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Summary
The past three years have seen a series of dramatic changes in Guineas political landscape, a new experience for a country that had only two presidents in the first 50 years after independence in 1958. In late 2008, a military junta took power following the death of longtime president Lansana Cont. Junta leader Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara was shot and wounded by his own bodyguard in December 2009, and his departure paved the way for a military-led transitional government. In June 2010, Guineans voted in their countrys first presidential election organized by an independent electoral commission and without an incumbent candidate. Longtime exiled opposition leader Alpha Cond, who had previously never served in government, was declared the winner after a much-delayed run-off poll in November. Conds inauguration brought an end to two years of military rule and could potentially enable key reforms and the implementation of the rule of law, which are considered prerequisites for private sector growth and increased respect for human rights. Yet political, security, and socioeconomic challenges remain stark. State institutions are badly eroded, and Cond has been accused by opposition parties of attempting to delay and manipulate planned legislative elections. A former French colony on West Africas Atlantic coast, with a population of about 10 million, Guinea is rich in natural resources but its citizens are afflicted by widespread poverty. Guinea has significant mineral deposits, notably comprising a quarter or more of global bauxite (aluminum ore) reserves, and U.S. companies are involved in the extractive industries sector. Chinese investment, though longstanding, appears to be on the rise and has sparked international and internal controversy. International policy makers view Guinea as central to preserving security gains in neighboring Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Cte dIvoire. While Guinea has experienced regular episodes of internal political turmoil since independence in 1958, it was considered a locus of relative stability during much of the past 25 years, during which time each of its six neighbors suffered armed internal conflicts. Still, democratic progress was limited, and popular discontent with the government rose along with instability within the outsized and fractious armed forces. Since the military coup of 2008, Guinea has been seen as a potential vector of insecurity, particularly as its role as a hub in the transnational narcotics trade has grown. U.S. policy challenges in Guinea center on democratization and good governance; counternarcotics issues; security sector reform; economic interests; regional peace and stability; and socioeconomic and institutional development. Following the 2008 military coup, the United States identified Guineas political transition as a key policy goal in West Africa and made significant financial and diplomatic contributions toward the success of Guineas election process. Selective U.S. bilateral aid restrictions, which were imposed in connection with the coup, have been lifted in the wake of the successful transfer of power to a civilian-led administration. U.S. policymakers have indicated support for the resumption of bilateral security assistance and for security sector reform, but the levels and types of U.S. assistance may be weighed against other regional and policy priorities. Congress may play a role in guiding U.S. engagement with Guinea through the authorization, appropriation, and oversight of U.S. programs and policies. Guineafocused legislation introduced during the 111th Congress included H.Res. 1013 (Ros-Lehtinen) and S.Res. 345 (Boxer).
Contents
Overview ....................................................................................................................................1 Recent Developments............................................................................................................2 Armed Attack on President Cond: July 2011 ..................................................................2 Disputes Regarding Legislative Elections, Harassment of Opposition Leaders.................3 Recent Congressional Actions ...............................................................................................3 Background ................................................................................................................................5 The Rise of the CNDD Military Junta ...................................................................................5 The September 28 Protests and International Criminal Court Investigation ............................6 Dadis Camaras Exit and Growing Instability ........................................................................7 Formation of a Transitional Government ...............................................................................7 The 2010 Presidential Election ....................................................................................................8 Election Administration.........................................................................................................9 Election Violence................................................................................................................ 10 The Economy............................................................................................................................ 11 Socioeconomic Conditions .................................................................................................. 12 Recent Mining Sector Developments................................................................................... 12 Security Issues and the Rule of Law .......................................................................................... 14 The Guinean Military: A Key Security Challenge ................................................................ 14 Drug Trafficking ................................................................................................................. 15 Foreign Relations ...................................................................................................................... 16 Relations with Neighboring States....................................................................................... 16 U.S. Relations ........................................................................................................................... 17 U.S. Assistance ................................................................................................................... 18 Security Assistance and Counter-Narcotics Cooperation ................................................ 18 Multilateral Aid............................................................................................................. 20 Outlook..................................................................................................................................... 20
Figures
Figure 1. Map of Guinea .............................................................................................................4
Tables
Table 1. Selected Bilateral Aid by Account ................................................................................ 19
Contacts
Author Contact Information ...................................................................................................... 21 Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................... 21
Overview
Guinea is a former French colony in West Africa, about the size of Oregon, which has experienced regular episodes of political turmoil. Poor governance, corruption, weak or nonexistent infrastructure, and other factors have prevented its population from benefiting from rich natural resource endowments: Guineas development indicators are poor even by regional standards, and living conditions are among the worst in the world. 1 During much of the past two decades, Guinea was considered a locus of relative stability in a sub-region that has witnessed multiple armed conflicts. However, Guineas political outlook plunged in late 2008, when a military junta took power following the death of longtime President Lansana Cont. Guinea saw a rise in insecurity under the erratic leadership of junta leader Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara. Dadis Camara was shot by a security aide in December 2009, paving the way for a military-led transitional government and, eventually, elections. Guinea at a Glance
Population: 10.6 million (July 2011 est.) Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $4.1 billion (2009) GDP per capita: $407 (2009) Age structure: 0-14 years 43%, 15-64 years 54%, 65+ years 3% Ethnic groups: Peul (Fulbe/Fulani) 40%, Malink (Mandingo) 30%, Soussou 20%, smaller ethnic groups 10% Religions: Muslim 85%; Christian 8%; indigenous beliefs Languages: French (official); local languages Life expectancy at birth: 58.1 years Infant mortality: 63 deaths/1,000 live births (2011 est.) HIV/AIDS adult prevalence: 1.3% (2009 est.) Adult literacy: 29.5% (2003 est.) Natural resources: bauxite [aluminum ore], iron ore, diamonds, gold, uranium, hydropower, fish, salt Major trading partners: India, China, France, Netherlands, Spain, Russia, Germany, United States, Belgium, Ukraine Sources: CIA World Factbook; World Bank
In June 2010, Guineans voted in the countrys first presidential election organized by an independent electoral commission and without an incumbent candidate. Longtime exiled opposition leader Alpha Cond was declared the winner after a much-delayed run-off poll in November. His inauguration in December brought an end to two years of military rule and, many hope, to over 50 years of authoritarianism. Legislative elections are expected within the next year, though an electoral timeline has not been set. As Guineas first freely elected president, Alpha Cond faces tremendous expectations from Guineas impoverished population as well as vast challenges. The pre- and post-electoral periods were afflicted by violence, some of it ethnically tinged, which revealed latent tensions and damaged the social fabric in Conakry and other ethnically mixed areas. State institutions, including the judiciary, military, law enforcement agencies, and civilian bureaucracy, are in disarray. Guineas economy, already very weak, has been severely impacted by political instability and a two-year suspension of multilateral financial assistance (now on its way to being restored). Cond has identified security sector reform, mining sector reform, agricultural development, and transitional justice as among his policy priorities. While most observers view these goals as laudatory, the capacity and political will of Conds administration remain untested. Some analysts also point to the issue of justice as potentially divisive and destabilizing, particularly when it comes to the potential pursuit of exiled former junta leader Dadis Camara and
1
See, e.g., U.N. Development Program (UNDP), Human Development Report 2010, at http://hdr.undp.org/en/.
other members of the military, who are potential targets of an ongoing International Criminal Court investigation. The United States played a key role in Guineas political transition by isolating the military junta that came to power in 2008 and supporting the electoral process that led to the successful 2010 vote. Future support for Guineas democratic and socio-economic development is likely to be weighed against competing priorities. Congress may guide U.S. engagement with Guinea through its authorization and appropriation of foreign assistance and its oversight of executive branch policies and programs. Issues of interest to Congress may include U.S. foreign aid programs, including aid for good governance and security assistance and cooperation; Guineas democratic trajectory and prospects for institutional reforms; the role of Guineas military and prospects for security sector reform; counter-narcotics and transnational organized crime; Guineas natural resource wealth and related U.S. investments; and Guineas potential impact on regional stability.
U.S. interest has also arisen over Guineas identity as a historically moderate, majority-Muslim country in a region affected by violent extremism. Alpha Cond: Guineas Newly Elected President
Alpha Cond, 73, has spent most of the past forty years in exile, largely in France. Prior to his inauguration in December 2010, Cond had never served in government. A lawyer and law professor, Cond was an opponent in exile of Guineas founding president, Ahmed Skou Tour, and in 1971 was sentenced in absentia for allegedly seeking to overthrow the state. He founded the Rassemblement du Peuple Guinen (Rally of the Guinean People, RPG) Guineas first registered opposition partyin the early 1990s, and challenged then-President Lansana Cont in presidential elections in 1993 (Guineas first multi-party vote) and 1998. He received 19% and 16% of the vote in these elections, respectively; both were marred by reports of irregularities and fraud. Following the 1998 election, Cond was arrested for trying to leave the country illegally and attempting to overthrow the government. He was sentenced to five years in prison in 2000, but released in 2001 on a presidential pardon. Cond and the RPG boycotted the 2002 legislative election and the 2003 presidential election. Cond is a member of the Malink (Mande) ethnic group, which is concentrated in Guineas northeast and is thought to constitute the presidents base; Cond also drew cross-ethnic support, notably from the Soussou and Forestier ethnic communities, during the campaign.
Recent Developments
Armed Attack on President Cond: July 2011
President Alpha Conds residence came under heavily armed attack in the early hours of July 19. The president survived unharmed, but at least one member of his presidential guard was killed in the assault. The attack has been blamed on senior members of the armed forces. Several dozen soldiers, as well as some civilians, have been arrested. Those who planned the attack do not appear to have tried to seize the radio station or key infrastructure hubs. An investigation into the incident is ongoing. Cond has called for calm and has stated that the situation is currently under control. Some analysts surmise that the attack was sparked by Conds attempts to stem
corruption within the senior military command and by his failure to implement a doubling of military salaries as he had earlier promised; ethnic and generational divides within the military may also have been factors. A prominent opposition politician, Amadou Oury Bah, has been missing since the assault; his whereabouts and the reasons behind his disappearance are unclear.
Statement of Senator Russ Feingold on Guinean Soldiers Firing Into an Opposition Rally, September 29, 2009; Office of Congressman Howard Berman, Guineas Military Leaders, Tarnished by Violence, Should Allow for Free and Fair Elections, Berman Says, October 8, 2009; Yvette D. Clarke, Movement of Guinean Women in the United (continued...)
a hearing on the political situation in Guinea following the eruption of mass anti-government demonstrations earlier that year.6 The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2010 (Section 7070, Title VII, Division F of P.L. 111-117, signed into law on December 16, 2009) restricts International Military Education and Training (IMET) programs in Guinea to Expanded IMET (E-IMET), which emphasizes respect for human rights and civilian control of the military. This provision has been carried over in subsequent continuing appropriations legislation for the duration of FY2011. Figure 1. Map of Guinea
Source: CRS
(...continued) States, October 28, 2009, Congressional Record, Page E2648; Letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, signed by Senators Russ Feingold, Richard G. Lugar, Jeanne Shaheen, Johnny Isakson, Barbara Boxer, James M. Inhofe, Patrick J. Leahy, Sam Brownback, Robert P. Casey Jr., Benjamin Cardin, Mary L. Landrieu, Sheldon Whitehouse, Bill Nelson, and Roland W. Burris, October 15, 2009. 6 See U.S. Congress, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Africa and Global Health, Prospects for Peace in Guinea, 110th Cong., 1st sess., March 22, 2007 (Washington: GPO).
