Jaiprakash Associates.190.147.205 PDF

JaiprakashAssociates
Thewheeloffortune
AashieshAgarwaal,CFA
+912240635491
aashiesh.agarwaal@edelcap.com
hi h
l@ d l
O b 2012
October2012
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InvestmentRationale
Stockpresents78% upsidefromCMP:TheJaiprakashAssociates(JPA)stockpresents78% upside

againstCMPofINR82/share,poweredbyearningsgrowth;assuminganEV/EBITDAmultiplecloseto
5yearlow
EVtosurgeto~INR855bninFY14Efrom~INR721bninFY13E
EBITDAsurges99%toINR107bninFY15EfromINR54bninFY12 drivenbypowerandcement
DebttopeakinFY13/14asmostoftheplannedcapexhasbeencommissioned
WeestimateJPAtogenerateINR290bnfromitsoperationsoverFY1315Ebroadlysplit
We estimate JPA to generate INR290bn from its operations over FY13 15Ebroadly split
amongrealestate,cementandpowerassetsagainstinterestobligationsofINR157bn
oversameperiod
Equityvaluejumpsto~INR304bnfromINR171bn,a78%increase
EV/EBITDAassumedatnear5yearlowforourtargetprice!
Scaleduptooneofthelargestinfrastructureplayersinitskeysegments:JPAhasemergedasthe
thirdlargestcementmanufacturer,largestrealestatedeveloper,largestprivatehydropower
generation company operator of IndiasslongestexpresswayandtheonlyownerofF1sportstrackin
generationcompany,operatorofIndia
longest expressway and the only owner of F1 sports track in
thecountry
Proventrackrecordofstrongexecutioncapabilityandontimedelivery:JPAhasaprovenexecution
recordofdevelopingworldclassassetswithcommendabletimelinessgiventheoperating
environment
i
t
Additionaltriggers:
Debtreduction:Thecompanyhasguidedtoassetsales/debtreductionofINR100bnoverthenext6
y
yp g
12months.Wehavenotassumedanyoftheseinourestimates.Anyprogressonthisfrontwillbean
additionaltriggerforthestock

Strongupside

Stockpresentsrobustupside
Thestockistradingathistoricallylowvaluationmultiplesdrivenbyweakdebtservicingmetrics
EBITDAtocatapult38%overFY13E15Edrivenbycementandpowerbusinesses,whichwill driveEV
expansionoverforecastperiod
Atcurrenttroughvaluationmultiples,thestockpresents78%upsidefromCMP
Improvementindebtservicingmetricsduetooperationalisationofassetstodrivereratingof
multiples,whichwillprovidefurtherupsides
FY1315E:Whatfutureholds
FY0812:Storysofar
Debt
stable
Debt
increases
Execution
concerns
heightenrisk
perception
Mcap
crashed
EBITDArise
slower
Execution
concerns
abate
Stock
performance
EBITDA
surging
EV/EBITDA
stableto
risingg
EV/EBITDA
declines

Stocktradingathistoricallylowvaluationmultiples
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDArange
45.0
32.0
36.0
(EV/EBITDA
A)
40.0
2 0
24.0
(%)
27.0
16.0
18.0
8.0
9.0
P/CEPS
7 8
8 9
9 10
10 11
3yeardistribution
11 12
12+
5yeardistribution
P/CEPSrange
84
19.2
68
16.0
12.8
52
(%
%)
(P/CEEPS)
0.0
Aug12
Apr12
Dec11
Apr11
Aug11
Dec10
Aug10
Apr10
Dec09
Aug09
Apr09
Dec08
Apr08
Aug08
Dec07
Aug07
Apr07
0.0
35
96
9.6
6.4
19
3.2
Aug12
2
Apr12
2
Dec11
1
Aug11
1
Apr11
1
Dec10
0
Aug10
0
Apr10
0
Dec09
9
Aug09
9
Apr09
9
Dec08
8
Aug08
8
Apr08
8
Dec07
7
Aug07
7
Apr07
7
0.0
6 7
7 8
8 9
3yeardistribution
9 10
10 11 11 12
12+
5yeardistribution
Source:Bloomberg,Edelweissresearch
EBITDAtosurge38%overFY13E15Edrivenbycementandpowerbusinesses,whichwilldriveEV
expansionoverforecastperiodatconstantvaluationmultiples

EBITDAtocatapult38%overFY13E15E
EV/EBITDA
120,000
25.0
96,000
20.0
(EV/EBITDA
A)
(INRmn)
EBITDA
72 000
72,000
48,000
24,000
15 0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
MCAPrisesasDebtstabilizes
EnterpriseValue
800,000
480,000
600,000
360,000
Mcapsurge
drivenby
strong
earnings
earnings
growth
(INRm
mn)
600 000
600,000
(INRmn)
1 000 000
1,000,000
240,000
400,000
120,000
200,000
0
0
0
FY 08 FY
FY08
FY09
09 FY10
FY 10 FY11
FY 11 FY12
FY 12 FY13E
FY 13E FY14E
FY 14E FY15E
FY 15E
MCAP
NetDebt
HeadwindsturnintotailwindsasmostplannedcapexgetscommissionedandEBITDAexpands
Headwinds turn into tailwinds as most planned capex gets commissioned and EBITDA expands
6

Valuationsummary:Earningsbased
Sales
Salesgrowth(%)
EBITDA
EBITDAgrowth
PBT
PAT
PATgrowth
EPS
EPSgrowth
CEPS
CEPSgrowth
BVPS
BVPSgrowth
NetDebt
MCAP
EV
EV/EBITDA
Particulars
EBITDA
EV/EBITDA(x)
EV
Debt
Less:FCCBconversion
NetDebt
MCAP(A)
no.ofshares*
Add:FCCBconversion
Totalno.ofshares(B)
TargetPrice(A/B)
Source:Edelweissresearch
FY10
65,256
21,917
20,127
11,192
5.3
7
40.0
267,859
317,737
3
3
585,596
12.4
FY11
112,593
72.5
47,397
116.3
25,891
13,823
23.5
6.5
23.4
9.5
27.4
50.7
26.6
376,264
197,333
9 333
573,597
10.7
FY12
147,732
31.2
53,645
13.2
16,260
6,329
(54.2)
3.0
(54.2)
7.5
(21.9)
54.0
6.5
503,137
173,730
3 30
676,866
8.7
FY13E
205,984
39.4
77,532
44.5
8,704
558
(91.2)
0.3
(91.2)
7.7
2.9
52.6
(2.6)
557,865
171,286
286
729,150
8.0
FY14E
FY15E
245,027 285,427
19.0 16.5
91,087 106,927
17.5 17.4
21,799 38,956
9,707 19,433
1,639.5 100.2
4.6 9.1
1,639.5 100.2
13.4 20.3
74.5 51.7
54.8 59.8
4.3 9.1
558,650 549,787
171,286
286 171,286
286
729,935 721,072
6.8
FY14E
106,927
8
855,420
558,650
(8,025)
550,625
304,794
1,970
108
2,077
147
*extreasuryshares
7

