A Critique on the Global Warming Scenario

(w.r.t the two Documentaries: 'An Inconvenient Truth' and 'The Great Global Warming Swindle')

Sushrut Thorat 110260017 IIT Bombay 20 Jan, 2013 GLOBAL WARMING is an average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere near the Earths surface and in the troposphere. The massive non-equilibrium cycles involving the planet's orbit, the sun's activity, and the thus affected oceans and other sources in general, make the greenhouse gases and the internal dynamics of earth oscillate, leading to the temperature oscillations. This implies that Global Warming is a natural phenomenon. But, in the present age, it's not just the ecosystem that's involved with the greenhouse gases. Human activity contributes not only to the greenhouse gases, but also disrupts the ecosystem, which leads to more imbalance in the dynamics of Earth. The prime concern of the common use of the term 'Global Warming' today is that of human activity leading to significant imbalance in the atmosphere and the internal dynamics of Earth, leading to- unwanted temperature rise, sea-level rise, drowning of areas, hindrance to vegetation and UV pollution by the degradation of the Ozone layer. Both, the natural effect, and the Human effect hypothesis seem plausible qualitatively. But the truth is incomplete without quantitative analysis.

Actually, the primary quantitative analysis sounds simple enough. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. You analyse the percentage CO2 throughout history through Ice Core data. Then you correlate it with the temperature you get through Tree Ring analysis and the Ice Core density measurements. And here's where data manipulation is a possibility. Not everyone has access to ice cores. Not everyone can set up correlations and comment. We leave it to the experts. They can get to conclusions, inform the unbiased administration accordingly, leading to immediate measures to curb the effects, and take precautions. But, according to a 'liberal' society, the crowd ought to know the state-ofaffairs of the planet. Here's where Al Gore's documentary 'An Inconvenient Truth', and the challenge to it- 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' step in.

Al Gore asserts that the present temperature rise is more an effect of anthropogenic causes. He presents specific data in support of his assertion: The Keeling curve, measuring CO2 from the Mauna Loa Observatory. The retreat of numerous glaciers by before-and-after photography. A study by researchers at the Physics Institute at the University of Bern and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica presenting data from Antarctic ice cores showing carbon dioxide concentrations higher than at any time during the past 650,000 years. Temperature record since 1880 showing that the ten hottest years ever measured in this atmospheric record had all occurred in the previous fourteen years. A 2004 survey, by Naomi Oreskes of 928 peer-reviewed scientific articles on global climate change published between 1993 and 2003. The survey, published as an editorial in the journal Science, found that every article either supported the human-caused global warming consensus or did not comment on it. From: [Siegenthaler, Urs; Stocker, Thomas F.; et al. (11-25 2005). "Stable Carbon Cycle Climate Relationship During the Late Pleistocene (abstract)". Science 310 (5752): 1313

1317. doi:10.1126/science.1120130. PMID 16311332. Archived from the original on 24 July 2008. Retrieved 2008-06-13.], a composite CO2 record over six and a half ice age cycles back to 650,000 yr B.P. (kyr B.P. is thousand years before the present, i.e., before A.D. 1950) :

The upper section of the graph clearly shows that the CO2 concentration did not exceed 300ppmv. Whereas, the Keeling Curve:

clearly shows that the CO2 concentrations have increased a lot. The corresponding temperature curve does follow the same pattern. Also, the Keeling curve fits with the scale of industrialisation. Add to it, the retreating glaciers, and the disrupted Ozone Layer, Al Gore was quick to conclude that the Humans are to blame, and if we didn't stop, we are doomed. And 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' hits upon the correlation of Temperature vs CO2. They point out that the CO2 'lags' behind temperature levels.

There's a lag of almost a thousand years. They attributed this to the fact that oceans hold CO2, and as the temperature rises, they release it on account of the decrease in it CO2 holding capacity. Now, as they oceans are huge and the specific heat of water is high, it takes a lot of years for them to heat up, thus the lag. Thus they assert, that CO2 isn't the major contributor. According to the film, water vapour makes up 95% of all greenhouse gases and has the largest impact on the planet's temperature. Water particles in the form of clouds act to reflect incoming solar heat, but the film argues that the effects of clouds cannot be accurately simulated by scientists attempting to predict future weather patterns and their effects on global warming. They claim that the major game-changer is the Solar Activity, and that the activity of the sun is far more influential on global warming and cooling than any other man-made or natural activity on Earth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Inconvenient_Truth

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Global_Warming_Swindle Click on the links and you'll find a list of arguments against both of them. Scientists manipulating data, politicians manipulating scientists, oil companies playing their games, and biases doing the rounds. This topic, sadly, fails to uphold itself as a science, and has become a religion- a matter of faith, topped with corruption.

It is true that the CO2 levels have risen unnaturally and that it is due to anthropogenic factors. It is also true that the 'natural' CO2 levels lag behind the temperature. They amplify the warming thereafter. But why does the temperature drop after the peak? CO2 is going up, then how can the temperature fall? It seems like the global temperature is more affected than something else than CO2. Maybe it's the water vapour, as if the temperature rises, so will the concentration of water vapour. And they shield the surface via clouds, reflecting the solar radiation, leading to the cooling. And as water vapour is 95% of the greenhouse gases, maybe it outweighs CO2. Or maybe, the Earth's orbit is upto something. If you look at the Temperature vs CO2 graph, you'll notice that the rise in temperature and CO2 as seen today is naturally justified. But the graph is so irregular, you can't even say "It's ok". Well, unnatural CO2 emissions will lead to the rise of atmospheric temperature. If we consider that water vapour does have an effect, then as CO2 is being artificially dumped, and water vapour being constant, it could lead to more than average heating. The point is that CO2 emissions will affect the temperature. The question is how much? Well, some things are for sure, it won't melt down Antarctic anytime soon.

It's hard to comment on the actual effects. Given that, I ain't a professional, I have got no hands-on data to trust and comment upon, I can just qualitatively speculate. But yes, human interference is a considerable factor. On how much it is affecting the environment globally, I am not sure about. But locally, we all know what is happening. Pollution is not to be confused with Global Warming. And Pollution 'is' real. And it is affecting us. All the measures taken against Global Warming are anti-pollution, so we could just stick to them irrespective of what we think of Global Warming. So, in any case we have to be indirectly pro anti-global warming. That's sums it up, I guess.

Not everyone is qualified enough to experiment and talk about Global Warming. But w.r.t Pollution, everyone needs to be educated. If anything extra is needed, scientists will unanimously tell us so. So, we could not get along with our lives. Go Green , and love thy environment- that's all it takes. Let's stop being a part of this hype one and for all, and the hype will cease to exist.