Reliability Engineering Part 10

Reliability Testing (C) - The Inverse Power Law Model

The Inverse Power Law Relationship can be expressed by the equation:

Life or time to failure = B (S)
-N


The Inverse Power Law model states that the life (L) is inversely proportional to the stress (S) with
the power of an exponent (N). The value of exponent (N) depends on the individual product and/or
product material. The constant factor (B) depends on the test set up. The relationship between life at
stress level (1) and life at stress level (2) can be derived as follows:


( )
( )
N
N
S B L
S B L

=
=
2 2
1 1
or
L
L
S
S
N
1
2
1
2
=

Taking the reciprocal

N
S
S
L
L
L
L
(

= =
2
1
1
2
2
1
1


Assuming: S
1
= S
A
(Accelerated Stress level)
L
1
= L
A
(Product Life at Accelerated Stress level)
and S
2
= S
N
(Normal Stress level)
L
2
= L
N
(Product Life at Normal Stress level)


We get:
N
N
A
A
N
S
S
L
L
(

=
and L L
S
S
N A
A
N
N
=

(


Constructing an Inverse Power plot

LIFE = B(S)
-N
Taking the logarithm of both sides we get: Log L = - N Log S + Log B
Let Log L = y and Log S = x then Log L = - N Log S + Log B is equal to y = - Nx + C
This represents a linear relation. When (L) is plotted versus (S) on Log-Log paper the data will
fall on a straight line with slope (-N) and intercept (Log B).

Example1
The inverse power law model was found to apply to a crush test performed on an implantable
electrode. It was estimated that the electrode could be subjected to crush forces of approximately
4 lbf when implanted in the human body (normal use conditions). When subjected to accelerated
crush test in the laboratory, the total cycles to failure were 35,000 cycles. The accelerated crush
force was 8 lbf. The results of accelerated tests performed in the test lab indicate that an (N) factor
Reliability Eng Part 10 1-6 Compiled by: hposters@hotmail.com
of 8 applies. Determine the expected cycles to failure under normal use conditions. How would
you determine the (N) factor of 8?

Solution:
Assuming the shape parameters of the probability distribution at normal use conditions and at
accelerated stress conditions are the same, the inverse power relationship can be written as:

( )
( )
( )
( )
N
Use
Accel
Accel
Use
S
S
T
T
(
(

=
( )
256 2
4
8
35000
8
8
= =
(

=
Use
T


T
(Use)
= 256 (35,000) = 8,960,000 cycles.

The (N) factor is determined empirically by conducting two tests at different stress levels.
Let us assume that applied Stress 1 = 8 lbf and Stress 2 = 10 lbf. At eight-lbf stress we obtain
35,000 cycles to failure and at ten-lbf stress we get 5872 cycles to failure.

Number of cycles Test 1 = B(Stress
1
)
-N

Number of cycles Test 2 = B(Stress
2
)
-N


( )
( )
N
N
Stress B
Stress B
Cycles
Cycles

=
2
1
2
1

( )
( )
N
N

=
10
8
5872
35000

( )
N
N

=
|
.
|

\
|
= 8 . 0
10
8
96 . 5


Taking the Log on both sides of the equation we get:
Log (5.96) = -N (Log 0.8) = -N (0.097) -0.7753 = -N (0.097) 8 99 . 7
097 . 0
7753 . 0
= = N

Example2
The life (# of charge cycles) of a high voltage capacitor used in a medical device is approximated
with a Power Law model. Pass/fail criterion is defined by the time it takes to charge a capacitor to
the voltage used in the test. A total of 98 capacitors are put on test. Seven (7) capacitors are tested
at 600 volts, 14 capacitors at 430 volts and 28 capacitors at 380 volts. The design voltage is 300
volts. It is estimated that the device will be charged approximately 4000 times during its useful
life. From previous tests it is known that approximately ten percent of the capacitors will fail the
test at 380 volts, and approximately 80 percent will fail at 600 volts. Failure is defined as a charge
time (or leakage current) that exceeds a predefined maximum value. The test was suspended at
5000 cycles. Of the 28 capacitors tested at 380 volts 23 were still working at 5000 cycles.

Test Data (charge cycles)
380 V ________430 V_______ 600 V
22156 7864 20894 1452
29211 9457 21462 3001
37455 11663 25729 3825
44891 13672 28026 4726
49958 15581 30067 5569
Suspended 17688 33918 6337
18645 34481 7608
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It is assumed that the time to failure data will have a Weibull or a Lognormal distribution.

Analysis of the test data

A comparison of the Weibull versus Lognormal analyses shows that the data fit a Weibull
distribution better.
Coefficient of Determination (r
2
)
Weibull Lognormal
Data Set (380V) 0.99 0.967
Data Set (430V) 0.983 0.969
Data Set (600V) 0.975 0.916

Note: The correlation coefficient (r) squared is called the coefficient of determination (r
2
).
The (r
2
) statistic gives us a method of measuring the effectiveness of the prediction model. The
coefficient of determination is equal to the explained variation divided by the total variation of the
model.



