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JP Associates
Performance Highlights
Quarterly highlights Standalone
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit 2QFY13 3,005 814 128 2QFY12 2,903 790 249 % chg(yoy) 3.5 3.0 (48.6) 1QFY13 3,008 816 139 % chg(qoq) (0.1) (0.3) (7.8)
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 19,745 18,078 1.5 96/50 1,793,611 2 18,471 5,631 JAIA.BO JPA@IN
`92 `100
12 Months
For 2QFY2013, Jaiprakash Associates (JAL) reported a mixed set of numbers with subdued revenue performance but higher-than-expected numbers at EBITDAM and PAT level. A decline in the construction (17%) segment resulted in a muted performance on the revenue front. However, strong real estate margin resulted in higher EBITDA.
Muted execution offset by margin expansion: On the top-line front, company
registered a muted revenue growth of 3.5% yoy to `3,005cr which was lower than our estimate of `3,231cr. This muted performance was on account of lower than-expected revenues in the construction segment (decline by 17% yoy). However, the cement segment reported a healthy yoy growth of 22.9%. Blended EBITDA margin declined by 15bp/5bp on a yoy/qoq basis to 27.1% and was ahead of our expectation of 25.2%. Real estate margin at 35.5% led to a good show on the margin front. Interest cost came in at `464cr, an increase of 23.3% on a yoy basis and was flat on a sequential basis. Depreciation cost came at `178cr a jump of 23.4% on a yoy basis. Bottom-line came at `128cr a dip of 48.6% on a yoy basis but higher than our estimate due to better-than-expected performance at the operating level.
Outlook and valuation: JAL had demerged its cement operations in Andhra Pradesh (5 mtpa) and Gujarat (4.8 mtpa) into a separate entity with a plan to divest stake. This stake sale is part of companys strategy to reduce its huge debt which continues to remain an overhang on the stock. Hence closure of such a deal would be positive for the company. We recommend Accumulate rating on the stock with a SOTP target price of `100.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 46.7 14.4 20.9 18.0
3m 4.2 18.9
Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 viralk.shah@angelbroking.com
2QFY2013 1,372 1,290 19 44 268 7 70 13 56 3,028 134 439 14 (6) 95 7 (2) 682 464 20 197 9.7 34.1 73.5 (14.1) 35.5 100.0 (2.3) 12,687 3,478 2,224 637 3,592 8,329 191 5,510 36,648
2QFY2012 1,117 1,555 16 38 202 56 0 25 26 2,982 26 562 11 (7) 87 56 (1) 734 377 9 348 2.3 36.1 68.9 (18.3) 43.3 100.0 (492.0) 11,088 3,291 1,816 585 2,968 6,779 120 6,088 32,735
% Chg 22.9 (17.0) 20.6 16.4 32.7 (87.6) (46.1) 111.7 1.5 415.5 (21.8) 28.8 (10.8) 9.0 (87.6) 29.3 (7.1) 23.3 134.8 (43.5) bp chg. 742 (206) 466 428 (773) 14.4 5.7 22.5 9.0 21.0 22.9 58.5 (9.5) 12.0
1HFY2013 2,935 2,506 29 94 433 27 70 36 66 6,064 360 800 19 (6) 162 27 (3) 1,360 930 29 401 12.3 31.9 64.8 (6.0) 37.4 100.0 (3.7) 12,687 3,478 2,224 637 3,592 8,329 191 5,510 36,648
1HFY2012 2,400 2,830 28 80 549 61 1 42 69 5,921 234 811 18 (9) 272 61 (2) 1,387 760 19 607 9.8 28.7 64.7 (10.8) 49.6 100.0 (325.0) 11,088 3,291 1,816 585 2,968 6,779 120 6,088 32,735
% Chg 22.3 (11.4) 4.4 16.5 (21.1) (55.4) (14.5) (4.8) 2.4 53.9 (1.5) 4.5 (34.6) (40.6) (55.4) 17.6 (1.9) 22.3 0.0 51.7 (34.0) bp chg. 252 323 8 472 (1,227) 14.4 5.7 22.5 9.0 21.0 22.9 58.5 (9.5) 12.0
Segment-wise performance
Cement division
JALs cement division reported a decline of 12.2% qoq to `1,372cr mainly on account of 12.5% qoq decline in cement volumes to 3.2mn tonne (excluding the Gujarat (4.8 mtpa) and Andhra Pradesh (5 mtpa) plants). However on account of better cement realisation of `4,287/tonne, the divisions EBIT margin improved by 742bp/252bp on a yoy/qoq basis to 9.7% in 2QFY2013.
Construction division
The construction division continued its poor performance on the revenue front with a 17% yoy decline to `1,290cr and was below estimate of `1,368cr. Revenue performance was sluggish owing to completion of Yamuna Expressway and Karcham Wangtoo project. Divisional EBIT margin witnessed a decline of 206bp yoy and came in at 34.1%. However on a sequential basis there was an improvement of 443bp. Since the past few quarters, there has been huge volatility in the construction segment in terms of revenue and EBIT margins.
Exhibit 6: PAT higher-than-expected owing to higher EBITDAM and lower interest cost
350 300 250 200 150 100 304 184 129 310 284 139 128 50 0 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 PAT (` cr, LHS) Source: Company, Angel Research; PATM (%, RHS) 6.3 4.1 7.7 10.4 12.0 10.0 7.0 4.6 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 -
4.3
Methodology EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Mcap of JPVL NAV/Mcap At CMP Net Debt for Cement, Construction and Real Estate Business 7.5x EV/EBITDA 5x EV/EBITDA (@ 20% holding company discount) Jayppe InfraTech + Jaypee Greens 8x FY2014E Net Profit
% to Target Price 75.3 26.7 27.4 30.0 0.8 8.2 (68.5) 100.0
3.7 4.6
136.8 71.0 135.5 (2.8) 19.0 9.1 24.9 (2.6) 6.9 71.4 31.3 7.8 18.9 5.7 14.9 31.7 10.8
Accu. 12,853 13,842 15,863 53,171 61,031 69,753 1,802 5,250 2,676 5,983 2,206 5,947 2,506 6,882 2,502 6,569 3,147 8,032
1,603 1,748
14.5 64.3
15.9 18.1
Company background
JAL, the flagship company of Jaypee Group, was set up in 1958 by Jai Prakash Gaur, who started as a small-time construction contractor in Kota, Rajasthan. Over the years, JAL has transformed itself into a large infrastructure conglomerate in India. The company is present across the following sectors: 1) cement (the third largest group, ~33mt capacity in FY2012); 2) power (the largest private sector hydro-electric power utility, ~1,700MW operational capacity); 3) real estate (one of the largest land banks in NCR, with over 695mn sq. ft. area; 4) engineering and construction (E&C, the largest company in the hydro-electric power sector); 5) expressways/highways (Yamuna expressway is one of the biggest toll projects); and 6) hospitality.
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Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) W.cap cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 1.5 4.9 3.5 1.7 4.9 2.3 2.0 6.2 1.7 1.6 5.8 1.6 1.6 5.4 1.6 1.6 5.1 1.7 0.9 66 48 353 51 1.0 49 58 239 81 0.9 45 71 191 125 0.9 48 103 217 239 0.9 46 119 228 293 0.9 45 111 227 267 10.3 17.6 15.9 10.2 15.2 13.0 8.3 11.3 7.3 8.5 10.6 9.5 8.7 10.1 6.2 9.3 10.4 7.3 28.5 71.7 0.4 8.6 3.4 1.5 16.3 23.5 81.4 0.5 9.6 5.5 1.6 16.2 18.9 66.6 0.5 6.2 4.9 1.8 8.5 22.0 78.1 0.4 7.0 6.5 1.8 7.8 22.0 67.6 0.4 6.1 6.0 1.6 6.1 21.4 67.6 0.4 6.5 6.1 1.6 7.1 6.4 4.2 8.6 1.0 47.8 4.7 4.7 10.2 1.1 40.0 3.1 3.1 8.4 0.8 44.2 4.8 4.8 7.7 0.6 57.9 3.7 3.7 6.9 0.6 60.9 4.6 4.6 8.2 0.6 64.8 14.3 10.6 1.9 1.1 4.8 14.4 1.4 19.7 9.0 2.3 1.2 3.2 11.6 1.2 29.8 11.0 2.1 0.9 2.9 12.5 1.2 19.0 11.9 1.6 0.6 3.1 11.5 1.1 25.0 13.3 1.5 0.7 2.9 10.6 1.1 20.1 11.1 1.4 0.7 2.6 9.8 1.1 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
JP Associates No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
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