Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
China to Start Selling Cotton from Monday
China has finalized the selling of cotton reserves from Monday to meet demand from domestic textile companies. The price at which the selling is to be done is slightly lower than domestic prices but 25-30% higher than international prices. Approx. 3 million tons of cotton reserve is expected to be sold, by China. The prices might show improvement as imports are also likely to go up as domestic prices in China are higher than domestic cotton so traders can leverage their position. (Source:
Agriwatch)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Jan 15, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19987 6057 54.61 93.28 1683

0.40 0.54 0.15 -0.91 0.87

1.24 0.91 -0.65 0.14 1.32

3.86 3.39 -0.46 6.97 -0.80

23.46 24.27 6.31 #N/A #N/A

.Source: Reuters

Govt may increase import duty on edible oils, export more wheat
The government is considering increasing the import duty on edible oils to give a fillip to domestic crushing and protect the interest of growers. It is also considering allowing the export of more wheat to clear stocks ahead of the new procurement season. The decisions in this regard were taken at ahigh- level meeting between Finance Minister PChidambaram, Food Minister K V Thomas and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar. A Cabinet note on all the decisions will be moved soon, a senior government official said. (Source: Business
Standard)

Fresh purchases heat up groundnut oil

Groundnut oil and cotton oil moved up on Tuesday following fresh buying by repackers and manufacturers of branded oils. However, the retail demand was below normal. According to market sources, prices of both edible oils may gain in the coming days as supply is weak due to shortage of raw material for crushing. A Rajkot miller said that arrivals of groundnut have been poor so far this year and groundnut production is estimated lower. Trading is at a low key as traders and shelling units are protesting against new export rules, he said. (Source: Business Line)

U.S. Loses Korea Corn Sales to Brazil on Drought-Driven Rally

Shipments of American corn tumbled to a seven-year low of 2.84 million metric tons last year, from 6.02 million tons in 2011, according to data on the Korea Customs Services website today. Imports from Brazil jumped to 1.96 million tons from 122,704 tons, while purchases from Argentina rose to 1.08 million tons from 1,957 tons, the data show. Korean buyers last year shunned U.S. supplies because of the price surge triggered by the drought, and, coincidently, Latin America had a bumper crop, Lee Tae Woong, a deputy general manager at Nonghyup Feed Inc., the nations biggest feed-grain buyer said. (Source: Bloomberg)

Now, 20% special margin on potato contracts, to curb price volatility

The Forward Markets Commission (FMC), the commodity derivatives market regulator, has levied a 20 per cent special margin on the buy side on all potato contracts, effective today, to control a sudden price spurt in the vegetable. With this levy, the overall margin on the long side goes up to 30 per cent from the existing normal margin of 10 per cent, while the short side margin remains unchanged at 10 per cent. Potato contracts for near month delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange rose 11.4 per cent in the past 10 days due to extreme change in the weather and the resulting fear of crop loss this year. Supply to mandis was also hit by a shortage of transport and labourers in farms and the markets. In the spot market, too, prices rose 15 per cent in the past two weeks. (Source: Business
Standard)

Nodal agency to clear Basmati exports to Mauritius

Post Mauritius' concerns on adulterated Basmati eing exported by India, the commerce ministry has nominated the Export Inspection Council as the nodal agency, which will issue a Certificate of Authenticity for all Basmati rice exports to Mauritius. The EIC is also in the process of drafting an MoU in this regard, which will be signed by the EIC and Mauritius government. New Delhi, in fact, is quite keen to extend any assistance with regard to meeting requirements of Mauritius for rice as Basmati rice is a unique geographical indication product under the WTO. The development comes a day after foreign investors, especially those from Mauritius, got a breather from the finance ministry that deferred the General Anti-Avoidance Rules by two years. (Source: Financial Express)

IMD launches App for weather forecasts

Next time you plan to board a flight from Chennai to Delhi in the winters, you can check for fog on India Weather, a mobile application (App) launched on Tuesday by India Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMDs App is meant for smartphones and tablets and can be downloaded through Google Play Store. To begin with, the App is available in four metros Delhi, Chennai, Mumbai and Kolkata and will offer current weather observations along with four-day forecasts. The App will be later extended to other parts of the country. Launching the App as part of the th celebrations of IMDs 138 foundation day here, Union Minister for Science & Technology and Earth Sciences Jaipal Reddy said reliability of monsoon forecast was key to ensuring food security, and added that there was need to focus attention on predicting extreme weather elements, which had become quite common. (Source: Business Line)

USDA launches micro loan program for small farmers

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a new program on Tuesday to help small farming operations, including those run by minority or socially disadvantaged farmers, improve their access to credit. The program, administered through USDA's Farm Service Agency, will offer various loans of up to $35,000 for terms of up to seven years to help recipients deal with farming's often prohibitive start-up costs. (Source:
Reuters)

Indian tea delegation puts off visit to Pakistan

The present tension along the India-Pakistan border and the consequent developments have cast a shadow over Indian Tea Associations plan to take a tea delegation to Pakistan. The situation, it is felt, is not conducive to undertaking such a tour. We propose to take the delegation in March and hopefully the tension will ease by that time, Arun N. Singh, Chairman of ITA, told Business Line. Weve already written to the Tea Board in this regard. Pakistan has emerged a major buyer of India tea, particularly the cheap South Indian variety. In 2011, India exported 25 million kgs to Pakistan, the highest ever, and the figure for 2012 is estimated at 21 mkgs or so. (Source: Business Line)

UK wheat imports surpass one million tonnes

UK wheat imports surpassed one million tonnes during the first five months of the 2012/13 season, exceeding the total for the entire previous marketing year, customs data showed on Tuesday. Imports had soared this season after a poor wheat crop in Britain with yields slumping to a 23-year low and quality hurt by high diseases levels. Wheat imports in November totalled 225,262 tns, of which 200,957 tns came from within the European Union. The cumulative total for the 2012/13 season, which started on July 1, 2012, rose to 1.04 mn tns, almost triple the 366,636 tns shipped in the same period a year earlier. Imports for the whole 2011/12 season were 907,032 tns. (Source: Reuters)

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana January contract as well as spot prices witnessed downward trend on Tuesday and settled 1.24% and 0.89% lower respectively on account of continuous rise in imports which is easing supplies in the domestic markets coupled with higher output expectations for the coming season. However, April contract settled 0.4% higher on short coverings. Although chana prices witnessed 17% gains in 2012 on the back of lower availability, sentiments have turned negative since December 2012 on account of continuous supplies of imported chana from Australia coupled with higher output expectations.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3947 3989 Prev day -0.89 -1.24

as on Jan 15, 2013 % change WoW MoM -1.49 -2.31 -1.85 -2.71 YoY 14.14 14.99

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Jan'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Sowing progress
Total pulses acreage as on 11th Jan 2013 stood at 140.87 lakh ha, up by th 0.4% yoy. As on 4 Jan 2013, pulses acreage was down by 0.4%. Chana sowing is almost complete and acreage so far is at 91.68 lakh ha, up by 5.4% as on 11th Jan. Chana acreage is marginally higher by 3% this year in Rajasthan at 14.80 th lakh ha, In Maharashtra Chana acreage is up at 10.92 lakh ha as on 11 Jan 2013 vs normal area of 10.6 lakh ha and 2012 area of 7.04 lakh ha. th While in AP it is up at 7.14 lakh ha as on 11 Jan 2013, up by 26%. (Source: State farm dept)

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX April contract

Demand supply fundamentals

Chana fresh crop arrival has started in Karnataka & Andhra Pradesh and would pick up soon in Maharashtra too. However, arrival pressure will built up February onwards when harvesting commence in MP. Farm ministry has targeted 7.9 mn tn Chana output for 2012-13 season, higher compared to 7.58 mn tn in 2011-12. According to the first advance estimates of 2012-13 season, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. The Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) has suggested 10 per cent import duty on pulses to encourage domestic production. in the first six months of the new fiscal that is from April to September this year, imports were an estimated 12 lakh tonnes. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Jan 16, 2013 Resistance 3525-3550

3450-3475

Trade Scenario
USDA revealed that Myanmar beans and pulses export is up by 56 per cent to 110498 MT as compared with same period in last year. Out of the total export, 73 percent (80721 MT) was exported to India followed by Singapore (11316 MT). (Source: Agriwatch dated Dec 27) In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record of around 746000 tones as compared with 485000 tons in 2011-12. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

Outlook
Chana April contract may trade with a negative bias due to higher shipments of imported chana and expectations of better output next season. Any adverse report with respect to weather may bring a rebound in the prices and thus a close watch on weather is crucial at this point of time.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures witnessed marginal losses in the futures markets, however, have started showing some signs of recovery in the physical market as demand is seen emerging at lower levels. Also report of lower cane planting is seen supporting an upside in the sugar prices. There are reports that drought in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka has hurt fresh sugarcane plantings, which may affect cane availability for sugar year 2013-14 starting October. Although this will have long term implications, outlook for short term remains bleak amid sufficient supplies. Government has allocated total 70 lac tons of non-levy sugar quota for Dec-March 2012-13 period which is higher from 59.5 lac tons last year. Raw sugar futures on ICE as well as Liffe white sugar corrected sharply extending previous days losses and settled 1.12% and 1.48% lower on Tuesday on account of a supply glut situation on the back of a sugar surplus for the third consecutive year.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Jan'13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3253

as on Jan 15, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.10 0.57 MoM -2.37 YoY 10.84

Rs/qtl

3228

0.09

0.56

0.88

13.86

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMar'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 502 413.78

as on Jan 15, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.12 -1.48 -0.75 -0.27 MoM -1.22 -1.38 YoY -20.15 -21.96

Domestic Production and Exports

Mills in the country have produced 7.96 mln tn sugar in the first three months of the season, up nearly 2.5% a year ago. In Maharashtra, the largest sugar producer in the country, 155 mills are operational and have produced 1.88 mln tn sugar till Dec 15, compared with 1.83 mln produced a year ago by 165 mills. In Uttar Pradesh, the second largest sugar producer in the country, total output as on Dec 15 was 1.03 mln tn, about 20% lower on year, as some mills in the eastern part of the state are still to commence cane crushing. The producers body has estimated sugar output lower at 24 mn tn, down by 2mn tn compared to the current year. Industry body ISMA has estimated 6.5 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 1.5 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.5 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5mln tn for 2012-13.

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Feb contract

Source: Telequote

Global Sugar Updates

According to the Brazil Agriculture Ministry, The 2012/13 cane crush was at 531.35 million tonnes as of Dec. 31, up from 491.16 million tonnes crushed the previous year. The 2013/14 crush will likely surpass the current one. Brazil's main center-south cane crop will produce between 580 million and 590 million tonnes of sugar cane in 2013/14. Brazil will likely favor ethanol production over sugar from the 2013/14 cane crop. The 2012/13 sugar crop in Thailand, the world's second-biggest exporter, could drop below a forecast 9.4 million tonnes due to lower-thanexpected yield. The crushing season started on Nov. 15 and 1.9 million tonnes of sugar has been produced so far (Source: Reuters)

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Feb NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Jan 16, 2013 Resistance 3265-3280

3230-3245

Outlook
Sugar prices may recover further in the coming weeks as demand is seen emerging at lower levels. Reports of lower cane planting in some parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka may also bring some stability in the prices. Further, it is expected that government will take some measure to control prices, which are below the cost of production levels, from falling further so as to protect the interest of the millers.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean futures extended the gains of the previous
session on account of dwindling supplies in the domestic markets coupled with firmness in the international markets backed by China's fourth-largest purchase of U.S. soybeans in two weeks. Arrivals in the domestic markets declined to 1.5 lakh bags, while demand is comparatively lower amid crushing disparity. According to first advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 126.2 lakh tn for 2012-13. Soy meal exports fell by 34% in December to 5.10 lakh tn, according to SOPA. The country had exported 7,78,382 tn in December 2011. During the first three months of the current oil year (Oct-Sep), exports declined by 27% to 10.78 lakh tn.
Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Jan '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Jan '13 Futures

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3239 3200 743.8 737.8

as on Jan 15, 2013 % Change Prev day 0.90 0.46 0.65 0.55 WoW 1.41 2.83 3.79 4.03 MoM -4.31 -4.41 1.52 1.70 YoY 32.26 28.39 4.73 3.86

International Markets
Soybean futures on the CBOT corrected from higher levels yesterday and settled 0.32% lower on profit booking. Prices have gained earlier this week on account of higher exports to a single destination in one day. By law, exporters must report promptly the sale of 100,000 tonnes or more of a commodity to the same destination in one days. Sales of smaller amounts are reported on a weekly basis. Argentina soy planting advanced quickly in the last week to cover more than 90% of the targeted 19.7 mn ha. The next harvest will come in March and is projected by the govt at 55 mn tn or higher, depending on the weather. According to the USDA monthly crop report, Brazil will produce a record 82.5 mn tn of soybeans in 2012-13 due to hefty expansion in acreage and improving yield prospects. With the harvest just beginning in some areas, Brazil's planted area will likely increase by 9.2 percent to 27.34 mn ha.
International Prices Soybean- CBOTJan'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTJan'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1414 50.87 Prev day -0.32 0.83 WoW -0.44 3.31

Source: Reuters

as on Jan 15, 2013 MoM -4.27 4.63

Source: Reuters

YoY 19.43 0.93

Crude Palm Oil

as on Jan 15, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 2.37 1.03 1.61 -2.15

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Jan '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Jan '13 Futures

Last 2330 432.8

MoM 14.10 5.43

YoY -27.07 -18.28

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil and MCX CPO remained firm on
Tuesday on account of firm international markets. According to Intertek Testing Services, Malaysias Jan 1-15 palm oil exports declined 20.7% from 5,70,510 tn from 7,19,817 tn during Dec 115.Although exports remain weak despite change in export duty structure, market expects exports to pick up as the Malaysian board has kept export duty Zero for February too. Indias palm oil imports rose 27.4 percent in December from the previous month. MPOB data released on Thursday revealed further increase in stock piles by 2.4% in December, while exports declined 0.7% in December. Malaysian crude palm oil production this year will rise marginally to 18.9 million tonnes compared to 18.8 million tonnes in 2012 as yields improve, an industry regulator said on Monday. output is still lagging far behind that of top supplier Indonesia where production is expected to hit 27 million tonnes this year.

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Jan'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4300 4228 Prev day 2.14 0.28

as on Jan 15, 2013 WoW 1.42 0.96 MoM 1.84 4.68

Source: Reuters

YoY 21.21 12.57

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Feb contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard seed April Futures witnessed short

coverings on Tuesday and settled 0.29% higher. Rabi oilseeds sowing which was up by 1.3% as on Dec 28, is now up by 3% at 8.4 mn ha as of Jan. 4. Arrivals are expected to commence in February and thus no major upside in the prices is seen. Rapeseed area stood at 6.62 mn ha as of Jan. 11, up by 3.5% from a year ago. Rapeseed output is expected to rise by 5% to 6.5 mn tn from 6 mn tn last year.

Outlook
Soybean complex may recover from lower levels due to short coverings at lower levels. Mustard seed prices may decline further on likely higher output and expectations of arrivals to commence soon. CPO may trade lower due to higher ending stocks with Malaysia. Malaysia has set export tax at 0% for the month of February

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Feb NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Feb Futures RM Seed NCDEX Apr Futures CPO MCX Jan Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Jan 16, 2013 Support 700-706 3140-3175 3400-3430 425-429 Resistance 714-718 3255-3300 3490-3525 437-442

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded on a bullish note yesterday due to low stocks and thin supplies. Good winter demand also supported the prices. Prices have also increased over the last few days due to arrivals of good quality pepper from Kerala. Earlier, prices had corrected as Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 5,000 tonnes. Harvesting of the fresh crop has commenced and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days. However, winter demand coupled with low stocks in the domestic markets has supported prices at lower levels. FMC is probing into complaints against movement in the pepper market which has pressurized prices. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is also weak due to price parity. The Spot settled as well as the Futures settled 0.42% and 2.57% higher on Tuesday. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $7,800/tn(C&F Europe). Vietnam and Indonesia Austa variety are quoted at $7,000/tn and Malaysia Austa reported at $6950-7000/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Feb'13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 38644 36955 % Change Prev day 0.42 2.57

as on Jan 15, 2013 WoW 1.66 6.38 MoM 0.06 -5.44 YoY 22.56 20.75

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Feb contract

Exports and Imports

According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of pepper during Jan-Oct 2012 stood at 102,340 mt, lower by 12% as compared to 1,15,780 mt in the same period last year. Total exports in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,10,000 tonnes. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 26% during January-September 2012 period to 41,923 tn as compared to 52,489 tn in the same period previous year. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Feb Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Jan 16, 2013 Support 36340-36690 Resistance 37350-37700

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 21 tonnes while off takes were reported at 20 tonnes on Tuesday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to previous estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Currently, pepper is in the fruit formation stage in Kerala.

Outlook
Pepper prices are expected to rise on account of low stocks coupled with thin arrivals. Winter buying coupled with arrivals of good quality crop may also support prices. However, increasing supplies coupled with higher output expectations may cap sharp gains. FSSAIs sealing of huge quantity of pepper and FMCs probe into complaints against price movement may also pressurise the prices.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings coupled with fresh enquiries at lower levels. Prices have corrected sharply and made fresh lows on account of higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region. Sowing is almost complete and is in its final stage. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.244 lakh ha till Jan, 2013 compared with 3.64 lakh ha last year. In Rajasthan, sowing is expected to increase by 10-15%. The spot settled 0.6% lower while the Futures settled 1.34% higher on Tuesday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,875-2,900 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 5-6 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Mar '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 14255 13828 Prev day -0.60 1.34

as on Jan 15, 2013 % Change WoW -2.34 -4.75 MoM -4.89 -5.40 YoY -11.01 -11.90

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX March contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 2,500 tn on Tuesday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected around 40 lakh bags as against 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (55 kgs each). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day 0.00 -1.08

as on Jan 15, 2013 % Change

Outlook
Jeera prices may trade on a mixed note. Fresh export enquiries may limit a sharp downside. Demand from domestic traders and millers at lower levels may also support prices. However, higher sowing figures in Gujarat may pressurize prices. In the medium term, prices are likely to stay firm as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey.
Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures

Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5693 6566

WoW -1.03 -4.54

MoM 10.07 23.65

YoY 10.16 40.90

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures corrected yesterday on account of long liquidation due to huge carryover stocks.. Good demand from upcountry market has supported the prices over the last few weeks. Lower production estimates have also supported the prices. Also, arrivals of good quality crop have supported prices. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. Production is expected around 55 lakh bags. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. There are reports that Turmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own MSP of Rs.10000/qtl. The Spot remained closed on account of Pongal and Makar Sankranti while the Futures settled 1.08% lower on Tuesday.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX April contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

The spot markets remained closed on account of Pongal festival. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 64-65 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric may correct from higher levels in the intraday extending previous days losses. Higher carryover stocks and weak overseas demand may pressurize prices. However, demand from stockists and weather concerns may support prices. Lower production expectations may also support prices.
.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX March Futures Turmeric NCDEX April Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Jan 16, 2013

Support 13400-13620 6420-6500 Resistance 14000-14210 6670-6750

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| January 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton witnessed short coverings and settled 0.65% and 0.37% higher on Tuesday. Prices had declined considerably in the past few weeks on account of lower demand and higher output expectations. However, demand is expected to pick up at lower levels to meet the cotton yarn export registrations. Registration for exports of cotton yarn has hit the highest in at least two years on burgeoning demand from Indias perennially importing countries i.e. Bangladesh and China. Although, Cotton advisory Board has pegged cotton output lower at 334 lakh bales, Cotton Association of India (CAI), expects output to be around 353 lakh bales in 2012-13.. According to the data released by Cotton Corporation of India, Supplies until Jan 13 are down 6.3 percent to 12.5 mn bales of 170 kg each, down from 12.9 mn bales a year earlier. Arrivals were down by 10 percent as th on 16 Dec. ICE Cotton traded on a positive note on account of index buying. Concerns about the quality of cotton to be released by China also pulled up the prices. ICE cotton Futures settled 0.91% higher on Tuesday.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 922.5 16310

as on Jan 15, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW MoM 0.65 -2.28 -10.78 0.37 -0.85 -0.85 YoY #N/A -10.14

NCDEX Kapas Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 76.21 81.35

as on Jan 15, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.91 1.45 0.00 0.00 MoM 1.75 0.00 YoY -22.39 -29.20

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) estimates (4 Oct 2012) for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 334 lakh bales, down 5.6% from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. Lower opening stocks coupled with estimated lower output will result in lower supplies this season at 374 lakh bales, a decline of 8.7% compared with last years 410.77 lakh bales. On the consumption front, domestic consumption is estimated higher at 270 lakh bales on the back of higher mill consumption. However, after witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 70 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Jan contract

Global Cotton Updates

China, the world's biggest buyer of cotton, began selling a tiny fraction of its massive stockpile of the fibre on Monday, in a move to ease domestic supply shortages. Beijing has been building a strategic stockpile of cotton since 2011, paying above global prices to support its farmers, but the policy has hurt China's textile mills, which have been struggling with tight supplies, and high prices, at home. Many in the industry were expecting China to reward mills that buy state reserves with new import quotas enabling them to buy cheaper overseas supplies. But no such deal was announced. Brazils 2012-13 cotton production forecast at 6.3 million bales, down 27 percent from 2011/12 production now estimated at 8.6 million bales. (USDA attach report)

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade downwards today. Higher output expectations by Cotton Association of India have turned the sentiments negative for the cotton prices. However, downside may be limited as farmers may not sell their stocks at lower prices. Reports that the Government may purchase cotton from farmers to avoid distress sales may also support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX Jan Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Jan 16, 2013 Support 910-917 16200-16250 Resistance 928-935 16350-16400

www.angelcommodities.com