Background
For 26 years following independence from France in 1958, Guinea was ruled as a one-party, socialist revolutionary state under the charismatic but repressive leadership of Ahmed Skou Tour. Following Tours death in 1984, Colonel (later, General) Lansana Cont came to power in a military coup dtat. Cont oversaw some economic and political reforms, but his critics accused him of stifling Guineas democratic development while allowing corruption and nepotism to flourish. The final years of Conts rule were marked by a decline in average living standards, competition for influence among members of the senior bureaucracy and elite business sectors, the disintegration of state institutions, and increasing signs of public dissatisfaction. Conts supporters, however, argued that his leadership prevented Guinea from experiencing the kind of brutal armed civil conflict that has afflicted many of its neighbors. While Guinea held several general elections under Cont, democratic gains were limited, and power remained concentrated in the hands of Cont and his shifting inner circle of businessmen and politicians. A growing number of formerly rare strikes and demonstrations erupted starting in 2006. They were spurred by growing public discontent with economic stagnation and high inflation, the slow pace of promised democratic reforms, extensive corruption, and Conts semi-autocratic leadership. These peaked with a general strike and nationwide anti-government demonstrations in early 2007 which nearly brought the country to a halt and pushed Cont to propose a series of reforms, many of which were never implemented. Divisions and unrest within the military, often over pay and slow rates of promotion, also grew. Particularly notable was a May 2008 uprising led by junior army officers at Camp Alpha Yaya, the largest military base in Conakry and the headquarters of the armys elite commando unit, the BATA. In June 2008, military troops crushed an attempted police mutiny over alleged non-payment of back-wages and a failure to implement pledged promotions. This culminated in a bloody shoot-out at a police headquarters near downtown Conakry. Many analysts predicted a military coup if Cont were to die in office. However, it was unclear what faction or individuals might prevail, as the military was reportedly deeply divided along ethnic and generational lines. Analysts also debated whether Guinea risked significant ethnic violence, which could potentially spread to neighboring states, or whether Guineans historically strong sense of national identity and social cohesion meant that such a scenario was unlikely. International concerns over potential instability heightened with reports that drug trafficking activities were being facilitated or directly undertaken by government officials, members of the military, and Cont associates.
appeared split between ethnic Malink and Forestiers, a collective term for a constellation of small ethnic groups (including the Guerz) who tie their roots to Guineas rain-forested southeast and have historically been politically marginalized at the national level. Upon assuming power, the CNDD immediately took steps to assert its authority, for instance by suspending civilian regional administrators and replacing them with military commanders. The CNDD also created several new ministerial-level positions, headed by members of the military or close civilian associates. Several key ministries, including security, defense, and finance, and the governor of the Central Bank, were attached to the presidency. Signs of fault lines within the military soon emerged, heightening concerns over potential intra-military violence. Several military officers were purged from the junta or imprisoned in 2009 on accusations of plotting against Dadis Camara or other leaders. In July 2009, Gen. Mamadouba Toto Camara, security minister and the most senior CNDD officer, was assaulted by members of the presidential guard.7 Dadis Camara initially committed to overseeing free and fair elections and a peaceful transition to a civilian-led government within a year, agreeing to a timetable set by a broad coalition of political parties, trade unions, and civil society groups known as the Forces Vives (Active Forces). He also promised that neither he nor any CNDD member would run for office. However, elections were repeatedly postponed. Dadis Camara indicated that he might choose to run for president, compounding suspicions that junta members were reluctant to leave power.
crackdown may have constituted crimes against humanity and recommended a referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC).10 Although Dadis Camara condemned the violence, he denied responsibility, contending that the opposition was at fault and that he was not in full command of the armed forces.11 In October, the chief prosecutor for the ICC announced he was opening a preliminary examination of the situation.12 The ICC examination remains ongoing.
Forces Vives spokesman Jean-Marie Dor was named prime minister on January 19, and in February he appointed a 34-person cabinet composed of a mix of CNDD members and civilians. In early March, a National Transition Council (CNT) was inaugurated as a quasi-legislative body, with 155 members representing political parties, trade unions, civil society groups, and other socio-economic demographics.16 The CNT drafted a new constitution and a new electoral code, which were promulgated by presidential decree. Dadis Camara has declined to return to Guinea, and he publicly supported the transitional government and progress toward elections.17 As interim president, Konat moved to build donor and regional support, and made multiple state visits to neighboring countries and to France. Using a combination of patronage and force, he also consolidated power within the armed forces. He closed down militia training camps and arrested, co-opted, or otherwise sidelined a number of military commanders seen as loyal to Dadis Camara and other potential rivals. In early July, Konat granted mass promotions to much of the militarys officer corps, in what was widely viewed as a reward to soldiers for refraining from intervening in the vote. Konat received widespread praise for instituting greater discipline and control within the military, and for stemming military abuses against civilians. However, his actions largely focused on internal command issues and did not necessarily pave the way for greater civilian oversight under an eventual elected government.
including Cond and third-place rival Sidya Tour, contested the results; these challenges were overturned by the Supreme Court. After a series of delays related to logistical challenges, politicized wrangling over election administration, and a dispute over the leadership of the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), a run-off vote between Diallo and Cond was held on November 7, 2010. Election observers noted that many deficiencies recorded during the first roundsuch as insufficient election materials, too few polling stations in some regions, and a lack of training for many poll workerswere corrected prior to the run-off vote. However, there were still some logistical deficiencies. International election observers were largely positive in their initial, preliminary statements following the vote. 21 The November poll represented a contest between two candidates with starkly contrasting political histories and bases of support. Cond was a longtime opposition leader who had lived in exile during most of Guineas post-independence history, while Diallo was a former prime minister who was at one time seen as close to Guineas former president, Lansana Cont. The vote was nonetheless perceived by many, in part, as an ethnic contest between Guineas two largest ethnic groups: the Peul (Fulbe/Fulani), who were seen as constituting Diallos base, and the Malink (Mandingo), seen as constituting Conds base. The run-off vote was preceded by incidents of ethnic violence, reportedly including attacks against ethnic Peuls in several majorityMalink areas in northeastern Guinea. These attacks caused population displacements and led Diallos party to contend that it was unable to field election observers in those areas out of security concerns; this, in turn, became a bitter point of contention between the two candidates. On November 15, the CENI announced that provisional results showed a victory by Cond, with about 52.5% of the vote against 47.5% for Diallo. Participation was roughly 67% percent nationally. Diallo initially challenged the results and claimed that they were tainted by fraud, particularly in two districts affected by ethnic violence just prior to the vote. Unrest erupted in Conakry and in areas that had supported Diallos candidacy, largely in the northern Fouta Djallon region (see Election Violence, below). However, Diallo conceded to Cond after the Supreme Court certified the results, and the security situation has since been relatively quiet.
