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Stowe Boyd, Work Talk Research with foreword by Gerd Leonhard, The Futures Agency
Gerd Leonhard
The overlap of social media and TV represents a huge oppor tunity for those that truly understand and internalize, embrace and partake in these changes, and that welcome this dawning networked, interdependent and manyto-many society.
By no means the rise of social TV and the second screen means that the TV business as we knew it until the astronomic rise of tablets and mobile content devices is actually safer from the utter disruptions of the mobile-digital age that we have witnessed in the music industry, for example; as clueless as musics leaders may have proven to be. But as the TV industry is probably a bit closer to its users and viewers, as it is more technology-savvy and arguably slightly less monopolistic and more attuned to what the people formerly known as audience actually want, rather than what they are told to want. This rapidly accelerating Internet-TV convergence might turn out to be TVs saving grace. Social TV and second screen business models are only the rst real embodiment of this Web-TV
Social TV and second screen business models are only the first real embodiment of this WebTV convergence, and therefore they will bring up all of the tough issues inherent in any kind of convergence.
convergence, and therefore they will bring up all of the tough issues inherent in any kind of convergence: who is allowed to do this or that, when and where, how will new revenue streams be invented and realized (as traditional revenues may decline or at least fragment), who will be the gatekeepers, when and where, and so on. Food-chain conicts, galore. To me, it looks like we are moving towards an era of utter interdependence rather than continued or increased independence. The future is probably highly collaborative, uid and organic, or it just wont happen, at all. Collaborate or die. Social media is not a better mousetrap, and social tools are not convenient g leaves that largely asocial corporations can hide behind. Rather, we are now entering the age of the Social Operating System, of the mobile-centric user and prosumer. An age where interactivity, peer-to-peer exchange, transparency and openness matter a lot more than what brand your TV is, or what channel your show is on, for that matter. This is good news for everyone, I believe. In the spirit of Gaston Berger who said the purpose of talking about the future is to disturb the presentI hope that you enjoy this white paper and spread it as far as it will go.
Stowe Boyd
The transition to a multidevice user experience allowing timesliced TV viewing and socializing is the single most revolutionary aspect of social TV.
is the single most revolutionary aspect of social TV. And, as it turns out, more time is spent looking at the other screens than watching the TV, which changes everything. This shift from TV content as the center of the television world, to a supporting role in a social TV era lines up with Kevin Kellys observation, that The central economic imperative of the new economy is to amplify relationships. And what is happening in the transition to social TV can be viewed as a shift to a new economy, and how that is manifested in the new form factor of social TV. Before we can get into the whys and wherefores of social TV, though, its probably useful to step back and reect a bit on the social revolution that has taken place online in the past ten years, to set the context for the maelstrom that TV is headed for.
The central economic imperative of the new economy is to amplify relationships. - Kevin Kelly
The biggest surprise about the webs growth may be the degree to which it is dominated by people socializing.
metaphor based on the representation of a stream of updates carrying information to the social tool user. One aspect of streaming is the concept that users can follow others, and then those others updates
The open follower model has become the dominant social motif on the web today, and as a result plays a large role in shaping the cultural mores that underlie the foundation of sociality online, and in the emerging web culture of those who are increasingly habituated to the form factors of the social web.
text, photos, bookmarks, check-ins, whatever stream from those followed to those following. And, in many social tools, such as Twitter, this following is open: that means that as a default, anyway a user can follow any other user without having to get permission from the followed. The open follower model has become the dominant social motif on the web today, and as a result plays a large role in shaping the cultural mores that underlie the foundation of sociality online, and in the emerging web culture of those who are increasingly habituated to the form factors of the social web. The adoption of social tools has been paralleled by two other major trends: the development of todays high bandwidth data networks and low cost broadband has led to an always on state of affairs in the advanced economies that underlie the explosive growth of mobile, and the emergence of extremely capable, GPS and touch-enabled mobile devices. As a result, users are able to use mobile devices to accomplish almost anything that they can do with stationary devices, and they do so at all times and in all places. These mutually-reinforcing trends ubiquitous connectivity, mobile devices, and the explosion of the social revolution online are converging to transform the fundamentals of media. I characterize that as the transition into liquid from solid, and so, we are seeing the emergence of liquid media. This will change media institutions and business models, and will raise the role of curation to a new, central importance. We are seeing this rst in the open web, in blogging and other journalistic media forms, but it will spread inexorably out into every niche of the media world, and its happening to TV, right now.
We are at an inflection point, where TV becomes another corner of human civilization that has fallen into the black hole called the web. As a result, in the next few years at least in the advanced economies the way we experience TV will be changed profoundly, and the meaning of the word will change in corresponding ways.
Old TV
Standalone TV Broadcast Centralized Monopolies Scarcity Economics Content Centric
New TV
Swarm Of Devices Social And Participatory Distributed Marketplaces Abundance Economics User Experience Centric
the plain vanilla standalone TV, and perhaps talking with others actually in the room is effectively dead, except with people who have not adopted mobile devices: a rapidly diminishing demographic. There is research demonstrating that over 75% of users who have access to mobile devices or a laptop while
source Neilsen 2012
watching TV will spend more than half of the time looking at the second screen, not the TV. To the left, you see ndings from a recent Neilsen study, showing the frequency of simultaneous device use along with TV viewing, showing that over 40% of mobile device users excluding ebook devices use the devices in parallel with TV daily. And of course, US networks are aware of whats going on, and are are actively promoting social interaction in parallel with their shows. For example, many shows are promoting Twitter use with
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And many folks are looking up product information based on what they saw in ads, or doing background on the shows cast or story. And those interested in sports check the scores a lot. And, the growth of YouTube shows that people will create, share, and watch users videos. YouTube had over 1 trillion videos viewed in 2011, and 60 hours of video is uploaded every there minute, with 3B hours of video watched every month at this point.
And these videos are taking a larger slice of the TV users time. Nielsen research from February 2012 shows the demographic spread of watching behavior per week in the US. Note that the younger cadres watch less traditional TV, and that the youngest are watching the highest amount of mobile video. [An interesting factoid: Asian-Americans watch 2.5 times as much web video as American Whites.]
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range, and cable is almost always a monopoly managed by municipality. For example, in my town, I only have the option of Cablevision or Verizon as cable provider. However, so-called over-the-top TV threatens to shake up the established system. Over-the-top means that TV content video, programs, whatever are streamed via broadband or mobile to the users internet connected devices, side stepping the linear TV set up. Of course the networks and distributors are hoping to forestall over the top TV, just like they tried to make DVR illegal, but movements by other big players are undermining their efforts. TouTube has introduced channels, and the company is working with well-known entertainment gures like Madonna, Jay-Z, and the Wall Street Journal to create original content and deliver it over the top. Prominent entertainers, like Louis CK, are going over the top to cut out producers and networks out of the distribution pictures. Apple has been rumored to be pursuing the rights to Premier League Football, and coupled with the much discussed release of an Apple iTV in 2012, they are in a position to create an enormous push into TV apps through the iTunes app store. As we will see in later sections, the migration of TV viewers attention to the second screen and the movement of larger disruptive players like Apple and Google are together steadily eroding the control of the established TV monopolies. By 2015, we will be in a very different world for TV.
The migration of TV viewers attention to the second screen and the movement of larger disruptive players like Apple and Google are together steadily eroding the control of the established TV monopolies. By 2015, we will be in a very different world for TV.
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have both been working on real-time voice translation. I anticipate very signicant advance in this area in
While the great majority of time spent watching TV is still going through the conventional networks, over the top innovations like Netflix demonstrate that there are profitable and powerful ways to end run the current business models.
the next few years, so that most national languages will be inter-translatable. So the Bulgarian market will not require a Bulgarian version of Mad Men, not will it have to be laboriously subtitled manually. There is also a generation of independent TV producers making great TV in innovative formats, and distributing it over the top, directly, without becoming ground into sausage by the networks. While the great majority of time spent watching TV is still going through the conventional networks, over the top innovations like Netix demonstrate that there are protable and powerful ways to end run the current business models. (An aside: Netix might counter the tremendous amount of bad press and customer hatred it caused when the company announced it was breaking into two companies, in order to prepare a transition away from the popular DVD-by-mail half of the service by creating a really clever social TV application.)
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music. For a very large proportion of popular songs, Shazam was able to ID the song, and allow the user the option of buying it. Shazam is now ngerprinting TV shows and movies, as are other social TV apps. This provides a completely different user experience when watching TV. For example, I turn on my TV and spin through various channels, and I see a movie that looks interesting, with Richard Gere talking with Frances McDormand. My app, Umami, identies the movie and gures that I am watching HBO because thats being played there at that moment. I can then tell my friends on Umami that I am watching it, and I can nd others that are watching it, and see their observations. Research has shown, once people begin to experience TV in this way, the content the movie, the show, the game becomes the topic that is being discussed in a lean forward way, and the show is watched in a lean back way, at the same time. The new hybrid experience is lean back and lean forward at the same time, as the user shifts their eyes and thoughts from the screen in the corner to the screen on their lap. As more and more time is spent on the second screen, a completely new dynamic emerges. The second screen may be the natural place for ads, sponsorship, and selling to take place, and not on the dumb display in the corner.
The new hybrid experience is lean back and lean forward at the same time, as the user shifts their eyes and thoughts from the screen in the corner to the screen on their lap. As more and more time is spent on the second screen, a completely new dynamic emerges. The second screen may be the natural place for ads, sponsorship, and selling to take place, and not on the dumb display in the corner.
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Networks and TV production house should be working to create their own second screen applications, or at least experimenting with them. Do Game Of Thrones and Mad Men have enough of a dense and rich community to support their own second screen apps, with carefully choreographed content? My bet is yes, but aside from a few partnerships, the established TV players arent moving fast. Which is why I am betting on the 800 lb gorillas like Google, Facebook, Apple, or new startups to be the source of massive market disruption in TV land. The second screen will be 100 times more disruptive to the ad model of old TV than DVR ever was.
The second screen will be 100 times more disruptive to the ad model of old TV than DVR ever was.
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Social TV Innovators
In this section, I take a quick look at the innovators in the Social TV market, and conjecture what is likely to take place in the next few years.
Twitter
Twitter has become a major element of TV: hashtags are everywhere on TV, and Twitters management is actively working to get Twitter streams integrated into programming. In March 2012, Trendrr reported that
In March 2012, Trendrr reported that Twitter is dominating the social activity occurring around broadcast TV, at 80%, compared to 8% for GetGlue and 7% for Facebook.
Twitter is dominating the social activity occurring around broadcast TV, at 80%, compared to 8% for GetGlue and 7% for Facebook.
Facebook
Facebook is a default second screen application for many Facebook users, simply because it is central to their social identity. Look to the partnerships and possible acquisitions that Facebook has structured with Netix, Hulu, IMDb, Flister, DirecTV and Miso.
YouTube
YouTube (part of Google) reported over 1 trillion views in 2011. 60 hours of video is uploaded to their servers every minute, and 3 billion hours of video are watched per month, at the time of writing this report. $3.1 billion is projected for online video in 2012, and YouTube is likely to gain the majority of that money. In March 2012, Google announced that Google TV Channels had a 60% growth since December 2011, and the company plans to spend $100 million in new content production. Google is clearly planning to become a vertically integrated player in web TV, with production and direct distribution (and the worlds largest dark ber network). Historically, the companys social technologies have been disasters, but YouTube has been a huge success.
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Netix is repositioning itself as a competitor to HBO as a way to develop more partnerships with cable operators, instead of being viewed as an over-the-top competitor to the cable companies. It is still being bottled up by major networks, and studios are still pushing their Ultraviolet technology, trying to get users to buy DVDs and upload them to digital lockers. Ultimately though, connected users do not want DVDs. Like HBO, Netix is developing original programming: series like Arrested Development and Lillyhammer.
Hulu
Hulu has released Hulu Plus unlimited streaming for $7.99/month and is moving onto a wide variety of set top boxes and TV. Hulu has the highest level of engagement after YouTube at 3.2 hours/month. Hulus partnerships with Facebook includes the ability to leave a comment for Facebook friends at a specic point in a show.
Amazon
Amazon Prime Instant Video is a streaming service that competes with Netix and Hulu Plus. The service is a $79/year offering, and provides a number of other features, like 2nd day mailing on all Amazon purchases. Amazon has not created any second screen offerings, and its Kindle hardware is a distant fourth in users second screen social activity, after phones, tablets, and PCs.
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Apple is the highest valued company of all time, and is sitting on a very large pile of cash. The companys iPhone and iPad are the dening hardware of the current era, and the company is well-positiong to dominate the next era of TV. However, the company hasnt done much in the social web. The social network implemented in iTunes, called Ping, has been widely criticized and has relatively low usership. In the recent Steve Jobs biography, Walter Isaacson cited the founder of Apple as starting that Apple had recently cracked the code of TV: Id like to create an integrated television set that is completely easy to use. It would be seamlessly synched with all of your devices and with iCloud. It will have the simplest user interface you could imagine. I nally cracked it. The analysts generally agree that Apple will be releasing a new integrated solution, including an Apple TV device, sometime in late 2012 or early 2013, and it will seamlessly work with other Apple devices. Clearly, Apple is in a position to offer a iPad and iPhone integration that would dazzle. Considering Apple manages to get 70% of the prots of the entire smartphone market, will they be able to do the same in TV hardware? Consider the use of Siri as a navigational element, as just one anticipated feature. Apple iTunes was built around the model that the natural uint of music is the song (at 99). The natural unit of TV is the episode (at 99), the movie ($1.99), or the game ($2.99), not a bundle of channels for $80/month.
Apple iTV mockup
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The company is planning to get more involved in advertising and coupon distribution, and is one of the smaller player best positioned to become a major second screen application. Shazam is an extremely likely acquisition candidate by any major with an interest in advertising models, like Google, for example.
thePlatform
thePlatform is a Comcast company, basically grappling with the big data in TV use. The company has a new initiative for its TV Everywhere offering, marketed to cable operators, slicing data to create better packages of channels. They have also provided capabilities for mid roll ads which was difcult for competitors to get working.
Shazam is an extremely likely acquisition candidate by any major with an interest in advertising models, like Google, for example.
GetGlue
GetGlue is a pure play second screen application, and is enjoying very fast growth: 800% increase in check-ins in the rst half of 2011, and 2 million users joined in 2011. The company raised $12 million in January 2012. GetGlue has integrations with social platforms Twitter, Facebook, Tumblr, and Foursquare, and with DirecTV.
Miso
Miso is another pure play second screen application, and has been working on developing partnerships with cable operators like AT&T Uverse and DirecTV.
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synchronized with TV content, like trivia contests, or point to additional information online. Partners using SideShows include Showtime, FOX, Food Network, DIRECTVs Audience Network, Halogen, Science Channel and CBS Television Distribution. This capability is extremely interesting, and is likely to be widely copied.
Umami
Umami is another pure play second screen application, employing audio ngerprinting, and offers a Freezeframe feature, where users can share a still image captured from a show. The word on the street is that Umami is having a difcult time making partnerships with networks and
IntoNow display with sports stats
cable operators.
IntoNow
IntoNow is a Yahoo company, another pure play second screen application. IntoNow uses propreitary Soundprint audop ngerprinting to identify shows, even if it is the rst broadcast: Yahoo must be crunching all shows being broadcast in realtime. As bets a major media company, Yahoo has integrated streaming news headlines, and very deep stats for sports. Looks like the best sportsoriented second screen app. IntoNow has integration with twitter and Facebook, and Tme magazine rated it the best smartphone app of 2011.
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Final Observations
TV is changing very, very quickly as a direct consequence of being absorbed by the social web. This involves both the actions of very large internet players Google, Apple, Facebook, and Yahoo and the innovation coming out of small social TV startups, like GetGlue, Miso, Shazam and others. The players in the established linear TV model production houses, networks, and cable operators are likely to be increasingly threatened and marginalized as their control of Old TV is destabilized by the huge investments the internet behemoths are making. New advertising models ones that are much more aligned with web advertising models are already emerging on the second screen, and these will lead to a rapid decrease in the protability of the Old TV model as ads playing on the dumb TV device are displaced by ads and other forms of participative sponsorship on the second screen: on users smart phones and tablets. The ability of the internet giants to invest in new production, and to circumvent cables scarcity-based distribution chain, means that in only ve years or so, the landscape of the TV marketplace will be very very different. We can also anticipate a game-changing move from Apple, whose iTV is likely to roll out in late 2012 or early 2013. At the very least, an Apple solution that disrupts the industry the way that the iTunes/iPod combination disrupted and remade the music business would push many Old TV brands out of business, and open the doors to a new normal for TV. New TV will be built strongly on and embedded in the social web that has changed modern society in the past 10 years, and we can expect a dozen or so new startups to become the Facebooks, Twitters, and Instagrams of this new era, and some others to become the Tower Records, Blockbusters, and Circuit Cities, as well.
TV is changing very, very quickly as a direct consequence of being absorbed by the social web. This involves both the actions of very large internet players Google, Apple, Facebook, and Yahoo and the innovation coming out of small social TV star tups, like GetGlue, Miso, Shazam and others.