Quantify and analyze the risk of completing your projects on time and within budget.

Use realistic, quantifiable measures of risk. Plan appropriatesized contingency reserves. Evaluate alternative mitigation strategies.

Use Monte Carlo to create better, more realistic schedules and resource plans for your projects. Simulate the performance of your project and evaluate the likelihood of finishing on time or within budget. Make mid-project corrections as you accumulate actual performance data for your project. Get a quantifiable measure of risk for the whole project and for individual segments. This can help you reduce the risk of delivering late or running over budget by choosing correctly among alternative approaches and strategies. No other risk analysis software does so much or simulates so realistically.

How the world says project management

Quantify risks as you build your schedule.

Its a reality you face with every schedule: risk. Even the best-scheduled project involves risk. The truly comprehensive project plan controls it. And thats where Monte Carlo comes in. While a deterministic schedule uses only a single estimate of activity duration to calculate the project schedule, Monte Carlo looks at the range of possibilities. With Monte Carlo, you make more informed decisions from the earliest stages. Perform a go/no go analysis before placing a bid. And reduce risk by choosing a schedule with a high probability of success. Monitor risk as you manage your project. Use Monte Carlo to perform regular risk analyses throughout your project. As progress is reported and as resource availability changes, Monte Carlo assesses the impact on the remainder of your schedule. With a better perspective of the risk involved, you can make better decisions. Refine your initial strategy or change course. Measure the risk for smaller elements of your project. Monte Carlo helps you look at risk on a local as well as on a global scale. Examine a single phase of a project, a group of resources or a set of activities. Assess the risk involved. Do a what-if analysis with the risk adjusted to an acceptable level. And see the effect of that change on the entire schedule. Use Monte Carlo to examine criticalitythe likelihood that an activity will become criticaland help you focus attention.
In P3, you assign optimistic, likely and pessimistic durations for each activity. You can define decision points for branching logic to evaluate alternative courses of action within a single project plan.

Monte Carlo shows you the most likely cost for a project and the likelihood of completing it within budget. This chart has been annotated using Primavera Look.

Gauge the probability of on-time completion.

Determine the likelihood of meeting delivery dates. Monte Carlo even helps you model the range of costs for materials and calculate the possible effects of a strike using either the Monte Carlo or Latin Hypercube methods of simulation. Use QuickRisk to get a snapshot of project vulnerability. When you need a high-level, general risk assessment, QuickRisk gives you a fast look at project exposure. QuickRisk assigns probability assumptions globally to your project projections so you can see a risk profile of your project produced as fast and as easily as possible.
Monte Carlo offers modeling refinements including probabilistic calendars, correlation and inverse correlation groups, probabilistic and conditional branching, and user-definable distributions.

While QuickRisk is a great way to get started using Monte Carlo, you will want to refine your estimates based on specific conditions, management approaches and strategies for each activity. For example, you can evaluate alternative ways of performing the work with smarter, faster, cheaper or more experienced resources.

Identify the most likely duration for all projects or one project. See the likelihood of completion within a specific time period.

Set up contingencies that make sense.

Monte Carlo makes it simple to evaluate project risk. Monte Carlo is completely integrated with P3 using the same files and database. Once youve built your schedule in P3, run Monte Carlo right from within P3. Then use P3s powerful comparison graphics and reports to illustrate your position.

Now that you can see the range of possible outcomes, contingency allowances and reserves can be set to avoid embarrassment or failure to deliver.

A cost-time probability chart shows the cost and completion date of each iteration of the simulation. Notice the football encompassing 95 percent of the cases. The chart also shows the range of spending likely throughout the project.

Because Monte Carlo stores simulation results in P3 files, reports and graphics can be easily prepared.

Share the knowledge with reports to keep the team informed.

Keep management in the loop with reports that get your point across instantly. Monte Carlo comes with preformatted report templates that cover virtually every reporting situation: Activity Schedule Activity Status Total Float Occurrence Schedule Risk Criticality Cost Performance Cost Risk Schedule Logic Create the report that fits your needs precisely. Information from Monte Carlo simulation and Primavera Project Planner (P3) can be reported in P3 or by using the WYSIWYG custom report capabilities of ReportSmith.

Powerful analytical reports make it easy to pinpoint areas of concern in the project.

Monte Carlo gives you more of what you need to manage project risk more easily.
M O N T E C A R L O F E AT U R E S
Risk Analysis and Simulation Tools
Probabilistic calendars User definable distributions Custom distribution models Conditional branching using P3 activity code/custom data items Probabilistic range estimates of activity duration Probabilistic resource requirements Prices that vary over time Monte Carlo simulation Latin Hypercube simulation Criticality measures Conditional branching logic Unit cost tables Logic to describe reaction to external states Logic to define subnetworks and repeat chains Leveling subject to resource constraints Variable resource availability levels over time User-defined correlations among cost elements User-defined correlations among related work efforts Inverse correlation Standard Graphics Date Probability Duration Probability Cost Probability Cost-Time Envelope

General Features
Windows interface Comprehensive online help Support for P3 restricted access Opens from P3 File menu Editable Look

Complete Reporting
Standard Reports Activity Schedule Activity Status Total Float Occurrence Schedule Risk Criticality Cost Performance Cost Risk Schedule Logic Unlimited custom reports

Minimum Requirements
IBM PC or compatible with 486 8 Mb RAM 20 Mb disk space DOS 5.0+ and Windows 3.1, Windows 95 or Windows NT

Recommended Hardware
Pentium (586) PC with 16 Mb RAM

How the world says project management

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Copyright 1995 Primavera Systems, Inc. Trademarks () and registered trademarks () referenced in this brochure are owned by their respective companies.