Market Outlook 19th Dec 2012

Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
Domestic Indices
Dealers Diary
The Indian market is expected to in green mirroring positive opening trades in most
of the Asian markets, tracking higher US markets.
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.6
Nifty
0.7
120.3 19,365
38.9
5,897
MID CAP
0.5
36.9
7,077
The U.S. markets extended gains into a second session Tuesday, rising on signs of
progress on Capitol Hill in reaching an accord to avoid steep spending cuts and
tax increases next year. The markets continued to benefit from optimism about
potentially avoiding the looming fiscal cliff. Positive sentiment was also generated
by a report from the National Association of Home Builders showing that U.S.
homebuilder confidence improved for the eighth consecutive month in December
as housing market index climbed to 47 in December from a revised 45 in
November.
SMALL CAP
0.6
43.8
7,431
BSE HC
0.7
54.9
8,071
BSE PSU
0.6
44.0
7,228
BANKEX
0.3
49.1 14,322
AUTO
0.4
50.0 11,287
1.8
191.1 10,947
Indian markets rose notably on expectations the RBI would ease its policy on
January 29, when it meets for third quarter review. The central bank left its key
policy rates as well as cash reserve ratio unchanged yesterday in its monetary
policy review, but hinted easing of rates in January.
Global Indices
METAL
OIL & GAS
BSE IT
(0.2)
(17.3)
8,384
0.5
27.2
5,549
(Pts)
(Close)
Chg (%)
Dow Jones
0.9
NASDAQ
1.5
43.9
3,055
FTSE
0.4
23.8
5,936
Markets Today
Nikkei
1.0
94.1
9,923
Hang Seng
(0.1)
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,303 / 5,875 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,458 19,551 / 5,927 5,958 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,303 / 5,875 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,210 19,056 / 5,845 5,793 levels.
Straits Times
(0.1)
(1.9)
3,157
0.1
2.1
2,162
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
1.4
0.6
$42.0
WIT
0.2
0.0
$8.7
IBN
1.3
0.6
$44.6
HDB
0.1
0.1
$41.0
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
NIFTY
19,056
5,793
19,210
5,845
19,303
5,875
19,458
5,927
19,551
5,958
News Analysis
Monetary policy treads cautiously on inflation concerns

Lok Sabha passes Banking Bill, paving way for new banking licenses
Lok Sabha passes Companies bill
GSM operators lost 9mn customers in November: COAI
MM to buy out Navistars stake in the Indian JV
NALCO resumes operations at bauxite mine
Sales
2,592
743
Net
9,49
(280)
MTD
13,204
(2,153)
YTD
118,224
(19,695)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
Stock Futures
1,309
2,995
1,323
3,096
(14)
(101)
12,711
34,895
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Unitech
Company
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
35
5.8
JPPower
222
5.5
Hindustan Zinc
REC
245
5.1
TTK Prestige
3,544
(2.5)
JSW Steel
804
4.8
IPCA Lab
487
(2.2)
Shriram Transport
766
4.7
Max India
240
(2.1)
Zee Entertainment
www.angelbroking.com
NSE
Advances
1,649
844
Declines
1,289
614
131
69
Volumes (` cr)
FII Derivatives (December 18, 2012)
Company
(18.9) 22,495
BSE
Unchanged
Net Inflows (December 17, 2012)

Purch
3,541
463
Indian ADR
Advances / Declines
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
` cr
FII
MFs
Shanghai Com
115.6 13,351
39
(6.9)
139
(2.7)
BSE
3,066
NSE
13,976
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
Monetary policy treads cautiously on inflation concerns

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review
maintained status quo on rates against market expectations of a 25bp cut in the
CRR. The RBI maintained its key policy rate the repo rate unchanged at 8.0%.
Consequently, the reverse repo rate remains at 7.0% and the marginal standing
facility (MSF) rate and bank rate remain unchanged at 9.0%. The CRR too remains
unchanged at 4.25% of banks net demand and time liabilities (NDTL).
Headline WPI inflation for the month of November 2012 moderated for the
second consecutive month to 7.2% yoy as compared to 7.5% yoy during October
2012. Deceleration in the headline print comes on the back of moderation in
inflation of manufactured products mainly due to softening commodity prices and
the lagged impact of rupee appreciation. Core (manufactured non-food) inflation
for the month of November edged to a two-year low of 4.5%, well within the RBIs
comfort level.
Outlook
We believe that despite the positive surprises in the recent inflation prints, the RBI
has treaded cautiously since it expects inflation to inch upwards over the next two
months. In addition, the RBI has also indicated that despite easing inflationary
pressures food and commodity prices remain elevated and the same pose a risk in
the face of domestic supply constraints.
On the positive note, we believe that the RBIs policy stance has increasingly shifted
towards supporting growth rather than focusing purely on inflation management.
In addition, it has further reiterated its guidance given in the 2QFY2013 policy
review in October on monetary policy easing in the fourth quarter with an ebbing
of inflationary pressures.
Going ahead, the outlook for inflation is expected to improve since softening
commodity prices along with a high base are likely to lend a positive bias on
bringing down headline inflation. We expect the RBI to ease the repo rate by 25bp
50bp in the fourth quarter.
Lok Sabha passes Banking Bill, paving way for new

banking licenses
The passage of amendments to the Banking Laws in the lower house of the
parliament is expected to pave the way for issuance of the new bank licenses by
the RBI. Amongst various other things, the bill offers vital powers to RBI, firstly to
supervise group companies (i.e to oversee connected lending) and secondly to
supersede the entire board and make changes that can last upto 12 months (in a
way, power to control banks in the event of non-compliance to necessary
standards). Additionally, for private banks, the bill makes voting rights
proportional to shareholding by removing existing cap of 10% (with a key
restriction entailing the RBI approval for acquisition of 5% or more of a bank's
paid-up capital) and for PSU banks, the cap on voting rights is raised from 1% to
10%. It allows PSU banks to use rights issues to access capital markets for raising
capital.
As per our long held view, based on the discussion paper and draft guidelines for
the issue of licenses, L&T (through L&T Finance) looks like the most eligible
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
candidate amongst corporates who have evinced interest in getting a bank license,
as it is not a promoter driven corporate and has the requisite financial strength
and corporate stature to promote a bank, in our view. However, post the sharp
run-up, we believe L&T finance stock is very expensively priced (to put it in
perspective, its market cap is similar to an existing new generation private bank,
which is also growing rapidly and has 3x L&T Finance Balance sheet and PAT).
Likely entry of new banks in the banking industry would also increase the
acquisition prospects of older private banks. Amongst the old private banks, we
like South Indian Bank, both as a standalone investment and also as a potential
acquisition candidate, keeping in mind current valuation parameters like P/ABV
and Market cap/Branch.
Dashboard - Old Private banks