Election Administration
Elections were organized by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), which was created in 2007 as an oversight body, part of a series of reforms agreed to under Cont. The interior ministry (known in Guinea as the MATAP), which was previously responsible for organizing elections, played a secondary role by assisting the CENI with logistics. The presidential election cost an estimated $36.1 million, not including voter registration and related costs.22 Major donors included the European Union, the United States, France, Japan, Germany, and Spain; the U.N. Development Program played a coordinating role. China also reportedly contributed, for example through the donation of motorcycles for the transportation of electoral materials and other equipment.
21 Ibid; European Union (EU), Statement by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton on the Presidential Elections in the Republic of Guinea, November 8, 2010. 22 USAID responses to CRS query, November 2010.
The legal framework for the elections consisted of a new constitution and electoral law promulgated by decree in April and May 2010. While both contained improvements over previous frameworkssuch as the institution of term limits, guarantees as to the CENIs independence, and the introduction of a single-ballot systemimplementation was reportedly inconsistent, in part due to the short time-line prior to the vote. In addition, several deadlines required under the electoral law were not respected, for example, with regard to the determination of polling station locations and the development of new voting procedures. 23
Election Violence
Delays associated with the organization of the run-off vote provoked violence between party supporters, at times along ethnic lines, in mid-September and mid-October. In October, a wave of violence in urban centers across the country appeared to be sparked by allegations that Peul vendors had poisoned RPG supporters at a political rally.24 In the northeastern towns of Siguiri and Kouroussa, witnesses characterized the violence as ethnically motivated, with majorityMalink populations (perceived as largely supporting the RPG) reportedly targeting Peul residents and shopkeepers, resulting in thousands of displacements soon before the vote. (New polling stations were later set up so that these displaced persons could vote in areas to which they had fled.) While the violence did not immediately escalate into wider reprisal attacks, the incidents in Siguiri and Kouroussa became a central grievance of the UFDG party. Contending that its party representatives were unable to observe the vote in those areas due to intimidation, the UFDG called on the electoral commission to nullify the Siguiri and Kouroussa results amounting to some 200,000 votes, or more than the total separating Diallo from Cond in provisional results.25 Violence again erupted after the November 15 announcement of Conds victory, this time in Conakry and the Diallo strongholds of Lab and Pita. Initially, violence was reportedly instigated between civilians perceived to be of opposing political sympathies in ethnically mixed neighborhoods. On November 17, interim president General Skouba Konat declared a state of emergency, and the military joined in security patrols along with police and members of the Special Force for the Security of the Election Process (FOSSEPEL), a newly created election security force. Reports indicated that security forces engaged in abuses during the crackdown, including targeted attacks against Diallo supporters and ethnic Peuls. 26 This sparked fears that attacks could escalate into large-scale ethnic violence and regional instability,27 but the security situation largely stabilized after November 19.
23 The Carter Center, The Carter Center Commends Guineas Historical Election; Urges Continued Calm in PostElection Period, June 29, 2010. 24 AFP, Guine: Violences Contre des Peuls Dans la Ville de Siguiri (Tmoins), October 23, 2010. These allegations were publicly repeated by senior RPG officials. 25 Guineenews, Rsultats Officiels Prsidentielle 2010 (CENI), at http://www.guineenews.org. 26 HRW, Guinea: Witnesses Describe Security Force Excesses, November 29, 2010; International Crisis Group (ICG), Conflict Risk Alert: Guinea, November 18, 2010; U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, Violence and State of Emergency in Guinea, November 2010. As of November 18, at least seven people had been reported killed in the post-election clashes. Human Rights Watch reported that it had received numerous credible reports of misconduct by policemen and gendarmes serving with FOSSEPEL, including beatings and assaults on party supporters.... Based on the reports, some members of the security unit used the [election-related] unrest as a pretext to loot shops and commit criminal acts, including theft of mobile phones, money, and other goods. 27 International Crisis Group (ICG), Conflict Risk Alert: Guinea, November 18, 2010.
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The Economy
Guinea boasts bountiful natural resources, including over a quarter of global reserves of bauxite (aluminum ore); sizable deposits of high-grade iron ore, diamonds, gold, and uranium; and possible oil and gas reserves. It also has significant hydro-electric and commercial agricultural potential. The economy relies heavily on mineral exports; joint-venture bauxite mining and alumina operations have historically provided about 80% of Guineas foreign exchange. 28 Since late 2008, the global economic recession, political instability, and the governments erratic governance of the mining sector have negatively affected Guineas mining output and caused major investment projects to be delayed or canceled. 29 Still, a number of new mining agreements, albeit some that are controversial, have been signed since 2008. As of early 2011, Guinea appeared to be enjoying a rise in mining production and a slight economic recovery following negative growth in 2009, but the macroeconomic picture remains mixed.30 Guinea provided 24% of U.S. bauxite and alumina imports between 2006 and 2009, making it the second largest source of U.S. bauxite and alumina imports (after Jamaica).31 Several U.S.-based resource firms operate in Guinea and face possible growing competition from other foreign investors in Guinea, notably from China.32 While Guineas economic potential is considerable, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is estimated at only $407, and over 70% of the workforce is employed in (largely subsistence) agriculture. 33 Limited national infrastructure, periodic labor strikes, corruption, and political instability are considered to pose barriers to long-term growth. Lack of capacity and the poor quality of education are also hindrances. Inflation is at least 20%, according to the International Monetary Fund. Reports suggest government finances have been depleted in recent years due to corruption and mismanagement, a drop in the collection of import duties, declining global mineral commodity prices, misguided monetary policy, and the freezing of most donor budgetary support after the 2008 military coup.34 When Alpha Cond became president, he publicly alleged
State Department, Background Note: Guinea. The Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinea (CBG), for example, is a joint venture in which 49% of the shares are owned by the Guinean Government and 51% by an international consortium led by Alcoa and Rio Tinto-Alcan. 29 See EIU, Country Report: Guinea, June 2009; Lydia Polgreen, As Chinese Investment in Africa Drops, Hope Sinks, The New York Times, March 25, 2009; Andrea Hotter, Guinea Ruler Worries Miners, The Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2009; Reuters, Guinea Bauxite Income Seen Down 60 Pct in 2010, September 28, 2009. 30 Africa Mining Intelligence, Conakry: Mining Output Climbing, December 1, 2010; Global Insight, Guineas Finance Ministry Highlights Recent Economic Progress, June 23, 2011. 31 U.S. Geological Survey, 2009 Bauxite and Alumina Survey. 32 The large U.S.-based multinational aluminum firm Alcoa, for instance, is a major shareholder in the Compagnie des Bauxites de Guine, a bauxite mining and export partnership with the Guinean state, while a much smaller U.S energy firm, Hyperdynamics, holds the largest single license for offshore oil exploration. Hyperdynamics, a Texas-based oil prospecting firm, holds exploration rights in Guinea under a Production Sharing Contract (PSC) signed with the Guinean government in 2006. The Guinean government later disputed the terms of the PSC, and in 2009 Hyperdynamics was forced to rescind all but 36% of its original acreage in exchange for confirmation of the validity of its remaining concession. The firm has indicated it will continue oil exploration activities within the remaining area. 33 World Bank development indicators database.
34 IMF and World Bank programs were suspended in early 2009 but are en route to being reinstated following the 2010 presidential election. Private sector analysts note that the poor quality of fiscal reporting in Guinea makes it difficult to estimate the size of the fiscal deficit (EIU, Guinea: Country Report, March 2009: 8).
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that the CNDD junta had depleted state coffers.35 Guineas external debt burden$3.1 billion in 2008 according to the World Bankis also considerable (see Multilateral Aid, below).
Socioeconomic Conditions
Guineas living standards are among the worlds worst: it was ranked 156 out of 169 countries assessed on the U.N. Development Programs (UNDP) Human Development Index for 2010.36 Access to running water and electricity is rare, including in Conakry and other urban centers; shortages of basic goods, including petrol, cooking gas, and staple food commodities, are common. Though agriculturally fertile, Guinea is periodically subject to food insecurity. According to figures released by the United Nations in May 2009, the rate of chronic malnutrition increased over the previous two years, from 34.8% to 36.2%; 8.3% of Guinean children are thought to suffer from serious malnutrition. 37 Annual health expenditures per capita amount to only $26, according to the World Bank. The World Health Organization considers Guinea to be a country under surveillance with respect to potential complex humanitarian emergency needs. 38 The suspension of some non-emergency donor assistance reportedly negatively affected the provision of humanitarian aid in some parts of Guinea.39 Poor living conditions helped spark nationwide anti-government protests in 2007, and some fear that continued economic decline could lead to further unrest.
Global Insight, President Claims Military Junta Has Left Guinea Bankrupt, February 22, 2011. UNDP, Human Development Report 2010, at http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2010/chapters/en/. 37 U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Information Bulletin May 2009. 38 World Health Organization, Africa Weekly Emergency Situation Update, February 8, 2010. 39 IRIN, Guinea: Climbing Out of the Donor Funding Gap, July 28, 2010.
40 EIU, Guinea: Country Report, March 2009: 16; Andrea Hotter, Guinea Ruler Worries Miners, The Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2009; Reuters, Analysis-Guinea RUSAL Dispute Sends Warning Sign to Miners, September 16, 2009.
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decision later upheld by a Guinean court. The junta subsequently valued the refinery at $257 million and accused RusAl of failing to pay significant taxes and royalties. RusAl has repeatedly stated that the refinery was legitimately acquired; negotiations over its status are ongoing.41 Another case of disputed foreign asset ownership centers around the multinational mining company Rio Tinto. In August 2009, Rio Tinto announced it would pull its equipment from an anticipated $6 billion iron ore project in southeastern Simandou after the CNDD indicated it would uphold a decision made under Cont to award half of Rio Tintos concession to another company, BSG Resources Guinea, a subsidiary of Israeli businessman Benny Steinmetzs BSG Resources (BSGR). Rio Tinto rejected the decision and pledged to fight it in court. In March 2010, Rio Tinto and Chinas state-run mining firm Chinalco signed a $1.35 billion deal in which Chinalco was said to acquire a 47% stake in the Simandou venture. However, Guinean transitional authorities indicated they did not recognize the deal and warned Rio Tinto that it risked incurring further losses.42 The warning may have stemmed from fears among some officials who benefited from the transaction that a new elected government would revise the decision. At the same time, the transitional government approved a joint venture between BSGR and the Brazilian mining company Vale pertaining to the portion of the Simandou reserve claimed by BSGR. The terms of the Vale deal were opaque, although the company has indicated that it will spend $1 billion to refurbish the Guinean railway. 43 In April 2011, the Cond administration and Rio Tinto reached an agreement in which Rio Tinto accepted the loss of half of its concession but was allowed to pursue development of the remaining blocs with a Chinalco subsidiary, in exchange for ceding a larger ownership share and a $700 million payment to the government. 44 Transparency advocates contend that the payment has been kept out of the formal budget process. 45 In October 2009, the Guinean government announced a $7 billion mining and infrastructure agreement with a Hong Kong-based firm, the China International Fund (CIF), in partnership with the Angolan state-owned conglomerate Sonangol.46 The deal was criticized by donors and the Guinean opposition. CIF also created a joint-venture agreement with the Australian company Bellzone for the export of iron ore. As of mid-2011, however, the CIF deal appeared to be inactive: Cond has reportedly stated that he does not support the concept of minerals-forinfrastructure deals, and that the terms agreed to in 2009 no longer apply.47
41
Reuters, Guinea Court Reclaims Friguia From RUSAL, September 10, 2009; Ria Novosti, Guinea Demands $430 Mln from Russias RusAl in Alumina Business Dispute, January 27, 2010. 42 EIU, Guinea: Country Report, September 2010. 43 EIU, Guinea: Country Report, September 2010; Reuters, Key Political Risks to Watch in Guinea, March 1, 2011. 44 David Winning, Rio and Guinea Settle Mine Fight, The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2011. 45 Stephane Barbier, Guineas Cond Fails to Push Anti-Corruption Drive, AFP, June 23, 2011.
46 While the CIF, which has been linked to multi-billion dollar deals in Angola and other African countries, is ostensibly a privately owned company, an investigative report released in July 2009 by the U.S.-China Economic & Security Review Commission found that key personnel have ties to Chinese state-owned enterprises and government agencies. USCC, The 88 Queensway Group. See also Africa-Asia Confidential, Blood and Money in the Streets: Chinas Business Ties to the Loathed Camara Junta Could Quickly Backfire, October 20, 2009; Christopher Bodeen, China-Guinea Deal Highlights Africa Business Ties, AP, October 24, 2009. 47 Africa Confidential, Guinea: Cond Drives a Hard Bargain, July 8, 2011.
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succeeded. In addition to perceived impunity from the law and lack of discipline, key factors seen as challenges associated with security sector reform include a lack of civilian control and oversight; an overweening size (Guineas military, estimated at over 30,000 personnel, is one of the regions largest despite a population of only 10 million); an undefined mandate; and the incomplete integration of irregular recruits.51
Drug Trafficking
Counternarcotics issues are a relatively recent area of concern to U.S. policy-makers, as Guinea, among other countries in the region, has emerged as a reported transshipment hub for cocaine en route from South America to Europe.52 Senior officials and members of the armed forces are believed by Guineans and the diplomatic community to have ties to the drug trade. 53 In June 2010, President Obama designated Ousmane Cont, a son of the late president, as a drug kingpin, freezing any U.S. assets held by Cont and prohibiting any transactions with him by persons subject to U.S. jurisdiction.54 Cont was arrested by the CNDD in February 2009, but he was released from detention in July 2010.55 Soon after taking power, Dadis Camara initiated populist moves to crack down on drug trafficking. These measures appeared designed to signal a break with the Cont regime, enhance the juntas popularity, and respond to international pressure. CNDD actions largely relied on the naming and shaming of alleged wrongdoers, rather than advancing institutional reform. At least 20 high-profile individuals, including top Cont officials, senior police officers, the former chief of the armed forces, and three sons and a brother-in-law of the late president were arrested in 2009 on drug trafficking allegations. Dadis Camara personally interrogated several alleged traffickers on national television, in some cases eliciting detailed confessions. While many Guineans welcomed the attempt to pursue powerful figures in the former regime, concerns arose over a lack of due process, and some arrests appeared to be politically selective. The CNDDs anti-drug efforts concentrated power in the presidency and sidelined civilian-led anti-drug agencies in favor of the military. Dadis Camara created a new agency, the State Secretariat for Special Services, to focus on drug and human trafficking, money laundering, and organized crime. A military officer, Moussa Tiegboro Camara, was appointed to head the agency, with a corps of gendarmes and soldiers for enforcement. The agencys legal mandate and authorities were not clearly defined, notably vis--vis the judiciary or police. This raised further
For further analysis on Guineas security sector, see CRS Report R41200, Guineas New Transitional Government: Emerging Issues for U.S. Policy, by Alexis Arieff. See also Joint Mission of ECOWAS, the AU, and the United Nations for Security Sector Reform in the Republic of Guinea, Rapport dvaluation du Secteur de la Scurit en Rpublique de Guine, May 2010; and ICG, Guinea: Reforming the Army, op. cit. 52 See CRS Report R40838, Illegal Drug Trade in Africa: Trends and U.S. Policy, by Liana Sun Wyler and Nicolas Cook. 53 Africa Confidential: Guinea: A Popular Putsch, So Far, January 23, 2009. 54 Cont, who had been imprisoned in Guinea on drug-related accusations since February 2009, was released by Guinean authorities in mid-July 2010. Further details on the scope of the kingpin designation, made under the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act (Title VIII, P.L. 106-120), are discussed in U.S. Treasury, Narcotics: What You Need to Know about U.S. Sanctions Against Drug Traffickers, July 15, 2010. 55 BBC Online, Guinea: Ex-Presidents Son Ousmane Conte Freed on Bail, July 16, 2010.
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due process and human rights concerns, and some troops participating in anti-drug efforts were accused of abuses of power. 56
Foreign Relations
The successful conduct of elections in 2010 has opened the way for Guinea to renew its relationships with donors and regional organizations. The 2008 coup caused Guineas membership in the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to be suspended; membership in both organizations has now been restored. Guineas membership in the Organization of Francophone Countries (OIF) has also been lifted. The International Contact Group on Guinea (ICG-G), an ECOWAS- and AU-led entity that was formed to coordinate international policy toward Guinea following the 2008 coup, was disbanded in mid-February 2011. Guinean-French relations, always significant, are set to become even closer, as Cond spent nearly 40 years in France and has close ties to key French leaders. Many donors, including the United States (see U.S. Relations) and the European Union (EU), suspended some bilateral assistance programs after the coup; these suspensions have now been largely lifted, although the resumption of full EU development cooperation is contingent on the holding of free and transparent legislative elections.57 Relations with Russia, a longtime diplomatic partner, were negatively affected during Dadis Camaras leadership by a dispute over rights to an aluminum refinery claimed by RusAl (see Recent Mining Sector Developments); there are some indications that the dispute may be resolved under the current government.58 Economic and diplomatic ties with China, another longtime partner, appear to be increasing, a continuing trend over the past several years. Saudi Arabia has also offered development aid.
The violent military crackdown of September 2009 also prompted attempts by donors to isolate members and key associates of the CNDD junta: the EU and AU announced targeted sanctions, and the EU, AU, and ECOWAS imposed an arms embargo. The United States announced targeted travel restrictions. The EU indicated in late 2010 that it would lift aid restrictions if the election was successful; the embargo is also reportedly likely to be lifted. However, targeted sanctions remain in place against a small number of individuals identified as perpetrators of serious abuses by the U.N. Commission of Inquiry into the September 2009 violence. 58 Africa Mining Intelligence, Conakry: Would-Be Suitors Eye Dian Dian Bauxite, February 16, 2011. 59 Taylor stepped down amid a rebel assault on Liberias capital, Monrovia, and is currently on trial in The Hague before the Special Court for Sierra Leone.
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returned to their countries of origin, although a new influx of refugees from Cte dIvoire has accompanied that countrys political crisis since late December 2010. Conts government forged close ties with President Laurent Gbagbo of Cte dIvoire and the late President Joo Bernardo Vieira of Guinea-Bissau. In 1998, Guinea and Senegal sent troops to Guinea-Bissau to support Vieira against a military mutiny, while Guinea-Bissau reportedly sent military reinforcements to support Cont during anti-government demonstrations in early 2007.60
U.S. Relations
The Obama Administration congratulated Guinea on the successful completion of its first democratic presidential election and congratulated Alpha Cond on his victory, stating hopes that it is only the first step on the road to democratic transition and civilian rule.61 President Obama also expressed appreciation for the way in which Cellou Dalein Diallo gracefully accepted the outcome of the election.62 President Cond, along with three other West African presidents, are expected to meet with President Obama in late July 2011. Prior to the 2008 coup, the United States maintained cordial relations with Guinea. The Administration condemned the coup and subsequently stated that the primary U.S. objective in Guinea was to assist peaceful, democratic change.63 In response to the September 2009 military crackdown, senior U.S. officials called for CNDD leaders to step down. The State Department also imposed targeted travel restrictions on certain members of the CNDD, members of the government, and key associates, and the U.S. Embassy in Conakry instituted a temporary ordered departure of staff.64 The U.S. Peace Corps program was suspended in October 2009; the program had previously been halted for six months in 2007 due to insecurity in connection with the January-February 2007 general strikes and anti-government protests. Peace Corps volunteers returned to Guinea in 2010. Following the formation of the transitional government in January, U.S. officials signaled approval of Interim President Konats leadership, and strongly praised the June elections as peaceful and historic.65 In August 2010, Konat was granted a diplomatic visa to visit the United States; however, the trip has yet to take place. The United States repeatedly called for elections to be held as scheduled, amid multiple delays, and condemned the violence that erupted in response to the November announcement of provisional results, calling on supporters of both candidates to remain calm and exercise legal forms of redress for election-related grievances. 66
60 For background on Guineas involvement in neighboring conflicts, see Arieff, Still Standing: Neighbourhood Wars and Political Stability in Guinea, Journal of Modern African Studies, 47, 3 (September 2009). 61 State Department, U.S. Statement on Alpha Conds Presidential Victory in Guinea, December 3, 2010. 62 AFP, Obama Congratulates Guinea on New Democratic Era, December 22, 2010. 63 FY2011 Congressional Budget Justification for Foreign Operations. 64 Adam Nossiter, U.S. Envoy Protests Violence in Guinea, The New York Times, October 7, 2009; U.S. Fed News, Guinea Violence Vile Violation of Human Rights, Clinton Says, October 9, 2009; Congressional Quarterly Transcript, Secretary of State Clinton Holds Press Conference with Pakistani Foreign Minister Qureshi, October 6, 2009; State Department, Guinea: Travel Restrictions, October 29, 2009. 65 AFP, Obama Calls for Peaceful Guinea Run-Off Vote, July 7, 2010; U.S. Embassy Conakry press statement, via Guineenews, July 8, 2010. 66 State Department, Post-Election Violence in Guinea [press release], November 17, 2010.
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U.S. Assistance
The Obama Administration stated in its FY2012 Congressional Budget Justification for Foreign Operations that U.S. assistance is focused on security sector reform, political consensusbuilding, good governance, and health interventions. U.S. bilateral aid was previously suspended for two years in response to the 2008 coup, with the exception of humanitarian and democracypromotion assistance. In practice, security assistance and limited environmental aid was suspended, while most other aid fit into permitted categories. While this policy broadly conformed to congressional directives included in annual appropriations legislation, congressionally mandated legal restrictions on assistance to post-coup governments were not triggered. 67 Election assistance, which was largely funded out of the Development Assistance account and exempted from the restriction, increased in FY2009. (Correspondingly, the Obama Administrations FY2012 Development Assistance request represents a decrease from FY2009 and FY2010 levels.) U.S. aid suspensions were lifted following the 2010 presidential election. The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2010 (Section 7070, Title VII, Division F of P.L. 111-117, signed into law on December 16, 2009) restricts International Military Education and Training (IMET) programs in Guinea to Expanded IMET (E-IMET), which emphasizes respect for human rights and civilian control of the military. This provision has been carried over in subsequent continuing appropriations legislation for the duration of FY2011.
67 The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2010 (P.L. 111-117, Title VII, Division F, Section 7008) bars direct assistance to the government of any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup or decree, with the exception of democracy promotion assistance. Such provisions, which have been included in annual appropriations legislation since at least 1985, are often referred to as Section 508 sanctions. However, the State Department determined that the December 2008 coup in Guinea did not trigger the provision because the deposed government had not been duly elected. (State Department response to CRS query, March 2010.) 68 CRS interview with State Department officials, July 2010.
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Prior to the 2008 coup, Guinea benefitted from IMET, Foreign Military Financing (FMF), Section 1206 programs, and other U.S. assistance aimed at enhancing security forces capabilities and professionalism. 69 Before aid was suspended, U.S. officials had informally planned a wide range of programs, many focusing on maritime security and counter-narcotics. In 2002, the United States trained an 800-person Guinean Ranger unit to shore up border security after Liberian-backed incursions in 2000-2001. Human rights concerns have periodically limited military training programs, and Congress has restricted IMET assistance in Guinea to Expanded IMET, which emphasizes human rights and civilian control of the military.70 Table 1. Selected Bilateral Aid by Account
($ thousands)
FY2007 DA GHCS USAID Food Aid (P.L. 480) IMET PKO INCLE Section 1206 5,800a 5,529 7,844 [Child Survival and Health] 4,093 331 0 0 FY2008 2,400 8,458 2,993 246 0 0 0b FY2009 2,576 8,200 2,501 0 0 100 0 FY2010 14,518 7,500 0 0 1,600 0 0 FY2011 (req.) 10,277 7,500 0 40 0 500 FY2012 (req.) 6,000 7,500 100 0 0 -
Source: State Department, Congressional Budget Justification for Foreign Operations, FY2009-FY2011 and Executive Budget Summary FY2012; CRS Report RS22855, Security Assistance Reform: Section 1206 Background and Issues for Congress, by Nina M. Serafino. Notes: DA=Development Assistance; GHCS=Global Health and Child Survival; IMET=International Military Education and Training; PKO=Peacekeeping Operations; INCLE=International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement; Section 1206=Defense Department funds authorized under Section 1206 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2006, as amended and regularly extended, for use in training and equipping foreign military and foreign maritime security forces for certain specific purposes. Disaggregated aid figures for FY2011 are not yet available. a. b. Guinea received a portion of a $5.8 million maritime security assistance that was divided among 15 countries. Guinea was initially intended to receive a portion of a $10.9 million regional maritime security package for FY2008, but its allocation was redirected after the 2008 military coup.
69 Section 1206 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2006 (P.L. 109-163), as amended and extended, provides the Secretary of Defense with authority to train and equip foreign military and foreign maritime security forces for counter-terrorism and other purposes. 70 Most recently, in the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2010 (P.L. 111-117, Division F, Title VII, Section 7070). These provisions were carried over in subsequent continuing appropriations legislation.
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Multilateral Aid
The IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bankall of which receive significant U.S. financial supportare currently renewing their loans, technical assistance, and grant programs in Guinea.71 Multilateral development assistance, concessional loans, and anti-poverty programs were halted by the coup. In 2009 the World Bank stopped disbursing roughly $200 million in outstanding loans designated for programs related to health, transportation, education, and other sectors, due to political uncertainty following the coup as well as Guineas subsequent failure to make sufficient payments on its existing loans.72 The International Monetary Fund-led Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, which was due to provide additional government financing in 2009, was likewise suspended.73
Outlook
Guinea is likely to continue to interest U.S. policymakers for its role in transnational security issues and regional stability, its economic potential, and its recent democratic transition. The 2010 elections were viewed as a success by the international community (though they were accompanied by significant domestic discord), and the countrys outlook has greatly improved from a year ago, when Guinea was beset by deep political uncertainty and fears of imminent civil conflict. However, the election period also exacerbated certain societal tensions and raised the stakes for the electoral victor. Inter-ethnic relationshistorically perceived as relatively harmonious in Guinea though subject to political manipulation and occasional violent confrontationhave deteriorated, and the full implications of recent violence have yet to be assessed. Newly elected president Alpha Cond faces tremendous expectations from Guineas impoverished population as well as vast challenges: the election did not alter the underlying causes of Guineas instability, notably economic stagnancy, dysfunctional or near-nonexistent institutions, and the militarys opaque structure and overweening size. A military backlash against attempted reforms and political disputes over the expected timeline and conduct of legislative elections could contribute to instability. The United States, which played a key role in Guineas political transition, is set to weigh further support for Guineas democratic and socio-economic development against other regional policies and priorities.
While the IMF and African Development Bank have announced new loan and grant programs, the full renewal of World Bank aid is contingent upon specific conditions, including required procedures for financial management, procurements and disbursements, as well as a report on corruption. Global Insight, World Bank Resumes Operations in Guinea, July 7, 2011. 72 Arieff interview with World Bank officials, May 2009 and February 2010. The World Bank classifies Guinea as one of the worlds 78 poorest countries, which qualifies Guinea for loans through the Banks International Development Association (IDA). IDA lends money (credits) on concessional terms, meaning that credits have no interest charge and repayments are stretched over 35 to 40 years, including a 10-year grace period. IDA also provides grants to countries at risk of debt distress. 73 The HIPC Initiative is a comprehensive approach to debt reduction for heavily indebted poor countries pursuing IMF- and World Bank-supported adjustment and reform programs. At the time of the coup, the program was on track. Reaching the HIPC completion point would grant Guinea an estimated relief of $2.2 billion and reduce debt service by approximately $100 million the first year (Arieff interview with IMF official, May 2009).
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Acknowledgments
Nicolas Cook, CRS Specialist in African Affairs, contributed to this report.
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