Fig. 10-1




Reliability Eng Part 10 3-6 Compiled by: hposters@hotmail.com
Plot of data set 1 (380V)
Correlation Coefficient (r)= 0.994987 (r
2
)= 0.99 (ccc)
2
=0.8184 r
2
-(ccc)
2
= 0.1716 (Okay)
Characteristic value () = 41639 Weibull Slope () = 2.783 Method = rr
Point Quantity = 28 (susp. 23) Mean = 37070 Std. Deviation = 14410
C=fm90 ()
L
= 31258 ()
U
= 55468 ()
L
= 1.59 ()
U
= 4.87

B % 95% Lower Charge Cycles 95% Upper
5 7435 14321 27583
50 27199 36501 48983

Plot of data set 2 (430V)
Correlation Coefficient (r)= 0.99146 (r
2
)= 0.983 (ccc)
2
=0.8844 r
2
-(ccc)
2
= 0.0986 (Okay)
Characteristic value () = 23338 Weibull Slope () = 2.477 Method = rr
Point Quantity = 14 (susp. 0) Mean = 20703 Std. Deviation = 8932
C=fm90 ()
L
= 19356 ()
U
= 28139 ()
L
= 1.732 ()
U
= 3.543

B % 95% Lower Charge Cycles 95% Upper
5 4220 7036 11730
50 16359 20128 24766

Plot of data set 3 (600V)
Correlation Coefficient (r)= 0.9874 (r
2
)= 0.975 (ccc)
2
=0.8418 r
2
-(ccc)
2
= 0.1332 (Okay)
Characteristic value () = 5378 Weibull Slope () = 1.957 Method = rr
Point Quantity = 7 (susp. 0) Mean = 4768 Std. Deviation = 2541
C=fm90 ()
L
= 3822 ()
U
= 7567 ()
L
= 1.137 ()
U
= 3.369

B % 95% Lower Charge Cycles 95% Upper
5 469 1179 2968
50 3093 4460 6431


The Weibull plots of the test results (Fig 10-1) show that the data fit the assumed distribution very
well. The correlation factors are respectively, 0.995 at 380V, 0.991 at 430V, and 0.987 at 600V.
The three stress lines are approximately parallel to each other, indicating near linear acceleration.
The numerical differences in the Weibull shape factors () are small. However, at higher voltages
the angle of the Weibull slope seems to be shifting downwards, indicating a gradually changing
failure mode.

To determine the (N) factor of the test we use the B
5
points of the 380V and 430V stress levels.

( )
( )
N
V
N
V
V
V
Stress B
Stress B
Cycles
Cycles

=
) 430 (
) 380 (
) 430 (
) 380 (

( )
( )
N
N

=
430
380
7036
14321
2.035389 = (0.88372)
-N


Log 2.035389 = -N(Log 0.88372) 0.3086475 = N(0.053685) N = 5.7


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The B
5
and B
50
life at 300V can be determined graphically by plotting the applicable data points
on Log-Log paper (see fig 10-2).


Fig 10-2

Extrapolating the two regression lines to 300V yields a B
5
value of approximately 52,000 cycles
and a B
50
value of approximately 100,000 cycles.


We can also use the power relationship
( )
( )
N
N
Stress B
Stress B
Cycles
Cycles

=
2
1
2
1 to calculate the B values.
For B
5(300V)
the formula yields:

( )
( )
N
V
N
V
V
V
Stress B
Stress B
Cycles
Cycles

=
) 380 (
) 300 (
) 380 (
) 300 (

( )
( ) 84747 . 3 7894737 . 0
380
300
14321
7 . 5
7 . 5
300
= =
|
.
|

\
|
=

V
Cycles


Charge cycles at 300V are estimated to be: (3.84747)(14321) = 55,100 cycles.



Reliability Eng Part 10 5-6 Compiled by: hposters@hotmail.com
Reliability Eng Part 10 6-6 Compiled by: hposters@hotmail.com
Some practical guidelines for using ALT methods

Accelerated test programs should be planned and conducted by teams including individuals who
are knowledgeable about the design and manufacturing of the product, its use environment, the
physical/chemical/mechanical aspects of the failure mode(s), and the statistical aspects of the
design and analysis of reliability experiments.

Accelerating variables should be chosen to correspond with variables that cause actual failures.
Look for previous attempts to accelerate failure mechanisms similar to the ones of interest. There
are many research reports and papers that have been published in the physics of failure literature.

Accelerated tests should be designed, as much as possible, to minimize the amount of
extrapolation required. High levels of accelerating variables can cause extraneous failure modes
that would never occur at use-levels of the accelerating variables. If extraneous failures are not
recognized and properly handled, they can lead to incorrect conclusions. Also, be aware that
acceleration relationships may not always be accurate enough over a wide range of stresses.

The goal of an accelerated test should be used to obtain information about one particular,
relatively simple failure mechanism. Multiple failure modes with different acceleration rates will
invalidate the test model. It has been shown that simple acceleration models with the right shape
are generally more useful than elaborate multi-parameter models.

In some test cases an accelerating variable like temperature may cause deceleration of another
variable e.g. humidity. For this reason critical variables, which may be decelerated as a result of
the test (and could cause failures in the field), should be controlled.

Ideally, samples used for accelerated testing come from actual production units manufactured by
manufacturing operators, under actual production conditions, using qualified parts and raw
materials. However, to be able to test as early as possible, we may want to use prototype units
build by trained technicians in the lab. This trade-off between design speed and design cost (we
may have to redo the test on final production units) is acceptable if the prototypes reflect, as much
as possible, the variabilities that will be present in actual production e.g. variability in parts, raw
materials, production processes, production equipment, production operators, etc.

In Part 11 we will review HALT and HASS.






References:
Accelerated Testing - Wayne Nelson
Statistical Methods for Reliability Data - William Meeker and Luis Escobar
Test Engineering - Patrick OConnor