Target
Price
Mcap
/branch
Tier-I (%)
FY2012
ROA
FY2012
ROE
TTM
P/ABV
TTM
P/E
NR
3.4
8.9
0.7
12.7
1.2
10.4
INGBK
NR
14.7
10.6
1.1
14.3
1.8
14.5
KVB
NR
12.2
13.1
1.5
20.8
1.8
9.8
FEDBK
Accum.
549
9.2
15.1
1.4
14.4
1.4
10.1
DHB
NR
2.1
7.4
(0.8)
(14.7)
0.9
KTKBK
NR
6.1
10.4
0.7
9.8
1.2
8.8
SIB
Buy
31
5.1
12.3
1.1
21.6
1.2
7.9
CUB
NR
9.5
12.5
1.7
24.9
2.1
9.6
DCB
NR
14.0
12.7
0.7
8.1
1.4
16.4
Bank
Reco
LVB
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: NR Not Rated
Lok Sabha passes Companies bill

The Lok Sabha on Tuesday passed amendments to the Companies Bill, 2011
which were first introduced in Parliament in 2008. The amendments when enacted
are expected to improve the quality of corporate governance by bringing about
greater transparency and accountability. Some of the amendments to the
Companies Bill are as follows:
prevent corporate frauds by strengthening the Serious Fraud Investigation

Office (SFIO) with statutory powers.
protect small investors by regulating entities such as chit funds
hold auditors of the company more accountable, also limiting the number of
companies an auditor can serve to 20.
hold directors more accountable
It also mandates that companies above a certain size spend at least 2% of

their net profit on corporate social responsibility activities.
The bill also provides for greater protection of minority shareholders and
employees.
It also mandates at least one woman director in certain companies to promote

gender diversity in the board.
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
GSM operators lost 9 mn customers in November: COAI

According to Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), GSM operators lost
9.28mn customers in November 2012, bringing the number of GSM users down
to 663.78mn at end of November. The top three GSM operators, having ~67%
market share, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea Cellular - together lost more than
6.74mn subscribers in November.
Market leader Bharti Airtel, which has a 27.7% share, lost 2.80mn users, pulling
down its customer base to 183.61mn as of November. Vodafones subscriber
base, too, dropped by 2.38mn to 150.76mn and Idea lost 1.56mn users in
November. Aircel lost 1.46mn users, which brought its user base down to
65.32mn at the end of November 2012. Uninor lost 437,915 users, while
Videocon lost 379,787 subscribers in the month. According to COAI, state-owned
BSNL did not add a single subscriber in November and had a 14.64% share in the
GSM market with 97.17mn subscribers. MTNL, another state-owned telecom
operator, was least affected as it lost only 741 users, taking its user base to 5.12
million. According to COAI data, subscriber base dropped the most in category A
circles (4.20mn) in November, followed by category B (3.43mn).
MM to buy out Navistars stake in the Indian JV

Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) has announced that it will buy out Navistars stake
in the commercial vehicle joint venture (JV), Mahindra Navistar Automotives Ltd
(MNAL) and Mahindra Navistar Engines Pvt Ltd (MNEPL) for `175cr (US$33mn).
The truck making JV, MNAL was formed in 2005 and the engine making JV,
MNEPL was formed in 2007. MM intends to acquire Navistars 49% stake in both
the JVs following necessary regulatory approval and make them wholly owned
subsidiaries. As per the agreement, post the stake buyout, Navistar can continue
sourcing components from India while MM would continue to provide engineering
services to Navistar. Further, the Navistar group would continue to support MM
through a license agreement and extend necessary support to MNAL and MNEPL
for the purposes of business continuity. While the exact reason of the stake sale by
Navistar is not known, reports indicate that this could be due to the companys
focus on turning around its core business in the US. We believe that the complete
ownership of operations of MNAL and MNEPL would augur well for MM in the
long run. However in the near term, MM would require to infuse more capital as
both the entities are loss making. MNAL and MNEPL reported a combined loss of
`375cr in FY2012. At `964, MM is trading at 15.4x FY2014E earnings. Post the
sharp run-up (21% over last three months) in the stock price, we recommend
Neutral rating on the stock.
NALCO resumes operations at bauxite mine

NALCO has resumed operations at Panchpatmali bauxite mine in the Koraput
district of Odisha after getting a temporary one-year permit. It has reserves of over
310mn tonne of bauxite. Mining operations at Panchpatmali mine were
suspended after Nalcos 30-year lease expired on November 16, 2012.
Nevertheless, as Nalco is a public sector unit, the soft stance from the government
agencies does not surprise us. Hence, we maintain our estimates and Reduce
rating on the stock with a target price of `44.
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
Economic and Political News
India's US government debt holding dips to $58.9 billion

Indo-Asean FTA in services & investments to be announced on December 20
Gujarat polls: Record voter turnout of 71.32%
Corporate News
Aurobindo gets final nod from US FDA for anti-HIV drug

Eros promoters to offload 2.8% stake by OFS
Jagran Prakashan raise `150cr via NCDs
RIL has agreed to CAG audit: Oil Ministry
Tata Sons appoints Cyrus Mistry Chairman from December 28
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
December 19, 2012

