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Diversified Industrials: Transportation

Initiating Coverage

KIRBY CORPORATION (KEX: $61.04)


May 17, 2012
Market Data
12-18 Month Price Target 52-Week Range ADTV - 90Day (000s) Market Cap ($MM) Shares Out (MM) Public Market Float (MM) Dividend $77.00 $70.61 - $47.23 418.1 $3,410.6 55.7 50.1 NA

Rating: Buy
Price Target: $77.00

Initiating Coverage With a Buy - Dominant Barge Operator, Engine Service Niche
Summary
We are initiating coverage on Kirby Corporation (KEX) with a Buy rating and $77 price target. Earnings remain poised to benefit from strong utilization and pricing trends in its core inland tank barge segment; solid secular trends in both its barging and engine service segments (related to oil and gas shale formations); and additional acquisitions on both the marine and engine service sides.

EPS ($)
FY DEC Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YEAR 2011 Actual $0.60A $0.77A $0.94A $1.02A $3.35A 2012 Previous Current $0.99A $1.02E $1.05E $1.03E $4.08E 2013 Previous Current $4.50E

Key Points
s

Valuation Ratio
P/E EV/EBITDA FY11 18.2x 11.0x FY12 15.0x 8.5x FY13 13.6x 7.1x
s

Solid inland tank barge fundamentals. KEX is experiencing high fleet utilization and favorable term and spot pricing. Sustained low natural gas prices have led to a more globally competitive U.S. petrochemical industry while driving higher production levels and export activity. KEXs black oil fleet is experiencing strong demand, primarily derived by stable refinery output and the movement of domestic crude oil from the Midwest and South Texas. Any modest recovery in housing will also drive additional volume and further tighten capacity. Industry consolidator. Kirbys strong management team has successfully integrated over 40 acquisitions across its two divisions since the late 1980s. KEX has used strong marine-related FCF to fund this market share growth. We believe Kirbys material share, particularly on the marine side, and disciplined management team has helped to create more stability in the inland tank barge market. We expect Kirby will continue its accretive acquisition strategy to drive growth in its inland and coastal marine operations, as well as engine services. Concern about growth trajectory of United segment. Management has stated that the biggest wildcard to its $3.85-$4.05 EPS guidance is United's land-based business and the consequences of the recent rotation from drilling for natural gas to crude oil. United has seen a pause in new order activity and is anticipating a decrease in overall demand for 2012. While this will lead to tougher earnings comparisons in 2H12, KEX believes this pause will help reposition the revenue stream to a more service-oriented model (higher margin). Coastal segment has longer-term potential. Kirby re-entered the coastal tank barge market in 2011 with the purchase of K-Sea. Coastal's operations primarily move refined products with demand tied more closely to the overall U.S. economic strength. KEX does expect Coastal will be profitable in 2012 (high single-digit operating margins). KEX remains focused on fine-tuning its operations, reducing costs, and seeking additional acquisitions. As 8% of coastwise capacity exits the market by 2015 (S-H phase out), fundamentals should strengthen. Valuation. Our $77 price target is predicated on a 17.0x P/E multiple to our calendar 2013 EPS estimate of $4.50. This compares to the stocks 10-year average of 16.6x 12-month forward consensus expectations. We believe the shares warrant an in-line to slightly higher than historical multiple as sustained low natural prices drive the U.S. petrochemical complex.

Financial Data
Revenue Operating Margin EBITDA FCF(Mil) Debt/Capital ROE ROIC CapEx FY11 $1,850.4A 17.15%A $381.8A $(776.7)A 35.5%A 14.2%A 10.9%A $214.4A FY12 $2,297.2E 17.17%E $494.7E $119.3E 28.7%E 14.7%E 10.6%E $266.5E FY13 $2,425.7E 17.79%E $594.2E $209.4E 20.4%E 14.1%E 11.2%E $230.4E

Balance Sheet
Cash Accounts Receivable Current Assets PPE Goodwill Total Assets Accounts Payable Current Liabilities Total Debt Total Liabilities Total SOE and Liab. FY11 $16.2A $335.1A $529.3A $1,822.2A $483.5A $2,960.4A $163.0A $358.8A $802.0A $1,506.3A $2,960.4A FY12 $10.6E $385.1E $563.7E $1,936.7E $483.5E $3,109.2E $183.0E $378.8E $677.0E $1,424.2E $3,109.2E FY13 $40.0E $420.1E $618.1E $2,004.5E $483.5E $3,231.5E $203.0E $400.8E $497.0E $1,290.5E $3,231.5E

Company Description
Kirby Corp. is the largest domestic tank barge operator transporting bulk liquids along the inland waterway system, all three U.S. coasts, and Alaska and Hawaii. The Diesel Engine Services (DES) segment provides aftermarket parts and service for medium- and high-speed diesel engines. DES manufacturers and remanufactures oilfield service equipment, including hydraulic fracturing equipment.

Chaz Jones 901.251.2231 cgjones@wundernet.com Nicholas Bender 901.251.2230 nbender@wundernet.com

Wunderlich Securities, Inc. 6000 Poplar Avenue, Suite 150 Memphis, TN 38119

For Required Disclosures and Reg AC, please see page 3 of report
FINRA/SIPC

Kirby Corporation

May 17, 2012

Figure 1 - Kirby Corporation - Earnings Model 2010A-2013E ($ in Millions Except Per S hare)
1Q A O pe ra ting S e gme nts: Marine Revenue Year- Over- Year Change Marine Operating Income Year- Over- Year Change Marine Operating Margin Year- Over- Year Point Chg. Diesel Engine Services Revenue Year- Over- Year Change Diesel Engine Services Oper. Inc. Year- Over- Year Change Diesel Engine Services Oper. Margin Year- Over- Year Point Chg. Corporate Expenses Year- Over- Year Change Tota l O pe ra ting Re ve nue Year- Over- Year Change Tota l O pe ra ting Expe nse s Year- Over- Year Change Tota l O pe ra ting Inc ome Year- Over- Year Change O pe ra ting Ma rgin Year- Over- Year Point Chg. EBITDA Year- Over- Year Change Interest Expense, net Year- Over- Year Change Other Income/Expense P re - Ta x Inc ome Year- Over- Year Change Income Tax Expense Year- Over- Year Change Tax Rate Ne t Inc ome Year- Over- Year Change Less Earnings from Non- Controlling Interest Ne t Inc ome Attributa ble to KEX EP S From Cont. O ps. Year- Over- Year Change Shares Outstanding (FD) G AAP EP S $219.6 0.2% 42.3 - 8.5% 19.3% - 1.83 $48.7 - 17.0% 5.0 - 0.9% 10.4% 1.68 4.3 47.6% $230.3 5.7% 49.7 - 6.6% 21.6% - 2.82 $43.4 - 20.8% 4.1 - 44.8% 9.5% - 4.12 3.1 3.8% $232.8 2.3% 51.4 - 10.8% 22.1% - 3.24 $48.5 8.6% 4.5 - 3.2% 9.3% - 1.12 3.2 1.5% $232.4 7.2% 49.4 - 5.3% 21.2% - 2.79 $53.9 26.2% 6.9 32.2% 12.8% 0.58 2.6 - 18.6% $915.0 3.8% 192.8 - 7.8% 21.1% - 2.66 $194.5 - 3.2% 20.6 - 8.3% 10.6% - 0.59 13.2 7.8% $ 1, 10 9 . 6 2.5% $909.5 5.6% $200.0 - 9.4% 18 . 0 % - 2.37 $294.3 - 4.7% 11.0 - 1.1% - 0.6 $ 18 9 . 6 - 9.8% 72.3 - 9.4% 38.1% $ 117 . 4 - 10.0% - 1.1 $ 116 . 2 $ 2 . 15 - 10.2% 53.5 $ 2 . 15 $241.7 10.1% 52.7 24.6% 21.8% 2.54 $57.7 18.5% 6.6 31.0% 11.5% 1.10 3.6 - 16.3% $299.4 11.6% $243.7 8.2% $55.6 29.4% 18 . 6 % 2.55 $80.4 14.0% 2.8 6.2% - 0.1 $52.9 31.0% 20.0 29.2% 37.8% $32.9 32.1% - 0.5 $32.4 $0.60 31.0% 53.4 $0.60 $266.6 15.8% 58.4 17.5% 21.9% 0.33 $170.7 293.2% 17.6 327.8% 10.3% 0.83 4.5 45.3% $437.3 59.8% $365.9 64.0% $ 7 1. 5 41.2% 16 . 3 % - 2.16 $99.2 35.7% 3.3 21.5% - 0.1 $68.3 42.4% 26.1 42.2% 38.2% $42.2 42.5% - 0.5 $ 4 1. 7 $0.77 41.3% 53.4 $0.77 $351.2 50.9% 78.1 52.0% 22.2% 0.16 $212.4 337.6% 21.2 370.7% 10.0% 0.70 7.1 122.9% $563.6 100.3% $ 4 7 1. 3 106.2% $92.3 75.0% 16 . 4 % - 2.37 $ 12 8 . 3 67.1% 6.0 117.2% 0.0 $86.3 72.3% 32.7 70.4% 37.9% $53.6 73.4% - 0.9 $52.7 $0.94 63.7% 55.4 $0.94 $335.1 44.2% 74.3 50.4% 22.2% 0.91 $215.0 299.1% 26.4 283.1% 12.3% - 0.51 2.7 4.2% $550.1 92.1% $452.3 94.4% $97.9 82.4% 17 . 8 % - 0.95 $73.9 0.0% 5.8 104.5% - 0.2 $92.2 80.1% 35.1 82.0% 38.0% $57.1 79.0% - 0.6 $56.5 $ 1. 0 2 71.5% 55.5 $ 1. 0 0 $1,194.6 30.6% 263.4 36.7% 22.1% 0.99 $655.8 237.2% 71.8 249.4% 10.9% 0.38 17.9 35.8% $ 1, 8 5 0 . 4 66.8% $ 1, 5 3 3 . 1 68.6% $ 3 17 . 3 58.6% 17 . 1% - 0.88 $ 3 8 1. 8 29.7% 17.9 63.3% - 0.3 $299.7 58.0% 113.8 57.5% 38.0% $ 18 5 . 9 58.3% - 2.5 $ 18 3 . 4 $3.35 55.8% 54.4 $3.33 $336.0 39.0% 70.9 34.5% 21.1% - 0.70 $231.0 300.4% 27.8 320.1% 12.0% 0.56 3.0 - 17.8% $566.9 89.4% $ 4 7 1. 3 93.4% $95.7 71.9% 16 . 9 % - 1.71 $80.4 0.0% 5.8 106.1% - 0.1 $90.0 70.2% 34.0 70.3% 37.8% $56.0 70.1% - 0.9 $55.0 $0.99 63.8% 55.6 $0.91 $351.1 31.7% 75.8 30.0% 21.6% - 0.29 $226.2 32.5% 27.1 54.1% 12.0% 1.68 4.3 - 5.6% $577.3 32.0% $478.6 30.8% $98.7 38.1% 17 . 1% 0.75 $ 13 6 . 5 37.6% 5.7 75.0% 0.0 $93.0 36.2% 35.3 35.6% 38.0% $57.6 36.5% - 0.8 $56.8 $ 1. 0 2 32.5% 55.7 $ 1. 0 2 $364.3 3.7% 79.4 1.7% 21.8% - 0.44 $218.7 3.0% 25.8 21.9% 11.8% 1.83 4.3 - 39.0% $583.0 3.5% $482.1 2.3% $ 10 0 . 9 9.3% 17 . 3 % 0.93 $ 13 9 . 2 8.5% 5.6 - 7.0% 0.0 $95.4 10.5% 36.2 10.7% 38.0% $59.1 10.3% - 0.8 $58.3 $ 1. 0 5 11.2% 55.8 $ 1. 0 5 $354.9 5.9% 76.6 3.2% 21.6% - 0.56 $215.0 0.0% 26.4 0.2% 12.3% 0.02 3.9 44.3% $569.9 3.6% $470.7 4.1% $99.2 1.4% 17 . 4 % - 0.38 $ 13 8 . 6 87.6% 5.5 - 6.0% 0.0 $93.7 1.6% 35.6 1.5% 38.0% $58.1 1.7% - 0.7 $57.4 $ 1. 0 3 0.7% 55.9 $ 1. 0 3 $1,406.3 17.7% 302.8 14.9% 21.5% - 0.52 $891.0 35.9% 107.2 49.2% 12.0% 1.08 15.5 - 13.7% $2,297.2 24.1% $ 1, 9 0 2 . 7 24.1% $394.5 24.3% 17 . 2 % 0.02 $494.7 29.6% 22.6 26.2% - 0.1 $372.0 24.1% 141.2 24.0% 37.9% $230.8 24.2% - 3.2 $227.6 $4.08 21.9% 55.8 $4.08 $1,516.9 7.9% 333.7 10.2% 22.0% 0.47 $908.8 2.0% 113.6 6.0% 12.5% 0.47 15.7 1.3% $2,425.7 5.6% $ 1, 9 9 4 . 1 4.8% $ 4 3 1. 7 9.4% 17 . 8 % 0.62 $594.2 20.1% 18.8 - 17.0% 0.0 $ 4 12 . 9 11.0% 156.9 11.1% 38.0% $256.0 10.9% - 3.0 $253.0 $4.50 10.3% 56.2 $4.50 2QA 3QA 4QA 2 0 10 A 1Q A 2QA 3QA 4QA 2 0 11A 1Q A 2QE 3QE 4QE 2 0 12 E 2 0 13 E

$268.3 $273.7

$ 2 8 1. 3 $ 2 8 6 . 3

- 3.4% 0.3% 3.4% 10.3% $225.2 $223.0 $228.6 $232.7 - 1.7% $43.0 - 11.6% 16 . 0 % - 1.48 $70.6 0.0% 2.7 - 5.2% 0.0 $40.4 - 12.1% 15.4 - 11.5% 38.3% $24.9 - 12.5% - 0.2 $24.7 $0.46 - 11.4% 53.5 $0.46 3.7% $50.6 - 12.3% 18 . 5 % - 2.66 $73.1 - 8.6% 2.7 - 3.4% 0.0 $48.0 - 12.8% 18.3 - 12.8% 38.2% $29.6 - 12.8% - 0.4 $29.3 $0.54 - 13.9% 53.7 $0.54 7.7% $52.7 - 11.9% 18 . 7 % - 3.25 $76.8 - 9.2% 2.8 - 1.1% - 0.1 $50.1 - 12.5% 19.2 - 12.0% 38.3% $30.9 - 12.8% - 0.2 $30.7 $0.57 - 11.5% 53.4 $0.57 13.5% $53.7 - 1.6% 18 . 7 % - 2.26 $73.9 0.0% 2.8 5.6% - 0.4 $ 5 1. 2 - 1.6% 19.3 - 1.0% 37.7% $ 3 1. 9 - 2.0% - 0.3 $ 3 1. 6 $0.59 0.4% 53.2 $0.58

So urce: Co mpany do cuments and Wunderlich Securities

Chaz Jones 901.251.2231 cgjones@wundernet.com Nicholas Bender 901.251.2230 nbender@wundernet.com

Wunderlich Securities, Inc. 2

Kirby Corporation

May 17, 2012

Disclosures:
Analyst Certification I Chaz Jones, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject companies and their underlying securities. I further certify that I have not and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendation(s) in this research report. Valuation/Risks
s

Valuation: In determining an appropriate valuation, we consider such factors as relative growth rates, operating margins, leverage ratios, cash flow, ROIC, market position, historical multiple range, and economic/industry cycles. Risks: includes weather and river conditions, barge overcapacity, lock maintenance, federal regulations, accidents, fuel prices, and modal competition.

General disclosures: Prices are as of the close of 05/16/12. Ratings Distribution (in Percentages) & Investment Banking Disclosure Chart Information Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Disclosure Rating Buy -rated Hold -rated Sell -rated Count 130 72 9 Ratings Distribution* 61.61 34.12 4.27 Count 22 7 1 Investment Banking** 16.92 9.72 11.11

* Percentage of all Wunderlich-covered stocks assigned an equivalent Buy, Hold, or Sell rating. ** Percentage of companies within Wunderlich-rated Buy, Hold, and Sell categories for which Wunderlich or an associated firm provided investment banking services within the past 12 months.

Rating System: There are three rating categories within the Wunderlich Securities Investment Rating System: Buy, Hold, and Sell. The rating assigned to each company is based on the following criteria. Buy a security which at the time the rating is instituted or reiterated indicates an expectation of a total return of greater than 20% over the next 12-18 months. Hold - a security which at the time the rating is instituted or reiterated indicates an expectation of a total return of plus or minus 5% over the next 12-18 months. Sell a security which at the time the rating is instituted or reiterated indicates an expectation of a negative total return of greater than 10% over the next 12-18 months. The analyst(s) who prepared this report may be compensated in part from a bonus pool that is partially funded by fees received by Wunderlich Securities for providing investment banking services.

To request further information regarding the companies discussed in this report, readers may send an email to research@wundernet.com or may write to the Wunderlich Securities Research Department, Wunderlich Securities, Inc., 400 E. Pratt Street, Suite 710, Baltimore, MD, 21202. Other Disclosures Wunderlich Securities, Inc. ("WSI") is a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident

Chaz Jones 901.251.2231 cgjones@wundernet.com Nicholas Bender 901.251.2230 nbender@wundernet.com

Wunderlich Securities, Inc. 3

Kirby Corporation

May 17, 2012

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Chaz Jones 901.251.2231 cgjones@wundernet.com Nicholas Bender 901.251.2230 nbender@wundernet.com

Wunderlich Securities, Inc. 4

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Director of Equity Capital Markets J. Jeffery Fowlds 303.965.7964 Brooke Hrimnak 410.369.2609 Equity Research Director of Research Michael E. Hoffman 410.369.2620 Accounting and Tax Policy Forensic Accounting Mike Gyure, CPA 440.364.7473 Diversified Industrials Environmental Services Michael E. Hoffman 410.369.2620 Brian J. Butler, CFA 410.369.2614 Diversified/Industrials Brent D. Rakers, CFA 901.251.2236 Anjali R. Voria, CFA 901.251.2238 Transportation Brian J. Butler, CFA 410.369.2614 Chaz Jones 901.251.2231 Nicholas Bender 901.251.2230 Energy Alternative Energy Theodore O'Neill 212.402.2054 Exploration & Production Irene O. Haas 713.403.3980 Mostafa Dahhane, CFA 713.403.3986 Oilfield Services/Exploration & Production Jason Wangler 713.403.3985 Master Limited Partnerships John R. Cusick 212.402.2057 Utilities/Power James L. Dobson 212.402.2059 Financial Services Real Estate Merrill Ross 703.307.9409 Regional Banks Kevin Reynolds, CFA 901.251.2229 Jeremy Lucas 901.251.1362 Healthcare Medical Devices Gregory J. Simpson, CFA 314.719.3467 Derek Winters 314.719.3468 Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Cable/Satellite Entertainment Matthew Harrigan 303.965.7966 Communications & Networking Equipment Matthew S. Robison 415.572.0936 Information Infrastructure Brian S. Freed, CFA 901.251.1353 Jeffrey J. Andry 901.259.9432 Software-as-a-Service Richard K. Baldry, CFA 410.369.2633 Specialty Semiconductors and Components William S. Harrison 410.369.2632 Blake T. Harper, CFA 410.369.2629 Institutional Equity Sales Director of Institutional Sales Thomas S. Stephens 410.369.2602 Beth Adams 972.772.5066 Clifford Athey 410.369.2627 Tim Ballard 901.259.9411 Greg Brown 303.260.7902 Brett Chiles 901.259.9436 James Donovan 617.892.7222 Paul Gillespie 901.259.9407 Daniel Glading 410.369.2613 Mike Grabenstein 410.369.2629 Thomas Hadley 303.260.7905 Haywood Henderson 901.259.9438 John Hohweiler 410.369.2610 Sam Levine 212.402.2067 Mark McCulloh 410.369.2619 Ethel McGlynn 303.260.7904 Kyle Norton 212.402.2060 Kristi Papanikolaw 212.402.2058 Jean Potvin 212.402.2065 Beth Rosenberry 312.368.0478 Christina Rosso 212.402.2055 Ned Sinnott 804.263.5240 Institutional Equity Trading Director of Institutional Equity Trading Stephen C. Iskalis 303.260.7901 John Belgrade 888.257.4152 Chuck Berry 303.965.7961 Erik Briggs 410.369.2611 Trip Carey 617.892.7220 Jeffrey England 303.965.7960 Daniel Muhly 410.369.2606

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