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Edited by
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Forward
Edited by
Aleksey Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin,
and Sergey Oznobishchev
, ,
:
, , , ,
278
. . .. , ..
, .. . .: , 2012. 83 .
ISBN 978-5-9535-0337-2
(Nuclear Threat Initiative, Inc NTI)
: . ,
28 2012 . .
(NSP)
NTI. NSP http://nuclearsecurity.org
NSP.
Prospects of Chinas Participation in Nuclear Arms Limitations
This is the eighth publication of the series titled Russia and the Deep Nuclear Disarmament, which is to be issued
in the framework of joint project implemented by the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO)
and the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Inc. (NTI). It is based on the discussion at the conference held in IMEM RAN on June
28, 2012.
This research report was commissioned by the Nuclear Security Project (NSP) of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).
For more information see the NSP website at http://www.nuclearsecurity.org. The views expressed in this paper are
entirely the authors own and not those of the IMEMO or NSP.
http://www.imemo.ru
ISBN 978-5-9535-0337-2
MO , 2012
Table of Contents
Summary
Introduction
V. V. Mikheyev
..
A. V. Lukin
..
28
V. I. Yesin
..
39
A. A. Khramchikhin
..
58
A. G. Arbatov
..
Conclusions
77
Appendix I 1
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Military Spending of the PRC
86
Appendix II 2
Abbreviations Used
89
Appendix III 3
91
List of Participants in the Conference Held on June 28, 2012 at the
Summary
,
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Introduction
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1968 .
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V. V. Mikheyev
Deputy Director of the IMEMO of the RAS, Corresponding Member of the RAS
..
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Chapter I
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Such
an
approach
reflects
Chinas
unwillingness (today) to actively participate in
regional conflicts outside the geopolitical areas of
Chapter I
(,
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).
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(UN) mandate.
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II
A. V. Lukin
Vice-Chancellor for Scientific Work and International Relations of the
Diplomatic Academy of the MFA of Russia
..
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1950-
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Chapter II
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//
. 25
, 2003 . (http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/rus/
wjdt/wjzc/jbzc/t1992.htm).
16
Chapter II
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2http://www.yale.edu/opa/hu/download/transcript_
Hu_20060421.doc
2http://www.yale.edu/opa/hu/download/transcript_
Hu_20060421.doc
18
Chapter II
.
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3 17- (
) (http://russian.china.org.cn/china/archive/
shiqida/2007-10/25/content_9120930_ 21.htm).
19
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20
Chapter II
,
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810%- .
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7China PLA officer urges challenging U.S.
dominance (http://www.reuters.com/article/
idUSTRE6200P620100301).
22
Chapter II
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23
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24
Chapter II
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Chapter II
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27
III
V. I. Yesin
Lead Research Associate of the US and Canada Institute of the RAS, Col.
General (retired)
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1968 .
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: 240300
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28
Chapter III
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Chapter III
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Chapter III
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Chapter III
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Chapter III
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38
IV
A. A. Khramchikhin
Deputy Director and Head of Analytical Department of the Political and
Military Analysis Institute
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Chapter IV
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55
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56
.
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57
A. G. Arbatov
Director of the International Security Center of the IMEMO of the RAS,
Academician of the RAS
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58
Chapter V
questions:
()
;
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59
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60
Chapter V
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62
Chapter V
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6 V. I. Yesin. Third After the US and Russia. VoyennoPromyshlennyy Kuryer [Military-Industrial Courier], No.
17, 2012, p. 5.
7Ibid.
8 B. Stephens. Plumbing the Secret Underground Great Wall.
The Wall Street Journal. October 24, 2011.
63
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9Ibid.
9Ibid.
64
Chapter V
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66
Chapter V
.
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68
Chapter V
( ),
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70
Chapter V
,
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1015 .
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240300 ,
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800900
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71
14 .
nuclear disarmament14 .
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.
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.
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.
,
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:
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72
Chapter V
,
.
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. -1 , ,
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73
,
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(
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74
Chapter V
,
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75
Conclusions
1.
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84
Appendix I
1
2000 2001
2002
2003
2004
1.20
1.45
1.64
1.93
1.32
2010
2011
2.26
5.93
7.30
2.71
3.49
4.52
4.99
2000 2001
9.9
11.0
2002
2003
2004
2010
2011
12.0
13.6
16.0
18.5
40.1
47.2
21.6
26.6
31.4
34.1
85
Appendix I
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Billions
of
Yuans
184
227
262
288
331
379
Billions
of
Dollars
33.49
41.17
47.82
51.95
57.54
64.72
% of
GDP
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Billions
of
Yuans
452
546
638
764
820
923
Billions
of
Dollars
76.06
87.73
% of
GDP
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.2
2.1
1.96
86
Appendix I
Table 4. Military spending of China (according to official Chinese data, 2012 planned expenditures),
2000-2012
4. ( , 2012 . ) 2000-2012 .
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Billions
of
Yuans
121.3
141.0
166.0
185.3
206.5
247.7
Billions
of
Dollars
14.6
17.0
20.0
22.4
25.0
29.9
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Billions
of
Yuans
280.0
350.9
417.8
480.7
532.1
601.1
670.0
Billions
of
Dollars
35.3
45.0
57.2
70
78
91.5
106.4
Source: prepared using materials from the Xinhau News Agency (http://www.xinhuanet.com/) and the National Statistics Bureau of
the PRC (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/yearlydata/dennis)
: (http://www.xinhuanet.com/)
(http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/yearlydata/)
87
Appendix II
Abbreviations Used
ABM
antiballistic missile
AD
air defense
AF
air force
AFs
armed forces
ALCM
APC
APR
Asian-Pacific Region
ASM
antiship missile
ATD
ATGM
CCP
CMC
CP
command post
CPLA
DA
drone aircraft
DB
design bureau
ESVs
EWS
GDP
GFs
ground forces
GLCM
GPFs
general-purpose forces
GPNS
ICBM
IMEMO RAS
kt kiloton
MD
military district
MIC
military-industrial complex
MIRVs
ML
missile launcher
MLRS
MRBM
88
Appendix III
MRM
medium-range missile
Mt megaton
N navy
NATO
NB
naval base
NFs
naval forces
NPT
NPBMS
NSP
NTI
NWs
nuclear weapons
PCHs
performance characteristics
PNWs
PRC
R&D
RS
radar system
SAM
surface-to-air missile
SAMC
SAMS
SIPRI
SLBM
SMFs
SNFs
SOWs
SPG
self-propelled gun
SRM
short-range missile
START
W&MH
89
Appendix III
List of Participants in the Conference Held on June 28, 2012 at the IMEMO of the RAS
1. Anshuman, First Secretary of the Embassy of India in the Russian Federation
, .
2. A. G. Arbatov, Director of the International Security Center of the IMEMO of the RAS,
Academician of the RAS
.. ,
, .
4. Eldar Bayramov, First Secretary of the Embassy of Azerbaijan in the Russian Federation
,
.
6. N. P. Voloshin, Deputy Director of the Russian Federal Nuclear Center at the Academician Ye.
I. Zababikhin Russian National Institute of Applied Physics
.. ,
.
.. .
7. Jacek Wesolowski, Deputy Attach for Defense of the Embassy of the Republic of Poland,
Lieutenant Colonel
,
, .
8. Sebastian Gerhardt, First Counsel of the Embassy of Germany in the Russian Federation
,
.
10. M. G. Yevtodyeva, Senior Research Associate of the International Security Center of the
IMEMO of the RAS
.. ,
.
11. S. M. Yermakov, Senior Research Associate of the Russian Strategic Research Institute
.. ,
.
12. V. I. Yesin, Lead Research Associate of the US and Canada Institute of the RAS, Col. General
(retired)
.. , ,
- ( ).
90
Appendix III
13. A. V. Zagorskiy, Head of the Disarmament and Conflict Resolution Department of the IMEMO
of the RAS
.. ,
.
14. P. S. Zolotarev, Deputy Director of the US and Canada Institute of the RAS, two-star general
(retired)
.. , ,
- ( ).
16. T. T. Kadyshev, Lead Research Asociate of the Center for the Study of Disarmament, Energy,
and Environmental Problems
.. ,
,
17. N. I. Kalinina, Chief Research Associate of the International Security Center of the IMEMO of
the RAS
.. ,
.
18. Karina Katap, Officer of the Political Department of the Embassy of Germany in the Russian
Federation
,
.
19. E. V. Kirichenko, Director of the North American Research Center of the IMEMO of the RAS
.. ,
.
20. I. Ya. Kobrinskaya, Lead Research Associate of the IMEMO of the RAS.
.. , .
21. Roman Kovalchuk, First Counselor of the Embassy of Poland in the Russian Federation.
,
.
23. O. V. Kulakov, Professor of the Military University of the Ministry of Defense of the RF, Colonel
(retired)
.. ,
, ( ).
24. M. B. Kustovskiy, First Secretary of the Department on Security and Disarmament Matters
of the MFA of Russia
.. ,
.
91
Appendix III
.. ,
, ( ).
26. A. V. Lukin, Vice-Chancellor for Scientific Work and International Relations of the Diplomatic
Academy of the MFA of Russia
.. ,
.
27. Liao Weijing, Chief Correspondent of the Newspaper Tszintszi Zhibao [Jingji Daily]
, - .
28. A. A. Makhlay, President of Public Policy Research Center Independent Nonprofit Organization
(INO)
.. ,
.
29. V. V. Mikheyev, Deputy Director of the IMEMO of the RAS, Corresponding Member of the
RAS
.. , , -
.
30. Ye. V. Myasnikov, Director of the Center for the Study of Disarmament, Energy, and
Environmental Problems
.. , ,
.
31. V. Ye. Novikov, Lead Research Associate of the Russian Strategic Research Institute
.. ,
.
32. S. K. Oznobishchev, Section Head of the International Security Center of the IMEMO of the
RAS
.. ,
.
33. A. N. Perendzhiyev, Associate Professor of the Political Science and Sociology Department of
the G. V. Plekhanov Russian Economic University, Lieutenant Colonel (retired)
.. ,
. .. , (
).
34. A. V. Radchuk, Advisor to the Chief of Staff of the AFs of the RF, Colonel (retired)
.. , ,
( ).
36. N. P. Romashkina, Senior Research Associate of the International Security Center of the
IMEMO of the RAS
.. ,
.
37. V. I. Rybachenkov, Senior Research Associate of the Center for the Study Disarmament,
Energy, and Environmental Problems at the Moscow Institute of Applied Physics (MIAP)-
92
Appendix III
University
.. ,
, -.
38. L. F. Ryabikhin, Deputy Chairman of the Committee of Scientists for International Security
.. ,
.
40. V. I. Sotnikov, Senior Research Associate of the International Security Center of the IMEMO
of the RAS
.. ,
.
42. G. D. Toloraya, Regional Director for Asia and Africa, head of the regional projects department
of the Russian World Foundation
.. , ,
.
43. P. V. Topychkanov, Senior Research Associate of the International Security Center of the
IMEMO of the RAS
.. ,
.
44. A. A. Khramchikhin, Deputy Director and Head of Analytical Department of the Political and Military
Analysis Institute
.. ,
.
45. S. V. Tselitskiy, Research Associate of the International Security Center of the IMEMO of the
RAS
.. ,
.
46. Guan Tszyanbin, Moscow Bureau Chief of the Zhungo Tsinnyanbao [Peoples Daily ] newspaper
,
.
47. V. I. Tsymbal, Head of the Defense Economy Laboratory of the Ye. T. Gaydar Economic Policy
Institute
.. ,
. .. .
49. D. A. Chizhov, Research Association of the International Security Center of the IMEMO of
the RAS
.. ,
.
93
Appendix III
50. B. A. Shmelev, Director of the Political Research Center of the Economics Institute of the RAS
.. ,
.
51. Yang Zheng, a Political Commentator of the Guanmin Zhibao [Guangming Daily] newspaper.
, .
52. O. V. Yarkova, Research Associate of the Academy of Civil Protection of the Ministry of Civil
Defense, Emergency Management, and Natural Disaster Response [Emercom] of Russia
.. ,
.
94