Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| January 03, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| January 03, 2013

Highlights
US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 levels in December German Prelim CPI gained to 0.9 percent in the December. UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 levels in December. Spanish Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.6 levels in last month. Italian Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.7 levels in last month

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Jan13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Jan13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Jan13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield
100.98 0.0 5993.3 19714.2 13412.55

as on January 02, 2013 Prev. day

0.7 0.7 2.4

WoW
1.5 1.5 2.3

MoM
4.6 4.6 3.4

YoY
29.3 27.0 9.8

Asian markets are trading on a firm note on optimism that the US, largest economy of the world is on the path of recovery as the manufacturing data from the nation came on a favorable note. On the other hand the investors are also looking ahead for the negotiations on the US debt limit and spending cuts which need to be resolved. US Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell by 0.2 points to 54-mark in December as against a rise of 54.2-level in November. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI increased by 1.2 points to 50.7-level in December as against 49.5mark in last month.

1462.4
16893.4 2031.1 62550.1 10395.2 92.79 1686.80 31.00 8200.00

2.5
3.4 1.7 11.1 0.7 -0.4 0.7 2.8 4.9

3.8
3.4 2.5 2.6 -0.1 2.0 1.6 3.4 8.5

3.76
6.4 4.7 7.5 9.9 4.2 -1.9 -8.0 2.3

14.5
9.3 11.2 8.2 22.9 -6.1 7.7 11.2 7.6

US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) remained volatile throughout the day. The index ended 0.1 percent higher in yesterdays session. The index remained weak in most part of the day as US law makers were able to agree on the fiscal cliff issue. This caused positive market sentiments and reduced the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index. However, towards the end of the session weakness in the index were erased as the upbeat sentiments faded. This was on account that even though the legislation is passed to avert the fiscal cliff, the differences over the budget amongst the law makers still persist which could erupt again in the month of February. US equities settled higher in yesterdays session. Equities witnessed strength due to firm sentiments created after the US law makes were able to pass a legislation to avert the fiscal cliff issue. Additionally, favorable economic data from the nation also supported an upside in the stocks. The index touched an intra-day high of 80.03 and closed at 79.91 on Wednesday.

0.7

1.1

-1.6

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Jan13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Jan13 Futures (MCX-SX)
79.91 54.23

as on January 02, 2013 Prev. day

0.1 0.8

WoW
0.3 1.1

MoM
0.0 1.0

YoY
-0.8 -1.7

54.90 54.90

54.99 54.99

54.72 54.72

55.72 55.72

52.79 52.79

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated 0.8 percent on Wednesday taking cues from the positive global market sentiments after the US law makers were able to avert the fiscal cliff issue. Sustained capital inflows from the foreign institutions also supported appreciation in the currency. The rupee closed at 54.23 after touching an intra-day high of 54.23 on Wednesday. For the current month 2013 FII inflows totaled at Rs 1,689.40 crores till nd 2 January 2013. While year to date basis, net capital inflows for the year 2013 stood at Rs. 1689.30 crores.
Source: Telequote

Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate due to firmness in the Asian markets along with weakness in the DX. Sustained capital inflows from the foreign institution are also expected to keep the rupee appreciated. Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Jan13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for January 03, 2013 Support 54.40/54.10 Resistance 54.80/55.05

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| January 03, 2013

Euro/INR
Euro fell 0.2 percent in yesterdays session. The currency had gained in most part of the trade due to positive market sentiments created after US fiscal cliff issue was averted as it was passed in the legislation. Additionally, favorable economic data from the region also added to the gains in the currency. But towards the end of the session gains were erased as the positive sentiments over the resolution of the fiscal cliff issue faded. Even though the issue has been resolved, differences over the spending cuts amongst the law makers persisted and could emerge again in February. The currency touched an intra-day low of 1.3155 and closed at 1.3184 on Wednesday. Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 0.7 points to 44.6-mark in December as against a rise of 45.3-level in November. Italian Manufacturing PMI increased by 1.6 points to 46.7level in December from earlier rise of 45.1-mark in November. European Final Manufacturing PMI declined marginally by 0.2 points to 46.1-level in December as compared to rise of 46.3-mark a month ago. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to appreciate due to positive global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Jan13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 72.00/71.80 72.55/72.90 valid for January 03, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Jan 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Jan13 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.3184 71.53

as on January 02, 2013 Prev. day

-0.2 1.4

WoW
-0.3 1.2

MoM
1.0 -0.3

YoY
2.0 #N/A

72.22 72.2

-0.68 -0.69

-0.43 -0.44

1.02 1.01

4.14 4.14

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Jan13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Jan 13 Futures (MCX-SX)
1.6255

as on January 02, 2013

Prev. day
0.1

WoW
0.7

MoM
1.0

YoY
4.9

88.14 88.8175

-0.76 -0.52

-0.36 0.20

0.23 0.81

6.63 7.05

GBP/INR
The Pound gained 0.1 percent in yesterdays session taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments. Weakness in the DX in most part of the trade also supported appreciation in the currency. Additionally, favorable economic data from the region also added to the gains in the currency. The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.638 and closed at 1.6255 on Wednesday. UKs Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 2.2 points to 51.4-level in December from previous rise of 49.2-mark in November. Outlook In todays session, we expect Pound to trade with upward bias on the back of firm global market sentiments along weakness in the DX. Favorable data from the nation is also expected to support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Jan 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for January 03, 2013 Support 88.60/88.38 Resistance 89.00/89.20

88.8175

-0.52

0.20

0.81

7.05

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| January 03, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.7 percent yesterday on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. It touched an intra-day low of 87.34 and closed at same levels on Wednesday.
Last JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Jan13 Futures (NSE)
87.34

as on January 02, 2013 Prev day

0.8

WoW
2.0

MoM
6.2

YoY
13.6

0.6215 62.69 62.68

-1.57 -2.63 -1.56

-2.95 -2.63 -2.64

-6.49 -6.26 -6.19

-10.32 -9.95 -9.94

Outlook For the intra-day, we expect to yen to depreciate due to rise in the risk appetite in the global markets and thereby decline in demand for the low yielding currency.

JPY 100 / INR Jan13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Jan 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for January 03, 2013 Support 62.30/61.90 Resistance 63.00/63.40

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on January 03, 2013

Indicator Bank Holiday Bank Holiday Nationwide HPI m/m Non-Manufacturing PMI m/m Spanish Unemployment Change m/m German Unemployment Change m/m M3 Money Supply y/y Construction PMI m/m ADP Non-Farm Employment Change m/m Unemployment Claims Country Japan China UK CNY EUR EUR EUR GBP US US Time (IST) All day All day 12:30pm 6:30am 1:30pm 2:25 pm 2:30 pm 3:00 pm 6:45 pm 7:00 pm Actual 56.1 50.3k 11k 3.8% 49.6 134k 356k Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0% 55.6 74.3k 5k 3.9% 49.3 118k 350k Impact Medium Low Medium Medium Medium High High High

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