Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| November 6, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| November 6, 2012

Highlights
Spanish Unemployment Change increased to 128,200 in October. UKs Services PMI declined to 50.6-level in the last month. European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -18.8-mark in November Asian markets are trading on a mixed note ahead of US elections today as investors are following a wait and watch stance. US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 0.9 points to 54.2-mark in October as against a rise of 55.1-level in September. Indian Finance Minister P Chidambaram stated that government will borrow more money to fund a fiscal deficit which is estimated to be at 5.3 percent in the current fiscal year from previous forecast of 5.1 percent. The additional borrowing to reach the forecast will require another amount of 200 billion Rupees ($3.72 billion). Previously government had pegged gross market borrowing at 5.7 trillion rupees ($106.04 billion) in the current fiscal year to reach the target of 5.1 percent fiscal deficit.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Nov12) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Dec12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield
5704.2 18762.9 13112.44 1417.3 15544.4 1908.2

as on November 5, 2012 Prev. day

0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 -1.4 -0.5

WoW
0.7 0.7 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9

MoM
-0.5 -0.6 -2.8 -3.0 0.1 #N/A

YoY
8.3 7.3 8.9 13.1 -1.4 2.0

58209.8 9007.4 85.65 1682.20 3111.30 7651.00 #N/A

#N/A -0.5 1.0 0.2 0.7 -0.3 #N/A

1.8 -0.1 0.1 -1.5 -1.9 -0.9 #N/A

-0.7 3.0 -2.8 -5.4 -10.2 -7.7 #N/A

0.0 #N/A -9.0 -4.6 -9.8 -3.2 #N/A

US Dollar Index
US dollar Index swung between gains and losses and finally ended 0.4 percent higher taking cues from mixed global market sentiments and uncertainty over U.S. presidential elections. Further, unfavorable nonmanufacturing data from the U.S economy and Greece struggling to achieve a bailout created bearish market sentiments. This led to rise in the risk aversion amongst market participants and increase in the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index (DX). U.S. equities also ended higher taking cues from mixed global market sentiments. The currency touched a high of 80.93 and closed at 80.84 on Monday.

99.68

0.0

-0.4

-0.3

7.1

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)
80.84 54.59 54.94 54.93

as on November 5, 2012 Prev. day

0.4 -1.5 1.53 1.56

WoW
0.7 -0.9 2.08 2.08

MoM
1.0 -4.5 5.52 5.52

YoY
5.2 -10.0 11.34 11.32

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 1.5 percent in the yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated taking cues from weak global market sentiments on the back of concerns over the Greece bailout along with strength in the DX. Additionally, dollar demand from big iron ore companies and oil importers also added downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of upbeat domestic market sentiments. The currency touched a low of 54.68 in yesterdays trade and closed at 54.59 on Monday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 1,468.40 crores till 5 November 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at th Rs. 95,163.30 crores till 5 November 2012.
th

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Outlook In the intraday session we expect, rupee to depreciate on the back of mixed global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Buyers are also following a wait and watch stance ahead of US elections today.

Technical Outlook
US Dollar/INR Nov12 (NSE/MCX-SX)

valid for November 6, 2012 Trend Up Support 54.35/54 Resistance 55.15/55.5

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| November 6, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro continued to extend losses of the previous day and settled 0.3 percent down as Greece Prime Minister struggles to find political support for measures to achieve bailout. Greece has to undergo further austerity measures to receive the bailout. Further, unfavorable data from the region along with strength in the DX also exerted a downside pressure on the currency. The currency touched an intraday low of 1.2765 and closed at 1.2795 on Monday. Spanish Unemployment Change increased by 48,600 to 128,200 in October as against a rise of 79,600 in September. European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -18.8-mark in November from previous decline of -22.2-level in October. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments as investors await outcome from the US elections. Additionally, strength in the DX is expected to exert downside in the currency. However, favorable data from the region is expected to cushion sharp fall in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Nov12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 69.7/69.4 70.5/70.75 valid for November 6, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.2795 69.77 70.27

as on November 5, 2012 Prev. day

-0.3 #N/A 0.96

WoW
-0.8 0.1 1.06

MoM
-0.8 -3.4 3.79

YoY
-7.4 -2.7 2.94

70.3

0.92

1.05

3.75

2.92

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot)
1.5977 N/A 87.68

as on November 5, 2012

GBP/INR
The Pound depreciated by 0.3 percent yesterday taking cues from unfavorable economic data from the country. Additionally, weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX added further downside pressure on the currency. The currency touched an intra-day low of 1.5971 and closed at 1.5977 on Monday. UKs Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 1.6 points to 50.6-level in October as against a rise of 52.2-mark in September. British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor declined by 0.1 percent in October from previous rise of 1.5 percent in September. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Pound to depreciate on the back of mixed global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Additionally, unfavorable economic data from the country will also add to the losses of the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Nov 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for November 6, 2012 Support 87.3/86.9 Resistance 87.9/88.2 GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Prev. day
-0.3 N/A 0.80

WoW
-0.3 N/A 1.32

MoM
-0.6 N/A 4.08

YoY
-0.5 N/A 10.87

87.70

0.83

1.34

4.12

10.91

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| November 6, 2012

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. It touched an intraday low of 80.56 and closed at 80.28 on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect to yen to appreciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets ahead of the US elections which will increase the demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Nov 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for November 6, 2012 Support 67.90/67.50 Resistance 68.60/69.10 Last JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)
80.28 N/A 68.37

as on November 5, 2012 Prev day

-0.2 N/A 1.50

WoW
0.6 N/A 1.26

MoM
2.3 N/A 3.11

YoY
2.8 N/A 8.13

68.39

1.53

1.29

3.07

8.17

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on November 6, 2012

Indicator BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y FOMC Member Williams Speaks Halifax HPI m/m Spanish Services PMI Italian Services PMI Manufacturing Production m/m German Factory Orders m/m NIESR GDP Estimate Presidential Election Congressional Elections Country UK US UK Euro Euro UK Euro UK US US Time (IST) 5:31am 6:30am 6 9
th th

Actual -0.1% -

Forecast 0.5% 0.3% -0.3% -

Previous 1.5% -0.4% 40.2 44.5 -1.1% -1.3% 0.8% -

Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium

1:45pm 2:15pm 3:00pm 4:30pm 8:30pm All Day All Day

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