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COMP2101 / CS20S Discrete Mathematics Probability Distributions

1.

An automotive safety engineer claims that 1 in 10 automobile accidents is due to driver fatigue. What is the probability that at least 3 of 5 automobile accidents are due to driver fatigue? Solution Binomial

b(x; n, ) = C n x (1 - ) n - x for x = 0,1,2.., n x


b(3;5,0.1) = b(3;5,0.1) + b(4;5,0.1) + b(5;5,0.1) = 5C3 x 0.13 x 0.95-3 + 5C4 x 0.14 x 0.95-4 + 5C5 x 0.15 x 0.95-5 = 0.00856

2.

In a certain city, incompatibility is given as the legal reason in 70 percent of all divorce cases. Find the probability that five of the next six divorce cases filed in this city will claim incompatibility as the reason. Solution Binomial

b(x; n, ) = C n x (1 - ) n - x for x = 0,1,2.., n x


b(5;6,0.7) = 6C5 x 0.75 x 0.36-5 = 0.3025 3. Suppose that the probability is 0.63 that a car stolen in a certain Western city will be recovered. Find the probability that at least 8 out of 10 cars stolen in this city will be recovered. Solution Binomial

b(x; n, ) = C n x (1 - ) n - x for x = 0,1,2.., n x


b(8;10,0.63) = b(8;10,0.63) + b(9;10,0.63) + b(10;10,0.63) = 10C8 x 0.638 x 0.3710-8+10C9 x 0.639 x 0.371+10C10 x 0.6310 x 0.370 = 0.2205

4.

If the probability is 0.75 that a person will believe a rumour about the transgression of a certain politician, find the probabilities that a) the eighth person to hear the rumour will be the fifth to believe it; b) the fifteenth person to hear the rumour will be the tenth to believe it. Solution Negative Binomial
x1 b * (x; k, ) = C k --1 k (1 - ) x -k for x = k, k + 1, k + 2

a)

b*(8;5,0.75) = 8-1C5-1 x 0.755 x 0.258-5 = 0.1298

b) 5.

b*(15;10,0.75) = 15-1C10-1 x 0.7510 x 0.2515-10 = 0.1101 An expert sharpshooter misses a target 5 percent of the time. Find the probability that she will miss the target for the second time on the fifteenth shot. Solution Negative Binomial
x b * (x; k, ) = C k --1 k (1 - ) x -k for x = k, k + 1, k + 2 1

b*(15;2,0.05) =

15-1C2-1

x 0.052 x 0.9515-2

= 0.0180 6. In a given city 4 percent of all licensed drivers will be involved in at least one car accident in any given year. Find the probability that among 150 licensed drivers randomly chosen in the city a) only five will be involved in at least one accident in any given year b) at most three will be involved in at least one accident in any given year Solution Poisson or Binomial (a) Poisson
p ( x; ) =

x e
x!

x = 0,1,2,...

As

= n = 150 x 0.04

= 6

p(5;6) = (65 x e-6) / 5! = 0.161

Binomial
b(x; n, ) = C n x (1 - ) n - x for x = 0,1,2.., n x

b(5;150,0.04) = = 0.163

150C5

x 0.045 x 0.96145

(b)

Only Poisson shown (either may be used but Poisson is more easily used)
p ( x; ) =

x e
x!

x = 0,1,2,...

p( 3;6) = p(0;6) + p(1;6) + p(2;6) + p(3;6) = (60 x e-6) / 0! + (61 x e-6) / 1! + (62 x e-6) / 2! + (63 x e-6) / 3! = 0.151