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Commodities Evening Update

Friday | December 28, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update


Friday | December 28, 2012

International Commodities
News and Analysis French Consumer Spending rose by 0.2 percent in November. US crude oil inventories expected to decline 1.9 mn bbl Reuters. European Retail RMPI declined to 44.5-mark in December. European equities are trading on bearish note today on the back of worries amongst the market participants over the fiscal cliff issue. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures are trading on a flat note. French Consumer Spending rose by 0.2 percent in November as against a previous decline of 0.1 percent in October. European Retail Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) declined by 1.3 points to 44.5-mark in December from earlier rise of 45.8-level in November. Spot gold prices declined 0.3 percent today on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. Additionally, strength in the DX also added downside pressure on the gold prices. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee added downside pressure on the yellow metal prices on MCX. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in the base metal prices, Spot silver prices declined 0.4 percent today. Also a stronger DX acted as a negative factor for the white metal prices. The base metals complex traded on a negative note on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Apart from that mixed LME inventories also added downside pressure on the prices. Copper, the leader of the base metals group increased 0.1 percent today. However, weak global market sentiments along with stronger DX capped sharp gains in the prices. Also, marginal rise in LME Copper inventories prevented further upside in the prices. Nymex crude oil prices declined 0.10 percent taking cues from strength in the DX along with worries over the fiscal cliff issue which is nearing the deadline. However, forecast for decline in US crude oil inventories cushioned sharp fall in the crude oil prices. The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 9:30pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to decline by 1.9 million barrels for the week ending on 21st December 2012. Gasoline stocks are expected to gain by 0.5 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are expected to drop by 0.9 million barrels for the same period. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 5870.10 19364.08 10406.36 1985.73 16449.75 High 5915.70 19427.46 10433.63 2002.67 16484.81

as at 4.30 pm 28 December12
Low 5870.10 19354.2 10374.85 1984.90 16311.89 Last 5908.35 19427.46 10395.18 1997.05 16311.89 % Chg from Prev day 0.65 0.54 0.70 0.49 -0.51
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 28 December12
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot
Source: Reuters

Open 79.73 1.3234

High 80.05 1.3256

Low 79.685 1.3164

Current 80.01 1.3173

% Chg from Prev day 0.37 -0.47

as at 4.30 pm 28 December12
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Feb13 MCX Gold Feb13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Mar13 MCX Silver Mar 13 Crude Oil Nymex Jan 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Jan 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Feb13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Dec12 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Dec12 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Dec12 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Dec12 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1663.34 1664.00 30772 30.14 28.23 58050 91.15 111.24 5030 7939.25 441.80 2096.00 113.40 2335 126.85 17365 947.80 2080 112.45

1665.99 1664.00 30788 30.32 30.2 58054 91.49 111.38 5031 7955.25 441.85 2096.00 113.45 2339 127.05 17365 947.90 2115 112.55

1657.99 1658.80 30697 29.99 30.035 57675 91.02 110.46 5001 7915.00 440.20 2077.75 112.55 2321 126.50 17170 941.30 2067 111.75

1658.85 1658.80 30703 30.05 30.045 57742 91.02 110.72 5008 7926.00 440.35 2078.50 112.60 2324 126.65 17180 942.00 2074.75 112.10

-0.27 -0.23 -0.38 -0.36 -0.46 -0.74 -0.10 -0.07 0.32 0.10 -0.10 -0.73 -0.84 -0.27 -0.51 -0.69 -0.51 -0.28 -0.36

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update


Friday | December 28, 2012

International Commodities
Outlook In todays session we expect precious metals and crude oil prices to trade with a bearish note ahead of talks amongst the US law makers. However, base metals prices are expected to trade with a firm note due to hopes of rise in the demand from China due to positive industrial earnings indicating that the economy is on the path of recovery. Strength in the DX is expected to exert downside pressure on the commodities.

Technical Outook for evening session 28 December12 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)


Commodity Gold Feb'13 Spot Gold Silver Mar13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Jan '13 Nymex Crude Oil Jan13 Natural Gas Dec12 Copper Feb 13 Zinc Dec12 Lead Dec12 Aluminum Dec12 Nickel Dec12 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 30549 1647 56723 29.28 4927 89.5 183.3 437.5 111.8 125.8 111 930 Support 1 30653 1655 57282 29.71 4974 90.35 185.8 439.2 112.3 126.5 111.6 935 CMP 30718 1660 57750 30.07 5009 90.97 186.4 440.4 112.65 126.65 112.1 942 Resistance1 30822 1668 58340 30.53 5046 91.65 189.3 442 113.55 127.3 112.8 948.7 Resistance 2 30900 1674 58847 30.92 5079 92.25 190.7 444 114 128.2 113.3 954.5

Important Events for Today


Indicator Household Spending y/y Tokyo Core CPI y/y Prelim Industrial Production m/m Retail Sales y/y Average Cash Earnings y/y French Consumer Spending m/m Italian 10-y Bond Auction Chicago PMI Pending Home Sales m/m Crude Oil Inventories Country Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Euro Euro US US US Time (IST) 5:00am 5:00am 5:20am 5:20am 7:00am 1:15pm Tentative 8:15pm 8:30pm 9:30pm Actual 0.2% -0.6% -1.7% 1.3% -1.1% 0.2% Forecast 0.8% -0.5% -0.5% 1.2% -0.4% 0.0% 51.2 -0.3% -1.9M Previous -0.1% -0.5% 1.6% -1.2% -0.4% -0.2% 4.45/1.2 50.4 5.2% -1.0M Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium