Developing National Energy Strategy Goals for the Countries of India and Pakistan By The Year 2050

Partha P. Choudhury Leo Flores

MLINS 6361 / INST 4361 Global Energy

Dr. Hyland

November 20th, 2012

Energy serves the economies of India and Pakistan to a large extent as it does to the economy of any country, by serving as the means to engage in commerce, production and trade. Both of these countries have a surplus of specific energy sources: for India it is coal, and for Pakistan it is natural gas. Going through the motions of what it is that is self-serving to both of these countries in regards to the energy needs in 2050 involves positing upon the allocation of capital and investment into their respective energy resources as well as hearkening to scenarios that are done in conjunction with the issue of known scarcity in the future as well as global sustainability. What is conveyed in our paper are the best suited methods for the energy goals of India and Pakistan by the year 2050 while keeping in the spirit of sustainability. Both countries have projected population, GDP and urbanization growths in the year 2050 that involve quite a bit of guesswork as well as knowing what each of their respective governments are committal to in terms of energy scenarios. Much of what the Project One paper comprised of will be rehashed and a derivative of the information obtained from it will have been put to use in this research paper, specifically the SWOT analyses of the energy resources of both of these countries. We will also develop a draft strategy for each country intended to see what are the best possible routes that these countries should take by use of gap analysis for each energy resource found in Project One and will come to a summation of the findings and conclude. Seeing that the Indian government has become a signatory member of the Kyoto Protocol, and sees the necessity to foster goodwill among its previous rival Pakistan, our team will embark on the draft strategy of Option 3, that of an adequate energy supply in order to meet demand that is relatively lowcost, and produced on a sustainable basis with the utmost care and attention paid to environmental concerns. This motif is heightened by the fact that the Indian nation is taking precautionary measures to alleviate itself of being a future emitter of greenhouse gases. And

since Pakistan is adjoined to India in terms of a border with it, however itself being sovereign and independent of India, the issue of relaxing tensions and a spirit of cooperation is implied in this paper in relation to the present strategies of both the governments of India and Pakistan. In this research paper, well engage in a fair bit of idealism in terms of where it is Team 3 would like the Indian and Pakistani energy capacity to be in the year 2050. As stated before, the national energy goal for India and Pakistan in 2050 wont be deduced from doing whatever it takes to get for an adequate energy supply to meet demand by using the method of doing whatever it takes, however due to the current trends in the energy consumption for oil and gas and the increasingly higher decisiveness displayed by governments around the world that involves national governments to do something to address the maladies of sustainability and environmental concerns, Team 3 will go the route of Option 3. India and Pakistan are going to have to resolve all of their differences in order for this endeavor to be successful. By way of the peaceful and equitable cooperation in which tensions are eased hopefully in the future, Team 3 believes that in order to ensure optimum sustainability and addressing environmental hazards that both of these countries have been susceptible to throughout their histories, the onset of success can be achieved in regards to their respective energy sectors. Already with the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India liquefied natural gas pipeline exemplified in Daniel Yergins textbook The Quest, Yergin recounts that this route ha[s] one more decided advantage (Yergin, 2011, 74), that of being able to expedite the most capacity of LNG stretching from Turkmenistan to India in an over 1,000 mile pipeline that ensures that commerce can be commenced among even the most hardened of enemies. If this sort of harmony can occur with India and Pakistan in the present, then one can hope that the future will portend just as swimmingly.

Formal Draft Of National Strategies Of India and Pakistan As such, the national energy goal of these two neighboring countries means adhering to: 1) Focusing on renewables, and the minimization of fossil fuels to the degree of them being outside of the periphery of the main domestic resources. 2) Reciprocal foreign direct investment in which countries and multinational companies having a vested interest in the energy sectors of India and Pakistan can be afforded lucrative contracts and brokerage by virtue of propositioning alternative and renewable fuels. 3) Engaging in environmental stewardship and clean energy treaties with other nations to foster cooperation and sustainability for the benefit of future posterities in the world. Since the Indian government to a large capacity is laying the groundwork for this certain mindset, Team 3 believes that these 3 methods lend themselves to what these two countries should have as policies by the year 2050. Gap Analysis for India and Pakistan From the standpoint of an environmentally-conscious observer who is gauging the pitfalls of what it is that the governments of India and Pakistan will face regarding energy sustainability, Team 3 will present to the reader a gap analysis in which the host governments of these two countries will have ideally set a goal for themselves for achieving energy goals by the year 2050, but will also convey that due to some shortcomings as well as snags in the process that commerce in these countries is hindered by such as corruption, that much of the fluidity of these processes in OECD countries just arent able to be mimicked as well in countries such as India and Pakistan. A dichotomy of these two countries is that India has got its own security in check,

however Pakistan being embroiled in the War Against Terror, does not. This leads to divestment of foreign investment and has huge economic ramifications on the country of Pakistan. And with the issue of energy being known transnationally among all countries to be a geopolitical issue, the Pakistani national government not having the ability to maintain civil order in the country is a huge liability in terms of the security and political approaches to addressing energy goals into the year 2050. In Indias case, attainability towards economic-powerhouse status is evident to the outside world due to accruing business, investment and capital, but the fact of the matter is that due to the inherent corruption and graft practiced there and with India being a notable emitter of greenhouse gases, even though the Indian government talks a good game of environmental stewardship to other nations, it still has a long distance to cross to be in good standing with ecological standards in the rest of the developed world. And that lends itself to projected energy demand in 2050 in which India will have to relieve itself of the burden of dependence on fossil fuels.

SWOT Analysis from NEP Issues 4-7 (Environment, Economy, Politics, and Security) for the Countries of India and Pakistan India Subject India Environment Signatory of Kyoto Economy 4th Largest in 2050 Politics Participatory Democracy Security In Check (National) Corruption and Graft Corruption and Graft Porous Borders Securing Protection By Peace Terrorism Still Emitter Alternative Renewables Standardization of Economy Western Ideals Security Issue of LNG Pipeline Global Recession In Future? Terrorism Strength Weakness Opportunity Threats

Pakistan Subject Pakistan Environment Part of UN Development Economy In Planning Stage Politics Participatory Democracy Security Recipient Of US Military Aid Will Likely Rely On Fossil Fuel Corruption and Graft Corruption and Graft Sectarian Violence Alternative Renewables Standardization of Economy Standardization of Rule of Law Security Issues Terrorism GDP Per Capita (Low) Terrorism Ecological Issues Strength Weakness Opportunity Threats

By way of analysis of the SWOT results from Project One to the SWOT analysis of Project 2, there arent that many outliers or trends that are dissimilar from the two SWOTs. Owing to Indias newfound commitment to environmental stewardship in which it chastens other nations to follow suit, theres a bit of hypocrisy on their part due to India projected to be a chief emitter of greenhouse gases well into the year 2050. But what bolsters their case is the subsidization of studies and research into alternative renewables that are ecologically-friendly. Pakistan never formally portrayed itself to the rest of the world that it is trending towards alternative renewables as it is resource-rich in liquid natural gas. But due to Pakistans ethnic and sectarian strife that mires it into being a prime theatre and flash point for the War Against

Terror, unless Pakistan can keep a semblance of law and order within the confines of its borders, it will unceasingly neglect its commitment to its domestic energy sector, something that it cannot afford to do. In order to address the gaps between the projected SWOTs above and the draft strategy put into place, both countries need to focus upon renewable energy, specifically the repudiation of fossil fuels such as oil and coal. When it comes to the issue of foreign direct investment, the Indian government has largely got that issue squared away because the only part of the energy sector which cannot be invested in is the nuclear sector. Pakistan on the other hand is experiencing the downward trend of divestment to the tune of 67% presently. If it cannot dictate its affairs by maintaining the rule of law, then foreign investment will bound to depreciate further. And when it comes to the third issue of engaging in environmental stewardship with other countries and clean energy treaties, there is a bit of promise there. India is a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol so it sees that the onus to engage in a bit of altruism on the behalf of the environment and sustainable energy is something that should be propagated. By engaging in regional talks amongst their neighbors and attending summits of organizations, India and Pakistan can learn and provide to others the mindset that cooperation is the motif that should carry the day and serves as solidarity should there ever be a sort of reckoning in terms of the domestic energy sources of each country. This should be done in a self-serving capacity and will guarantee the ability to exploit other resources in the future. The feasibility of this strategy is something that isnt spontaneous, but is something that Team 3 feels has been in back of any policymaker in the energy corridors of India and Pakistan. Gauging by the acknowledgment of Peak Oil Theory, something like this strategy proposed by Team 3 should have been propositioned a long time ago, however with the rivalry of these two

countries in years past, this issue has largely been neglected. With the ready depletion of crude oil, in order for countries to even function in a sensible capacity involves the governmental subsidization of alternative fuels to serve the energy needs of its citizens in terms of commercial, residential and the automotive needs. The trade-offs necessary to achieve this will come in the form of being aware that as key regional players in a restive area will require an understanding among neighbors amidst the political realities of the region that need to be addressed. One must understand that both of these countries have got a huge energy deficit that requires the utmost attention. If exploiting renewables can solder a reputation of sensibility, then the Indian and Pakistani governments can stand to cool tensions to jointly address the concern of the energy deficit. After gauging the willingness of the Indian and Pakistani governments to come to an understanding based on the necessity to act, Team 3 sees that despite the measures needed to focus on renewables, for India coal will still have a shelf-life thats going to ensure the use of it, even onto the point of ready depletion. With one-third of all of the worlds coal supply being in India, the Indian government will have to see to it that despite having an adequate supply of it to last for decades into the future, the impact on the environment and the biosphere is irrefutable and the path towards a sustainable future depends upon the minimization of its use. The Pakistanis have a surplus of LNG at their disposal that they intend on transporting and manufacturing for a period well into the future. The benefit here is the ability to exploit natural gas in such a way that ensures a modicum of self-sufficiency and it is something that can be done in a sovereign fashion. What Pakistan requires is the basic infrastructure within its borders to meet the demand of natural gas. Foreign direct investment is intuitively aligned with the security needs of Pakistan. In the age of globalization and with Pakistan being involved in sort of a proxy

war in the effort against terrorism, the issue of ensuring security will in turn show to outside multinationals and other countries such as the US that Pakistan is taking huge strides to address meaningfully its security situation. Making energy affordable to the citizens of India and Pakistan is something should be included in the finalization of the draft strategy. As we speak, these two countries experience spontaneous blackouts and outages of electricity with many in their respective populations not having the privilege to have any electricity at all. Standardization of each of their respective energy sectors with coverage for people in the most rural of locales in these countries should be an issue. With the nationalization of many companies in India and Pakistan as well as having many private entities who are involved in the energy trade, the governments of both of these countries need to focus on more fair and even distribution of electricity and energy to address the windfall of energy. With the allocation of capital, national, private as well as foreign direct investment, India can serve as an example to Pakistan that leaving mechanisms to boost the productivity of the energy sector is something that is done to ensure innovation and something that addresses being in conformity with the developed world, something that both of these countries aspire to become. In conformity with the standards of the developed world to be contractually bound to environmental regulations, India and Pakistan must set up regulatory agencies much like the United States EPA and other nonprofits and NGOs. As countries that aspire for upward social mobility for their citizens, these two countries leave much to speculation and it is evident that environmental and ecological hazards are things that have curtailed business and slowed growth. If India and Pakistan can make the effort to safeguard their commerce in the energy sector while at the same time being involved with the global community to assess what needs to be done to

address environmental concerns, then they can ensure the guarantee of ready help in terms of safe practices and foreign capital into their countries. Starting a carbon footprint tax is a start and can serve to make sure that fossil fuels will be used very sparingly. Setting financial incentives to businesses and industries to be mindful of practices is also a start. But the Indian and Pakistani governments must make these mandatory and compulsory measures to ensure even and equitable treatment of its citizens and that of the environment while incentivizing their energy corridors. Gauging success involves knowing how much progress has been displayed by the Indians and Pakistanis in their respective energy sectors. Both of these countries will in the future display massive economic potential through to the year 2050, so in terms of an environmental assessment being the set standard instead of the standard of assessing how much has been gained financially is the standard that Team 3 has in mind. India and Pakistan both look outwards towards incipient thriving economies throughout the world to see what they can learn. The resolve of the Indian government to be a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol and be a member of the IAEA is tantamount to their mindset that financial capital isnt everything, but ensuring that the biosphere and the environment will be taken cared of in the future will be its path towards global sustainability and will serve as an example to their peers. Pakistan on the other hand, acknowledges that it has got an energy deficit and is taking precautionary measures to address security concerns which will in turn guarantee financial investment from other nations and multinationals. Both of these countries to a certain degree have set up an infrastructure to serve as the means of their energy sectors but coming to adroitly address expectations to the year 2050 involves the utmost discernment of what it is that the planet needs, and what is self-serving to these countries themselves. One can anticipate that they cannot do it alone and need outside assistance. Doing so involves a resolve to ensure success,

profitability, goodwill, cooperation, and periodic renewal of set standards. If India and Pakistan can resolve their differences and work as a team, then guaranteeing regional cooperation in a restive area can and ultimately will portray itself to be a success story and the world can thereby rest easy knowing that one powder-keg of a region has been stabilized and that there will have been commerce dictated by a sense of understanding of what it is that is needed instead of what has lucrative potential in the short-term but cannot be seen yielding anything for the benefit of future posterities.

Works Cited Yergin, Daniel. 2011. The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World. New York: The Penguin Press.