NUMERICAL APPROXIMATION FOR POPULATION GROWTH MODEL

Ahmad El-Ajou 1 , Zaid Odibat 2 , Ahmad Alawneh 1

2

Department of Mathematics, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan Prince Abdullah Bin Ghazi Faculty of Science and IT, Al-Balqa' Applied University, Jordan
ABSTRACT (1) subject to the initial condition (2) In population models the solution of (1) corresponds to the population density at time . The linear term in (1) corresponds to intrinsic growth, loss, or transition processes in the population independent of population density. The nonlinear logistic term in (1) corresponds to loss processes due to crowding at a rate proportional to a functional of the population density. Lastly, the constant term in (1) corresponds to an external source of population growth, independent of the population density. The homotopy analysis method, which proposed by Liao [6-10], is effectively and easily used to solve some classes of nonlinear problems without linearization, perturbation or discretization. For linear problems, its exact solution can be obtained by few terms of the homotopy analysis series. In the last years, extensive work has been done using HAM, which provides analytical approximation for nonlinear equations. This method has been implemented in several differential and integral equations, such as nonlinear water waves [9], unsteady boundary-layer flows [10], Klein-Gordon equation [11], solitary waves with discontinuity [12], projectile motion with the quadratic resistance law [13], the generalized Hirota-Satsuma coupled KdV equation [14], heat radiation equations [15], MHD flows of an Oldroyd 8-constant fluid [15], and others. The objective of the present paper is to extend the applications of the homotopy analysis method to provide symbolic approximate solutions for the logistic population growth models. As we will see later, choosing suitable values of the auxiliary parameter and the auxiliary function will help to adjust and control the convergence region of the series solution. Furthermore, the behavior of the model in that it increases rapidly in the logistic curve and it decreases exponentially to extinction in the long run can be formally determined by using the Pad approximants of the series obtained.

This paper presents an efficient numerical algorithm for approximate solutions of population growth models. The algorithm is based on the homotopy analysis method (HAM). Particular attention is paid throughout this paper to outline the features of the method. The HAM provides us with a simple way to adjust and control the convergence region of the series solution by introducing the auxiliary parameters. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of solutions for three types of population growth models. The Pad approximants are effectively used in the analysis to capture the essential behavior of the population of the identical individuals. Index Terms Homotopy analysis method, Population growth model, Logistic growth model, Closed system, Pad approximant.

1. INTRODUCTION Population dynamics has traditionally been the dominant branch of mathematical biology, whose history spans more than 200 years. Aiming both to determine the principles of population changes over time and to answer the questions of how biological and environmental processes influence these changes. Population dynamics plays a critical role for environmental management and sustainable use of natural resources. Recent advances in computer technology and statistical methods have made it possible to estimate the parameters of existing population models and determine the vital rates of population change. Despite these advances, making accurate predictions of population models still remains a scientific challenge. It's important to not only refine, modify and extend the mathematical models that already exist but also to develop new approaches that could accurately describe various scenarios of complex population behavior observed in nature. Our paper is devoted to the presentation and explanation of such a new approach. Most mathematical models that describe the dynamics of a population over time are based on first order differential equation of the form:

2. HOMOTOPY ANALYSIS METHOD The principles of the HAM and its applicability for various kinds of differential equations are given in [6-16]. For convenience of the reader, we will present a review of the HAM [10, 11, 15] then we will extend the HAM to construct a symbolic approximate solution for the logistic population growth model. To achieve our goal, we consider the nonlinear differential equation (3) where is a nonlinear operator and function of independent variable . is unknown

Define the vector (11) Differentiating Eq. (5) m-times with respect to embedding parameter , then setting and dividing them by m! and using (8), we have the so-called mth-order deformation equation (12) where (13)

2.1. Zero order deformation equation Let denote an initial guess of the exact solution of Eq. (3), an auxiliary parameter, an auxiliary function, and an auxiliary linear operator with the property when (4)

and (14) For any given nonlinear operator , the term can be easily expressed by Eq. (13). Thus, we can gain by means of solving the linear highorder deformation Eq. (12) one after the other in order. The mth-order approximation of is given by (15)

The auxiliary parameter , the auxiliary function and the auxiliary linear operator play important roles within the HAM to adjust and control the convergence region of solution series. Liao [6-8] constructs, using as an embedding parameter, the so-called zero-order deformation equation (5)

3. POPULATION GROWTH MODEL where is the solution of Eq. (3) which depends on , , , and . When , the zero order deformation equation Eq. (5) becomes (6) and when , since and order deformation Eq. (5) reduces to the zero(7) So, is exactly the solution of the nonlinear Eq. (3). Define the so-called mth order deformation derivatives (8) Expanding in Taylor series with respect to the embedding parameter , using (6) and (8), we obtain (9) If the power series (9) converges at following series solution , then we get the subject to the initial conditions (18) Obviously, when (4), we have , since satisfies the property (19) and when , since and , the zero-order deformation equation (17) is equivalent to (1), hence (10) 2.2. High-order deformation equation (20) and, the so-called mth-order deformation equation can be constructed as In this section we use the HAM to find approximate solution of the model Eq. (1) together with the initial condition (2), which represent the population growth model. According to Eq. (3), Eq. (1) can be written as (16) Consider the auxiliary linear operator is . So, the so-called zero-order deformation equation can be defined as (17)

(21) subject to the initial conditions (22) where

Let us now construct the HAM solution for Eq. (25). Since , according to (23), we have

(29)

(23)

If we take the auxiliary function, choose the initial guess approximation

, and if we (30)

If we solve the linear ordinary differential (21), then the mth-order deformation equation will have the form

then we have

(24)

(31)

4. APPLICATIONS In this section, three types of the population growth models are investigated. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of solutions for these types. All numerical results are calculated by the symbolic calculus software Mathematica. 4.1. Ordinary logistic growth model Consider the Verhulst- Pearl [1] logistic population growth model (25)

and so on. By means of the so-called -curves, Fig. 1, shows that, the valid region of is the horizontal line segment [23]. Thus, the valid region of for the HAM of Eq. (25) is as shown in Fig.1.
u ' ,u "
2

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

subject to the initial condition (26)

2

The dependent variable denotes the population size at time . In simple words, the model (25) describes a population growth rate with a linear term , where the parameter may be considered to be the per capita birth rate per aphid, also called the intrinsic rate of natural increase. The growth of the population in (25) is constrained by the nonlinear term, . This may be interpreted as having per capita death rate , where the parameter describes the strength of the densitydependent mortality. The model (25) is well-known and widely applied in ecology which has the following proprieties: (1) Setting , the single positive root is

Fig. 1: The -curves of which are corresponding to the HAM solution of Eq. (25) when . Dotted curve: 20th-order approximation of ; solid curve: 20th-order approximation of .
u
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4

(27) This equilibrium solution is called the carrying capacity of the environment. (2) Eq. (25) is Bernoulli equation which has the following exact solution (28)
0.2

Fig. 2: Comparison of the exact solution of Eq. (25) with the HAM at . Dashed line: , dash.dotted line: , dotted line: , solid line: exact solution.

(35) Fig.2 shows the approximate solutions for Eq. (25) obtained for different values of using HAM. It is clear that the best solution results when we use the auxiliary parameter . Figs. 3, shows the Pad approximants of . The results in this figure show the validity of the Pad approximants to increase the convergence region.
u
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
0.6 0.8

then we have

(36)

and so on. As pointed above, the valid region of is a horizontal line segment. Thus, the valid region of for model (4.2) is as shown in Fig. 4.
u ' ,u "
1.0

10

20

30

40

t
0.4

Fig. 3: Comparison of the exact solution of Eq. (25) at with the Pad approximant of the HAM. Dash.dotted line: [5, 5] Pad approximant, dotted line: [7, 7] Pad approximant, solid line: exact solution.

0.2

4.2. Growth model based on cumulative size dynamics Consider the Prajneshu [2] logistic population growth model (32) subject to the initial condition (33) where . Model (32) is depending on the principle:" Aphid population growth is constrained by the cumulative size of the past population" [4]. In this equation, the rate of change of the aphid population may be considered to be the net difference of a birth and a death rate. Note that, as in Eq. (25), the population birth rate is assumed to have form , where the intrinsic birth rate is denoted as . However, population size control is assumed now to come through a unique density-dependent death function. The per capita death rate is assumed to be proportional to the cumulative density, , as opposed to the current size, , in Eq. (25). The new death rate parameter is denoted . According to (23), we have

h
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Fig. 4: The -curves of which are corresponding to the HAM solution of Eq. (32) when . Dotted curve: 10th-order approximation of ; solid curve: 10th-order approximation of .

Fig. 5, shows the HAM solution, of Eq. (32) and the non-linear regression model which suggested by Prajneshu (1998) and may be written as: (37) where the regression model parameters and are functions of the mechanistic parameters , and , the initial value [4]. The solutions for the mechanistic parameters in terms of and in (37) are

(38)

(34)

If we take the auxiliary function, choose the initial guess approximation

, and if we

The results in this figure show the agreement of the HAM solution with the non-linear regression model (37) in wide range. Fig. 6 shows the HAM solution, of Eq. (32) and the Pad approximants of . The results in this figure show the validity of the Pade approximants to increase the convergence region. The accuracy may be increase if we increase the terms of the homotopy analysis series, and so increase the order of the Pad approximant.

u
140 120 100 80 60 40 20

proportional to this integral, and so the population death rate due to toxicity must include a factor . Since the system is closed, the presence of the toxic term always causes the population level to fall to zero in the long run, as will be seen later. The relative size of the sensitivity to toxins, , determines the manner in which the population evolves before its extinction. Now, along of the HAM, and according to Eq. (23), we have

10

(40)

Fig. 5: Comparison of the HAM solution of Eq. (32) when with the non-linear regression model (37). Dotted line: the HAM solution, solid line: the non-linear regression mode.
u
3.0

If we take the auxiliary function, , and the initial guess approximation , then we have

2.5

2.0

(41)
1.5

1.0

0.5

10

Fig. 6: Comparison of the HAM solution of Eq. (32) when with the Pad approximant of the HAM. Dash.dotted line: HAM solution, dotted line: [4, 4] Pad approximant, solid line: [6, 6] Pad approximant.

4.3. Population growth model of a species within a closed system Consider the nonlinear Volterra integro-differential equation [5] (39)

and so on. The valid region of for model (4.3) is as shown in Fig. 7. Fig.8 shows the t approximate solutions for Eq. (39) obtained for different values of using HAM. It is clear that the best solution results when goes to left end point of its region, i.e. when . Fig. 9 shows the Pad approximants of the HAM solution , of Eq. (39) for deferent values of and when the results is the same as that obtained by Al-Khaled [6] using the Adomain decomposition method, but when the Pade approximants gives solution more agreement with the properties of the Volterra population growth model.
u ' ,u "
15

which represents the population growth model of a species within a closed system. The dependent variable is the population of identical individuals at time which exhibits crowding and sensitivity to the amount of toxins produced [5], is the birth rate coefficient, is the crowding coefficient, and is the toxicity coefficient. The coefficient indicates the essential behavior of the population evolution before its level falls to zero in the long run. If we have the VerhulstPearl logistic equation (25) and if we have the Prajneshu logistic population growth model (32). As mentioned above, the last term contains the integral that indicates the total metabolism or total amount of toxins produced since time zero. The individual death rate is

10

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

Fig. 7: The -curves of which are corresponding to the HAM solution of Eq. (39) when . Dotted curve: 10th-order approximation of ; solid curve: 10th-order approximation of .

u
1.0

[2] Prajneshu, A nonlinear statistical model for aphid population growth, J. Indian Soc. Agric. Stat. , vol. 51, no. 3, pp. 73-80, 1998. [3] J. Dyson, R. Villella-Bressan, and G.F. Webb, Asymptotic behaviour of solutions to abstract logistic equations, Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 206, pp. 216232, 2007. [4] J. H. Matis, T.R. Kiffe, T.I. Matis, and D.E. Stevenson, Stochastic modeling of aphid population growth with nonlinear, power-law dynamics, Mathematical Biosciences, vol. 208, pp. 469494, 2007. [5] K. Al-Khaled, Numerical approximations for population

0.8

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t growth models, Appl. Math. Compu., vol. 160, pp. 865873,

2005. [6] S.J. Liao, Beyond Perturbation: Introduction to the Homotopy Analysis Methods, Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, Boca Raton, 2003. [7] S.J. Liao, On the homotopy analysis method for nonlinear problems, Appl. Math. Comput. , vol.147, pp. 499513, 2004. [8] S.J. Liao, Homotopy analysis method: A new analytic method for nonlinear problems, Appl. Math. Mech., vol. 19, pp. 957-962, 1998. [9] S.J. Liao, K.Cheung, Homotopy analysis method of nonlinear progressive waves in deep water, J Eng Math., vol. 45, no. 2, pp. 105-116, 2003.

Fig. 8: Comparison between the HAM solutions of Eq. (39) at . Dash.dotted line: , dotted line: , solid line: .
u
1.5

1.0

0.5

10

12

14

Fig. 9: Comparison between the Pad approximants of HAM solution of Eq. (39) at deferent values of . Dotted line: , solid line:

, the for

[10] S. J. Liao. Series solutions of unsteady boundary-layer flows over a stretching flat plate, Studies in Appl. Math., vol. 117, no. 3, pp. 239-263, 2006. [11] Q. Sun, Solving the Klein-Gordon equation by means of the homotopy analysis method, Appl. Math. Comput., vol. 169, no. 3, pp. 355-365, 2005. [12] W. Wu, S.J. Liao, Solving solitary waves with discontinuity by means of the homotopy analysis method, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, vol. 26, pp. 177-185, 2005. [13] K. Yabushita et al, An analytic solution of projection motion with the quadratic resistance law, Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and theoretical, vol. 40, pp. 8403-8416, 2007. [14] S. Abbasbandy, The application of homotopy analysis method to solve a generalized Hirota-Satsuma coupled KdV equation, Phys. Lett. A, vol. 361, pp. 478-483, 2007. [15] S. Abbasbandy, Homotopy analysis method for heat radiation equations, I. Comm. Heat and Mass Transfer, vol. 34, no.3, pp. 380-387, 2007. [16] T. Hayat M. Khan, S. Asghar, Homotopy analysis of MHD flows of an oldroyd 8-constant fluid Acta Mech., vol. 168, no.20, pp. 213-232, 2004.

5. CONCLUSIONS In this paper, the homotopy analysis method has been successfully applied to finding the approximate solution of population growth models. The proposed algorithm produced a rapidly convergent series by choosing suitable values of the auxiliary parameter . Analysis of the behavior of the model showed that it increases rapidly along the logistic curve followed by a slow exponential decay after reaching a maximum point can be formally determined by using the Pade approximants. The comparison of the result obtained by the HAM with that obtained by other methods confirms our belief that the efficiency of our technique gives it much wider applicability for general classes of nonlinear differential equations, integral equations and integro-differential equations. Moreover higher accuracy can be achieved using HAM by evaluating more components of the solution. 6. REFERENCES
[1] E. Renshaw, Modeling Biological Populations in Space and Time, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1991.