December 20, 2012
7:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Nov
894.00
871.00
7:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Nov
868.00
875.00
7:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Dec 15
343.00
360.00
8:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Dec A
(26.90)
(26.50)
7:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
3Q T
2.70
2.80
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
December 21, 2012
3:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
December 27, 2012
8:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
Millions
Nov
4.79
4.90
% Change
3Q F
(0.10)
(0.10)
S.A./ 1985=100
Dec
73.70
71.00
8:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Nov
368.00
378.00
January 1, 2013
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
50.60
--
January 2, 2013
2:25PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec F
46.30
--
3:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Dec
49.10
49.10
January 3, 2013
2:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Dec
5.00
--
January 4, 2013
2:25PM
Germany PMI Services
7:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
7:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
5:29PM
China
5:29PM
China
5:29PM
Value
Dec F
52.10
--
Thousands
Dec
146.00
--
Dec
7.70
--
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Dec
2.00
--
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Dec
10.10
--
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Dec
6.40
--
5:29PM
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
(4.20)
--
5:29PM
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Dec
2.90
--
5:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Jan 10
0.50
0.50
6:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
Jan 10
0.75
--
3:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Nov
(3.00)
--
January 13, 2013
5:29PM
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
4Q
7.40
--
January 14, 2013
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Dec
7.24
--
11:00AM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Nov
8.20
--
January 15, 2013
7:00PM
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Dec
(0.80)
--
January 16, 2013
3:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Dec
2.20
--
7:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Dec
(0.30)
--
7:45PM
US
Industrial Production
Dec
1.05
--
January 23, 2013
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Dec
(3.00)
--
January 31, 2013
12:45AM
US
FOMC rate decision
Jan 30
0.25
--
February 14, 2013
12:30PM
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
4Q P
0.40
--
3:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
4Q A
(0.10)
--
January 9, 2013
January 10, 2013
January 11, 2013
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
11.2
10.0
8.5
7.6
7.5
8.2
6.0
8.0
6.0
6.7
5.7
6.1
5.3 5.5 5.3
4.3
4.0
2.7
2.0
2.5
2.3
1.0
3.5
(0.7)
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
(2.0)
(2.8)
(4.0)
(0.1)
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
8.0
7.7
7.5
7.4
(1.3)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
7.7
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
(2.0)
Nov-11
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
Source: CSO, Angel Research
7.6
7.6
Services PMI
8.1
58.0
7.5
56.0
7.5
7.2
54.0
6.9
52.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
48.0
Nov-11
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
50.0
Dec-11
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
8.2
8.0
9.2
9.0
4QFY09
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Exports yoy growth
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
45.0
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.00
8.00
30.0
7.00
7.00
15.0
6.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
4.25
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
4.00
Dec-11
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
5.00
Nov-11
(30.0)
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
(15.0)
Nov-11
0.0
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
152
2,956
1,466
1,686
14.8
14.8
7.0
8.1
21.7
18.8
4.6
3.9
22.6
22.5
2.1
1.8
United Phosphorus
Buy
124
170
5,727
8,421
9,263
16.5
16.5
15.0
17.0
8.3
7.3
1.2
1.1
15.6
15.5
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Accumulate
248
270
4,231
2,911
3,321
16.2
16.2
17.3
19.8
14.3
12.5
3.9
3.1
31.1
27.6
1.4
1.2
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
88
96
4,440
13,713
15,341
11.2
11.2
12.5
14.8
7.1
5.9
1.3
1.1
20.2
19.9
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Accumulate
28
31
7,330
14,490
16,606
9.5
9.6
2.2
2.9
12.4
9.7
2.3
2.0
13.6
16.1
0.6
0.5
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
360
543
1,103
1,240
11.0
11.3
39.1
45.0
9.2
8.0
1.7
1.6
19.5
22.8
0.5
0.4
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,096
60,650
21,121
23,642
18.4
18.5
108.7
122.6
19.3
17.1
8.0
6.4
46.2
41.6
2.5
2.1
Bharat Forge
Buy
266
324
6,200
6,754
7,565
15.5
15.7
18.8
23.2
14.2
11.5
2.5
2.1
18.5
19.7
1.1
0.9
Bosch India*
Neutral
9,063
28,457
8,776
10,276
16.6
18.0
331.9
417.7
27.3
21.7
5.1
4.2
18.7
19.5
2.9
2.4
CEAT
Buy
105
163
358
4,989
5,634
8.2
8.5
27.1
40.8
3.9
2.6
0.5
0.4
13.2
17.2
0.3
0.2
Exide Industries
Accumulate
141
155
11,985
6,229
7,200
14.8
15.8
7.2
9.0
19.7
15.8
3.4
2.9
18.5
19.9
1.6
1.3
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,738
2,887
1,489
1,750
16.5
17.5
103.3
126.9
16.8
13.7
3.3
2.7
21.3
21.6
1.7
1.4
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
1,882
37,571
24,743
27,996
14.8
15.2
118.2
130.4
15.9
14.4
6.8
5.4
48.3
41.9
1.2
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
124
165
509
7,517
8,329
6.6
6.6
37.2
41.3
3.3
3.0
0.6
0.5
18.8
17.8
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Neutral
964
59,206
40,035
46,272
11.5
11.6
54.7
62.8
17.6
15.4
3.9
3.3
24.3
23.4
1.2
1.0
Maruti
Neutral
1,475
42,608
42,019
50,246
7.3
8.6
66.1
94.4
22.3
15.6
2.5
2.2
11.9
15.1
0.9
0.7
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
200
11,757
24,285
27,317
6.7
7.2
8.1
10.6
24.9
18.9
5.2
4.3
22.9
24.7
0.6
0.6
Subros
Buy
31
35
185
1,286
1,479
9.4
9.7
2.6
5.1
11.9
6.1
0.7
0.6
5.6
10.3
0.4
0.4
Tata Motors
Accumulate
298
319
79,357 192,330 219,770
12.8
13.1
37.0
44.5
8.1
6.7
2.2
1.7
31.2
28.9
0.5
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
40
45
1,910
7,466
8,290
6.2
6.3
4.8
5.6
8.4
7.2
1.4
1.3
18.2
18.7
0.2
0.2
ABB*
Sell
707
573
14,983
7,796
9,907
4.8
7.8
9.2
22.0
76.9
32.1
5.6
4.9
7.5
16.4
1.9
1.5
BGR Energy
Neutral
263
1,899
3,605
4,542
11.8
10.7
25.1
27.9
10.5
9.4
1.5
1.4
31.1
27.1
1.0
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
230
56,319
47,801
43,757
18.5
18.0
24.6
21.8
9.4
10.6
2.8
2.4
33.5
24.5
1.0
1.1
Blue Star
Buy
191
242
1,720
2,763
2,948
3.1
5.6
2.6
8.6
72.7
22.4
4.2
3.7
5.9
17.6
0.7
0.7
Crompton Greaves
Buy
118
145
7,586
12,370
14,277
5.2
7.3
4.0
7.8
29.6
15.2
2.0
1.8
6.9
12.6
0.6
0.6
Jyoti Structures
Buy
45
53
370
2,794
3,048
10.6
10.6
9.2
11.7
4.9
3.9
0.5
0.5
10.9
12.5
0.4
0.4
KEC International
Accumulate
65
73
1,662
6,858
7,431
7.1
7.5
8.3
9.8
7.8
6.6
1.3
1.1
25.1
24.0
0.4
0.4
LMW
Reduce
2,177
1,992
2,452
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
15.2
13.1
2.5
2.3
17.4
18.4
0.6
0.4
Thermax
Neutral
603
7,185
5,514
5,813
9.3
10.2
28.1
31.2
21.5
19.3
3.9
3.4
19.2
18.5
1.2
1.1
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,410
26,480
11,085
12,415
21.6
21.4
79.4
83.1
17.8
17.0
3.5
3.1
20.1
19.2
2.1
1.8
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
206
31,762
10,272
11,884
26.4
26.1
11.5
12.9
18.0
16.0
3.9
3.5
20.8
21.1
2.7
2.2
India Cements
Neutral
89
2,728
4,293
4,666
17.7
18.1
8.6
10.8
10.3
8.3
0.8
0.7
7.5
9.0
1.0
0.9
J K Lakshmi Cements
Accumulate
144
143
1,764
2,082
2,423
22.9
23.1
20.8
22.5
6.9
6.4
1.2
1.0
18.4
17.4
0.9
1.2
Madras Cements
Neutral
221
5,258
3,814
4,045
29.3
27.5
18.7
19.2
11.8
11.5
2.2
1.9
19.9
17.4
2.0
1.7
Shree Cements^
Neutral
4,478
15,601
5,701
6,210
29.7
28.1
240.7
260.7
18.6
17.2
4.5
3.7
27.1
23.6
2.2
1.8
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
2,011
55,144
21,368
24,043
22.5
23.5
103.5
121.4
19.4
16.6
3.6
3.1
20.2
20.1
2.5
2.3
207
304
1,088
2,034
2,315
22.4
22.4
27.1
31.7
7.6
6.5
0.9
0.8
13.1
13.4
1.8
2.1
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
13
245
2,262
2,522
6.7
7.5
1.5
2.7
8.9
5.0
0.4
0.4
4.4
7.5
0.4
0.4
IRB Infra
Buy
129
164
4,286
3,843
4,212
43.1
43.6
16.8
17.8
7.7
7.2
1.3
1.2
18.3
17.0
3.3
3.6
ITNL
Accumulate
210
225
4,079
6,564
7,054
27.2
27.4
26.3
29.0
8.0
7.2
1.3
1.1
14.0
11.8
2.7
2.8
IVRCL Infra
Neutral
44
1,349
4,249
6,897
7.8
8.2
0.3
3.3
142.5
13.3
0.6
0.6
0.4
4.4
0.9
0.6
Jaiprakash Asso.
Neutral
Larsen & Toubro
Accumulate
Nagarjuna Const.
102
21,851
13,842
15,863
26.9
26.4
3.7
4.6
27.9
22.4
1.7
1.6
6.2
7.3
3.0
2.7
1,656
1,748
101,828
60,556
69,167
11.2
11.6
73.8
85.5
22.5
19.4
3.6
3.1
13.5
14.1
1.8
1.6
Reduce
54
44
1,392
5,947
6,569
8.5
8.6
3.1
4.1
17.5
13.2
0.6
0.5
3.3
4.2
0.6
0.6
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
59
1,958
11,892
13,116
9.0
9.0
1.8
3.2
32.6
18.3
0.7
0.6
2.5
3.7
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
135
168
2,043
2,344
2,804
10.6
10.7
7.2
8.7
18.8
15.6
2.3
2.0
13.0
13.5
1.2
1.1
Simplex Infra
Buy
214
251
1,059
6,882
8,032
9.1
9.1
23.2
31.3
9.2
6.8
0.8
0.7
9.1
11.2
0.5
0.5
Allahabad Bank
Accumulate
168
181
8,400
6,392
7,238
2.7
2.8
30.3
33.3
5.6
5.1
0.8
0.7
14.8
14.5
Andhra Bank
Neutral
117
6,572
4,731
5,431
2.9
3.0
21.5
21.8
5.5
5.4
0.9
0.8
15.2
13.8
Axis Bank
Accumulate
1,351
1,550
57,669
15,686
18,687
3.1
3.2
116.8
138.0
11.6
9.8
2.1
1.8
20.0
20.2
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
850
33,270
15,436
18,208
2.5
2.6
111.8
137.4
7.6
6.2
1.1
1.0
15.8
17.0
Bank of India
Accumulate
322
334
18,453
12,491
14,883
2.2
2.4
43.8
63.7
7.3
5.1
1.0
0.8
12.1
15.8
Bank of Maharashtra
Accumulate
59
64
3,464
3,563
3,876
3.1
3.1
9.7
12.0
6.1
4.9
0.8
0.7
14.6
16.1
Canara Bank
Buy
472
544
20,916
10,699
12,213
2.1
2.2
67.3
80.1
7.0
5.9
1.0
0.9
13.7
14.6
Central Bank
Neutral
83
6,102
7,171
8,236
2.5
2.6
16.4
21.5
5.1
3.9
0.9
0.7
12.7
14.9
Corporation Bank
Accumulate
448
480
6,630
4,780
5,569
2.0
2.1
101.8
99.2
4.4
4.5
0.7
0.7
17.0
14.7
Dena Bank
Accumulate
120
132
4,185
3,087
3,453
2.7
2.8
25.9
24.1
4.6
5.0
0.8
0.7
19.4
15.6
Federal Bank
Neutral
497
8,503
2,617
2,968
3.3
3.2
45.9
51.7
10.9
9.6
1.4
1.2
13.1
13.3
Financials
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
HDFC
Neutral
846
130,438
7,336
8,802
3.5
3.5
31.5
37.8
26.9
22.4
5.4
4.8
34.8
32.1
HDFC Bank
Neutral
676
159,833
21,696
26,811
4.4
4.5
28.7
36.0
23.6
18.8
4.5
3.8
20.7
22.0
ICICI Bank
Accumulate
1,149
1,296
132,069
22,271
26,690
3.0
3.0
69.2
83.1
16.6
13.8
2.0
1.9
14.2
15.7
IDBI Bank
Accumulate
111
119
14,184
7,684
9,264
1.8
2.1
15.6
22.0
7.1
5.1
0.8
0.7
10.9
13.9
Indian Bank
Buy
192
230
8,271
5,874
6,551
3.2
3.2
40.6
41.8
4.7
4.6
0.8
0.7
18.1
16.4
IOB
Accumulate
86
89
6,866
7,050
8,313
2.3
