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Basic Concepts of Statistics & Probability

Define the following.

Review of Statistical Concepts

Probability Sample

Population Mean Mode

Sampling from Distributions

Median

Standard Deviation
Range Histogram

Variance
Box-plot Descriptive Statistics

Hypothesis Testing

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Sampling from Distributions

Types of Distributions
Review of Statistical Concepts

Continuous Distributions
Normal Distribution Chi-square (X2) Distribution

Sampling from Distributions

t-Distribution F-Distribution Exponential Distribution Weibull Distribution

Hypothesis Testing

Discrete Distributions
Binomial Distribution Poisson Distribution
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Sampling from Distributions

Normal Distribution
Review of Statistical Concepts
The probability of the normal random variable
Probabilities for the normal random variable are given by areas under the curve.

Sampling from Distributions

f ( x)

1 ( x ) 2 / 2 2 e 2

Where for Standard Normal Distribution

=0

Hypothesis Testing

=1

= 3.14159
e = 2.71828
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Sampling from Distributions

Normal Distribution
Review of Statistical Concepts
For a population that is normally distributed: approx. 68% of the data will lie within +1 standard deviation of the mean; approx. 95% of the data will lie within +2 standard deviations of the mean, and approx. 99.7% of the data will lie within +3 standard deviations of the mean.
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

Sampling from Distributions

Hypothesis Testing

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Sampling from Distributions

Review of Statistical Concepts

Sampling from Distributions

Hypothesis Testing

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Sampling from Distributions

Review of Statistical Concepts

Sampling from Distributions

Hypothesis Testing

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Sampling from Distributions

Review of Statistical Concepts

Sampling from Distributions

Hypothesis Testing

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Sampling from Distributions

Chi-square (2) Distribution

Review of Statistical Concepts
If x1, x2, , xn are normally and independently distributed random variables with mean zero and variance one, then the random variable

2 2 y x12 x2 ... xn
is distributed as chi-square with n degrees of freedom. Furthermore, the sampling distribution of n 2 i i 1 2

Sampling from Distributions

Hypothesis Testing

(x x)

(n 1) S 2

is chi-square with n 1 degrees of freedom when sampling from a normal population

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Sampling from Distributions

Chi-square (2) Distribution for various degrees of freedom.

Review of Statistical Concepts

Sampling from Distributions

Hypothesis Testing

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Sampling from Distributions

t-distribution
Review of Statistical Concepts
If x is a standard normal random variable and if y is a chi-square random variable with k degrees of freedom, then

Sampling from Distributions

x y k

is distributed as t with k degrees of freedom.

Hypothesis Testing

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Sampling from Distributions

F-distribution

Review of Statistical Concepts

If w and y are two independent chi-square random variables with u and v degrees of freedom, respectively, then

w/u F y/v
is distributed as F with u numerator degrees of freedom and v denominator degrees of freedom.

Sampling from Distributions

Hypothesis Testing

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Hypothesis Testing

Statistical Hypothesis
Review of Statistical Concepts
Statement (assumption) either about the parameters of probability distribution or parameters of a model. This assumption may or may not be true.

Statistical Hypothesis Test

A method of making statistical decisions using experimental data. It is typically consists of examining a random sample from the population. If sample data are consistent with the statistical hypothesis, the hypothesis is accepted; if not, it is rejected There are two types of statistical hypotheses:

Sampling from Distributions

Null Hypothesis. The null hypothesis, denoted by H0, is usually the hypothesis that sample observations result purely from chance. Alternative Hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis, denoted by H1 , which is the hypothesis that sample observations are influenced by some nonrandom cause.

Hypothesis Testing

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Hypothesis Testing

The significance level

Review of Statistical Concepts
, is the maximum probability tolerated for rejecting a true null hypothesis. The p value is the probability of a more extreme departure from the null hypothesis than the observed data

Sampling from Distributions

Hypothesis Testing

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Hypothesis Testing

The hypotheses are stated in such a way that they are mutually exclusive. That is, if one is true, the other must be false.

Review of Statistical Concepts

Errors in Hypothesis Testing

Type I error occurs when the null hypothesis is rejected when it is true, an error, or a "false positive". Thus indicating a test of poor specificity. Type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is false, a error, or a "false negative". Thus indicating a test of poor sensitivity. = P(type I error) = P(reject H0H0 is true) = P(type II error) = P(fail to reject H0H0 is false)

Sampling from Distributions

Hypothesis Testing

Power = 1- = P(reject H0H0 is false)

Critical Region or Rejection Region

A set of values in which the null hypothesis is rejected or failed in the test statistics.
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Hypothesis Testing

Steps for Hypothesis Testing

Review of Statistical Concepts
1. Formulate a null hypothesis, and the alternative hypothesis. The hypotheses are statements about the population parameters
2. State the test statistic 3. Define the level of significance of the test (the probability of rejecting when it is true) and hence the critical region. 4. Collect the data and calculate the observed value of the test statistic using the sample data and find the p-value. 5. Reject H0 if observed value of test statistic falls in critical region or pvalue is less than H0 . Otherwise there is no evidence to reject . 6. State the conclusions clearly in non-technical terms.

Sampling from Distributions

Hypothesis Testing

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