Currencies Daily Report

Friday| November 16, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| November 16, 2012

Highlights
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index declined to -10.7 levels in November. th US Unemployment Claims rose to 439 K for the w/e 10 November. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note on the back of firm Japanese markets amid speculation that the new government would provide stimulus measures to augment growth in the nation. However, fiscal cliff issues in the US are expected to create bearish market sentiments. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index increased to 10.7 levels in November as compared to 5.7 percent in the month of October. The US core Consumer Price Index grew 0.2 percent in October as against 0.1 percent in the month of September. The US jobless claims surged by 78,000 to 439,000 in the week ended Nov. 10 as compared to 361000 in the corresponding period last week.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Nov12) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Dec12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield
8829.7 85.45 1713.30 3266.50 7650.00 1.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 0.4 15162.8 -0.6 5631.0 18471.4 12542.38

as on November 15, 2012 Prev. day

-0.6 -0.9 -0.2

WoW
-1.9 -2.0 -2.1

MoM
-1.0 -1.3 -6.6

YoY
11.1 9.4 3.7

-0.2

-2.7

-0.9

1870.7

-1.2

-2.3

-2.8

-0.8

-0.1 0.4 -0.7 1.3 0.0

2.9 -7.0 -1.3 -0.1 -5.9

3.4 -14.0 -3.8 -5.2 -1.3

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) swung between gains and losses and settled on a flat note in yesterdays trading session. The currency declined due to strength in the Euro resulting from speculation that the European leaders might agree to provide aid to the Greece next week. Further, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the FED would provide all necessary steps to augment growth in the nation. However, weak data from the US economy provided supported to the currency. US equities settled on a bearish note on the back of worries that the new government in US may not be able to avoid fiscal cliff issues. It touched an intra-day low of 80.98 and closed at 81.14 in yesterdays trade.

8829.7

1.9

-0.1

2.9

3.4

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)
81.14 54.65

as on November 15, 2012 Prev. day

0.0 0.7

WoW
0.3 -0.5

MoM
1.7 -3.2

YoY
3.9 -7.4

54.92 54.92

-0.56 -0.55

0.58 0.58

3.11 3.11

9.24 9.27

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.7 percent in the yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated due to selling of dollar from the banks amid strength in the Euro resulting in weakness in the Dollar Index in the early part of the trade. However, sharp appreciation in the currency was capped on the back of worries of global slow down due to fiscal cliff issues in the US. Also, there reports of dollar demand from the oil importers. It touched an intra-day high of 54.65 in yesterdays trade and closed at 54.65 on Thursday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 2,859.0 crores till 8th November 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 96,553.90 crores till 8th November 2012.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of mixed Asian markets. Additionally strength in the DX is also expected to support depreciation in the currency.

valid for November 16, 2012 Trend Support 54.8/54.7 Resistance 55.11/55.3

US Dollar/INR Nov12 (NSE/MCX-SX)

Sideways

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| November 16, 2012

Euro/INR
The Euro swung between gains and losses and ended 0.3 percent higher due to weakness in the DX in early part of the trading session. Additionally, favorable data from the region also supported an upside in the currency. There is also expectation that the Greece might receive aid next week. The currency touched an intra-day low of 1.2801 and closed at 1.2778 on Thursday. The Consumer price Index(CPI) of Euro zone stood at a flat not at 2.5 percent. The core Consumer price Index(CPI) of Euro zone stood at a flat not at 1.5 percent . The Euro zone economic output fell 0.1 percent in the third quarter as compared to 0.2 percent decline in the second quarter. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of mixed global market sentiments. Additionally, strength in the DX will also act as a bearish factor for the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency might be cushioned due to favorable data from the region. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Nov12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 69.9/69.7 70.3/70.5 valid for November 12, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.2778 70.06

as on November 15, 2012 Prev. day

0.3 -0.3

WoW
0.3 -1.2

MoM
-1.3 -1.9

YoY
-5.6 #N/A

70.08 70.1

0.10 0.11

0.77 0.75

1.58 1.55

2.16 2.16

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.5865

as on November 15, 2012

GBP/INR
The Pound appreciated and ended 0.2 percent higher in yesterdays trading session on the back of mixed global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX towards the end of the trading session. Additionally, unfavorable data from the nation capped sharp gains in the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 1.5879 and closed at 1.5864 on Thursday. The retail sales volume fell 0.8 percent in October as against a rise of 0.5 percent in the month of September as the shoppers cut back on food and clothing purchases. Outlook In todays session, we expect Pound to depreciate on the back of mixed global market sentiments. However, mixed trend in the global markets and strength in the DX might cap sharp depreciation amidst favourable data from the nation. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Nov 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for November 16, 2012 Support 86.75/86.5 Resistance 87.3/87.65

Prev. day
0.2

WoW
-0.7

MoM
-1.3

YoY
0.3

86.616 87.00

-0.06 -0.83

-0.34 -0.05

1.76 1.86

#DIV/0! 8.29

87.01

-0.80

-0.02

1.87

8.29

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Friday| November 16, 2012

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen continued to depreciated 1.16 percent further to touch six month low anticipating aggressive monetary easing by the opposition party takes power after elections next month. Additional stimulus measures to revive the economy may cause yen to depreciate. The currency touched an intra-day low of 81.45 and closed at 81.15 on Thursday. Outlook In the intra-day session, we expect to yen to appreciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which will increase the demand for the low yielding currency. However, unfavorable data from the nation might cushion sharp appreciation. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Nov 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for November 16, 2012 Support 67.15/66.70 Resistance 68/68.50

JPY (% change)
Last JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Nov12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Nov12 Futures (MCX-SX)
81.14

as on November 15, 2012 Prev day

1.1

WoW
2.1

MoM
3.2

YoY
5.3

0.673 67.64 67.64

-0.01 -2.55 -2.54

-1.72 -1.02 -1.01

0.00 0.09 0.12

#DIV/0 4.66 4.69

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on November 16, 2012

Indicator Current Account German Buba President Weidmann Speaks TIC Long-Term Purchases Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Country EU EU US US US Time (IST) 2:30pm 4:00pm 7:30pm 7:45pm 7:45pm Actual 75.0B 78.4% 0.2% 90.0B 78.3% 0.4% Forecast 9.2B Previous 8.8B Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

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