Valuationsummary:SOTP
SEGMENT
Valuationrationale
Standalone
Cement
8xEV/EBITDAmultipletoFY15earnings
Construction
RealEstate
Hospitality
WindPower
JaypeeInfratech
FY14EEV/EBITDAof5x
JaypeeGreensrealestateNPV
Hotelsat6xFY13EEV/EBITDA
Atcapitalemployed
TotalstandaloneEV
FY14Enetdebt
TargetstandaloneequityValue
Realestate
BOTYamunaExpressway
TollingrightsNoidaGreaterNoidaEspressway
EV/EBITDA
/
(x)
( )
(x)
INRmn
25,740.0
EV
205,920
9758
2,796.8
JAL'sstakeinJaypeeInfratech
Holdingcompanydisount
JaypeeInfratechforJAL
JaiprakashPowerVenturesLtd
JaypeeSouthandWestCementCapacities
Cement
TotalEquityValueofJPVL
JAL'sstakeinJPVL
JPVLvalueforJAL
9.8mtpaatreplacementcostatUSD110/t
10
Less:Debt
Equityvalue
JCCLvalueforJAL
JaypeeSportsCity,Gr.Noida
JaypeeHimalayanExpressway
JPSIstake
g
p y
JPSIvalueforJAL
BookValue
JAL'sstakeinJHL
JHLforJAL
TOTALJALEQUITYVALUE
110
48,789
20,755
16,781
21,637
313,882
145,815
168,068
101,501
1,577
(1,032)
83.10%
20%
67,841
Equityvalue
89,087
78.2%
20%
55,749
56,056
35,000
,
21,056
20%
16,845
5,828
91%
20%
4,220
2,345
100%
20%
1,876
297,752
Source:Edelweissresearch
INR//
share
53
13
5
4
6
81
33
27
1
151

Improvementindebtservicemetricstodrivererating
BetweenFY08andFY12,JPAsnetdebtrosesharplywhileEBITDAlagged
EV/EBITDAandnetdebt/EBITDAdepictaninverserelationship
Goingg forward,weexpectdebttoremainstableasmostoftheassetshavebeencommissioned
,
p
EBITDA likelytosurge38%,helpingnetdebt/EBITDAcorrectsharply
Strongercashflowsandabatedexecutionconcernscanpotentiallydrivererating
Our target does not take into accountanypotentialofre

Ourtargetdoesnottakeinto
account any potential of rerating
rating
72,000
15.0
240,000
48,000
120,000
24,000
NetDebt
EBITDA(RHS)
8.4
EV/EBITDA
/
FY15E
0.0
FY14E
0.0
FY13E
2.8
FY12
5.0
FY11
5.6
FY10
10.0
FY09
FY08
FY11
(EV
V/EBITDA)
360,000
(IN
NRmn)
11.2
FY15E
20.0
FY14E
96,000
FY13E
480,000
FY12
14.0
FY10
25.0
FY09
120,000
(De bt/EBITDA)
PossiblereratingofEV/EBITDAasdebt/EBITDAdeclines
600,000
FY08
((INRmn)
EBITDAanddebt:Ataleoftwohalves
Debt/EBITDA
/
Sensitivity analysis indicates comfortable cushion

Sensitivityanalysisindicatescomfortablecushion
9

Sensitivityanalysis:Favourableriskreward
OurscenarioanalysisindicatesavaluationrangeofINR70186 basedon:
7%variationinEBITDAdrivenbyvariationincementvolumes/margins
Cementvolumesrangeof2632tonnesand20%variationinEBTIDA/tonne
Cement volumes range of 2632 tonnes and 20% variation in EBTIDA/tonne
EV/EBITDArangeof7.48x
NetdebtovershootingourestimatebyINR100bn
AtCMP,downsideis15%whileupsideis125%,indicatingriskrewardinfavour
147
99,447
103,187
103 187
106,927
111,987
117,047
7.4
90
104
117
135
153
EV/EBITDAmultiple
8.0 9.0
118 166
132 182
147 198
166 220
186 242
10.0
214
232
250
274
298
11.0
262
281
301
328
355
SensitivityofpricetovariationinDebtlevels(constantEV/EBITDA)
EBITTDA
SensitivityoftargetpricetoEBITDAandEV/EBITDA
EBITTDA
147
99,447
103,187
103 187
106,927
111,987
117,047
650,625
70
84
99
118
138
NetDebt
600,625 550,625
94 118
108 132
123 147
142 166
162 186
500,625
142
156
171
190
210
450,625
166
180
195
214
234
10

EBITDAsettosurge

EBITDAtocatapult
EBITDAislikelytosurge99%betweenFY12andFY15E,26%CAGR
Diversifiedearningsstream;nodivisioncontributesmorethan40%toEBITDA
Karcham Wangtoo and new cement capacities will add to EBITDA in FY13/FY14
KarchamWangtooandnewcementcapacitieswilladdtoEBITDAinFY13/FY14
Bina/NigriethermalpowerplantswilladdtoEBITDAinFY15
Realestateremainsasteadycontributor
EBITDAsurgeledbyhydropower,realestateandcement
120,000
(IN
NRmn)
96,000
72,000
48,000
24,000
0
FY08
HydroPower
FY09
FY10
ThermalPower
FY11
FY12
RealEstate
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
FY15E
others
Source:Company,Edelweissresearch
Assets well positioned to post strong earnings growth

Assetswellpositionedtopoststrongearningsgrowth
12

Wellpositionedassets
Assetwisefeatures
Cement
Realestate
Hydropower
Thermalpower
Third largest player in India

ThirdlargestplayerinIndia
Largest land bank inNCRamongst

Largestland
in NCR amongst
allreal estateplayers
1 700 MW of operational hydro

1,700MWofoperational
hydro
powerassets
500MWoperationalwith
500
MW operational with
additional3300MWundervarious
stagesofconstruction
Establishedbrandandcredentials
sold68msfandcollectedINR78bn
overpast3years,morethanany
otherinthecountry
Designenergyof7600 MWin50%
dependableyear
VolumeCAGRat33%for thepast5
years,leadingtheindustry
Emerged asapanIndiaplayerwith
commissioningofSouthcapacities
EBITDAofINR72bnoverFY1315E
CashgenerationofINR74bnover
FY1315E
FY13
15E
632msfofdevelopableareastillin
inventory
AssuredRoEprojectswith
incentivesforhigherplant
availability/secondarygeneration
Plantavailabilityhistoricallyat99%
Balancelandparcelsalongthehigh
Balance
land parcels along the high
growthcorridorofthenewly
commencedYamunaExpressway
andlargelypartoftheJaypee
SportsCity
EBITDA f INR 103 b
EBITDAofINR103bnoverFY13
FY13
15E
Generationwelloverthedesign
capacityhistorically
Overall74%tobesoldunderPPA
with26%tobesoldonmerchant
basis
OperatingcashgenerationofINR
26 bn between FY13E and FY15E
26bnbetweenFY13EandFY15E
OperatingcashgenerationofINR
114 bnbetweenFY16EandFY18E
C h
ti
f INR 54b
FY1315E
FY1315E
13

Debttostabilise

Debttostabilise
OperationalcashflowsofINR290bnoverFY1315E
CapexofINR176bnoverFY1315E
Yamuna Expressway, 250 MW Bina unit 1, 5 MTPA cement plant in Balaji was commissioned in H1FY13
YamunaExpressway,250MWBinaunit1,5MTPAcementplantinBalajiwascommissionedinH1FY13
250Binaunit2,2.6MTPAcementgrindingplant,1,320MWNigrieTPPtobecommissionedinH2FY13
FY15E
1,980MWBaraTPPtobecommissionedinFY16E
InterestpaymentofINR157bn
DebttostabiliseFY13onwards
600,000
480,000
(INRmn)
360,000
240,000
120 000
120,000
0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
Source: Company, Edelweiss research

15

FY12H1FY13:Mostplannedcapexcommissioned
1,000MWKarchamWangtooHEP
Fomula1racingtrack
214km power transmission line between Abdullapur and existing Baspa Jhakri doublecircuitlink
214kmpowertransmissionlinebetweenAbdullapurandexistingBaspa
double circuit link
Enhancedcementcapacity3.3xoverpast5years
INR133bn165km6laneaccesscontrolledYamunaExpressway
500MWBinathermalpowerproject
ProjectscommissionedinFY12/FY13
Project
KarchamWangtoohydroelectricplant
Binathermalpwerplant
Jaypeepowergrid
YamunaExpressway
Formula1racetrack
Balajicementplant
B
l ji
t l t
GrindingunitsBokaro,Baga,Bhilai,
Sikandarabad
Size
Completion
1000MW
H1FY13
500MW
Q2FY13/Q3FY13
214kmtransmissionproject
Q4FY12
165km6laneconcreteexpressway
Q2FY13
5.14kmtrackwithaninitialseating
Q3FY12
capacityof110,000
5 MTPA
5MTPA
Q1FY13
6.3MTPA
Q1FY13
Cost(INRbn)
69
32.4
10
133
17
38.5
38
5
18.9
318.8
Financially closed projects Nigrie Bara to drive balance capex overFY1315

FinanciallyclosedprojectsNigrie,Baratodrivebalancecapex
over FY13 15
16

JPAtostartgeneratingcashFY14onwards
Operating cash flows to expand
Operatingcashflowstoexpand
Capex reduces as assets get commissioned

Capexreducesasassetsgetcommissioned
84,000
128,000
56,000
96,000
(INRmn)
160,000
(INRmn)
112,000
28,000
32,000
0
(28,000)
0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
Interestpaymentsremainstable
60 000
60,000
600,000
48,000
480,000
36,000
360,000
24,000
240,000
12,000
120,000
0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
Debtlevelsstabilize
(INRmn)
(INRm
mn)
64,000
FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E
EstimatedtogenerateINR290bnoperatingcashbetweenFY13andFY15drivenbyhydropower,real
estateandcement

17
Hydropower,cement,realestatetodrivecashflows
CementtocontributeINR74bnoverFY1315E
ThermalpowertocontributeINR26bnoverFY1315E
Hydro power to contribute INR53bn over FY13 15E

HydropowertocontributeINR53bnoverFY1315E
RealestatetocontributeINR67bnoverFY1315E
Assetswellpositionedtogeneraterobustcashflows
25 000
25,000
25 000
25,000
Hydropower
(INRmn)
(INRmn)
15,000
10,000
,
10,000
0
FY12
30,000
FY13E
FY14E
FY12
FY15E
24,000
24,000
18,000
18,000
12,000
FY14E
FY15E
Cement
12,000
6,000
6,000
0
FY13E
30,000
RealEstate
(INRm
mn)
(INR
Rmn)
15,000
5,000
5,000
0
Thermalpower
20,000
20,000
0
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
18

Scaleduptooneofthelargestinfrastructureplayersinkeysegments

Scaleduptooneofthelargestplayersinkeysegments
OwneroperatorofIndiaslongestexpressway
Project
YamunaExpressway
WesternPeripheralExpressway
EasternPeripheralExpressway
AhmedabadVadodaraExpressway
h d b d d d
MumbaiPuneExpressway
DelhiGurgaonExpressway
DelhiNoidaDirectFlyway
Length(km)
165
136
135
95
93
28
9
Currentownership
JaypeeInfratech
DSConstructionApolloEnterprises
Proposed
IRBInfra
f
IRBInfra
DSConstruction
NoidaTollBridgeCompany
Yearofcompletion
completedin2012
UnderDevelopment
Proposed
Initial2004,CurrentUpgradtionFY16E
ii l
di
completedin2002
completedin2008
completedin2001
Largestrealestateareasoldinthepast3years
40.0
Largestprivateproducerofhydropowerinthecountry
(msf)
32.0
24.0
16.0
8.0
0.0
JPA
FY10
DLF
GPL
Unitech Prestige Sobha
FY11
FY12
Project
JaiprakashPowerVentures
TataPowerCompany
LNJBhilwara
Bhandardhara
Total
700
AmbujaACC
Ultratech
JaiprakashAssociates
I di C
IndiaCements
t
ShreeCements
(msf)
420
280
FY12Generation
Program
Actual
4,225 6,093
1,450 1,531
1,236 1,065
58 117
6,969 8,806
3rd largestcementcapacityinthecountry
L
Largestlandbankinthecountry
l db ki h
560
MW
1,700
447
378
34
2,559
FY08/
CY07
44.8
18.2
9.0
8.8
88
9.0
FY09/
CY08
41.1
21.9
13.5
13.0
13 0
10.0
FY10/
CY09
48.2
23.5
22.8
14.1
14 1
10.2
FY11/
CY10
55.0
48.8
26.2
14.1
14 1
13.5
FY12/
CY11
57.0
48.8
28.3
14.1
14 1
13.5
140
0
JPA
DLF
GPL
Prestige
Sobha
Rapidattainmentofscaleatestimonytorobust
ap d atta
e t o sca e a test o y to obust
executioncapability

20
Proventrackrecordofstrongexecutioncapability
Indicativelistofprojects
Project
Characteristics
SardarSarovarDam:
Largestconcretedamin
I di
India
TehriDam:Largest
rockfilldaminIndia
1.2kmlongconcretegravitydam
Aproposedfinalheightof163magainst
t h i ht f 121 9
currentheightof121.9m
Itsconstructionrequiredpouringofabout7
mncubicmetresofchilledconcrete
Itisexpectedtosupplywaterforirrigationto
1.84mnhaacross15districtsand73suburbs
Itisalsoexpectedtosupplydrinkingwaterto
29
29mninhabitantsacross131townsand9,633
i h bi
131
d 9 633
villagesinGujarat
TehriDamisthethirdtallestrockfilldaminthe
worldandthelargestinAsia
Client
Scope of work
SSNN, Gujarat
Maindamandpowerhouse
THDC,Uttranchal
Rockfill damandspillways
NathpaJhakri:Largest
underground
powerhouseinIndia
A1,500MWpowerhouseisthelargest
undergroundpowerhouseinIndia
SJVNL,HimachalPradesh
Powerhouseandpenstocks
YamunaExpressway:
Indiaslongest6lane
accesscontrolled
concreteexpressway
Powerhouseandpenstocks
JPIN,UttarPradesh
JPAs83.1%subsidiary JPINis
ownerandJPAistheEPCcontractor
21

