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Public Opinion Strategies recently conducted a district-wide survey of 400 likely special election
voters on behalf of the Tedisco for Congress campaign. The poll was conducted February 3-4,
2009 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. The purpose of this memo is
to review some of the key findings of that poll.
Key Findings
He currently beats Murphy in each major geographic region – Saratoga County (55%-
29%), North Country (52%-30%) and the Hudson Valley portion of seat (45%-30%).
The strength of Tedisco’s personal image among Republicans greatly reduces the
probability of massive partisan defection. Fully 65% of Republicans hold a favorable
impression of Tedisco, with just 7% viewing him unfavorably. Among Republicans in the
Albany market, Tedisco’s image is 75%-8%, with 40% holding a “very favorable”
impression.
While some have stated that Murphy will benefit from the fact that President Obama
carried this seat in the 2008 election with significant Republican support, the data indicates
Democrats cannot count on President Obama to help them with Republicans in this seat.
Among the Republicans who voted for Obama over John McCain (12% of the district);
Tedisco holds a 58%-11% image.
Bottom Line
Special elections are always difficult, and we can expect this race to tighten as the Democrats
leverage their financial advantage. While Scott Murphy is unknown to district voters, his personal
wealth and fundraising ability – he has already raised over $600,000 – provide him with the
financial resources to make this race competitive.
That being said, Jim Tedisco’s deep roots in the district and his proven track record of advocacy
for upstate New York establishes him as the clear front-runner in this campaign. Tedisco is very
popular with district voters across party lines. He owns a solid geographic base in the district’s
largest county (and key swing area). Moreover, Tedisco unites the partisan base – making it
difficult for the Democrats to win in this heavily Republican district.
There is no question that Tedisco’s head start in this short campaign will force Murphy and his
Democratic allies to launch an aggressive negative attack against the Republican nominee. With
the financial resources to respond to the Democrats’ attack machine, Tedisco will be well-
positioned to recapture the 20th District.