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Week 12

Other intelligent systems

The disciplines of AI (the roots) and the applications Source: Turban (2001)

This week
Last week expertise and expert systems

Overview of concepts and technologies being used in the development of intelligent systems
(Artificial) Neural Networks Genetic algorithms

Fuzzy logic
Intelligent agents Game theory

Brief introduction to the concepts, and how these ideas are being applied in MSS contexts

Artificial Neural Networks

Neural networks - introduction

Artificial neural networks (ANN)

system of programs and data structures
imitates the operation of the human brain (as so many new technologies are said to do...)

theoretically involves many parallel processors

in practice, neural networks are often simulated

Neural networks - introduction

Neural network is initially trained i.e. fed large amounts of training data (inputs produce a known set of outputs) Neural network uses rules learned from patterns in the data to construct a hidden layer of logic

Hidden layer(s) processes inputs, classifying according to the experience of the model
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Neural networks - structure

Input layer Income Debt Age Residence

Hidden layer

Output layer Good credit risk Bad credit risk

Source: Laudon & Laudon, 2004

Machine learning

Supervised mode
o uses inputs for which desired outputs are known e.g. a historical set of loan applications o difference between desired and actual output used to correct weights on neural network

Unsupervised mode
o o o

only the inputs are known!

the network is self-organising outputs derived by the network may not be meaningful to the user... For artificial neural networks identifying tanksor not! See: http://neil.fraser.name/writing/tank/
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Neural networks template matching (1)

Classification problem

Man on the left

does match

based on Aleksander & Morton (1991)

Neural networks template matching (2)

Classification problem

Man on the left

does not match

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based on Aleksander & Morton (1991)

Neural networks template matching (3)

Classification problem

Does the man on the left match the template?

What are we trying to match?

Smile Eyes Hair Tie
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based on Aleksander & Morton (1991)

Neural networks - benefits

Good at some tasks that people are good at Suitable for solving unstructured & semi-structured problems Pattern recognition, even from incomplete information Classification, abstraction and generalisation In theory, processing can be in parallel for faster computations Ability to adapt to new data: learning Exhibit fault-tolerant behaviour

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Neural networks - limitations

Not good at tasks that people are not good at Not suitable for basic data processing or conventional arithmetic calculations (conventional computer system better)

Need a vast amount of data Might not learn what is expected Limited to classification and pattern recognition Lack of explanatory capabilities Not economically viable for parallel processing
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Neural networks - applications

Applications of neural networks include:
oil exploration data analysis weather prediction interpretation of nucleotide sequences in biology labs identifying credit card fraud by spotting changes in patterns of customer spending behaviour, e.g. Visa credit card approval bankruptcy prediction Optical Character Recognition (OCR) speech recognition stock market predictions
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Genetic Algorithms

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Genetic algorithms - introduction

Genetic algorithms
also called adaptive computation evolutionary programming
problem-solving techniques conceptually based adaptation to environment
process of evolution

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Genetic algorithms - introduction

programmed to work the way populations solve problems: changing and re-organising their component parts using reproduction crossover mutation solutions alter and combine

worst ones are discarded better ones go on to produce even better solutions

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Genetic algorithms - a simple example (1)

Example based on the board game Mastermind Imagine we are trying to guess a 6-digit binary number The number that has been set by our opponent is: 001010 but we dont know this

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Genetic algorithms - a simple example (2)

We make guesses and get scores for what is right e.g. 111101 scores 1 because one digit is correct, but we dont know which one Then we guess again and get another score how many guesses before we get it right? There are 64 possible combinations With random guessing: average 32 attempts to guess the right number but it could take the full 64 guesses How it could be done using genetic algorithms?

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Genetic algorithms - a simple example (3)

The secret number we are trying to guess is 001010

With GA approach, we present random guesses, say

A 110100 (scores 1) B 111101 (scores 1) C 111111 (scores 2) D 000000 (scores 4) E 011011 (scores 4) F 101010 (scores 5) G 010101 (scores 1)

Discard the lowest scoring guesses, A, B, C and G Now we have D, E and F to use

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Genetic algorithms - a simple example (4)

Try splits...

first 2 digits from one parent , last four digits from the other D and E

H 010000 (scores 3) I 001011 (scores 5)

E and F

J - 011010 (scores 4) K- 101011 (scores 4)

D and F

L 100000 (scores 4) M 001010 (scores 6)

success!

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Genetic algorithms - terminology

Set of instructions performed to solve a problem

algorithm

Each iteration
generation

Score calculated
fitness function
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Genetic algorithms - applications

Methods used to reproduce (generate new offspring) are genetic operators and include:

splitting and mating is called crossover

some genes from "mother", some genes from "father" unique individual created with some inheritance from parents (sometimes twins might occur same pattern of 0s and 1s)

more rarely might also introduce mutation (randomly changing one of the digits)
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Genetic algorithms - applications

Genetic algorithms have been applied to
Large-scale combinatorial mathematical programming problems Dynamic process control Scheduling problems and production planning Transportation and routing problems Optimisation of complex machine design e.g. General Electric used GA to optimise jet turbine aircraft engine design (each design change required changes in up to 100 variables) Producing police sketches of criminals

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Fuzzy Logic

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Fuzzy logic - introduction

Fuzzy logic
based on "degrees of truth rather than "true or false" (1 or 0) Boolean logic

Can everything be described in binary terms?

A philosophical question...
Yes? No? Sometimes? Maybe? It depends... (true) (false) (

fuzzy)
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Are we nearly there yet...?

the answer could be just yes or no... ...or it depends whether we have just left, are half-way there, or expect to arrive in 5 minutes...

Fuzzy logic - introduction

In practice, data in use might be uncertain

some state between true and false

allows 1 (true) and 0 (false) as extreme cases of truth encompasses various states of truth in between e.g. cold, cool, warm, hot might have overlapping temperature ranges room temperature is cool is between 50F and 70F, so we can definitely say 60F - 67F is cool but 70F is on the cusp between warm and cool (like the Grand Old Duke of York)
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Fuzzy logic

Upper limit

1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0

Cold

Cool

Norm

Warm

Hot

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

temperature

c e e r t a a i n t y

If temperature cool or cold and humidity low while outdoor wind high and outdoor temperature low, raise heat and humidity in the room.
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- example taken from Laudon & Laudon (2004)

Fuzzy logic - example

1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 Cold Cool Norm

Upper limit

Warm

Hot

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

temperature 70o F degrees is the norm: a comfortable temperature

c e e r t a a i n t y

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Fuzzy logic - example

1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 Cold Cool Norm

Upper limit

Warm

Hot

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

temperature 40o F degrees is too cold: an uncomfortable temperature

c e e r t a a i n t y

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Fuzzy logic - example

1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 Cold Cool Norm

Upper limit

Warm

Hot

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

temperature 100o F degrees is too hot: an uncomfortable temperature

c e r t a i n t y

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Fuzzy logic - example

1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 Cold Cool Norm

Upper limit

Warm

Hot

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

temperature 60o F degrees is cool: but not an uncomfortable temperature

c e e r t a a i n t y

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Fuzzy logic - example

1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 Cold Cool Norm

Upper limit

Warm

Hot

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

temperature 80o F degrees is warm: but not an uncomfortable temperature

c e e r t a a i n t y

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Fuzzy logic - example

1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 Cold Cool Norm

Upper limit

Warm

Hot

?
40 50 60 70 80 90 100

temperature Is 90o F degrees warm or hot?

c e r t a i n t y

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Fuzzy logic - example

1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 Cold Cool Norm

Upper limit

Warm

Hot

?
40 50 60 70 80 90 100

temperature Is 55o F degrees cool or cold?

c e e r t a a i n t y

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Fuzzy logic - example

1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 Cold Cool Norm

Upper limit

Warm

Hot

? ?
40 50 60 70 80 90 100

temperature Is 75o F degrees warm or the norm? Is 65o F degrees cool or the norm?

c e e r t a a i n t y

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Fuzzy logic - applications

Fuzzy logic applied in Japan:

Sendais subway system used fuzzy logic controls to accelerate smoothly Mitsubishi Heavy Industries implemented fuzzy logic controls in air conditioners (reducing power consumption by 20%) Auto-focus device in cameras relies on fuzzy logic

and in the US
A Wall Street firm uses a system based on fuzzy logic to select companies for potential acquisition

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Intelligent Agents

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Intelligent agents - introduction

Intelligent agents are programs that...

work in the background without direct human intervention... perform specific, repetitive, and predictable tasks... for an individual user, business process, or software application... with some degree of independence

Agents use in-built/learned knowledge to accomplish tasks/make decisions for the user

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Intelligent agents - levels

Level 0 - e.g. web browsers

agents retrieve documents for user under direct orders e.g. user specifies URL

Level 1 - search engines

agents provide a user-initiated search facility

Level 2 - software agents

o o o

maintain users profiles

monitor Internet information notify users when relevant information is found

Level 3 - learning or truly intelligent agents

o

have a learning and deductive component of user profiles to help a user who cannot formalise a query or target for a search

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Intelligent agents - applications (1)

Intelligent agents
can be programmed to make decisions based on user's personal preferences e.g.
delete junk e-mail schedule appointments travel over interconnected networks to find the cheapest airfare

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Intelligent agents - applications (2)

An agent is like a personal digital assistant collaborating with the user in the same work environment can help the user by
o

o
o o o

performing tasks on the user's behalf training or teaching the user hiding the complexity of difficult tasks helping the user collaborate with other users monitoring events and procedures

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Game Theory

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Game theory - introduction

Also called Multi-person Decision Theory Analyses the decision-making process when there is more than one decision-maker (player)

Each players outcome (or payoff) depends on the actions taken by the other players

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Game theory - introduction

Each players action depends on

o o o

the actions available to each player each player's preferences about the outcomes each player's beliefs about which actions are available to each player and how each player ranks the outcomes each players beliefs about other player's beliefs, etc.

Cutting the (delicious chocolate) cake - cutter and chooser

o o o

if the cutter makes one slice bigger than the other the chooser will take the biggest slice! ...better to make slices as near equal as possible
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Game Theory (1)

Prisoners Dilemma
Art and Don are arrested for a crime
if Art confesses and incriminates Don
Art goes free , Don gets 5 years

if Art does not confess, but Don incriminates Art

Don goes free , Art gets 5 years
they both get 4 years they both get 2 years

if both Art and Don confess and incriminate each other

if both Art and Don do not confess

they are told the same thing but they cannot communicate could they trust each other if they could communicate...? 46 what does each decide to do?

Game Theory (2)

Prisoners Dilemma
Mutual co-operation gives the best outcome for Art and Don (together as a group)
minimum total time spent in jail

Any other outcome less good for the group

might be better for one, but worse for the other might be worse for both total jail time overall would be greater

Selfish action (betrayal) gives the worst outcome for Art and Don (individually and together)

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Game Theory (3)

Prisoners Dilemma
if Art says nothing
hell get 2 years if Don says nothing hell get 5 years if Don confesses

if Art talks, he might go free

but if Don talks as well, theyll both get 4 years

Don

Ssh
Ssh Art

Talk

-2, -2 0, -5

-5, 0 -4, -4

if Don says nothing

hell get 2 years if Art says nothing hell get 5 years if Art confesses

Talk

if Don talks, he might go free

but if Art talks as well, theyll both get 4 years

Is it better to co-operate or defect (betray)?

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Game Theory (4)

Prisoners Dilemma
Don Don

Ssh
Ssh! win-win Art

Talk
lose-win lose-lose

Ssh!
Ssh! Art

Talk

-4 -5

-5 -8

Talk

win-lose

Talk

Payoff matrix in win-lose format

Payoff matrix in penalty format

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Game Theory (5)

Prisoners Dilemma Variation: exchange of closed bags

o
o

bag 1 should contain goods bag 2 should contain payment

Full

Goods

Empty

Full win-win

lose-win lose-lose

Cash

If both bags are full: win-win

o

Empty

win-lose

What happens if one bag is empty? What happen if both bags are empty?
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Game Theory (6)

Prisoners Dilemma Variation: exchange of closed bags, but played every month
o

bag 1 should contain goods bag 2 should contain payment

Full

Goods

Empty

If both bags are full: win-win

o o

Full win-win

lose-win lose-lose

Introduces memory
o o

What happens if one bag is empty? Cash What happen if both bags are empty? win-lose Empty What happened last time? What will be your strategy this time?

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Game Theory - examples

Prisoners Dilemma (PD) and Iterated Prisoners Dilemma (IPD) can be applied: 2 salesmen selling to 2 client companies 2 military generals attacking/defending 2 locations 2 companies deciding whether to advertise competing products

2 political candidates seeking support from colleagues

(David Cameron and Nick Clegg as leaders of Con-Dem alliance)

All examples of two-player non-zero-sum games

Game theory can be applied to o airline competition o coalition formation to apply political pressure o plant location o product diversification o to derive optimal pricing, competitive bidding strategies and making investment decisions

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Game Theory: strategies

Strategies for playing IPD

Always co-operate
will be beaten but nasty strategies

Always defect
greedy strategies do not do well long-term

Tit-for-tat
start by co-operating, then copy opponent

Spiteful
co-operates until opponent defects, then always defects

Mistrust
start by defecting, then copy opponent
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Game Theory: strategies

Successful strategies
o

nice
o

does not defect before opponent does punish defection - it does not pay to be too nice will retaliate, but will then co-operate if opponent does avoids long-term revenge not trying to out-score opponent

retaliate
o

forgive
o o

non-envious
o

Could ideas from IPD show how altruism evolved?

o o

Sometimes it is selfish to appear to be nice! Nice guys finish first...

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Game theory - applications

Game theory is
uniquely qualified to make sense of the forces at work in relation to executive decision-making, i.e. to the strategies of some actual corporations caught up in conglomerate warfare

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McDonald (1970) from Davis (1997)

Further reading

Aleksander I & Morton H (1991), An Introduction to Neural Computing, Chapman & Hall Davis, M, 1997, Game Theory: a non-technical introduction, Dover Laudon, K. & Laudon, J., 2004, Management Information Systems, 8th ed., Pearson Prentice Hall Other intelligent techniques: chapter 10, pages 333-339 Turban E. & Aronson J.E., 2001, Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 6th ed., Prentice Hall Neural Computing (the basics): chapter 15, pages 605-621, 634-636 Neural Computing Applications: chapter 16, pages 651-661 Genetic algorithms: chapter 16, pages 664-671 Fuzzy Logic: chapter 16, pages 672-676 Look up game theory and/or the prisoners dilemma on the web

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