Timelinesscommendableinoperatingenvironment
Tracking delivery v/s guidance
Trackingdeliveryv/sguidance
Powerprojects
KarchamWangtoo
Bina
Nigrie
May09 Aug09 Nov09 Mar10 Sep10 Feb11 May11 Nov11

2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
Kannur
Bara
NM
2014
NM
2014
NM
2014
NM
2014
2013
2014
NM
2014
NM
2014
Karchana
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
LowerSiang
Hirong
KynshiStageII
UmngotStageI
2015
2015
2016
2016
2015
2018
2018
2018
2015
2018
2018
2018
2017
2018
2018
2018
2016
2018
2019
2019
2016
2018
2019
2019
2016
2018
2019
2019
Cement
Capacitytarget
2008
2009
2010
20
2011
2012
Jan12 Jun12 Aug12 Comments

2011
2011
2011 CommissionedinSep2011
2012
2012
2012 CommissionedinJune2012
2013
2013
2013 Maintainingguidanceof2013
commissioning
i i i
NM
NM
NM
NM
2014
2014
2014
2014 Maintainingguidanceof2014
commissioning
2014
2014
2016
2016 Suspendedduetoland
acquisition issues
acquisitionissues
2016
2016
2017
2017 Underplanning
2018
2018
2019
2019 Underplanning
2019
2019
2019
2019 Underplanning
2019
2019
2020
2020 Underplanning
May09 Aug09 Nov09 Mar10 Sep10 Feb11 May11 Nov11
Jan12 Jun12 Aug12
9.0
13.5
24.3
26 8
26.8
9.0
13.5
22.8
29
29.7
9.0
13.5
22.8
29
29.7
9.0
13.5
22.8
3
31.5
9.0
13.5
22.8
33 6
33.6
9.0
13.5
22.8
26 2
26.2
9.0
13.5
22.8
26 2
26.2
9.0
13.5
22.8
26 2
26.2
9.0
13.5
22.8
26 2
26.2
9.0
13.5
22.8
26 2
26.2
33.5
33.5
35.5
33.6
37.6
35.9
35.9
35.9
35.9
28.3
2013
35.9
9.0
13.5
22.8 Achieved22.8MTPAcapacity
26 2 Achieved26.2MTPAcapacity
26.2
hi d 26 2
i
inFeb2011
28.3 Achieved33.6MTPAcapacity
inJune2012
35.9
S
C
Ed l i
h
OtherkeyprojectscommissionedYamunaExpresswaywitha10monthdelay,duetofarmerviolence
inthevicinity
Formula1racetrackdeliveredontimeforIndiasmaidenF1race

22
Annexures

Debtprofile(consolidated)
Debtrepaymentof~INR252bnandinterestof~INR166bndueduringFY1315E
Debt
JPAstandalone
JaypeeInfratech
JPVL
others
Total
Interest
JPAstandalone
JaypeeInfratech
JPVL
others
Total
Bookvalue
210,387
,
71,096
174,173
76,086
531,743
FY13E
53,255
,
4,561
24,411
10,869
93,096
Annualrepaymentshedule
FY14E
FY15E
36,609
,
41,650
,
4,561 4,561
16,260 33,311
10,869 10,869
68,299 90,391
FY13E15E
131,514
,
13,683
73,981
32,608
251,787
22,391
8,015
17,947
8,478
56,832
22,879
7,488
18,843
7,174
56,384
66,903
22,464
55,088
21,522
165,977
21,634
6,961
18,299
5,870
52,762
OperatingcashflowsofINR290bnbetweenFY13EandFY15Etoserviceinterestpayments
24

Debtservicing(Standalone)
Debtservicing
Debt
NonConvertibleSecuredDebentures
Secured Term Loans from Banks Financial Institutions & Others are given as under
SecuredTermLoansfromBanks,FinancialInstitutions&Othersaregivenasunder
LoanfromStateGovernment[InterestFree]
Advancefromclients
ForeignCurrencyConvertibleBonds
ForeignCurrencyLoansfromBanks[ECB]
Unsecured loans From Banks
UnsecuredloansFromBanks
FixedDepositsScheme
Add:ShortTermBorrowings
Total
Interest
NonConvertibleSecuredDebentures
SecuredTermLoansfromBanks,FinancialInstitutions&Othersaregivenasunder
ECB
UnsecuredloansFromBanks
FixedDepositsScheme
Total
Add I t
Add:Interestonrefinanceddebt
t
fi
d d bt
TotalInterestpayment
Bookvalue
47,550
95,246
95 246
2,189
61
18,284
13,487
2,377
20,401
10,793
210,387
Annualrepaymentshedule
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
FY13E15E
6,950 12,247 13,617 32,814
9,583
9 583 13,832
13 832 16,957
16 957 40,373
40 373

547 547
61

61
26,997

26,997
2,524 3,389 3,389 9,302
340 340 340 1,019
6,800 6,800 6,800 20,401

53,255 36,609 41,650 131,514
4,608
11,580
803
287
2,338
19,616
2,775
2 775
22,391
3,699
10,112
619
244
1,488
16,162
6,717
6 717
22,879
2,381
8,213
416
202
638
11,849
9,785
9 785
21,634
10,689
29,906
1,838
732
4,463
47,627
19,277
19 277
66,903
25

Debtservicing(JPVL)
StrongINR53bncashflowfrom1,700MWhydropowerprojects
BinaandNigrieTPPstocontributeINR27bn
CapexandinterestpaymentstoresultinoutflowofINR195bn
AdditionalfundingrequirementofINR9bnbetweenFY13EandFY15E
JVPL
CashFlowSummary
Hydropower
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
Total
Baspa
Vishnuprayag
KarchamWangtoo
Total
Thermalpower
Bina
Nigrie
i i
BaraI
Totalthermalpower
PowerTransmission
2,388
3,677
8,645
14,710
2,099
3,523
14,193
19,815
1,915
3,523
13,641
19,078
6,402
10,723
36,479
53,604
1,048
1,048
1,945
4,758
389
5,147
1,643
4,803
15,282
20,084
1,591
10,608
15,670
26,279
5,179
EmmissionReductioncredits
T t l
Totaloperatingcashflows
ti
h fl
Capex
Freecashflowstofirm
Debtrepayments/(increase)
Interestpayments
Free cash flows to equity
Freecashflowstoequity
427
18,130
18 130
73,300
(55,170)
(51,947)
9,604
(12,826)
390
26,995
26 995
33,040
(6,045)
(17,326)
11,916
(635)
408
41 161
41,161
32,880
8,281
(14,599)
17,357
5,523
1,225
86,286
86 286
139,220
(52,934)
(83,872)
38,876
(7,938)
Debt
NonConvertible
SeriesI
SeriesII
Bookvalue
10,000
9,826
19,826
Annualrepaymentschedule
FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E15E
14,049
14,049

3,660
3,660

7,970
7,970
SecuredTermLoansfromBanks,FinancialInstitutions&Others
Baspa
4,242 353 353 353
Vi h
Vishnuprayag
14,667 1,222 1,222 1,222
KarchamWangtoo
45,612 3,041 3,041 3,041
Bina
17,661 376 1,503 1,503
Nigrie(Totaltobe
drawnINR56.7bn)
22,317
2,835
Nigrie
8,489
8 489

424
Otherloans
10,000 3,333 4,444 2,222
FCCB
11,000
11,703
133,987 8,326 10,564
23,305
Add:Subsidiarydebt 20,360 2,036 2,036 2,036
TotalDebt
174,173
,
24,411
,
16,260
,
33,311
,
Interest
Intereststandalone
15,625
16,765
16,465
Interestsubsidiaries
2,322 2,078 1,833
Total
17,947
18,843
18,299
14,049
11,630
25,679
1,060
3,667
9,122
3,382
2,835
424
10,000
11,703
42,194
6,108
73,981
,
48,855
6,233
55,088
26

Cashflowsummary(JPIN)
CashFlowSummary
RealEstate
Noida
GreaterNoida
Agra
YamunaExpressway
Totaloperatingcashflows
Capex
Freecashflowstofirm
Debtrepayments/(increase)
Interestpayments
Freecashflowstoequity
FY12
8,958
((675))
8,283
18,108
(9,825)
(4,599)
8,351
(13,577)
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
Total
13,421
277
(225)
(690)
12,783
16,079
(3,296)
5,473
8,015
(16,784)
17,020
1,684
,
(54)
(3)
18,647
(50)
18,697
5,473
7,488
5,736
19,312
1,736
,
583
348
21,980
21,980
5,473
6,961
9,546
58,711
3,022
,
304
(344)
61,693
34,137
27,556
11,821
30,815
(15,080)
27

Cement:Industrymarginstoremainstable
Duetocapacityadditions,industryultilisation isestimatedtoremainbelow80%tillFY15(assuming
9%demandgrowthfromFY13toFY15).
However,posttheCCIorder,theindustryhasshowngreatresiliencebybeingabletokeeppricesfirm.
H
Hence,weexpectmarginsforFY14/FY15tostabilise
i f FY14/FY15
bili athigherlevelsexpectedinFY13
hi h l l
d i FY13
AllIndiaCapacityutilisation
AllIndia
All
India(mn
(mntonnes)
tonnes)
Installedcapacityattheyearendexitcapacities
NonoperativeCapacities(a)
EffectiveCapacity(b)
OperativeEffectivecapacity(c)=(b)(a)
Consumption domestic(d)
Consumption
domestic (d)
%changeYoY
Cement+clinkerexports(e)
Totaldemand(f)=(d)+(e)
%changeYoY
Capacity utilisation (f)/ ( c ) (%)
Capacityutilisation(f)/(c)(%)
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
215.5
257.0
280.5
299.9
331.6
356.6
364.5
4.9
4.6
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
199.5
230.2
270.1
296.5
314.6
350.0
367.8
194.6
225.6
267.3
293.7
311.8
347.3
365.0
177.5
196.4
207.5
221.3
241.2
263.2
287.2
8.6 10.7 5.6 6.7 9.0 9.1 9.1
6.1
4.8
4.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
183.6
201.2
211.6
224.8
244.7
266.7
290.7
8.3
9.6
5.2
6.2
8.8
9.0
9.0
94.4
89.2
79.2
76.6
78.5
76.8
79.7
28

Cementcashflows keyassumptions
Weexpectthecompanytocontinuetooutperformtheindustrywithvolumegrowthof16%CAGR
betweenFY12FY15E
WhileindustryEBITDA/Tonisexpectedtoremainflat,EBITDA/tforJPAislikelytoincrease
moderatelydrivenbyimprovingoperatingleverage
d
l di
b i
i
i l
Operatingcashflowof~INR74bnoverFY1315E
Capacity
Volume
EBITDA/T
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Notional Interest
NotionalInterest
NotionalPBT
NotionalPAT
Operatingcashflow
PAT
Interest
Depreciation
OperatingcashflowbeforeWCchanges
WorkingCapitalChanges
OperatingcashflowafterWCchanges
FY10
19
9
1,497
13,693
3,132
10,561
9,720
9 720
841
564
FY11
26
15
869
12,696
4,853
7,844
18,000
18 000
(10,156)
(6,805)
FY12
28
18
612
10,845
6,042
4,803
19,800
19 800
(14,997)
(10,048)
FY13E
35
22
900
19,711
7,933
11,778
21,492
21 492
(9,714)
(6,508)
FY14E
36
26
950
24,424
8,579
15,845
21,277
21 277
(5,432)
(3,640)
FY15E
36
28
1,000
28,280
9,035
19,246
21,064
21 064
(1,818)
(1,218)
564
9,720
,
3,132
13,416
13,416
(6,805)
18,000
,
4,853
16,048
16,048
(10,048)
19,800
,
6,042
15,794
937
14,857
(6,508)
21,492
,
7,933
22,916
1,350
21,566
(3,640)
21,277
,
8,579
26,217
1,485
24,732
(1,218)
21,064
,
9,035
28,881
1,382
27,498
29

The300MWBaspaIIhydroelectricplantlocatedatHimachal
PradeshisexpectedtogenerateINR6.4bnoverFY1315E
CommissionedinFY04,thisisasassuredreturnsprojectwith
16%RoEwithincentivesforhigherplantavailabilityand
16%
RoE with incentives for higher plant availability and
secondaryenergygeneration.JPVLhasinkedaPPAwithHPSEB
forofftakeofenergyfromtheproject
(M
MU)
Pastrecordofplantavailabilityandsecondaryenergy
generation present upsides to our cash flow estimates
generationpresentupsidestoourcashflowestimates
120
300
96
240
72
180
48
120
24
60

Secondaryenergy
(%)
Hydropower:Baspa
Plantavailability
Assumptionsandoperationaldetails
Baspa
PlantCapacity(MW)
Design Energy (MU)
DesignEnergy(MU)
Primarysaleableenergycapacity(MU)
Approvedcapex
Approvedequity
Plantavailability(%)
Generation
Netsaleableenergy
Revenues
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
I t
Interest
t
PBT
Tax
PAT
RoEonapprovedequity(%)
Operating cash flow
Operatingcashflow
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213
1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050
15,340 15,340 15,340 15,340 15,340 15,340 15,340 15,340
4,602 4,602 4,602 4,602 4,602 4,602 4,602 4,602
99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99
1,402 1,274 1,274 1,274 1,274 1,274 1,274 1,274
1,233 1,121 1,121 1,121 1,121 1,121 1,121 1,121
3,341 2,858 2,757 2,677 2,659 2,684 2,709 2,736
3,036 2,534 2,413 2,313 2,274 2,275 2,276 2,277
660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660
2,376 1,874 1,754 1,653 1,614 1,615 1,616 1,617
453 324 204 103 64 65 66 67
1,923 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550
635 512 512 512 512 512 512 512
1,289 1,039 1,039 1,039 1,039 1,039 1,039 1,039
28 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
2,388
2 388 2,099
2 099 1,915
1 915 1,811
1 811 1,761
1 761 1,754
1 754 1,755
1 755 1,756
1 756
30

The400MWVishnuprayaghydroelectricplantlocatedat
Uttarakhand isexpectedtogenerateINR11bnoverFY13
15E
Commissioned in FY07 this is as assured returns project
CommissionedinFY07,thisisasassuredreturnsproject
with16%RoEwithincentivesforhigherplantavailability
andgenerationofsecondaryenergy.JPVLhasinkedaPPA
withUPPCLforofftakeofenergyfromtheproject
Pastrecordofplantavailabilityandsecondaryenergy
Past
record of plant availability and secondary energy
generationpresentupsidestoourcashflowestimates
Vishnuprayag
PlantCapacity(MW)
DesignEnergy(MU)
Approvedcapex
Approvedequity
G
Generation
ti
Netsaleableenergy
Revenues
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
PBT
Tax
PAT
Operatingcashflow
(M
MU)
120
450
96
360
72
270
48
180
24
90
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
400 400 400 400
1,774 1,774 1,774 1,774
1,534 1,534 1,534 1,534
16,940 16,940 16,940 16,940
5,147 5,147 5,147 5,147
99 99 99 99
2,177
2 177 1,863
1 863 1,863
1 863 1,863
1 863
1,916 1,639 1,639 1,639
3,441 3,292 3,143 2,994
3,183 3,030 2,877 2,725
1,186 1,186 1,186 1,186
1,997
1 997 1,844
1 844 1,692
1 692 1,539
1 539
588 435 283 130
1,409 1,409 1,409 1,409
282 282 282 282
1,127 1,127 1,127 1,127
22 22 22 22
3,000 2,825 2,669 2,514
Secondaryenergy
FY17E
400
1,774
1,534
16,940
5,147
99
1,863
1 863
1,639
2,198
1,914
254
1,659
1 659
(23)
1,682
555
1,127
22
1,426
FY18E
400
1,774
1,534
16,940
5,147
99
1,863
1 863
1,639
2,061
1,761
254
1,507
1 507
(176)
1,682
555
1,127
22
1,258
((%)
Hydropower:Vishnuprayag
Plantavailability
FY19E
400
1,774
1,534
16,940
5,147
99
1,863
1 863
1,639
1,925
1,608
254
1,354
1 354
(328)
1,682
555
1,127
22
1,102
FY20E
400
1,774
1,534
16,940
5,147
99
1,863
1 863
1,639
1,789
1,455
254
1,201
1 201
(481)
1,682
555
1,127
22
947
31

Hydropower:Karcham Wangtoo
The1,000MWKarchamWangtoohydroelectricplantlocatedatHimachalPradeshisexpectedto
generateINR36bnoverFY1315E
CommissionedinFY12,thisprojecthasaassuredreturnof14%ataplantavailabilityof85%,with
i
incentivesat0.65%ofannualfixedchargeforeachpercentageavailabilityhigherthannormative
i
0 65% f
l fi d h
f
h
il bili hi h h
i
capacity
Pastrecordofplantavailabilityandsecondaryenergygenerationpresentupsidestoourcashflow
estimates
KarchamWangtoo
PlantCapacity(MW)
DesignEnergy(MU)90%dependableyear
D i E
DesignEnergy(MU)50%dependableyear
(MU) 50% d
d bl
Approvedcapex
Approvedequity
Generation
Netsaleableenergy
Revenues
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
PBT
Tax
PAT
Operatingcashflow
FY13E
1,000
4,261
4,596
4 596
3,750
69,000
20,100
99
4,596
4 596
4,044
16,814
15,738
2,128
13,610
6,721
6,889
1,378
5,511
27
8,645
FY14E
1,000
4,261
4,596
4 596
3,750
69,000
20,100
99
4,429
4 429
3,897
16,219
15,099
2,128
12,971
6,304
6,668
1,334
5,334
27
14,193
FY15E
1,000
4,261
4,596
4 596
3,750
69,000
20,100
99
4,429
4 429
3,897
16,002
14,838
2,128
12,710
5,919
6,791
1,358
5,433
27
13,641
FY16E
1,000
4,261
4,596
4 596
3,750
69,000
20,100
99
4,429
4 429
3,897
15,788
14,577
2,128
12,449
5,534
6,915
1,383
5,532
28
13,354
FY17E
1,000
4,261
4,596
4 596
3,750
69,000
20,100
99
4,429
4 429
3,897
15,577
14,318
2,128
12,190
5,150
7,040
1,408
5,632
28
13,068
FY18E
1,000
4,261
4,596
4 596
3,750
69,000
20,100
99
4,429
4 429
3,897
15,369
14,060
2,128
11,932
4,766
7,166
1,433
5,732
29
12,783
FY19E
1,000
4,261
4,596
4 596
3,750
69,000
20,100
99
4,429
4 429
3,897
15,165
13,803
2,128
11,675
4,382
7,292
1,458
5,834
29
12,499
FY20E
1,000
4,261
4,596
4 596
3,750
69,000
20,100
99
4,429
4 429
3,897
14,963
13,547
2,128
11,419
3,999
7,420
1,484
5,936
30
12,215
32

Thermalpower:Keyprojectsandtheirstatus
3,700MWthermalpowerprojectstobecommissionedbetweenFY13andFY16
CumulativeestimatedcapexofINR253bnagainstINR91bnspenttillFY12
OperationalcashflowofINR26bnbetweenFY13EandFY15E
OperationalcashflowofINR114bn
Project
Size(MW)
BinaI
500
Nigrie
1,320
Fuelsupply
Capex (INR
bn)
Capexcompleted
(FY12)
Funding
FSAexecutedforunitI
32.4
27.0
Pitheadlocatedcaptivecoalblock
JVbetweenJALandMPSPMC
81.0
37.8
Karchana I
BaraI
Cost(INRmnperMW)
Expcted COD
30:70
64.8
Operational
30:70
Edel estimateof65v/s
companyguidanceof
61.4
April2014v/s
companyguidanceof
CY2013
25:75
Edel estimateof68v/s
companyguidanceof
54.5
April2015v/s
companyguidanceof
CY 2014
CY2014
Currentlyonhold
1,980
FSAtobeexecuted
107.8
26.2
33

Thermalpower:Bina
500MWcoalbasedthermalpowerplantlocatedatMadhyaPradesh
Unit1oftheprojectcommissionedinQ2FY13;unit2expectedinQ3FY13
30%oftheelectricitygeneratedwillbesoldonmerchantbasis
yg
ProjectexpectedtogenerateINR11bnoverFY1315E
Bina
Plantcapacity(MW)
%ofyearwhenoperational
PLF(%)
Auxiliaryconsumption(%)
GrossGeneration(mnKwH)
Net Generation (mn KwH)
NetGeneration(mnKwH)
Calorificvalueofcoal
Plantheatrate
Coalrequired(MnTons)
Coalcostperton
FY12
3,500
2,400
1,350
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500
50 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
70 88 88 88 88 88 88 88
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
1,533 3,854 3,854 3,865 3,854 3,854 3,854 3,865
1,426
1 426 3,585
3 585 3,585
3 585 3,594
3 594 3,585
3 585 3,585
3 585 3,585
3 585 3,594
3 594
3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500
2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400
1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1,418 1,488 1,563 1,641 1,723 1,809 1,900 1,995
Total Revenues
TotalRevenues
Totalopex
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
PBT
Tax
ProfitAfterTax
Cashflowfromoperations
3,227
3 227
2,347
880
855
24
1,184
(1,159)
(232)
(927)
1,048
10,152
10 152
4,934
5,218
1,711
3,508
2,269
1,238
248
991
4,758
10,170
10 170
5,180
4,990
1,711
3,279
2,059
1,220
244
976
4,803
10,448
10 448
5,452
4,996
1,711
3,285
1,853
1,432
286
1,146
4,730
10,444
10 444
5,711
4,733
1,711
3,022
1,642
1,380
276
1,104
4,519
10,470
10 470
5,997
4,473
1,711
2,762
1,430
1,332
266
1,066
4,271
10,752
10 752
6,297
4,455
1,711
2,744
1,224
1,520
304
1,216
4,176
10,811
10 811
6,627
4,184
1,711
2,473
1,011
1,462
292
1,169
3,962
34

Thermalpower:Nigrie
1,320MWcoalbasedthermalpowerplantlocatedatMadhyaPradesh
ProjectexpectedtobecommissionedinFY15
50%oftheelectricitygeneratedwillbesoldonmerchantbasis
ProjectexpectedtogenerateINR15bnoverFY1315,allofitinFY15
CashgenerationintheprojectFY16onwardswillbe~INR20bnannually
Nigrie
Plantcapacity(MW)
FY12
FY13E
1,320
FY14E
1,320
FY15E
1,320
FY16E
1,320
FY17E
1,320
FY18E
1,320
FY19E
1,320
FY20E
1,320
PLF(%)
Plantheatrate
Coalcostperton
l
TotalRevenues
Totalopex
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
PBT
Tax
ProfitAfterTax
p
4,500
2,200
900
4,500
2,200
945
25
4,500
2,200
992
1,944
(1,944)
(389)
(1,555)
389
100
70
6
8,094
7,609
4,500
2,200
4
1,042
23,789
6,665
17,124
4,530
12,594
12 594
8,305
4,288
858
3,431
15,282
,
100
88
6
10,203
9,591
4,500
2,200
5
1,094
30,258
8,219
22,039
4,530
17,509
17 509
7,667
9,841
1,968
7,873
19,908
,
100
88
6
10,176
9,565
4,500
2,200
5
1,149
30,458
8,613
21,845
4,530
17,315
17 315
6,774
10,541
2,108
8,433
19,837
,
100
88
6
10,176
9,565
4,500
2,200
5
1,206
31,149
9,044
22,105
4,530
17,575
17 575
5,889
11,686
2,337
9,349
19,803
,
100
88
6
10,176
9,565
4,500
2,200
5
1,266
31,455
9,496
21,958
4,530
17,428
17 428
4,995
12,434
2,487
9,947
19,578
,
100
88
6
10,203
9,591
4,500
2,200
5
1,330
31,853
9,991
21,862
4,530
17,332
17 332
4,100
13,232
2,646
10,586
19,326
,
35

Thermalpower:Bara
1,980MWcoalbasedthermalpowerplantlocatedatUttarPradesh
ProjectexpectedtobecommissionedinFY16
90%oftheelectricitygeneratedwillbesoldonPPA
PendingcapexontheprojectisestimatedatINR109bn
CashgenerationintheprojectFY16onwardslikelytobe~INR15bnannually
BaraI
Plantcapacity(MW)
PLF(%)
G
G
i (
)
Plantheatrate
Coal cost per ton
Coalcostperton
TotalRevenues
FY12
3,500
2,350
1,198
1 198
FY13E
1,980
3,500
2,350
1,274
1 274
FY14E
1,980
3,500
2,350
1,354
1 354
FY15E
1,980
3,500
2,350
1,440
1 440
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980
70 100 100 100 100
70 88 88 88 88
6 6 6 6 6
8,522
8 22 15,263
263 15,263
263 15,263
263 15,305
30
8,011 14,348 14,348 14,348 14,387
3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500
2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350
6 10 10 10 10
1,532
1 532 1,629
1 629 1,732
1 732 1,843
1 843 1,960
1 960
20,079 37,425 37,115 38,076 37,890
Totalopex
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
PBT
Tax
ProfitAfterTax
11,713
8,366
4,995
3,371
7,710
(4,338)
(868)
(3,471)
8,150
20,100
17,325
7,135
10,189
10,167
22
4
18
16,590
21,331
15,784
7,135
8,649
9,184
(535)
(107)
(428)
16,177
22,639
15,436
7,135
8,301
8,227
74
15
60
15,509
24,086
13,804
7,135
6,668
7,240
(572)
(114)
(458)
14,225
36

RealEstate
LargestlandbankinNCRamongstallrealestateplayers bulkofitinJaypee Infratech
Establishedbrandandcredentialssold68msf,morethananyotherinthecountry,andcollected
INR78bn overpast3years
632msfofdevelopableareastillininventorybetweenJPINandJPSI;Balancelandparcelsalongthe
highgrowthcorridorofthenewlycommencedYamunaExpresswayandlargelypartoftheJaypee
SportsCity
EBITDAofINR103bn overFY1315E,CashgenerationofINR67bnoverFY1315E
Locationwiseperformance JPA(consolidated)
Company/Location
JALGreaterNoida
JAL
G t N id
JALNoida
JaypeeInfratech
JaypeeSportsIntl.
Cumulativearea
sold(msf)
5.72
5 72
8.33
47.10
2.34
0.4msy
68
Cumulativesales
value(INRmn)
28,790
28 790
48,896
150,580
7,196
6,592
242,054
242 054
Cumulative
collections
20,830
20 830
30,519
86,213
2,966
145,325
145 325
Average
realisations
5,036
5 036
5,870
3,197
3,075
18,582
3,576
3 576
Annualsalesperformance Jaypee Infratech

Period
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
Q1FY13
No.ofunitssold
700
13,205
,
7,906
5,100
967
27,878
Areasold(msf)
1
20
12
11
3
47
Averagerate(INR/sf)
3,328
2,540
,
3,308
4,162
3,724
3,197
Salesvalue
3,162
51,705
,
40,953
45,450
9,310
150,580
Advancesreceived
630
16,699
,
31,455
29,378
8,050
86,212
Source: Company
Source:Company
37

LandparcelsofJPAsrealestatedivision
Company/Location
JALGreaterNoida
JAL Noida
JALNoida
JaypeeInfratech
JaypeeSportsIntl.
Total
TotalDevelopable
Area(msf)
8
24
530
133
696
Source:Company
38

