] Q3. Do you lean more towards were [ROTATE] Democratic candidate Bill Nelson or Republican candidate Connie Mack [END ROTATE]? All LIKELY Voters (LV) 53% 41% 1% 1% 4% All Registered Voters (RV)
50% 35% 2% 3% 10%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)

83% 5% 1% 2% 9% 18% 73% 2% 2% 5% 49% 19% 5% 7% 19%

Bill Nelson, the Democrat Connie Mack, the Republican Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused

Q4. Thinking about the elections in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q4] Q5. If you had to choose, would you lean more towards the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? All LIKELY Voters (LV) Democratic candidate Republican candidate Candidate from another political party Will not/do not plan to vote Dont know / Refused
50% 43% 2% *% 5%

All Registered Voters (RV)

48% 39% 3% 1% 9%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)

92% 3% % 1% 3% 8% 84% 2% % 6% 36% 18% 12% 5% 30%

[ASK IF OBAMA OR ROMNEY SELECTED IN Q1] Q6. Have you definitely decided to vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q1], or is there a chance you might change your mind before you vote?
(n=1,145) Definitely will vote for candidate Could change my mind All Registered Voters (RV)
92% 8%

Obama Voters (RV)

91% 9%

Romney Voters (RV)

92% 8%

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

State-Level Election Tracking: Florida
Q7. Have you already voted in the upcoming November general election by going to an early voting location, or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot, or not?
All Registered Voters (RV) Yes No
42% 58%

Democrats (RV)
41% 59%

Republicans (RV)
44% 56%

Independents (RV)
41% 59%

[IF Yes at Q7] Q8. For whom did you vote for President?
(n=613 for All RVs; 270 for Dem RVs; 273 for Repub RVs) Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President, Other All Registered Voters (RV)
51% 46% 3%

Democrats (RV)
97% 3% 0%

Republicans (RV)
9% 88% 3%

Independents (RV)
Base size too small to report data

Q9. In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
All Registered Voters (RV) Economy generally Unemployment / lack of jobs War / foreign conflicts Immigration Terrorism / terrorist attacks Healthcare Energy issues Morality Education Crime Environment Dont know Other, please specify:
43% 25% 2% 1% 4% 9% % 3% 4% 1% 1% 1% 5%

Democrats (RV)
35% 26% 3% 1% 3% 15% % 2% 7% 2% 1% % 4%

Republicans (RV)
53% 23% % 1% 5% 5% % 5% 1% 1% 1% 1% 5%

Independents (RV)
43% 33% 5% 1% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 1% 3% 1% 2%

PARTY ID Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK

All Registered Voters (RV)

15% 20% 8% 6% 22% 14% 11% 2% 2%

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

State-Level Election Tracking
COLORADO
A sample of 1,135 American Registered Voters (RVs) and 973 Likely Voters (LVs), age 18 and over in Colorado was interviewed online. Data below has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for RVs and 3.6 for LVs.

Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
All LIKELY Voters (LV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused 45% 47% 0% 4% 4% All Registered Voters (RV)
42% 46% 1% 5% 5%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)

89% 5% % 2% 4% 4% 90% % 5% 1% 25% 38% 8% 12% 17%

Q2. Thinking about the elections in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q2] Q3. If you had to choose, would you lean more towards the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? All LIKELY Voters (LV) Democratic candidate Republican candidate Candidate from another political party Will not/do not plan to vote Dont know / Refused
45% 47% 5% 0% 4%

All Registered Voters (RV)

41% 46% 7% 1% 6%

Democrats Republicans Independents (RV) (RV) (RV)

86% 4% 5% 1% 4% 2% 91% 4% 1% 3% 32% 29% 19% 0% 20%

[ASK IF OBAMA OR ROMNEY SELECTED IN Q1] Q4. Have you definitely decided to vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q1], or is there a chance you might change your mind before you vote?
(n=1,039) Definitely will vote for candidate Could change my mind PARTY ID Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK All Registered Voters (RV)
93% 7%

Obama Voters (RV)

93% 7%

Romney Voters (RV)

94% 6%

All Registered Voters (RV)

12% 15% 13% 14% 17% 13% 14% 1% 1%

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

State-Level Election Tracking: Colorado
Q5. Have you already voted in the upcoming November general election by going to an early voting location, or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot, or not?
All Registered Voters (RV) Yes No
60% 40%

Democrats (RV)
70% 30%

Republicans (RV)
53% 47%

Independents (RV)
54% 46%

[IF Yes at Q5] Q6. For whom did you vote for President?
(n=780 for All RVs; 345 for Dem RVs; 348 for Repub RVs) Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President, Other All Registered Voters (RV)
50% 43% 7%

Democrats (RV)
91% 3% 6%

Republicans (RV)
4% 92% 4%

Independents (RV)
Base size too small to report data

Q7. In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
All Registered Voters (RV) Economy generally Unemployment / lack of jobs War / foreign conflicts Immigration Terrorism / terrorist attacks Healthcare Energy issues Morality Education Crime Environment Dont know Other, please specify:
47% 14% 3% 4% 1% 6% 2% 7% 5% % 2% 1% 10%

Democrats (RV)
39% 14% 4% 5% % 9% 2% 4% 8% 1% 5% % 8%

Republicans (RV)
58% 12% 1% 5% 1% 2% 1% 9% 2% % % 1% 8%

Independents (RV)
39% 14% 4% 3% 2% 4% 2% 8% 2% 0% 0% 1% 21%

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter \, i.e., Y|~Bin(n,), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of yes, or 1, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion . This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is ones knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution ((/y)~(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters. Our credibility interval for is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on . Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and . Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2

Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below. Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes (sample sizes) below 100. Sample size 2,000 1,500 1,000 750 500 350 200 100 Credibility intervals 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.1 5.0 6.0 7.9 11.2

Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

1 Bayesian