EGYPT IN 2030: THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC

EGYPT IN 2030

SUMMARY
POPULATION PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE POPULATION SHIFT

AGEING
MEN AND WOMEN IN EGYPT BIRTHS AND DEATHS

DIVERSITY
POPULATION BY ETHNICITY CITIES

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POPULATION AND HOMES

PASSPORT 2

EGYPT IN 2030

Summary
Population: 105 million Median Age: 26.0 years Life Expectancy: 74.9 years
Fastest-growing major cities: 2010-2030
1. Giza 2. Alexandria 3. Port Said

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POPULATION AND HOMES

PASSPORT 3

EGYPT IN 2030

Population Past, Present and Future

Age Structure of the Population at a Glance: 1980-2030 (Each dot represents a single-year age group)

In 2030, the population of Egypt will reach 105 million, an increase of 33.4% from 2010. This growth will be driven by increases in the population of almost all ages, with particularly large proportional gains for those aged 65+. This segment will expand by 170%. Nevertheless, Egypt will remain a young country as indicated by the red hotspot on the chart. In 2030, 42.4% of the population will be aged 20 or under. This age segment will gain 10.3 million inhabitants between 2010 and 2030. Not all age groups will expand during this period. There will be 1.3 million fewer 23-33 year olds in 2030 than there were in 2010. This age segment will account for 13.4% of the population in 2030, down from 19.5% in 2010. High but declining birth rates, a fertility rate which is set to remain above replacement level, negative net migration and gains in life expectancy are contributing to PASSPORT 4 these trends.

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN Reading the chart: This heat chart depicts changes in the age structure of the population over time. Each dot represents the number of people in a specific (single year) age group in a given year. Accordingly, a dark red dot shows the largest concentration of people, by age, in a particular year while deep blue dots refer to the lowest concentrations. The areas of red therefore represent a large potential market in demographic terms. HOMES Euromonitor International POPULATION AND

EGYPT IN 2030

Ageing
The population is ageing slowly from a low base, driven by large increases in the number of those aged 65+. In 2030, there should be three people aged 0-14 to each person aged 65+, down from seven in 2010 and nine in 1980. The median age is set to continue to rise from 24.1 years in 2010 to 26.0 years in 2030. Despite this, the population is set to remain overwhelmingly young. In 2030, 29.9% will be under 15 and 54.9% under 30. This is because ageing is being driven by an increase in older age groups rather than a sharp fall in the number of children. In fact, the number of children is set to continue to increase as a result of the large proportion of women of childbearing age which will remain above 50% of all women until 2017. The old old (ie those 80+) are increasing at a fast rate. Between 2010 and 2030 this segment is set to expand by a further 152%. This growth is from a low base, however, and equates to less than 1 million additional inhabitants. There have been strong gains in life expectancy. An Egyptian born in 2010 could expect to live 70.5 years, 7.6 years longer than someone born in 1990. In 2030 life expectancy at birth is set to reach 74.9 years.

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POPULATION AND HOMES

PASSPORT 5

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

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