Assignment 2 APMC Mkt

Systems Modeling & Simulation

Prof. Girja Sharan, Bhavesh Dharmani
Submitted by: Shah Abhishek (Roll No -2), Kumar Abhishek (Roll No- 6)

3/1/2013

The below assignment is the further analysis on the APMC market; effect of changes in Inter arrival time and Service time.

As presented in the APMC market case, there is a problem of congestion at the gate. This congestion relates to the Inter arrival time of the trucks and the Service time on the trucks. Further analysis to the existing project is made by changing the mean Inter arrival time and the mean service times as below: Case I Mean Inter arrival time is changed to 3 min, keeping service time constant. Case II Mean Inter arrival time is changed to 3.5 min, keeping service time constant. Case III Mean Service time is changed to 3.5 min, keeping Inter arrival time constant. Case IV Mean Service time is changed to 4.5 min, keeping Inter arrival time constant. The below analysis and their inference gives us the insight into the impact of change in Inter arrival time and the Service time: Case I Mean Inter arrival time is changed to 3 min, keeping service time constant.

Interarrival time - 3min, same service time 4min

0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 expo freq Int rel freq

Inference from the above simulation: As the mean Inter arrival time reduces from current mean of 4.9min to 3min with the same service time of 4min, the probability of arrival of trucks during 1-2 min is higher than the service time required leading to the congestion at the gate due to more service time. Also at time 5-7 min the probability of arrival is more hence leading to congestion. Rest all the time the service time is appropriate for the truck arrivals.

Case II Mean Inter arrival time is changed to 3.5 min, keeping service time constant

Interarrival time - 3.5m,same service time 4min

0.3 0.25

0.2
0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 expo freq Int rel freq

Inference from the above simulation: As the mean Inter arrival time reduces from current mean of 4.9min to 3.5min with the same service time of 4min, the probability of arrival of trucks during 1-2 min is higher than the service time required leading to the congestion at the gate due to more service time. Also at time 5-8 min the probability of arrival is more hence leading to congestion. Rest all the time the service time is appropriate for the truck arrivals. On Comparison of Case I and Case II; the service time is optimally utilized with the probability of arrival of the trucks, as in Case II there is a probability of service bay being idle.

Case III Mean Service time is changed to 3.5 min, keeping Inter arrival time constant.

Service time - 3.5min,same interval time 4.9min

0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 expo rel freq Ser rel freq

Inference from the above simulation: As the mean service time reduces from current mean of 4min to 3.5min with the same mean inter arrival time of 4.9min, the probability of arrival of trucks during 14min is lower than the service time required leading to no congestion at the gate due to fast service. Rest all the time the service time is appropriate for the truck arrivals as the probability of servicing fast is more.

Case IV Mean Service time is changed to 4.5 min, keeping Inter arrival time constant.

Service time - 4.5m,same interval time 4min

0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

rel freq

Ser rel freq

expo

Inference from the above simulation: As the mean service time increases from current mean of 4min to 4.5min with the same mean inter arrival time of 4.9min, the probability of arrival of trucks during 14min is lower than the service time required leading to no congestion at the gate due to fast service. However the service time probability being lower for most of the time from 2 to 6 min, there may be congestion due to delay in service. Rest all the time the service time is appropriate for the truck arrivals as the probability of servicing fast is more.

Conclusion: After achieving optimum efficiencies in reducing the congestion by changing either the Inter arrival time or the service time, there are likely chances of improving further with a combination of both. i.e. reduction in service time as well as reduction in inter arrival time. This is possible with addition of an extra gate and also additional equipment for loading and unloading.

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