2.5
12.3
19.9
7.0
4.3
0.6
0.6
8.8
13.1
J & K Bank
Accumulate
1,340
1,456
6,495
2,762
2,885
3.6
3.6
226.7
193.0
5.9
6.9
1.3
1.2
24.4
17.7
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
283
313
14,269
1,799
2,255
2.3
2.4
20.3
27.3
13.9
10.4
2.2
1.9
16.9
19.7
Oriental Bank
Accumulate
353
370
10,312
6,277
7,090
2.6
2.7
60.5
65.1
5.8
5.4
0.9
0.8
15.0
14.4
Punjab Natl.Bank
Accumulate
844
890
28,640
19,652
22,601
3.2
3.3
135.0
164.3
6.3
5.1
1.1
0.9
16.3
17.3
South Ind.Bank
Accumulate
26
29
3,528
1,556
1,750
2.8
2.7
3.5
3.9
7.6
6.9
1.3
1.1
19.1
16.9
St Bk of India
Accumulate
2,371
2,520
159,132
61,883
71,546
3.4
3.4
227.2
257.5
10.4
9.2
1.8
1.5
17.8
17.7
Syndicate Bank
Accumulate
134
139
8,051
6,756
7,783
3.0
3.0
26.3
27.1
5.1
4.9
0.9
0.8
18.3
16.6
UCO Bank
Neutral
80
5,328
5,234
6,097
2.3
2.4
11.8
14.7
6.8
5.4
1.1
0.9
11.9
13.4
Union Bank
Accumulate
275
285
15,132
9,912
11,536
2.8
2.9
40.4
46.7
6.8
5.9
1.1
1.0
16.1
16.4
United Bank
Buy
76
91
2,760
3,500
3,912
2.6
2.8
15.8
21.2
4.8
3.6
0.6
0.6
13.1
15.7
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
64
3,152
2,354
2,754
2.0
2.2
7.4
10.2
8.6
6.2
0.9
0.8
9.3
11.9
Yes Bank
Buy
468
542
16,715
3,270
4,240
2.8
3.0
34.5
42.2
13.6
11.1
2.9
2.4
23.5
23.5
4,291
41,163
11,198
13,184
16.2
16.2
123.7
146.4
34.7
29.3
11.8
9.3
38.1
35.4
3.6
3.0
493
584
5,894
5,627
6,581
4.9
5.7
18.3
24.7
27.0
20.0
9.8
7.5
39.1
42.7
1.0
0.8
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
1,407
19,133
3,146
3,573
20.6
21.4
36.4
42.5
38.7
33.1
35.8
30.0
102.0
98.5
5.8
5.1
Dabur India
Neutral
130
22,641
6,124
7,101
17.0
16.8
4.5
5.2
29.1
24.8
12.0
9.5
43.2
41.5
3.7
3.1
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
3,753
15,784
3,124
3,663
17.1
17.6
104.5
123.8
35.9
30.3
11.2
9.0
34.4
32.8
4.7
3.9
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
724
24,626
6,355
7,548
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.6
31.7
26.2
7.3
6.0
26.4
26.1
4.0
3.3
HUL
Neutral
525
113,405
25,350
28,974
13.3
13.5
14.7
17.1
35.6
30.8
28.2
19.9
84.5
75.8
4.2
3.7
ITC
Neutral
294
231,055
29,409
34,060
35.7
36.1
9.3
10.9
31.5
26.9
10.4
8.7
35.8
35.3
7.6
6.5
Marico
Neutral
222
14,316
4,840
5,643
13.1
13.1
6.2
7.8
36.0
28.5
6.9
5.6
25.4
22.6
3.0
2.5
Nestle*
Neutral
4,777
46,061
8,529
10,079
20.8
21.1
113.1
137.8
42.3
34.7
25.4
17.7
70.5
60.2
5.5
4.5
Tata Global
Neutral
165
10,216
7,207
7,927
9.7
10.0
6.6
7.8
25.0
21.1
2.5
2.4
8.6
9.5
1.4
1.2
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
632
43,915
24,214
26,772
19.5
18.1
44.0
48.0
14.4
13.2
3.4
2.9
24.0
22.0
1.7
1.5
90
135
2,660
1,944
2,159
21.8
21.1
11.4
12.2
7.9
7.3
2.0
1.7
26.4
24.1
1.1
0.9
IT
HCL Tech^
Neutral
Hexaware*
Buy
Infosys
Accumulate
2,271
2,573
130,385
39,174
41,580
29.5
30.4
159.2
171.6
14.3
13.2
3.4
3.1
24.1
23.1
2.8
2.5
Infotech Enterprises
Neutral
191
2,132
1,886
2,032
17.9
17.3
18.7
20.2
10.2
9.5
1.5
1.3
14.9
14.0
0.8
0.7
KPIT Cummins
Buy
111
132
1,986
2,195
2,317
15.5
15.0
10.7
12.1
10.4
9.2
2.2
1.8
21.0
19.8
0.9
0.8
Mahindra Satyam
Accumulate
106
115
12,517
7,597
8,141
20.0
18.8
9.7
10.4
11.0
10.2
3.0
2.3
27.5
22.9
1.2
1.1
Mindtree
Accumulate
708
747
2,908
2,324
2,437
20.0
17.7
73.3
74.7
9.7
9.5
2.3
1.9
24.1
19.7
1.0
0.8
Mphasis&
Neutral
379
7,973
5,700
5,993
18.0
16.9
37.0
37.3
10.3
10.2
1.5
1.3
14.3
12.6
0.9
0.8
NIIT
Buy
31
36
507
1,048
1,161
9.3
10.9
4.2
6.2
7.3
5.0
0.8
0.7
10.5
14.1
0.3
0.2
Persistent
Neutral
492
1,966
1,261
1,352
26.4
24.7
48.2
54.0
10.2
9.1
1.9
1.6
19.0
17.9
1.2
1.1
TCS
Accumulate
1,211
1,410
237,000
61,053
67,313
28.7
29.1
69.7
76.2
17.4
15.9
5.7
4.6
32.6
29.1
3.8
3.4
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
946
1,070
12,091
6,603
7,150
19.8
18.4
92.9
102.0
10.2
9.3
2.4
1.9
23.7
21.0
1.9
1.7
Wipro
Accumulate
376
421
92,586
43,219
47,241
20.0
20.0
26.1
28.1
14.4
13.4
2.8
2.4
19.3
17.9
1.8
1.5
D B Corp
Buy
220
259
4,025
1,581
1,784
23.3
25.0
11.6
14.4
19.0
15.2
3.7
3.2
21.0
22.3
2.5
2.1
HT Media
Accumulate
103
113
2,409
2,111
2,272
15.0
15.2
7.4
8.3
13.9
12.4
1.5
1.4
11.3
11.4
0.8
0.7
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
101
117
3,197
1,503
1,681
23.1
23.1
6.4
7.3
15.8
13.9
3.9
3.5
25.8
26.5
2.3
2.0
PVR
Neutral
286
826
682
786
17.3
16.9
17.6
19.7
16.2
14.6
1.9
1.7
14.9
14.5
1.5
1.3
Sun TV Network
Neutral
414
16,329
1,942
2,237
77.2
75.5
17.6
19.1
23.5
21.7
5.9
5.3
25.8
25.2
7.7
6.6
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
456
9,681
11,307
14,287
29.5
29.1
45.1
51.0
10.1
8.9
1.2
1.0
12.2
12.2
2.9
2.3
Coal India
Neutral
353
222,778
66,666
70,292
25.7
27.3
24.2
26.6
14.6
13.3
4.3
3.5
33.1
29.1
2.4
2.1
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
24
29
829
1,984
2,074
10.6
11.6
0.8
2.0
28.7
11.8
0.5
0.2
1.7
4.1
0.6
0.5
Hind. Zinc
Neutral
139
58,605
12,446
13,538
52.3
52.9
15.0
16.4
9.3
8.5
1.8
1.5
21.4
19.7
3.0
2.3
Hindalco
Neutral
127
24,401
79,148
89,258
9.4
9.0
15.0
15.6
8.5
8.2
0.7
0.7
8.8
8.4
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
804
17,930
39,586
41,459
17.6
17.0
78.7
90.1
10.2
8.9
1.0
0.9
10.2
10.7
0.8
0.8
MOIL
Neutral
265
4,444
941
1,019
47.3
48.3
25.8
28.1
10.2
9.4
1.6
1.4
16.7
16.2
2.3
1.9
Monnet Ispat
Accumulate
299
344
1,926
2,501
3,264
22.2
24.6
41.8
55.2
7.2
5.4
0.7
0.7
11.3
13.4
1.9
1.3
Nalco
Neutral
NMDC
Buy
SAIL
Neutral
Media
Metals & Mining
49
12,538
6,898
7,841
9.9
14.7
2.0
3.2
24.5
15.3
1.1
1.0
4.3
6.8
1.3
1.2
163
198
64,446
11,209
12,525
78.4
78.3
18.5
20.6
8.8
7.9
2.2
1.8
27.0
24.6
3.7
3.1
88
36,452
47,252
60,351
14.2
14.8
9.6
11.7
9.2
7.5
0.8
0.8
9.4
10.6
1.2
1.0
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Sesa Goa
Neutral
195
16,965
4,551
6,640
32.8
34.4
33.7
39.3
5.8
5.0
1.0
0.9
18.3
18.3
4.2
2.9
Sterlite Inds
Neutral
118
39,773
43,185
45,442
23.3
23.7
16.8
17.9
7.0
6.6
0.8
0.7
11.6
11.2
0.9
0.8
Tata Steel
Buy
414
463
8.3
9.5
22.0
44.5
18.8
9.3
0.9
0.8
4.9
9.3
0.6
0.5
Sarda
Buy
128
153
460
1,442
1,494
17.6
17.3
27.2
28.7
4.7
4.5
0.5
0.5
11.5
11.0
0.7
0.6
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
48
73
647
2,694
2,906
14.6
16.6
16.4
20.8
2.9
2.3
0.3
0.3
11.4
12.8
0.5
0.3
Buy
120
143
380
2,342
2,470
13.7
15.3
27.7
33.8
4.3
3.5
0.4
0.4
10.9
11.4
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Buy
328
382
62,549
17,567
17,643
76.2
72.3
61.1
56.8
5.4
5.8
1.1
0.9
22.0
17.5
2.7
2.3
GAIL
Neutral
347
44,073
46,652
54,142
15.7
15.7
34.0
35.3
10.2
9.9
1.8
1.6
18.5
16.8
0.7
0.5
ONGC
Buy
256
312
219,234 147,139 154,821
33.9
33.7
30.7
32.3
8.4
7.9
1.4
1.3
18.3
17.2
1.2
1.1
Reliance Industries
Neutral
831
272,099 362,700 380,031
7.9
8.0
60.0
63.3
13.9
13.1
1.3
1.2
11.1
10.6
0.7
0.7
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
305
3,913
3,128
3,707
13.2
11.7
22.8
23.5
13.4
13.0
4.0
3.6
33.2
29.2
1.1
0.9
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
263
3,688
3,213
3,643
23.3
23.5
24.3
25.7
10.8
10.2
2.5
2.1
25.0
22.1
1.2
1.1
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Accumulate
162
183
12,128
30,077
33,570
6.6
6.3
15.1
15.3
10.7
10.6
2.7
2.2
28.4
23.1
0.4
0.4
75
4,220
1,079
1,034
91.8
91.9
8.8
8.4
8.6
8.9
1.4
1.3
17.9
15.0
3.6
3.7
Alembic Pharma
Buy
69
91
1,301
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
10.5
7.6
2.6
2.0
27.9
29.9
0.9
0.8
Aurobindo Pharma
Neutral
191
5,556
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
11.8
12.6
16.2
15.2
2.0
1.7
17.9
16.4
1.5
1.3
Aventis*
Neutral
2,255
5,194
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.1
104.4
23.7
21.6
4.2
3.3
18.6
17.0
3.3
2.8
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
873
926
17,872
6,148
7,386
18.6
19.6
32.7
44.8
26.7
19.5
5.9
4.7
23.7
26.6
3.2
2.6
Cipla
Neutral
412
33,116
8,151
9,130
25.0
24.0
19.5
20.9
21.2
19.7
3.7
3.2
18.8
17.2
3.8
3.3
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,840
31,229
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
22.0
19.8
4.5
3.8
22.4
20.8
3.2
2.8
Dishman Pharma
Buy
119
145
956
1,280
1,536
20.2
20.2
10.4
14.5
11.4
8.2
1.0
0.9
8.7
11.0
1.4
1.2
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,062
17,468
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
27.1
25.0
7.8
7.0
20.1
26.3
5.8
5.0
Indoco Remedies
Buy
67
89
619
685
837
15.2
15.2
7.4
8.9
9.1
7.6
1.4
1.2
16.4
17.0
1.1
0.9
Ipca labs
Neutral
487
6,138
2,850
3,474
21.0
21.0
29.9
37.3
16.3
13.1
3.9
3.1
26.7
26.4
2.3
1.9
Lupin
Accumulate
609
652
27,230
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
26.3
31.3
23.1
19.4
5.4
4.3
26.0
24.7
3.3
2.7
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
502
21,227
12,046
11,980
18.0
15.8
31.3
29.8
16.1
16.9
5.5
4.4
39.1
28.9
1.8
1.7
Sun Pharma
Neutral
736
76,132
9,752
12,134
41.6
41.6
26.0
28.2
28.3
26.1
5.3
4.5
20.3
18.8
6.9
5.3
CESC
Neutral
307
3,838
5,218
5,644
24.2
23.8
44.6
47.6
6.9
6.5
0.7
0.7
11.0
10.6
1.5
1.5
GIPCL
Accumulate
71
78
1,068
1,523
1,568
30.3
30.3
5.4
11.5
13.1
6.1
0.7
0.7
5.6
11.3
1.2
1.0
Neutral
40,203 145,725 154,108
Power
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
155
128,011
74,111
85,789
22.7
23.1
12.1
13.7
12.8
11.3
1.6
1.4
12.6
13.2
2.3
2.1
Power
NTPC
Neutral
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Sell
98
78
2,898
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
11.7
7.7
0.7
0.7
6.3
8.9
5.5
4.1
DLF
Neutral
224
37,973
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
23.3
16.7
1.5
1.4
6.4
8.7
6.2
5.1
HDIL
Neutral
118
4,955
2,441
3,344
55.1
48.2
22.7
26.6
5.2
4.4
0.4
0.4
8.8
9.4
3.8
2.9
MLIFE
Neutral
414
1,692
813
901
26.2
26.6
32.0
37.1
13.0
11.2
1.3
1.2
10.4
11.0
2.4
2.1
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
313
118,920
81,984
90,718
32.1
33.8
10.9
16.9
28.7
18.6
2.2
2.0
7.6
10.6
2.1
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
95
31,507
22,234
24,161
26.9
27.7
3.3
4.9
28.8
19.3
2.2
2.0
7.7
10.3
1.9
1.7
Rcom
Neutral
76
15,635
21,090
22,308
31.8
29.9
3.0
3.8
24.9
19.9
0.4
0.4
1.7
2.1
2.4
2.2
Telecom
zOthers
Abbott India
Accumulate
1,476
1,590
3,136
1,629
1,886
11.8
13.3
60.8
79.5
24.3
18.6
5.0
4.2
22.0
24.4
1.7
1.4
Bajaj Electricals
Neutral
211
2,103
3,497
3,968
6.6
7.6
9.8
15.5
21.5
13.6
2.8
2.4
12.7
17.4
0.6
0.5
Cera Sanitaryware
Neutral
415
526
427
528
15.7
14.6
30.0
34.0
13.9
12.2
3.0
2.5
24.6
22.5
1.3
1.1
Cravatex
Buy
448
545
116
272
308
7.2
7.3
37.5
45.4
12.0
9.9
2.8
2.2
23.7
22.7
0.5
0.5
CRISIL
Neutral
1,040
7,301
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
30.3
26.0
13.7
11.0
50.9
46.9
7.0
5.9
Finolex Cables
Neutral
59
909
2,304
2,552
9.9
9.1
8.2
10.1
7.3
5.9
1.0
0.9
13.7
14.7
0.3
0.3
Force Motors
Accumulate
492
537
641
2,318
2,700
5.0
5.7
45.0
67.0
10.9
7.3
0.5
0.5
5.0
7.0
0.2
0.2
Goodyear India
Accumulate
340
360
784
1,494
1,607
6.4
7.8
23.9
33.0
14.2
10.3
2.2
1.9
16.5
20.1
0.3
0.2
Greenply Industries
Neutral
344
831
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
11.6
7.8
1.9
1.5
16.8
21.0
0.7
0.6
Hitachi
Accumulate
141
146
324
873
989
4.4
6.5
6.4
12.2
22.2
11.6
1.8
1.6
8.3
14.4
0.4
0.3
2,604
2,842
2,303
1,745
1,993
4.0
5.3
59.5
90.4
43.8
28.8
3.3
2.9
8.1
11.3
1.1
1.0
Honeywell Automation* Buy

Styrolution ABS India*
Neutral
750
1,319
1,059
1,116
8.5
9.5
36.0
42.0
20.8
17.9
3.0
2.6
15.4
16.0
1.2
1.2
ITD Cementation
Neutral
235
271
1,323
1,455
12.4
12.4
23.2
27.7
10.1
8.5
0.7
0.6
6.8
7.6
0.7
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
170
2,738
1,228
1,443
9.0
10.9
3.9
6.4
43.7
26.6
4.3
4.0
10.1
15.6
2.7
2.3
MCX
Neutral
1,489
7,592
553
624
65.3
66.3
62.5
72.0
23.8
20.7
6.6
5.7
27.5
27.4
10.9
9.2
MRF
Accumulate
12,366
12,884
5,245
11,804
12,727
10.4
10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3
9.6
8.6
1.9
1.5
21.3
19.4
0.6
0.5
Page Industries
Accumulate
3,410
3,602
3,803
836
1,023
20.2
20.6
105.6
133.4
32.3
25.6
16.4
11.6
59.3
53.2
4.6
3.8
Relaxo Footwears
Buy
784
933
941
1,019
1,208
11.0
12.5
47.0
66.7
16.7
11.8
4.1
3.1
28.2
30.1
1.1
0.9
Sintex Industries
Buy
66
79
1,974
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
4.8
4.2
0.6
0.6
12.9
13.2
0.8
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
304
366
285
1,043
1,149
12.3
12.9
65.7
73.3
4.6
4.2
0.9
0.8
21.0
19.6
0.5
0.5
S. Kumars Nationwide
Neutral
13
400
7,134
7,985
19.7
19.4
12.2
14.1
1.1
1.0
0.1
0.1
11.3
11.5
0.6
0.6
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
OPM(%)
FY13E
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
zOthers
SpiceJet
Reduce
47
43
2,262
5,720
6,599
5.3
6.8
3.6
5.4
12.9
8.7
18.7
6.0
0.5
0.4
TAJ GVK
Buy
72
108
449
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
9.1
7.9
1.2
1.1
13.9
14.4
1.8
1.6
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
315
384
485
750
803
18.6
18.4
65.4
69.1
4.8
4.6
0.7
0.7
16.5
15.3
0.2
0.1
TVS Srichakra
Buy
268
335
205
1,476
1,643
7.0
8.2
32.6
55.9
8.2
4.8
1.3
1.1
16.8
24.8
0.4
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
1,921
25,130
10,289
11,421
12.8
12.8
26.0
45.3
73.9
42.4
3.4
3.1
5.8
7.6
2.8
2.5
Vesuvius India
Neutral
331
672
560
611
16.1
17.0
24.7
28.8
13.4
11.5
2.0
1.8
15.8
16.2
1.1
1.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on December 18, 2012
Market Outlook
December 19, 2012

Market Outlook 19th Dec 2012

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Market Outlook 19th Dec 2012

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Market Outlook

December 19, 2012

Monetary policy treads cautiously on inflation concerns

FII Derivatives (December 18, 2012)

Net Inflows (December 17, 2012)

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Monetary policy treads cautiously on inflation concerns

Lok Sabha passes Banking Bill, paving way for new

Dashboard - Old Private banks

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: NR Not Rated

Lok Sabha passes Companies bill

prevent corporate frauds by strengthening the Serious Fraud Investigation

protect small investors by regulating entities such as chit funds

hold directors more accountable

It also mandates that companies above a certain size spend at least 2% of

It also mandates at least one woman director in certain companies to promote

GSM operators lost 9 mn customers in November: COAI

MM to buy out Navistars stake in the Indian JV

NALCO resumes operations at bauxite mine

Economic and Political News

India's US government debt holding dips to $58.9 billion

Aurobindo gets final nod from US FDA for anti-HIV drug

Country Event Description

December 19, 2012

Initial Jobless claims

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

Existing home sales

December 21, 2012

December 27, 2012

New home sales

Germany PMI Manufacturing

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

Germany PMI Services

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Industrial Production (YoY)

BOE Announces rates

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

Industrial Production (YoY)

January 13, 2013

Real GDP (YoY)

January 14, 2013

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

Industrial Production YoY

January 15, 2013

Producer Price Index (mom)

January 16, 2013

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Consumer price index (mom)

January 23, 2013

Jobless claims change

January 31, 2013

FOMC rate decision

February 14, 2013

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

January 11, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

5.3 5.5 5.3

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends