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Texas Economic Indicators



The Texas economy continues to expand, with employment growing at a 2.6 percent annual rate in November. Texas existing-home sales increased in November, while single-family construction permits and housing starts declined. Texas exports ticked up slightly in October. Manufacturing activity edged up in December, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Employment Growth
Month-over-month percent change, annualized


7! 5! 3! 1! -1! -3! -5! -7! 2009! 2010! Texas! U.S.! 2011! 2012!

Texas gained 23,000 jobs in November after adding 23,500 jobs in October. Current Texas employment stands at 10.97 million. The Texas unemployment rate dipped to 6.2 percent in November from 6.6 percent in October. The Texas rate remains lower than the U.S. rate, which was 7.7 percent in November.

Existing-Home Sales
Thousand units, seasonally adjusted annual rate

7,000! 6,000! 5,000! 4,000! 3,000! 2,000! 1,000! 2009!




San Antonio!

Texas existing-home sales rose 1.1 percent in November and are up 19.1 percent from year-ago levels. Sales in Dallas, Houston and San Antonio are up from October, while Austin sales edged down. Texas single-family housing construction permits declined 0.9 percent in November, the first decline since June, and Texas housing starts decreased 4.6 percent. Home inventories edged down to 4.9 months of available supply in November, pushing further below the six-month-supply marker signaling a tight market and rising prices. Monthly Texas exports rose 0.6 percent from September to October, marking a third consecutive month of increase. October exports were 6.4 percent higher than at the same time last year.




Texas Exports
2000 dollars (millions)

18,000! 17,000! 16,000! 15,000! 14,000! 13,000! 12,000! 11,000! 10,000! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012!

Crude Oil Prices


Natural Gas Prices

$/million Btu

Texas Rig Count

Active rigs

$140! $120! $100! $80! $60! $40! $20! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012!

$6! $5! $4! $3! $2! $1!














The West Texas Intermediate crude oil price rose 1.8 percent to $88.25 per barrel in December and was down 10.5 percent year over year.

Natural gas prices declined to $3.34 per million Btu in December, a 5.9 percent decrease from the November level. The price was 5.7 percent higher than in December 2011.

The Texas rig count fell to 838 in December from 850 in November and was down 8.1 percent year over year.

Texas Business-Cycle Index

8! 6! 4! 2! 0! -2! -4! -6! -8! 2000! 2002! 2004! 2006! 2008! 2010! 2012!

Growth in the Texas Business-Cycle Index has rebounded after a midyear dip. The index grew 5.1 percent from October to November. The Dallas Fed index combines movements in employment, the unemployment rate and state real gross domestic product to provide a broader view of the states economic health. Periods of negative change in the index indicate recessions in Texas.

Production Index Texas Manufacturing


30! 20! 10! 0! -10! -20! -30! -40! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012!

Texas factory activity edged up in Decem ber, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at 2.7, consistent with slow growth. The Dallas Fed conducts the monthly Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey to obtain a timely assessment of the states factory activity.

NOTE: Data may not match previously published numbers due to data revisions. SOURCES: Employment: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Texas Workforce Commission; seasonal and other adjustments by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Housing: FHFA; Multiple Listing Service; U.S. Census Bureau; Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. All housing data are seasonally adjusted. Exports: U.S. Census Bureau; World Institute for Strategic Economic Research; seasonal and other adjustments by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Energy: Wall Street Journal; Henry Hub; Baker Hughes. Texas Business-Cycle Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Data are seasonally adjusted. Texas Manufacturing Production Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Data are seasonally adjusted. Questions can be addressed to Melissa LoPalo at melissa.lopalo@dal.frb.org. Texas Economic Indicators is released on the first Wednesday of every month and can be found online at www. dallasfed.org/research/indicators/index.cfm.