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OFFICE SNAPSHOT
WASHINGTON, D.C.
A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication
Q4 2012
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
The Washington Metropolitan Areas unemployment rate slipped to 5.2% in October, its lowest level since the end of 2008. The education/health services sector and the leisure/hospitality sector remained the engines of employment growth, adding nearly 20,000 jobs combined. Officeusing employment is forecast to end the year with an additional 6,500 jobs, representing a modest 0.9% gain. The Districts unemployment rate also reached a four-year low, dropping to 8.4%. While there are some firms expanding (Allen & Overy) or entering the market for the first time (Linklaters LLP and Drexel University), LivingSocial recently announced plans to lay off up to 400 employees, about 40% of those in the District. Earlier in the year, the tech giant negotiated a $32.5-million tax incentive package contingent upon keeping its headquarters in the District and adding 1,000 jobs over a four-year period. While long-term plans remain unclear, LivingSocial has announced that it will begin to sublease some of its space in the East End submarket.
The Districts overall vacancy rate has crept up steadily since the middle of 2011, to 13.0% currently, a 1.1 percentage point increase during 2012. Class A vacancy rates experienced some ups and downs throughout the year, but ended essentially flat at 14.7%. Overall absorption closed the year at negative 566,844 sf, due mainly to weakness in class B and class C properties. Class A direct absorption was flat in the Core markets of the CBD and East End, with positive absorption in the CBD washing out negative absorption in the East End. While total square feet leased in the Non-core markets dropped by 46% from last years level, occupancies by tenants which signed STATS ON THE GO
Q4 2011 Overall Vacancy Direct Asking Rents (psf/yr) YTD Leasing Activity (sf) 11.9% $50.63 4,847,048 Q4 2012 13.0% $51.58 5,151,572 Y-O-Y 12 MONTH CHANGE FORECAST 1.1pp 1.9% 6.3%
LEASING ACTIVITY
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
msf
5.2
4.5
5.8
4.8
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
LEASING ACTIVITY
For more information, contact: Paula Munger, Regional Research Director 703 448 1200 paula.munger@cushwake.com
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2013 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
5.2
leases last year, such as the Federal Housing Finance Agency and McDermott Will & Emery LLP, resulted in positive absorption in class A properties of about 388,000 sf. Another bright spot in the D.C. market was the absorption of space vacated by dissolved law firms. While the former Howrey space at 1299 Pennsylvania Ave. NW remained a drag on vacancy rates for over a year, a steady stream of leases throughout the year absorbed some of the excess space. Cooley, LLP signed leases totaling nearly 88,000 sf while Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan, LLP took about 15,000 sf. Some of the former Dewey & LeBoeuf, LLP space at 1101 New York Ave. NW did not stay on the market very long. Allen & Overy took 53,343 sf, and the National Retail Federation leased 31,091 sf , both completed during the fourth quarter.
manager, purchased 2175 K St. NW for $86.4 million, $633 psf. Deka expects to increase its holdings in the area over the next twelve months, given D.C.s stability and prospects for strong growth. Although the fiscal cliff was averted as it relates to tax cuts, the debate over the Federal debt ceiling and automatic budget cuts will continue over the coming months, prolonging the uncertainty in the marketplace. Until fundamentals bottom out and start improving, many investors will remain cautious. Approximately $2.0 billion of transactions were marketed but did not close in 2012 due to gaps in buyer and seller price expectations. Part of the buyer/seller gap is based on the underwriting of short-term rent growth and lower renewal rents than in-place rents. Still, The D.C. market will present some good opportunities in 2013 for investors who can wait for 2-3 years for stronger fundamentals. Development meets the 3-5 year horizons and should continue to generate strong interest, while the commodity office product will continue to lag behind.
OUTLOOK
2013 began with Congress and the Administration reaching an agreement on the Bush-era tax cuts, and the financial markets responded accordingly. The good news is that consumers will have more cash in their pockets which, coupled with the fact that many households have already pared down their debts, bodes well for increased consumer spending. The bad news is that the uncertainty surrounding Federal budget cuts was not alleviated, as those discussions were put off for two months while another deal is attempted. U.S. GDP growth for 2013 is now forecast at 2.0%, the same level as 2012, with the first half of the year particularly slow due to this fiscal drag. As some of these uncertainties lift, private sector growth is expected to be stronger during the second half of the year due to strong corporate profits finally being put to work for growth initiatives, low interest rates, and improving credit conditions. Employment is still expected to increase in the D.C. Metro region in 2013, but at a much slower pace, with about half the jobs expected to be created as in 2012. Office-using employment is forecast to remain flat, with healthier growth returning in 2014. The District office market is expected to witness more of the same in 2013, that is, increasing vacancy rates due to continued downsizing by tenants, lackluster leasing activity, and decreases in rents. There are, of course, exceptions just as there were over the past year with some properties achieving high occupancy rates and solid longer-term rent growth. WASHINGTON D.C. OFFICE FORECAST ALL CLASSES
$55.00 $53.00 psf/yr $51.00 $49.00 $47.00 $45.00 2011 2012 2013 F 2014 F 2015 F
OVERALL GROSS RENTAL RATE
Cushman & Wakefield of Washington D.C,, Inc. 2001 K Street NW Washington, DC 20006 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
For more information, contact: Paula Munger, Regional Research Director 703 448 1200 paula.munger@cushwake.com
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2013 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
EAST END
At 10.9%, direct vacancy is at its highest level on record, increasing by 1.6 percentage points year-over-year. With just under 550,000 sf of negative overall net absorption, East End accounted for nearly all negative overall net absorption in D.C. in 2012. A flux of space returned to market this year, including McDermott Will & Emerys departure for NoMa this quarter, leaving over 230,000 sf vacant at 600 13th Street NW. Average direct asking rental rates have remained relatively flat year-over-year at $55.20. Class A direct asking rates increased by 1.6% from the end of 2011 to $63.88 psf with a large amount of trophy-quality space available.
CBD
Vacancy has leveled off in the fourth quarter after increasing over most of 2012. Still, at 12.0%, overall vacancy is up by 1.7 percentage points from the end of 2011. Average direct asking rental rates remain persistently high, increasing by 4.5% year-over-year. Vacant blocks of quality space have kept the average up, including 178,000 sf at 2099 Pennsylvania Avenue NW where rates are up to $65.00 psf triple net. 1000 Connecticut Avenue NW, the only new construction to deliver in 2012, completed in the second quarter and is now nearly 100% leased with Bain and Company recently signing for 20,000 sf.
msf
RENEWAL ACTIVITY
SOUTHWEST
Just over 400,000 sf of new leases were signed in Southwest this year, a 63% decrease from last years activity level. One lease alone accounted for the majority of activity as the GSA consolidated three agencies in 372,299 sf at Constitution Center. Overall vacancy remained relatively unchanged from this time last year, increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 17.2%. The average direct asking rent is beginning to contract, declining by 3.1% yearover-year to $51.91 psf. Five buildings traded hands in Southwest this year, including Constitution Center (400 7th Street SW) which sold in the fourth quarter to MetLife and Clarion Partners for $734,000,000, the highest overall price paid for a single asset in DC.
RENEWAL ACTIVITY
Cushman & Wakefield of Washington D.C,, Inc. 2001 K Street NW Washington, DC 20006 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
For more information, contact: Paula Munger, Regional Research Director 703 448 1200 paula.munger@cushwake.com
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2013 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.
WASHINGTON, D.C.
SUBMARKET INVENTORY OVERALL VACANCY RATE 11.1% 11.8% 13.7% 11.6% 10.0% 17.2% 16.7% DIRECT VACANCY RATE 10.6% 10.9% 12.0% 9.9% 6.1% 16.6% 16.1% YTD LEASING ACTIVITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION / RENOVATION 814,555 530,413 318,278 0 0 0 0 YTD CONSTRUCTION/ RENOVATION COMPLETIONS 229,112 0 594,325 0 0 0 0 YTD DIRECT NET ABSORPTION YTD OVERALL NET ABSORPTION OVERALL WTD. AVG ALL CLASSES GROSS RENTAL RATE* 13,687 (650,222) 5,406 68,389 37,067 19,555 (13,718) (16,007) (547,124) (11,344) 52,906 (28,857) (5,700) (10,718) $46.92 $54.31 $51.61 $42.50 $36.35 $51.38 $44.06 DIRECT WTD. AVG. CLASS A GROSS RENTAL RATE* $57.78 $63.88 $64.16 $57.30 $48.91 $54.82 $47.53
Capitol Hill / NoMa East End CBD West End / Georgetown Uptown Southwest Capitol Riverfront
TOTALS
106,612,805 13.0%
11.8%
5,151,572
1,663,246
823,437
(519,836)
(566,844)
$50.60
$61.55
TENANT U.S. Department of State U.S. Department of Justice Covington & Burling LLP Arnold & Porter LLP Federal Trade Commission/National Endowment for the Arts/National Endowment for the Humanities Intelsat (Sale-leaseback) U.S. General Services Administration U.S. Small Business Administration State Services Organization Federal Trade Commission (Short-term Extension) BUYER MetLife / Clarion Partners 601W Companies U.S. General Services Administration The Museum of the Bible The Museum of the Bible MAJOR TENANT Arent Fox McDermott Will & Emery LLP MAJOR TENANT Covington & Burling LLP N/A
3400 International Drive 1800 G Street NW* 409 3rd Street SW* 400-444 North Capitol Street NW* 601 New Jersey Avenue NW*
Uptown CBD Southwest Capitol Hill / NoMa Capitol Hill / NoMa SUBMARKET Southwest Uptown West End / Georgetown Southwest Southwest SUBMARKET CBD Capitol Hill / NoMa SUBMARKET East End Capitol Hill / NoMa
A C A B A PURCHASE PRICE / $PSF $734,000,000/$526 $85,000,000/$155 $99,594,779 / $195 $200,000,000/$476 $50,000,000 / $128 COMPLETION DATE Q2 2012 Q4 2012 COMPLETION DATE Q3 2013 Q4 2013
350,237 294,000 254,267 237,848 217,308 SQUARE FEET 1,396,147 549,000 511,500 420,122 391,000 BUILDING SQUARE FEET 370,545 229,112 BUILDING SQUARE FEET 462,507 399,996
Cushman & Wakefield of Washington D.C,, Inc. 2001 K Street NW Washington, DC 20006 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
For more information, contact: Paula Munger, Regional Research Director 703 448 1200 paula.munger@cushwake.com
The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. 2013 Cushman & Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved.