Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | January 3, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | January 3, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis UK Nationwide HPI declined 0.1 percent in December . Spanish Unemployment Change declined to -59.1K in last month. German Unemployment Change declined to 3K in November. UK Construction PMI fell 48.7 levels in December. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Open 5993.25 19770.91 10406.36 2041.24 60990.34 High 6016.70 19785.95 10433.63 2042.48 62886.96

as at 4.30 pm 3 January 13
Low 5986.75 19694.61 10374.85 2018.49 60990.34 Last 6009.50 19764.78 10395.18 2019.41 62550.10 % Chg from Prev day 0.27 0.26 0.70 -0.58 2.62
Source: Reuters

European markets are trading on a weak note as the US budget deal which was resolved might be able to reduce the US government deficit. This is creating worries amongst the market participants and pressurizing the stocks. Asian markets ended on a firm note and US index futures are trading on a bearish note. Spot gold prices declined 0.15 percent due to worries that the budget deal agreed upon might not be enough to cover the budget deficit. This is creating bearish market sentiments. Strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the yellow metal prices. In the domestic markets, gold prices gained 0.3 percent due to depreciation in the rupee and are trading around Rs.31119 per 10 gms till 4:30 p.m today. Spot silver prices are trading 0.19 percent down taking cues from weakness in the spot gold prices and strength in the Dx. However, firmness in the base metals pack cushioned fall in the silver prices. MCX silver prices gained 0.3 percent due to depreciation in the Indian rupee. Silver prices on MCX are trading around Rs. 59100 per kg till 4:30 p.m today. Base metals prices are trading on a firm note due to favorable economic data from the US, China, UK. Strength in the DX along with rise in the LME inventories in most of the metals restricted sharp gains in the base metals. In the domestic market, depreciation in the rupee added to the gains in the base metal prices on MCX. Copper prices traded on a firm note and are currently hovering around $8224 per tonne taking cues from positive data from the major consuming nations along with decline in the LME inventories today. Strength in the DX is expected to cap gains in the copper prices. In the domestic market Copper prices are trading 0.9 percent higher tracing gains in the international prices amidst depreciation in the rupee. Crude oil prices are trading 0.6 percent down as the worries of the budget deficit in US has again emerged causing bearish market sentiments. Budget deficit might reduce the demand in the coming days exerting downside pressure on the oil prices.

Nikkei Kospi FTSE

as at 4.30 pm 3 January 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 79.93 1.3185 54.34 High 80.29 1.319 54.60 Low 79.92 1.3093 54.16 Current 80.245 1.3096 54.55 % Chg from Prev day 0.37 -0.67 0.59
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 3 January 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Feb13 MCX Gold Feb13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Mar13 MCX Silver Mar 13 Crude Oil Nymex Jan 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Jan 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Feb13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Jan13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Jan13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX - Jan13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Jan13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1686.16 1686.10 31027 31.00 28.23 58785 92.91 112.20 5073 8202.50 453.10 2144.00 116.40 2435 131.80 17616 968.10 2162.00 116.70

1689.60 1686.80 31165 31.18 31.335 59340 92.98 112.33 5073 8256.50 454.65 2187.25 118.05 2499 135.60 17880 976.80 2184.00 117.95

1682.54 1686.10 31027 30.85 30.585 58753 92.49 111.63 5051 8181.00 451.95 2140.00 115.90 2424 131.70 17616 966.80 2158.00 116.70

1683.83 1686.80 31119 30.91 30.952 59100 92.59 111.77 5059 8224.00 454.10 2163.50 117.10 2455 133.65 17765 972.60 2172.50 117.65

-0.15 -0.07 0.25 -0.19 2.58 0.27 -0.57 -0.62 0.20 0.29 0.88 1.00 1.74 1.18 1.98 0.45 1.00 0.53 1.20

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | January 3, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals and crude oil prices to trade with a bearish note as the worries has reemerged as budget deal agreed upon might not be enough to reduce the deficit. Strength in the DX is also expected to exert downside pressure on the commodities. Base metals prices might however trade with upward bias due to series of favorable data from the major consuming nations. Strength in the DX is however, expected to cap gains.

Technical Outook for evening session 3 January 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Feb'13 Spot Gold Silver Mar13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Jan '13 Nymex Crude Oil Jan13 Natural Gas Jan13 Copper Feb 13 Zinc Jan13 Lead Jan13 Aluminum Jan13 Nickel Jan13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 30805 1668 58025 30.20 4996 90.5 170.4 448.8 114.8 130.05 115.25 958 Support 1 30997 1675 58805 30.5 5022 91.74 174 450.15 115.6 131.4 116.4 964 CMP 31087 1681.5 59010 30.87 5061 92.58 176.3 453.75 117.1 133.65 117.55 972.6 Resistance1 31235 1697 59700 31.60 5085 94.05 178.7 455 118.05 135.4 118 977 Resistance 2 31430 1708 60400 32.2 5122 95.1 181.6 457.15 118.4 136.3 118.5 981

Important Events for Today

Indicator Bank Holiday Bank Holiday Nationwide HPI m/m Spanish Unemployment Change German Unemployment Change M3 Money Supply y/y M3 Money Supply y/y BOE Credit Conditions Survey French 10-y Bond Auction ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Claims Country Japan China UK Euro Euro Euro UK UK EUR US US Time (IST) All day All day 12:30pm 1:30pm 2:25pm 2:30pm 3:00pm 3:00pm 3:30 p.m 6:45pm 7:00pm Actual -0.1% -59.1K 3K 3.8% -0.8% 2.07|1.7 134K 356K Forecast 0.1% 50.3K 11K 3.8% 49.6 Previous 0.0% 74.3K 5K 3.9% 49.3 2.22|2.0 118K 350K Impact Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium High High