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Outline of Presentation
I.
Introduction
II. 2009 Official Poverty Statistics A. National B. Regional/Provincial III. Some Policy/Program Implications
I. Introduction SOURCE OF OFFICIAL POVERTY STATISTICS IN THE PHILIPPINES Executive Order 352 Designation of Statistical Activities that will Generate Critical Data for Decision-making of the Government and the Private Sector Issued on July 1, 1996 The Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics (TC PovStat) created by the NSCB is in charge of the formulation/development of the official poverty estimation methodology. The NSCB generates and releases the official poverty statistics in the Philippines.
I. Introduction
SOME DEFINITIONS What is the Food Threshold? Refers to the minimum income/expenditure required for a family/individual to meet the basic food needs, which satisfies the nutritional requirements for economically necessary and socially desirable physical activities
I. Introduction
SOME DEFINITIONS What is the Poverty Threshold? Refers to the minimum income/expenditure required for a family/individual to meet the basic food and non-food requirements
Basic Non-Food Requirement includes: 1) clothing and footwear; 2) fuel, light and water; 3) housing maintenance and other minor repairs; 4) rental of occupied dwelling units; 5) medical care; 6) education; 7) transportation & communication; 8) non-durable furnishing; 9) household operations and 10) personal care and effects Basic Non-Food Requirement excludes: 1) recreation; 2) tobacco; 3) alcoholic beverages; 4) durable furnishings; 5) taxes; 6) special family occasion expenditure; 7) total gifts and contributions; 8) total other disbursements (e.g., major repair of house, loans granted to person outside family; amortization of real property).
I. Introduction
SOME DEFINITIONS Who are the Food Poor/Core Poor? Refers to families/individuals with per capita income/expenditure less than the per capita food threshold
Who are the Poor? Refers to families/individuals with per capita income/expenditure less than the per capita poverty threshold
If a family is poor, all the members of the family are considered poor
I. Introduction
SOME DEFINITIONS What is the Magnitude of the Food Poor/Core Poor? Refers to the number of families/individuals who are food poor/core poor
What is the Magnitude of the Poor? Refers to the number of families/individuals who are poor
I. Introduction
SOME DEFINITIONS What is subsistence incidence? Refers to the proportion of families/individuals with per capita income/expenditure less than the per capita food threshold to the total number of families/ individuals Is Equal to the proportion of the food poor What is poverty incidence? Refers to the proportion of families/individuals with per capita income/expenditure less than the per capita poverty threshold to the total number of families/individuals Is Equal to the proportion of the poor Both subsistence incidence and poverty incidence can be expressed as proportion of families or proportion of individuals
Human Development Cluster Meeting RAVirola/17 March 2011
I. Introduction
The 1st official poverty estimation methodology was adopted in 1987. Between 1987-2011 (24 years), there were three refinements on the methodology since its adoption. History of the official poverty estimation methodology Year 1987 1992 2003 1st 2nd Refinements were made so as not to overestimate poverty Refinements were made to generate provincial poverty statistics by using regional menus priced using provincial prices. Refinenements were undertaken to enhance comparability of estimates across space and over time.
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Refinements
Considerations
2010
3rd
I. Introduction
SOME CONSIDERATIONS IN REFINING THE METHODOLOGY: 1. To introduce refinements in the methodology at the beginning of the administration (or end of the administration) to avoid misconceptions that the refinements are politically motivated. . Back estimates using the refined methodology should be released to ensure that trend analysis could be undertaken in the poverty estimates. Enhance comparability of poverty estimates across space. Enhance comparability of poverty estimates over time. To review the methodology every ten years/use the methodology for at least 12 years (two administrations)
2.
3. 4. 5.
Provincial Indirect
+/-10 percentile band around the food threshold per province urban-rural
Provincial Indirect
+/-10 percentile band around the food threshold at the national level
Constant/Changing
Changing
Constant
(Average of 2000, 2003, 2006 and 2009)
I. Introduction
National food bundle PROVINCIAL food bundle
100% RENI for energy 100% RENI for protein 80% RENI for vitamins and minerals
Visualizable
LEAST cost
Actual Prices
Farmgate Price
Retail Price
FOOD THRESHOLD
I. Introduction
ACTUAL Non-Food Basic Needs Education Clothing & footwear Medical care Transportation & communication Fuel, light & water Housing Housing maintenance & other minor repairs Non-durable furnishings Household operations Personal care & effects Rental of occupied dwelling unit
Food threshold
POVERTY THRESHOLD
I. Introduction
National reference food bundle from the Test of Revealed Preference
Meal Time Breakfast Viands Scrambled egg Coffee with milk Boiled rice/rice-corn mix Lunch Boiled/ginataang monggo with malunggay and dried dilis Banana Boiled rice/corn mix Dinner Fried fish/boiled pork Vegetable dish Boiled rice/rice-corn mix Snacks Bread or boiled rootcrop
I. Introduction
National reference food bundle from the Test of Revealed Preference
Meal Time Breakfast Viands Scrambled egg Coffee with milk Boiled rice/rice-corn mix Lunch Boiled/ginataang monggo with malunggay and dried dilis Banana Boiled rice/corn mix Dinner Fried fish/boiled pork Vegetable dish Boiled rice/rice-corn mix Snacks Bread or boiled rootcrop
I. Introduction
National reference food bundle from the Test of Revealed Preference
Meal Time Breakfast Viands Scrambled egg Coffee with milk Boiled rice/rice-corn mix Lunch Boiled/ginataang monggo with malunggay and dried dilis Banana Boiled rice/corn mix Dinner Fried fish/boiled pork Vegetable dish Boiled rice/rice-corn mix Snacks Bread or boiled rootcrop
18
Magnitude of Poor
7,953
-11.8%
4,869
-7.7%
6,274
7,017
-11.3%
3,395
-7.0%
3,857
5,562
3,157
4,573
2003
Old
2006
Refined
2009
2003
Old
2006
Refined
2009
26.9
26.3
-5.4
20.0
20.0
10.2 11.0
-2.3
20.0
21.1
20.9
10.3
-2.4
10.0
-2.0
10.0
8.2
2003
Old
8.7
7.9
0.0
2006
Refined
2009
2003
Old
2006
Refined
2009
160
150 100
Inflation for food: 50 2006-2009:24.3%
150
79
2009
1991
2003
2006
2009
Note: Applying 2010/ Ave. of Jan & Feb 2011 Food CPI to 2009 Food threshold:
Note: Applying 2010/ Ave. of Jan and Feb. 2011 CPI for all items to 2009 poverty threshold:
2010 threshold= PhP 240 2011 threshold= PhP 246 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
21
28.3
21.1[20.3, 21.8]
[19.2, 20.7]
13.3
[7.8, 8.7]
15.0
20.0
(0.2)
20.9
8.2
8.7
(0.8)
[8.2, 9.1]
[20.2, 21.6]
7.9
[7.5, 8.3]
28.3
21.1[20.3, 21.8]
[19.2, 20.7]
13.3
[7.8, 8.7]
15.0
20.0
(0.2)
20.9
8.2
8.7
(0.8)
[8.2, 9.1]
[20.2, 21.6]
7.9
[7.5, 8.3]
35 30 25
33.1
[25.5, 27.3] [24.1, 25.8]
26.4 26.5
[25.6, 27.3]
24.9
0.1
20 15 10 5 0
10.8
[10.3, 11.3]
1991
35 30 25
33.1
[25.5, 27.3] [24.1, 25.8]
26.4 26.5
[25.6, 27.3]
24.9
0.1
20 15 10 5 0
10.8
[10.3, 11.3]
1991
4.00
3.86
1.60
1.50
1.51
3.50
3.39 3.29
5.2%
1.36
1.00
1.45
(4.0%)
3.00 2.50 2.00
0.50
1991
15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 11.00 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00
23.14
22.17 20.89
10.40 8.80
9.85
21.00 20.00
4.4 %
19.80
9.44
(4.2%)
1991 2003 2006 2009
2003
2006
2009
improved between 2006 and 2009 except for the increases in the poverty incidence among population, magnitude of poor families and magnitude of poor population. The increases, however, were not as much as between 2003 and 2006! Summary of increases/decreases:
Indicator AMONG FAMILIES Subsistence Incidence, Families Poverty Incidence, Families Magnitude of Food Poor Families Magnitude of Poor Families AMONG POPULATION Subsistence Incidence, Population Poverty Incidence, Population Magnitude of Food Poor Population Magnitude of Poor Population +0.6 + 1.5 +1.05 million +2.38 million - 0.9 + 0.1 - 0.41 million + 0.97 million + 0.5 + 1.1 + 154,000 + 378,000 - 0.8 - 0.2 - 58,000 + 185,000 2003 to 2006 2006 to 2009
28
FGT measure
2003
2006
2009
In 2009, the average income of a poor Pinoy needed to be increased by 25.7% of the poverty threshold or Php 4,328 ; Assuming direct cash transfers, this means that the government needed a total of PhP 100.2 billion in 2009 to eliminate poverty in the country. It must be noted that budget allocated for CCT amounts to: 2009 7.9B; 2010 10B; 2011 21.194B 29 RAVirola/17 March 2011
Human Development Cluster Meeting
7,389
11,263 14,599 18,249 22,781 28,493 36,551 48,200 69,335
9,681
14,542 18,542 23,003 28,281 35,068 44,358 58,362 83,662
31.0
29.1 27.0 26.0 24.1 23.1 21.4 21.1 20.7
31
Human Development Cluster Meeting RAVirola/17 March decile class Tenth 2011
32
13.5 14.4 17.1 13.2 15.7 12.9 10.8 11.3 12.1 11.0 2.8 10.5 11.6 8.5 7.9 7.9 8.3 7.6 7.1 5.5 4.3 4.1 3.7 3.7 2.8 2.4 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 0.7 0.4
33
36.1 36.0 31.1 33.2 32.7 32.8 33.5 30.2 27.1 28.1 34.3 27.6 26.2 25.6 22.1 23.8 20.4 17.8 18.6 17.1 15.5 14.5 12.0 12.0 9.4 10.3 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 3.4 2.6
Region PHILIPPINES
Magnitude of Food Poor Families 2003 2006 2009 1,357,833 1,511,579 1,453,843
% Share to Total Food Poor Families 2003 2006 2009 100.0 100.0 100.0
34
Region VIII 83,573 Region IX 147,137 Region VI 114,929 Region XI 99,437 Caraga 69,100 Region XII 74,990 Region III 40,820 Region IV-B 55,517 Region IV-A 53,487 Region I 51,127 ARMM 36,952 Region II 23,790 CAR 16,151 Human Development Cluster Meeting NCR RAVirola/17 March 2011 7,677
6.2 7.3 10.8 7.8 8.5 7.2 7.3 6.7 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.3 3.0 4.6 4.1 5.4 3.9 4.1 3.8 4.4 2.7 4.1 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.7 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 0.6 1.0
35
Region VIII 227,458 Region X 239,874 Region IV-A 201,725 Region III 169,771 Region IX 237,898 Region XI 205,966 Region XII 192,545 ARMM 126,233 Caraga 156,221 Region I 156,261 Region IV-B 148,924 Region II 89,352 NCR 48,923 Human Development Cluster Meeting CAR 45,088 RAVirola/17 March 2011
287,156 6.9 6.9 275,433 7.3 7.0 248,179 6.1 5.7 244,273 5.2 6.2 242,285 7.2 6.1 226,284 6.3 6.0 224,882 5.8 5.5 218,043 3.8 5.3 187,278 4.7 4.5 179,179 4.7 5.3 162,609 4.5 5.1 94,433 2.7 2.6 64,404 1.5 2.2 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 54,949 1.4 1.5
PHILIPPINES
Region VII ARMM Region V Region I Region XI CAR Region X Region IV-A
NCR Region II Region VI Region III Region XII Region IX Region VIII Human Development Cluster Meeting Caraga RAVirola/17 March 2011 Region IV-B
8.2
16.0 7.3 18.0 5.8 12.3 5.8 16.1 2.4
0.3 4.1 9.1 2.3 10.6 25.1 11.1 16.6 11.1
8.7
17.1 11.6 15.7 7.1 12.1 8.3 16.3 2.8
0.7 4.3 7.9 3.7 10.8 17.9 13.5 16.9 2.8
7.9
13.2 8.5 12.9 5.5 11.0 7.6 15.6 2.4 1.1 4.3 (2.2) 1.2 (0.2) 2.5 0.2 0.3
0.4
(0.8)
(3.8) (3.1) (2.9) (1.6) (1.1) (0.7) (0.6) (0.3)
36
0.4 0.3 (0.3) 4.1 0.3 (0.2) 7.9 (1.1) 0.9 3.7 1.4 1.0 11.3 0.2 1.7 18.6 (7.1) 1.7 14.4 2.4 2.1 19.7 0.3 2.4 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 10.5 (8.3) 3.0
PHILIPPINES
Region IV-B Region VII Region I CAR Region II NCR Region XI Region V
Region III Region X Region IV-A Region XII ARMM Region VI Region VIII Human Development Cluster Meeting Region IX RAVirola/17 March 2011 Caraga
20.0
29.8 32.1 17.8 16.1 15.2 2.1 25.4 38.0
9.4 32.4 9.2 27.2 25.0 23.5 30.2 40.5 37.6
21.1
34.3 33.5 20.4 18.6 15.5 3.4 26.2 36.1
12.0 32.7 9.4 27.1 36.5 22.1 31.1 34.2 36.9
20.9
27.6 30.2 17.8 17.1 14.5 2.6 25.6 36.0 4.5 1.4 2.6 2.4 0.3 1.3 0.9 (1.9) (6.7) (3.2) (2.6) (1.5) (1.1) (0.8) (0.6) (0.1)
37
12.0 2.6 0.1 32.8 0.2 0.2 10.3 0.1 0.9 28.1 (0.1) 1.0 38.1 11.4 1.7 23.8 (1.4) 1.7 33.2 1.0 2.1 36.6 (6.3) 2.4 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 39.8 (0.7) 3.0
-21,409
150,000
100,000
-19,541
50,000
I I I II M V X II III VI IX XI -B -A n ga XI VI M n VI n n n n IV IV io ra on on n R n io o o o o n g A g gi gi io io gi gi gi gi io Ca on on Re Re eg eg Re Re gi gi Re eg Re Re Re R R R Re Re CA R NC R
VII (08-09)
X 34
VIII 46
IX 49
VI 23
XI 14
Caraga 52
XII 16
IV-A III IV-B I ARMM II CAR NCR NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 8 35 27 7 19 19 5 28
-17,567
450,000 400,000
42,867
350,000
33,808
300,000 250,000
37,349 -24,229
200,000 150,000
-16,423
100,000 50,000 I VI V VI II VI X -A IV III IX XI I XI M ga M ra R A Ca I -B IV II R NC R CA
VII
VI
VIII
X 34
IV-A 7
III 35
IX 49
XI 14
XII
ARMM
Caraga
IV-B
II
NCR
CAR 28
2,500,000
2009
264,651
2,000,000
166,500 263,315
1,500,000
-107,790 -141,498
1,000,000
-146,477
500,000
V I VI VI II VI X -A IV III M M R A IX I XI XI a ag ar C I -B IV II NC R R CA
V (08-09)
VII
VI 23
VIII 46
X 34
IV-A 7
III 35
ARMM 49
IX 14
264,651
2,000,000
2009
166,550 263,315
1,500,000
-107,790 -141,498
1,000,000
-146,477
500,000
V I VI VI II VI X -A IV III M M R A IX I XI XI a ag ar C I -B IV II R NC R CA
VII
VI
VIII
IV-A 7
III 35
ARMM 19
IX 49
XII
XI
Caraga
IV-B
II
NCR
CAR
1st District 2nd District 3rd District 4th District Bataan Batanes Benguet Bulacan Cavite Ilocos Norte Laguna Nueva Vizcaya
42
Pampanga 4.9 Human Development Cluster Meeting Rizal 2.9 RAVirola/17 March 2011
Agusan del Sur Apayao Bohol Camarines Norte Camarines Sur Camiguin Davao Oriental Eastern Samar Lanao del Norte Maguindanao Masbate Misamis Occidental Negros Oriental Northern Samar Occidental Mindoro Romblon Saranggani Siquijor Sultan Kudarat Sulu Surigao Del Norte Tawi-tawi
44
-13,996
2003
120,000
-21,199
100,000
2006 2009
80,000
60,000
40,000
-14,978
20,000
n na si a ng N l ta en ri O is M l ta en ri O an w la Pa ro do in lM ue tiq n ta en id ro do in lM ic tr is D t s le ba m Za aw i -t w Ta i
Pa
os gr e
is m a
a nt ie r O
d 2n
cc O
Pangasinan
Negros Oriental
Misamis Oriental
Palawa n
Oriental Mindoro
Antique
Occidental Mindoro
2nd District
Zambales
Tawi-Tawi
10
14
19,972 24,945
18,957
os gr e
va ue N
de
ao an L
ur lS de
al iz R
ga an p am P
Negros Occidental
Nueva Ecija
Iloilo
South Cotabato
Sulu
Misamis Occidental
Rizal
Pampanga
11
15
Province
Pangasinan
Nueva Ecija
5.9% 3.3%
Camarines Sur
Negros Occidental
14.9%
Bohol
2.8%
In 2009, 23 (or 27%) out of 85 provinces/NCR districts with small magnitude of FOOD POOR families, were included in the CCT program.
# of Total Population Percent Cluster provinces in 2009 Distribution 1 15 13.0 12,008,400 2 23 13,564,900 14.7 3 24 32,188,900 34.9 4 9 8,073,200 8.8 5 14 28.6 26,391,200
Cluster 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL
II. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics In NCR, the average per capita income of the bottom 10% of families rose faster than prices of food and all items!
Statistics/ Income decile class Food Thres hold Subs istence Incidence (among fam ilies) Inflation (food) Poverty Threshold Poverty Incidence (among fam ilies) Inflation (all items ) Mean per capita income All income groups First decile class Second decile clas s Third decile class Fourth Decile clas s Fifth Decile clas s Sixth Decile class Seventh Decile class Eighth Decile clas s Ninth Decile class Human Development Cluster Meeting Tenth Decile class RAVirola/17 March 2011 NCR 2003 9,776 0.3 108.5 13,997 2.1 114.5 2006 11,515 0.7 127.8 16,487 3.4 140.7 2009 13,831 0.4 153.5 19,802 2.6 156.9 % change 03-06 06-09 17.8 20.1 0.4 17.8 17.8 1.3 22.9 (0.3) 20.1 20.1 (0.8) 11.5
57,683 16,132 23,567 29,031 34,145 40,100 48,199 58,124 74,030 102,336 235,805
66,106
77,462
14.6
17.2
55
17,496 21,714 8.5 24.1 26,395 31,097 12.0 17.8 33,051 39,112 13.8 18.3 40,037 47,069 17.3 17.6 47,945 56,273 19.6 17.4 57,777 67,964 19.9 17.6 71,696 83,226 23.4 16.1 92,717 107,377 25.2 15.8 127,839 145,456 24.9 13.8 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 263,928 309,122 11.9 17.1
II. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics In CAR, the average per capita income of families belonging to the 1st and 2nd decile classes rose faster than prices of food and all items!
Statistics/ Income decile class Food Threshold Subs istence Incidence (among fam ilies) Inflation (food) Poverty Threshold Poverty Incidence (among fam ilies) Inflation (all items ) Mean per capita income All income groups First decile class Second decile class Third decile class Fourth Decile clas s Fifth Decile clas s Sixth Decile class Seventh Decile class Eighth Decile clas s Human DevelopmentNinth Decile class Cluster Meeting Tenth Decile class RAVirola/17 March 2011 CAR 2003 7,636 5.8 106.8 10,881 16.1 115.2 2006 9,001 8.3 128.4 12,976 18.6 140.0 2009 11,249 7.6 158.4 16,122 17.1 160.9 % change 03-06 06-09 17.9 25.0 2.5 20.2 19.3 2.4 21.5 (0.7) 23.4 24.3 (1.5) 14.9
31,260 6,948 10,428 13,813 17,051 21,730 27,309 34,611 45,200 64,530 122,662
39,989
46,694
27.9
16.8
56
7,561 9,617 8.8 27.2 11,645 14,828 11.7 27.3 15,371 19,488 11.3 26.8 19,504 24,866 14.4 27.5 24,782 31,376 14.0 26.6 31,482 39,751 15.3 26.3 41,103 49,596 18.8 20.7 55,442 64,151 22.7 15.7 79,832 91,944 23.7 15.2 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 177,643 194,703 44.8 9.6
II. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics In Region I, the average per capita income of families belonging to the 1st and 2nd decile class rose faster than prices of food and all items!
Statistics/ Income decile class Food Threshold Subsistence Incidence (among families) Inflation (food) Poverty Threshold Poverty Incidence (among families) Inflation (all items) Mean per capita income All income groups First decile class Second decile class Third decile class Fourth Decile class Fifth Decile class Sixth Decile class Seventh Decile class Eighth Decile class Ninth Decile class Tenth Decile class Human Development Cluster Meeting Region I 2003 8,269 5.8 111.1 11,791 17.8 112.9 2006 10,016 7.1 135.3 14,350 20.4 139.4 2009 12,389 5.5 167.4 17,768 17.8 161.3 % change 03-06 06-09 21.1 23.7 1.2 21.8 21.7 2.6 23.5 (1.6) 23.7 23.8 (2.6) 15.7
26,080 7,491 10,851 13,383 15,962 18,808 22,482 27,513 35,132 48,488 96,014
29,966 8,815 12,823 15,762 18,392 21,803 25,969 31,870 40,380 54,992 109,900
40,239 11,447 16,738 20,196 23,804 28,077 33,698 41,487 51,577 70,526 162,162
14.9 17.7 18.2 17.8 15.2 15.9 15.5 15.8 14.9 13.4 14.5
34.3 29.9 30.5 28.1 29.4 28.8 29.8 30.2 27.7 28.2 47.6
58
8,437 10,853 15.8 28.6 12,036 15,428 17.2 28.2 14,691 18,959 16.6 29.0 17,655 22,014 18.3 24.7 20,636 25,742 17.1 24.7 24,396 30,804 17.1 26.3 30,492 38,205 19.6 25.3 39,128 50,389 19.2 28.8 56,671 70,904 21.0 25.1 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 117,978 169,999 3.2 44.1
II. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics In Region III, prices of food and all items rose faster that the average per capita income of families belonging to the 1st and 2nd decile classes!
Statistics/ Income decile class Food Threshold Subsistence Incidence (among fam ilies) Inflation (food) Poverty Threshold Poverty Incidence (among fam ilies) Inflation (all item s) Mean per capita income All incom e groups First decile class Second decile class Third decile class Fourth Decile class Fifth Decile class Sixth Decile class Seventh Decile class Eighth Decile class Ninth Decile class Tenth Decile Human Development Cluster Meeting class Region III 2003 8,902 2.3 107.9 12,771 9.4 111.3 2006 10,719 3.7 129.7 15,374 12.0 134.1 2009 13,308 3.7 159.7 18,981 12.0 158.8 % change 03-06 06-09 20.4 24.2 1.4 20.2 20.4 2.6 20.5 0.1 23.1 23.5 0.1 18.4
32,719 10,175 14,800 18,204 21,756 25,798 30,457 36,237 45,065 59,496 106,362
40,595
46,944
24.1
15.6
11,233 13,785 10.4 22.7 16,424 20,397 11.0 24.2 20,568 25,561 13.0 24.3 24,910 30,367 14.5 21.9 29,597 35,909 14.7 21.3 35,435 42,157 16.3 19.0 42,940 51,057 18.5 18.9 53,747 63,562 19.3 18.3 72,496 84,940 21.8 17.2 145,897 156,146 37.2 7.0 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
125.5
14,284 9.4
154.9
17,779 10.3
137.4
157.1
39,629 9,742 14,818 19,086 23,620 28,777 34,835 42,639 53,753 73,409 149,106
45,276 11,021 17,102 22,097 27,220 33,056 39,528 48,170 60,993 82,366 160,931
53,029 13,789 20,486 25,699 31,425 38,025 46,116 56,218 71,644 96,221 202,748
14.2 13.1 15.4 15.8 15.2 14.9 13.5 13.0 13.5 12.2 7.9
17.1 25.1 19.8 16.3 15.4 15.0 16.7 16.7 17.5 16.8 26.0
62
6,668 9,066 30.0 36.0 9,249 12,361 26.2 33.7 11,171 14,711 22.8 31.7 13,329 17,019 20.0 27.7 15,661 20,148 18.5 28.7 18,788 24,161 19.6 28.6 23,375 29,793 20.0 27.5 30,758 37,662 20.4 22.4 46,284 54,620 22.2 18.0 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 116,491 131,929 22.2 13.3
63
7,553 9,562 27.4 26.6 10,576 13,398 21.4 26.7 13,054 16,420 20.7 25.8 15,321 19,805 17.9 29.3 18,254 23,478 18.1 28.6 21,958 28,165 18.2 28.3 26,590 34,202 16.7 28.6 34,918 44,406 18.5 27.2 50,836 65,037 19.0 27.9 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 111,258 136,529 13.0 22.7
64
6,267 8,562 26.4 36.6 9,511 12,751 21.0 34.1 12,067 16,154 18.7 33.9 14,975 19,796 19.3 32.2 18,685 24,129 20.5 29.1 23,294 29,373 21.3 26.1 29,344 37,046 22.2 26.2 38,522 48,865 20.1 26.9 55,380 72,090 18.4 30.2 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 114,936 150,249 12.8 30.7
65
5,989 8,063 9.7 34.6 8,585 11,290 14.4 31.5 10,667 13,762 17.6 29.0 12,665 16,269 19.2 28.5 14,971 19,299 19.6 28.9 18,131 22,867 21.3 26.1 22,391 28,804 22.5 28.6 29,269 37,353 22.5 27.6 46,263 28.0 28.5 NATIONAL59,470 STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 112,835 165,382 12.8 46.6
66
4,772 6,799 41.8 42.5 7,315 9,689 39.5 32.5 9,554 12,255 43.3 28.3 11,663 14,792 35.7 26.8 14,099 17,952 33.5 27.3 17,316 22,072 32.0 27.5 22,427 27,793 33.3 23.9 31,532 36,319 39.7 15.2 48,067 55,331 34.1 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION 15.1 BOARD 111,832 141,819 25.6 26.8
67
5,953 7,619 26.1 28.0 8,719 11,267 23.3 29.2 10,996 14,295 22.1 30.0 13,667 17,368 23.7 27.1 16,770 20,855 25.2 24.4 20,387 25,949 26.7 27.3 26,449 33,162 30.5 25.4 37,104 44,265 33.6 19.3 54,973 28.7 19.5 NATIONAL65,677 STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 126,361 144,022 32.6 14.0
II. The 2009 Official Poverty Statistics In Region XI, the average per capita income of the bottom 30% of families rose faster than the prices of food and all items.
Statistics/ Income decile class Food Threshold Subsistence Incidence (among families) Inflation (food) Poverty Threshold Poverty Incidence (among families) Inflation (all items) Mean per capita income All income groups First decile class Second decile class Third decile class Fourth Decile class Fifth Decile class Sixth Decile class Seventh Decile class Eighth Decile class Human Development Cluster Meeting class Ninth Decile RAVirola/17 March 2011 Tenth Decile class Region XI 2003 7,493 12.3 109.0 10,737 25.4 112.8 23,846 5,383 8,132 10,539 12,857 15,728 19,076 23,434 30,154 42,165 100,919 2006 9,392 12.1 136.5 13,469 26.2 140.7 28,037 2009 11,879 11.0 173.3 17,040 25.6 167.0 35,835 % change 03-06 06-09 25.4 26.5 (0.2) 25.2 25.4 0.9 24.7 17.6 (1.1) 27.0 26.5 (0.6) 18.7 27.8
68
7,094 8,977 31.8 26.6 10,199 13,361 25.4 31.0 13,144 16,969 24.7 29.1 16,051 20,530 24.8 27.9 19,510 24,773 24.1 27.0 23,731 30,074 24.4 26.7 29,369 36,479 25.3 24.2 37,522 46,917 24.4 25.0 52,730 66,657 25.1 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION 26.4 BOARD 103,021 147,614 2.1 43.3
69
6,939 8,327 24.7 20.0 9,652 12,093 20.6 25.3 11,996 14,730 21.8 22.8 14,415 17,739 21.0 23.1 17,016 21,287 20.0 25.1 20,336 25,750 18.9 26.6 24,617 31,600 17.2 28.4 31,337 40,723 18.0 30.0 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 44,275 60,265 17.0 36.1 96,152 146,630 (22.1) 52.5
70
5,853 7,553 21.5 29.0 8,408 10,591 23.8 26.0 10,409 12,961 24.9 24.5 12,509 15,448 27.0 23.5 14,701 18,064 28.3 22.9 17,613 21,517 30.1 22.2 21,592 26,635 26.6 23.4 28,006 34,164 25.7 22.0 40,143 50,559 20.0 25.9 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 96,759 142,834 43.1 47.6
71
6,988 9,643 19.0 38.0 9,054 12,636 13.4 39.6 10,624 14,213 11.3 33.8 12,090 15,985 9.9 32.2 13,491 17,628 9.1 30.7 15,132 19,582 5.9 29.4 17,128 21,697 3.6 26.7 19,955 24,940 (0.8) 25.0 NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 24,768 31,429 (8.0) 26.9 53,019 63,054 (2.6) 18.9
2008
2009
Start of application for the Project on Nurses Assigned in Rural Service by the DOLE, DOH, and the Professional Regulation Commission, Board of Nursing (PRC-BON). The Project involved the training/deployment of unemployed registered nurses in Human Development Cluster Meeting 1,000 poorest cities/municipalities of the country. the NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 72 RAVirola/17 March 2011
February 2009
Some negative events between 2006 and 2009: Period 2006-2009 Event Rice price crisis: Price of ordinary rice increased by 44.2%, from PhP 21.28/kg in 2006 to PhP 30.69 in 2009 Global financial crisis Start of El Nio Start of the increase in alert level of Mayon Volcano
With the latest 2009 poverty estimates, the probability of halving poverty, between 1990 and 2015, has gone down but remains at medium!
Indicator Poverty incidence among population
Pace of Progress
Target 16.6
1991 33.1
2003
2006
2009
26.4 0.65
26.5 0.53
Notes: The pace of progress is computed as the ratio of the actual annual growth rate and required annual growth rate. High: Pace of Progress is greater than 0.9 Medium: Pace of Progress between 0.5 and 0.9 Low: Pace of Progress is less than 0.5
Annual reduction of 0.37 percentage points, between 1991-2009, from a baseline of 33.1
0.69 annually, between 19912015, from a baseline of 33.1 20.7 18.6 1.65 annually, between 20092015, from a 16.6 baseline of 26.5 Target poverty incidence
76
Target reduction in poor population Population Annual Cumulative 2010 1,598,224 25.05 2011 1,628,372 3,226,597 23.35 2012 1,658,671 4,885,268 21.65 2013 1,689,113 6,574,381 19.95 2014 1,719,689 8,294,071 18.25 Human Development Cluster Meeting NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 2015 1,750,410 10,044,481 16.55 RAVirola/17 March 2011
II. Highlights of the 2009 Official Poverty Statistics As of 2009, the Philippines was eight years behind target on poverty reduction! Only NCR, CAR, Regions II and IV-A are ahead of their targets!
10.0 5.0 5.0 0.5 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0
NC R CA R ion IV -A IV -B VI II es VI I n n n n pin g io n n gi o gi o ion gio gio g io n gio Re n XI I VI XI I II II V X I
3.2 0.5
-2.3 -8.4
-4.0
Re g
i li p
Re
gio
g io
gi o
Re g
Re
Re
Re
Re
Ph
Re
Notes: Time-distance (years): positive (+) time lead (progress is ahead the path to target) Negative ( - ) time lag (Progress is behind the path to target) The time distance is a new generic statistical measure for analysis and visualization of time series data. This was first developed by Prof. Pavle Sicherl of the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia.
77
Region IX, Caraga, and ARMM are 27, 21, and 81 years behind the target in 2009. Human Development Cluster Meeting NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD RAVirola/17 March 2011
Re
Re
Re
Lao PDR Myanmar Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Brunei Darussalam Singapore
78 RAVirola/17 March 2011
Human Development Cluster Meeting
Note: Brunei Darussalam is a regional member of ADB, but is not classified as a developing member country. Sources: Millennium Indicators Database Online (UNSD 2010), Pacific Regional Information System (SPC 2010), country sources. (http://www.adb.org/documents/books/key_indicators/2010/pdf/Key-Indicators-2010.pdf )
0.406
0.444
0.451
138
-0.2
20
20.9 21.1
21.03 19.3 19.1 18.7
Unemplo yment Rate
15
Underemplo yment Rate P o verty Incidence amo ng families
10
8.0 5
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.3
80
2007
2008
2009
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Minimum wage earner in Caraga employed in the agriculture and non-agriculture sector. Rate is effective 20 June 2008, per Wage order No. 9 (Source of data: http://www.nwpc.dole.gov.ph/pages/statistics/stat_wage%20rates1989-present_non-agri.html ) For this exercise, number of working days considered 81 RAVirola/17 March 2011 Gross family income was used.
Human Development Cluster Meeting
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Minimum wage earner in ARMM employed in the agriculture and non-agriculture sector. Rate is effective 29 June 2008, per Wage order No. 11 (Source of data: http://www.nwpc.dole.gov.ph/pages/statistics/stat_wage%20rates1989-present_non-agri.html )
1 2 3
4
5 6 7 8
5,052
6,315 7,578 8,841 10,104
6,240
6,240 6,240 6,240 6,240
5,590
5,590 5,590 5,590 5,590
Minimum wage earner in Region IX employed in the non-agriculture sector. Rate is effective 3 July 2008, per Wage order No. 15 (Source of data: http://www.nwpc.dole.gov.ph/pages/statistics/stat_wage%20rates1989-present_non-agri.html )
For this Cluster Meeting Human Developmentexercise, number of working days considered in a month is 26.
The increase in economic growth between 2006 and 2009 in Region IVB is well distributed across all income decile class. Poverty incidence decreased by 6.7% between 2006 and 2009.
Statistics/ Income decile class M ean per capita income A income groups ll First decile class Second decile class Third decile class Fourth Decile class Fifth Decile class Sixth Decile class Sev enth Decile class Eighth Decile class Ninth Decile class Tenth Decile class
Region IVB
2009
2006
21,631 6,049 8,755 10,536 12,665 15,192 18,255 22,172 27,861 39,545 89,490
29,727 8,488 12,342 14,969 17,588 20,823 24,924 30,386 39,161 55,363 123,781
40.3 41.0 42.1 38.9 37.1 36.5 37.0 40.6 40.0 38.3
Region IV-B
Region V Region VI Region VII Region VIII Region IX Region X Region XI
14.0
21.1 18.9 13.0 8.5 16.9 16.7 16.4
(6.7)
(0.1) 1.7 (3.2) 2.1 2.4 0.2 (0.6)
Region XII
Caraga ARMM
13.0
9.9 13.9
1.0
3.0 1.7
In contrast, in Region XII, the %change 2006 2009 06-09 increase in M ean per capita income economic A income groups ll 24,281 32,975 35.8 growth is First decile class 6,939 8,327 20.0 concentrated Second decile class 9,652 12,093 25.3 in the upper Third decile class 11,996 14,730 22.8 Fourth Decile class 14,415 17,739 23.1 income decile Fifth Decile class 17,016 21,287 25.1 classes. Sixth Decile class 20,336 25,750 26.6 Poverty Sev enth Decile class 24,617 31,600 28.4 Eighth Decile class 31,337 40,723 30.0 incidence also Ninth Decile class 44,275 60,265 36.1 increased by Tenth Decile class 96,152 146,630 52.5 1.0% between NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD 2009. 2006 and
Statistics/ Income decile class
Region XII
Family Size
Required Monthly Family Income 1,650 3,300 4,950 6,601 8,251 9,901 11,551 13,209
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
______%
Poor 5.99
Non-Poor 4.38
III. Some Policy/Program Implication 10 provinces from the Least Poor Cluster have higher primary cohort survival rate than the provinces in the Bottom Poor Cluster except for Lanao del Norte!
Poverty Incidence and Primary Cohort Survival Rate Province
Bulacan Pampanga 1st District Laguna Bataan Lanao del Norte 2nd District Nueva Vizcaya Cavite Benguet Rizal Eastern Samar Ilocos Norte Surigao Del Norte
Contd Province
Camarines Sur Agusan del Sur 3rd District 4th District Northern Samar Sulu Batanes Zamboanga del Norte Maguindanao Bohol Romblon Saranggani Zamboanga Sibugay Davao Oriental
Poverty Incidence
4.8 6.7 3.8 5.9 7.4 39.0 2.4 6.7 4.5 4.0 6.5 45.8 9.2 47.9
Poverty Incidence
38.7 51.2 3.8 1.6 41.7 39.3 0.0 52.9 44.6 41.0 43.0 40.7 43.2 42.5
III. Some Policy/Program Implication 10 provinces from the Least Poor Cluster have higher Primary Completion Rate than the provinces in the Bottom Poor Cluster except for Lanao del Norte!
Poverty Incidence and Primary Completion Rate Province
Bulacan Pampanga Laguna 1st District Bataan Lanao del Norte 2nd District Nueva Vizcaya Cavite Benguet Rizal Eastern Samar Ilocos Norte Camarines Sur
Contd Province
Masbate Agusan del Sur 3rd District 4th District Batanes Northern Samar Zamboanga del Norte Sulu Maguindanao Bohol Saranggani Zamboanga Sibugay Romblon Davao Oriental
Poverty Incidence
4.8 6.7 5.9 3.8 7.4 39.0 2.4 6.7 4.5 4.0 6.5 45.8 9.2 38.7
Completion Rate
93.0 88.5 87.6 85.9 78.5 74.3 73.8 72.8 72.3 71.1 70.5 68.7 67.0 66.3 65.8
Poverty Incidence
42.5 51.2 3.8 1.6 0.0 41.7 52.9 39.3 44.6 41.0 40.7 43.2 43.0 42.5
Completion Rate
65.7 64.8 60.0 59.8 58.5 58.4 57.2 57.2 56.2 54.7 52.1 46.1 46.0 29.4
Greater collaboration between the DSWD and NSCB on the: Maximization of the wealth of information on poverty indicators from the NHTSPR, which could be utilized by the Philippine Statistical System, to provide a more holistic picture of the poverty situation in the country.
DSWD can consider the food threshold as possible reference to compute for standard per capita costs of food requirements in DSWD (day care/children) centers but food threshold must be recomputed for children. (Note: As pointed out by a DSWD representative during the NSCB presentation to the DSWD Technical Staff on the 2009 Poverty Statistics last 8 March 2011.)
1 2 3* 4* 5*
Note: 1) 4Ps provides conditional cash grants to beneficiaries with: a) b) PhP 500.00/month per household for health and nutrition expenses PhP 300/month per child for educational expenses
2) Assume that all cash grant beneficiaries complied in the given conditions a) Pregnant women must avail of pre- and post-natal care and be attended during childbirth by a trained health professional: b) Parents must attend family development sessions; c) 0-5 year old children must receive regular preventive health check-ups and vaccines and 6-14 yr. Old children must receive deworming pills twice a year;
Release of the food and poverty thresholds for 2010 and 2011 and
advance estimates for 2012
Note: * The NSCB wanted to update the city/municipal level estimates of poverty for 2009; however, datafile of the 2010 Census of Population and Housing (CPH) will only be available two years from now (per info provided by NSO Technical Staff).
Effect of earthquake/tsunami in Japan La Nia phenomenon Threat to earthquake/other natural calamities/climate change in the Philippines with the poor at a greater risk to: Landslide One meter rise in sea level
I. Introduction Who are the members of the Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics (TC PovStat)?
The Committee is composed of professionals/experts who have undertaken significant studies on poverty. Membership in the committee is based on individual expertise and not on representation by agency/institution.
Chairpersons of the Four Small Working Groups: Dr. Lisa Grace S. Bersales
UP School of Statistics
I. Introduction Who are the members of the Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics (TC PovStat)? Members: Dir. Erlinda M. Capones Usec. Alicia R. Bala
Dept. of Social Welfare and Devt.
I. Introduction
SOME DEFINITIONS
The NSCB releases incidences and magnitude of the poor within two months after the provision of the FIES public use file (PUF) by the NSO
Note: PUF on the final results of the 2009 Family Income and Expenditure Survey was provided by the NSO to the NSCB on 10 January 2011. Poverty statistics were released February 8, 2011
I. Introduction
WHY THE NEED TO REFINE THE METHODOLOGY? HAS THE DEFINITION OF POVERTY CHANGED?
1. The UN Statistical Commission prescribes international standards and guidelines on statistical measurement and practices These standards guide official statisticians They are based on recommendations of Expert Groups/Friends of the Chair/City Groups organized by international organizations like the UNSD/ILO/FAO/World Bank/EU/OECD/IMF These standards/guidelines change/evolve But there is no international standard on measuring poverty.
Human Development Cluster Meeting
I. Introduction
WHY THE NEED TO REFINE THE METHODOLOGY? HAS THE DEFINITION OF POVERTY CHANGED?
2. It is standard practice among official statisticians all over the world to refine and update definitions, methodologies and statistical frameworks to better reflect current phenomena. Availability criterion on Unemployment (13th ICLS, 1982) Effect: Reduces Unemployment
Capitalization of Expenditures on R & D and Mineral Exploration (1993 SNA) Effect: Increases GDP
Transfer of Monetization of Gold to Financial Accounts from Exports (1993 SNA) Effect: Decreases GDP
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
I. Introduction
WHY THE NEED TO REFINE THE METHODOLOGY? HAS THE DEFINITION OF POVERTY CHANGED?
3. Refinements in poverty methodology are not meant to change the definition of poverty; they are meant to provide better measures of poverty
4. To address some issues/concerns raised on the Official Poverty Estimation Methodology Issues on the estimation of the food threshold, poverty threshold, incidence and other measures of poverty Income-based or Expenditure-based Direct or Indirect Estimation of NonFood Threshold Constant or Changing FE/TBE ratio Could be underestimating poverty in poor areas; overestimating poverty in nonpoor areas
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
I. Introduction
WHY THE NEED TO REFINE THE METHODOLOGY? HAS THE DEFINITION OF POVERTY CHANGED? 4. To address some issues/concerns raised on the Official Poverty Estimation Methodology Improvement of the relevance of official poverty statistics Regional or Provincial disaggregation
Issues on the comparability of poverty estimates across space and over time
I. Introduction
WHY THE NEED TO REVISE THE EXISTING METHODOLOGY? 5. Instruction of the NSCB Executive Board The NSCB Executive Board, in its meeting on 6 November 2002, instructed the NSCB Technical Staff to undertake a phased revision of the official provincial poverty estimation methodology.
The 1st Phase was undertaken in the development of the existing official estimation methodology, approved per NSCB Resolution No. 1, Series of 2003.
Visualizable
Low cost
Actual Prices
Farmgate Price
Retail Price
FOOD THRESHOLD
POVERTY THRESHOLD
- Started in 2008 - Took off from the outputs of the Documentation Project - Undertaken thru the creation of 4 Small Working Groups (SWGs) - recommendations were finalized based on recommendation of TC PovStat - The Committee intended to refine methodology at the start of new administration to avoid any misconception on the objectives.
Activities 3. Consultative Forum on the Proposed refinements on the Official Poverty Estimation Methodology
Output -Documentation of the methodology - Reviewed/documented findings of various papers that discussed the issues being raised on the methodology.
- The Board was updated in its 5 meetings in 2009 and 2010 on the Committees plan on the 2009 official poverty statistics
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Remarks/Considerations No change
Low-cost
-Least cost food bundle for the province as it passed the Test of Revealed Preference
II. ESTIMATION OF THE POVERTY THRESHOLD a. FE/TBE ratio -Use the average FE/TBE ratio for 2000, 2003, 2006 and 2009 - To ensure that the parameters are fairly stable since FE/TBE ratios do not change dramatically over time -To ensure consistency over time for at least two administrations -To ensure consistency across space -The use of a constant FE/TBE ratio has been suggested by the NSCB Technical Staff since 2003.
Note: Ranges of FE/TBE ratios 2000 0.55958 to 0.80848 2003 0.42498 to 0.79094 2006 0.50892 to 0.75945
-Where the FE/TBE ratio for each FIES year is nationally determined
Ranges of Provincial FE/TBE Ratios Based on the 2003 Methodology Year 2000 2003 2006 Urban Minimum
0.55958
(Benguet)
Rural Minimum
0.60264
(Lanao del Sur)
Maximum
0.77514
(Biliran)
Maximum
0.80848
(Eastern Samar)
0.42498
(Ifugao)
0.79094
(Camiguin)
0.62348
(Batangas)
0.76892
(Zambales)
0.50892
(Ifugao)
0.74921
(Antique)
0.58883
(Batangas)
0.75945
(Bukidnon)
Viands Rural
Boiled Rice Coffee-Adults Milk-Children Bulanglang Banana Boiled Rice Fried Dalagang Bukid Munggo Guisado w/ malunggay leaves and pork liver Boiled Rice
Major sources of Protein in Region IIIs food bundle is Galunggong/Dalagang Bukid. Other source of protein available in the region is Tilapia. 2009 Prices in Bataan (Based on BAS and NSO data): Galunggong= PhP 90.05 Dalagang Bukid= PhP 105.42 Tilapia = PhP 81.53
2009 prices of:
Fried Galunggong
Munggo Guisado w/ small shrimps and malunggay leaves Boiled Rice Ripe Mangoes
Snack
Pandesal Margarine
For purposes of poverty monitoring, is it correct to use as a yardstick a higherpriced commodity/food item as compared to a lower one, which will also give the same nutritional requirement?
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Issue: Comparability over time : Example, 1st District of NCR (Manila City)
Using the old 2003 methodology Using the refined 2011 methodology
2009
0.605
0.395
2009
0.698
0.302
2006
0.566
0.434
2006
0.698
0.302
2003
0.579
0.421
2003
1.0
0.698
0.302
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
8.7 8.5
8.7
8.2 8.3
21 20.7
21.1 20.9
20.3 20.2
8.2
8 7.8 7.5
7.9
7.5
20
20
50 40 30 20 10 0
Province
2006 Confidence Intervals of the Poverty incidence Among Provinces in the Bottom Cluster
70 60
Po verty In cid en ce
50 40 30 20 10 0
Province
50 40 30 20 10 0
Zamboanga del Norte Eastern Samar Romblon Northern Samar Sulu M isamis Occidental Apayao Camarines Norte
Province