Handicap to Handicap System

Here we are going to examine the statistics for horses which finish first, second or third in handicap races, to see how they perform on their subsequent runs. To try and concentrate on races with reliable form well only include handicaps with at least 14 runners this eliminates small field events which are often run at a false pace creating form which is often not repeated. Well also apply this rule to the subsequent races as quite often handicap form doesnt carry through to non-handicaps, just as big field form doesnt translate well to races with a small amount of runners. The table below shows the results of all next-time-out runs from horses which finished first, second or third in a handicap with 14 or more runners, as long as they reappeared in another handicap with at least 14 runners

YEAR

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

LSP

LSP%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

198 173 152 142 128

1671 1570 1361 1215 1117

11.85 11.02 11.17 11.69 11.46

-177.71 -288.44 -348.57 -168.02 -152.33

-10.63 -18.37 -25.61 -13.83 -13.64

If we break down these results into starting price bands, we can see that blindly backing all of the qualifiers which were sent off as SP fav on their next run would return a loss of just 1.18 LSP% from a total of 1569 bets
SP WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP%

Fav 2nd fav 3nd fav 4th fav 5th fav 6th fav 7th fav 8th fav+

347 150 87 81 32 28 23 45

1569 1147 935 785 563 451 368 1116

22.12 13.08 9.30 10.32 5.68 6.21 6.25 4.03

-18.57 -167.00 -248.00 -30.00 -193.50 -125.00 -59.00 -294.00

-1.18 -14.56 -26.52 -3.82 -34.37 -27.72 -16.03 -26.61

To lose just 1.18% of total stakes from 1569 bets is a solid base to build on, so next well examine the stats of the price bands of these favourites in their qualifying races.

SP <7/2 4/1 to 15/2 8/1 to 15/1 16/1 to 28/1 33/1 and more

WINS 68 111 111 50 7

RUNS 264 553 515 197 40

STRIKE% 25.76 20.07 21.55 25.38 17.50

LSP -5.28 -82.04 +19.54 +52.46 -3.25

LSP% -2.00 -14.84 +3.79 +26.63 -8.13

Very interesting that its the horses which were sent off at the bigger prices on their previous run perform better next time out than the horses which were sent off at short odds. I think this suggests that if a horse is relatively unfancied and runs a big race to finish in the first three in a big field handicap (14 runners or more) then the horse has run above expectations and is probably a little bit ahead of its handicap mark. Conversely, if a horse is fancied and finishes in the first three, it probably hasnt run above expectations (just run to its current mark) and therefore is not ahead of the handicapper. The final stats well look at is the number of days the qualifying runners were off the track before their qualifying run
DAYS OFF BEFORE LAST RUN

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

LSP

LSP%

1-7 days 8-15 days 16-31 days 32-47 days 48-79 days 80-111 days 112-223 days >224 days

25 35 56 24 12 4 9 3

112 179 231 71 43 13 75 28

22.32 19.55 24.24 33.80 27.91 30.77 12.00 10.71

+11.75 -12.59 +46.38 +51.21 +16.50 +7.25 -34.00 -17.75

+10.49 -7.03 +20.08 +72.13 +38.37 +55.77 -45.33 -63.39

Apart from a small loss on the 8-15 days band, it clearly pays to avoid those qualifiers who had been off for at least 112 days before their qualifying run. This is probably because many horses which run a big race after a break are rest-pattern types, who often need another rest before they run again otherwise they bounce and cant reproduce their good previous run. So if we add this final rule, we are left with the following results from the last five seasons

YEAR

WINS

RUNS

STRIKE%

LSP

LSP%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 TOTAL

44 30 23 27 32 156

186 131 112 113 107 649

23.66 22.90 20.54 23.89 29.91 24.04

+31.83 +18.50 -10.17 +26.26 +54.08 +120.50

+8.20 +5.01 -7.65 +23.24 +50.54 +18.57

The rules are. a) Horse must have last raced in a handicap of at least 14 runners, finishing first, second or third, at 8/1 or longer b) Horse must be running in a handicap of at least 14 runners c) Horse must be SP fav (including joint or co-fav) d) The horse must have been off the racecourse for no more than 111 days before its last run Results from 2004 Date 22/02/05 28/03/05 02/04/05 02/04/05 13/04/05 15/04/05 25/04/05 06/05/05 07/05/05 09/05/05 14/05/05 17/05/05 20/05/05 24/05/05 24/05/05 25/05/05 26/05/05 30/05/05 03/06/05 04/06/05 04/06/05 Cse LIA WAR KEM DON BEV THI WSR NOT NMR WSR NOT RED GOO LIA LIN NMR AYR SAN THI EPS DON RcTyp 4+H 3H 3+H 4+H 4+H 3H 3H 3H 3+H 3H 3+AMH 3+H 3+AH 4+BH 3H 3H 3+H 4+H 3+AH 4+H 3+H Horse SENOR EDUARDO BADDAM SEVEN NO TRUMPS STREAM OF GOLD POLISH POWER KNOCK BRIDGE DAVENPORT OAKLEY ABSOLUTE KEW GREEN RAWAABET SLING BACK TELEPATHIC ONE WAY TICKET COMPTON ECLAIRE RUMAN ABIENTOT SHIFTY DESERT REIGN POLAR FORCE CROW WOOD TOUGH LOVE Position 3 3 12 1 15 2 1 1 1 12 8 10 3 3 1 8 14 4 4 1 2 SP 4.5 2.5 4.5 5 4.5 3.5 4.5 3.33 4.5 6 6 4 3 4 2.75 3.5 1.88 4.5 4 4.5 4

04/06/05 06/06/05 07/06/05 09/06/05 09/06/05 13/06/05 13/06/05 13/06/05 15/06/05 16/06/05 22/06/05 25/06/05 02/07/05 02/07/05 02/07/05 04/07/05 04/07/05 04/07/05 05/07/05 08/07/05 08/07/05 11/07/05 16/07/05 16/07/05 23/07/05 27/07/05 27/07/05 29/07/05 29/07/05 30/07/05 30/07/05 01/08/05 03/08/05 04/08/05 04/08/05 06/08/05 06/08/05 11/08/05 11/08/05 12/08/05 12/08/05 16/08/05 23/08/05 26/08/05 27/08/05 27/08/05 27/08/05

CHP PON SAL BRI BRI WSR WSR WAR YOR NBY SAL LIA LEI HAY CAR BAT EDI WSR NMJ CHE CHP WSR NBY RIP LIN GOO GOO GOO NMJ DON LIN CAR BRI YAR BRI LIN LIN CHP CHP FOL CAT YOR BRI NCL YOR YOR YOR

3+H 3+H 3+H 3+H 3+H 3+H 3H 3+H 3+H 3+AH 3FH 3H 3FH 3+H 4+MH 3MH 3H 3+H 3H 3H 3+H 3+H 3+H 3+MH 3+H 3+H 4+H 3+H 3+H 3H 3+H 3H 3+H 3+MH 3+SH 3+H 3+H 3+AH 3+H 3+FH 3+H 3+H 3+H 3+H 3+DBH 3+DBH 3H

SIR BLUEBIRD KANGARILLA ROAD GOLDEN DIXIE CAYMAN BREEZE SAXON LIL HABANERO SOUTH O'THE BORDER LISTEN TO REASON BALLAST ATTORNEY COCONUT SQUEAK DISOBEY MANIC WINTHORPE ROUGE ET NOIR MASTER COBBLER FOREHAND DORCHESTER STETCHWORTH PRINCE FANTASY DEFENDER MOONLIGHT MAN DUNN DEAL ACE OF HEARTS PREMIER PROSPECT LISTEN TO REASON AFRAD WANCHAI LAD SIERRA VISTA POKER PLAYER BOWNESS PORTMEIRION OUTRAGEOUS FLIRT BOUNDLESS PROSPECT ROWANBERRY TAIPAN TOMMY WILL THE TILL LABELLED WITH LOVE SHORT CHANGE ELIDORE KALLISTA'S PRIDE KALANI STAR BRIDGE LOAN KENSINGTON(I) PRESS EXPRESS IDEALISTIC TEDSTALE TAX FREE

12 6 3 1 3 1 3 5 2 1 1 6 4 7 1 4 11 11 4 11 1 5 7 2 7 1 9 5 2 3 1 3 3 1 10 9 1 8 1 1 2 7 3 1 1 11 1

4 2.5 5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 3.33 5.5 4 4.5 4 5 6 4 5 2.75 5 5.5 5 2.25 5 3.5 2 5 5 2.5 3 3.5 2 5.5 4 5 3 5 6 3.5 2.25 5 2.5 3.5 5.5 6 1.75 5 5 2.25

28/08/05 29/08/05 29/08/05 02/09/05 04/09/05 05/09/05 08/09/05 11/09/05 12/09/05 16/09/05 16/09/05 17/09/05 17/09/05 19/09/05 20/09/05 24/09/05 27/09/05 30/09/05 30/09/05 30/09/05 01/10/05 01/10/05 01/10/05 03/10/05 04/10/05 05/10/05 08/10/05 09/10/05 10/10/05 11/10/05 14/10/05 16/10/05 20/10/05 22/10/05 29/10/05 05/11/05 05/11/05 12/11/05 26/11/05

YAR CHP CHP HAY YOR NCL BAT GOO RED AYR NOT WAR AYR CAR BEV HAY NOT NMR NMR LIA NMR NMR NMR PON LEI NOT SAL NCL WSR LEI NMR EDI BRI NBY NMR DON DON LIA LIA

3+H 3+H 3+H 3+BH 3+H 3+H 3+H 3+AH 3+AH 3+H 3+H 3+H 3+H 3H 3+H 3+H 3+H 3+H 3+H 3H 3+H 3H 3H 2H 3+FH 3+H 3+H 3+H 2H 34SH 3+H 3+H 2H 2H 3+H 3+AH 3+AH 3+H 3+H

CHARLIE TANGO GOT TO BE CASH BALLYBUNION SILVERHAY NEON BLUE MUSIOTAL NIGHT STORM DEEPER IN DEBT POLAR FORCE ICE PLANET INTAVAC BOY WILLHEGO OUT AFTER DARK AZUREE LIZARAZU INCHNADAMPH SUMMER RECLUSE KING'S CAPRICE MOAYED DIG DEEP BLUE MONDAY SPEAR THISTLE KARLU CHASE THE ACE DANCE TO THE BLUES SECRETARY GENERAL HIGH BRAY EXTRA COVER BOLD CROSS HOH BLEU DEE NOTNOWCATO PURE IMAGINATION HEAVEN CAN WAIT WOVOKA COMMANDO SCOTT GAME LAD WIGWAM WILLIE RAMSGILL PRIME POWERED

6 9 1 12 1 9 1 1 1 15 8 1 14 3 5 12 2 8 16 4 1 4 10 2 1 5 1 11 2 8 1 2 10 8 6 6 15 1 12

6 5 4 4.5 3.5 6.5 4 4 6.5 4 5.5 4 8 4.5 3.33 5.5 5 5.5 5.5 2.25 5 5.5 5.5 5 5.5 5 3.5 3.5 5 5 2.75 6.5 5 4.5 6 6.5 6.5 2.5 4