Realestate:JPIN
Vastdevelopmentpotentialof530msfover5landparcelsalongtheYamunaExpressway
Robustsalesof9.55msfatanaveragerateofINR4,141inFY12
ExpectedsalesofINR133bn(33msf)atanaveragerateofINR4,000overFY1315E
CommencementofYamunaExpresswayexpectedtoenhanceconnectivityandincreaseeconomicactivityin
thesurroundingarea
JPINRealestateperformance
JaypeeInfratech
Areasold
Noida
GreaterNoida
Agra
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
8.47
1.08
9.55
8.83
1.75
0.75
11.33
7.01
2.60
1.45
11.06
5.60
3.07
2.15
10.82
4,350
2,500
4,141
4,568
2,625
2,205
4,111
4,796
2,756
2,315
3,991
5,036
2,894
2,431
3,910
28,364
909
29,273
39,052
2,674
514
42,240
45,729
5,520
1,712
52,961
43,977
7,856
3,567
55,401
16,551
1,521
18,071
Taxespaid
2,918
Operatingcashflow
8,283
21,926
2,230
708
24,864
3,904
13,472
24,260
3,498
1,656
29,415
4,896
18,650
20,817
5,555
2,751
29,124
4,645
21,631
AverageRate
A
R t
Noida
GreaterNoida
Agra
Cash Inflows
CashInflows
Noida
GreaterNoida
Agra
CashOutflows
Noida
GreaterNoida
Agra

39
YamunaExpressway:JPIN
The6laneaccesscontrolledexpresswayhascommencedoperationsfromAugust9,2012
Withatrafficpotentialof45,000PCUsperday,weexpecttraffictorampupsteadilyover57years
Currently,theroadisgeneratingdailytollcollectionofINR2.5mnperday
y,
g
g
y
p
y
YamunaExpresswayperformancemetrics
YEGreaterNoidaAgra
TrafficVolume('000PCUs)
TollRate(INR/km)
TollRevenue(INRmn)
OperatingExpenditure
EBITDA
Less:
Interest
TaxPayable/(Shield)
FCFF
Less:DebtRepayment
FCFE
FY13E
821
1.9
207
896
(690)
FY14E
3,548
2.0
947
950
(3)
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
4,790 9,311 13,408 19,307 22,927 22,927
2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9
1,355 2,793 4,263 6,507 8,191 8,682
1,007 1,068 1,132 1,200 1,272 1,348
348 1,725 3,131 5,308 6,919 7,335
6,384
(2,495)
(4,579)
4,507
(9,086)
(9 086)
6,766
(3,406)
(3,363)
4,507
(7,870)
(7 870)
6,616
(3,100)
(3,167)
4,507
(7,674)
(7 674)
5,983
(2,514)
(1,744)
4,507
(6,252)
(6 252)
5,303
(1,930)
(241)
4,507
(4,749)
(4 749)
4,863
(1,257)
1,702
4,507
(2,806)
(2 806)
4,424
(713)
3,208
4,507
(1,299)
(1 299)
3,984
118
3,232
4,507
(1,275)
(1 275)
40

FinancialSummary
Particulars
IncomeStatement
Revenues
EBIDTA
Interest
P fit b f
Profitbeforetax
t
Corenetprofit
EPS(INR)
Balancesheet
Shareholdersfunds
Borrowings
Borrowings
MinorityInterest&others
Sourcesoffunds
Totalfixedassets
Investments
Totalcurrentassets
Totalcurrentliabilities&provisions
NetCurrentAssets
Usesoffunds
CashFlowMetrics
Operatingcashflow
Financingcashflow
Investingcashflow
Netcashflow
Capex
Ratios
ROE (%)
ROE(%)
NPMargin(%)
P/E(x)
Price/BV(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
65,256
21,917
12,864
20,127
20 127
11,192
5.27
112,593
47,397
18,747
25,891
25 891
13,823
6.50
147,732
53,645
31,341
16,260
16 260
6,329
2.98
205,984
77,532
56,332
8,704
8 704
558
0.26
245,027
91,087
53,644
21,799
21 799
9,707
4.56
285,427
106,927
47,237
38,956
38 956
19,433
9.14
85,403
352,711
352 711
21,635
459,748
304,050
10,586
205,515
60,403
145,112
459,748
107,791
444,450
444 450
44,356
596,598
420,980
31,111
228,080
83,573
144,507
596,598
114,780
531,742
531 742
47,490
694,013
532,539
32,312
227,912
98,750
129,163
694,013
111,757
592,658
592 658
49,691
754,106
618,408
32,312
214,411
111,025
103,387
754,106
(0)
(10,151) 17,517 41,308 99,381
148,005 90,640 60,257 3,117
(92,216) (124,821) (141,145) (96,311)
45,638 (16,664) (39,580) 6,187
(105,082) (129,092) (142,889) (99,619)
116,530
585,681
585 681
52,033
754,244
644,937
32,312
192,565
115,570
76,995
754,244
(0)
94,168
(62,087)
(39,843)
(7,762)
(42,990)
127,187
569,455
569 455
54,530
751,172
666,658
32,312
173,314
121,112
52,202
751,172
0
97,402
(64,928)
(39,837)
(7,362)
(42,880)
15.79
15 79
18.20
13.97
1.95
19.79
17.25
17 25
14.77
9.99
1.54
11.44
8.52
8 52
6.42
17.52
1.45
12.47
11.54
11 54
5.38
12.61
1.43
7.96
21.95
21 95
9.37
6.21
1.31
6.69
2.11
2 11
1.16
69.53
1.49
9.34
41

CompanyStructure
JPA
Cement
Standalone
(26mt)
Power
JCCL100%subsidiary
(10mt)
ThermalPower
500MWBina
1320MWNigrie
1980MWBara
Realestate
JPVL67.9%
Subsidiary
HydroPower
300MWBaspa
p y g
400MWVishnuprayag
1000MWKarcham
Wangtoo
Standalone
74%subsidiary
214 kms PGCIL
214kmsPGCIL
transmissionline
Noida(24.3msf)
G t N id (8 f)
GreaterNoida(8msf)
JaypeeInfratech
(83.1%subsidiary)
JPSI(90.5%subsidiary
(133msf)
LandparcelsatNoida,
Jaganpur,Mirzzapur,
T
TappalandAgraof
l dA
f
1,235acreseach
Source:Company
42

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Stockpresents78% upsidefromCMP:TheJaiprakashAssociates(JPA)stockpresents78% upside

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FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

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Our target does not take into accountanypotentialofre

Sensitivity analysis indicates comfortable cushion

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Assets well positioned to post strong earnings growth

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Third largest player in India

Largest land bank inNCRamongst

1 700 MW of operational hydro

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Source: Company, Edelweiss research

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Financially closed projects Nigrie Bara to drive balance capex overFY1315

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Capex reduces as assets get commissioned

FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

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FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

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Hydro power to contribute INR53bn over FY13 15E

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ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

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ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

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ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

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ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.

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ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF.