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Demand and Supply Analysis of Foodgrains Production in Assam: A Futuristic Study Using Levenberg-Marquardt Estimation Procedure.

(Abstract) Agriculture in Assam is now facing a number of challenges due to low per capita availability of land and population explosion. Over a period of about three decades, the net cropped area has not registered any significant increase and there is no likelihood of any substantial increase in it. At the same time the population is increasing day by day resulting in increasing demand for foodgrains. The probable situation is explored using LevenbergMarquardt Logistic Estimation Procedure. It has emerged that at the present trend of foodgrains production, the extent of shortfall in production is going to increase. This situation is inevitable, unless a strategy is formulated for a radical increase in cropping intensity, supported by commensurate irrigation facilities along with required (and feasible) increase in productivity levels of food-grains especially rice and wheat. Key words: Logistic estimation, Compound rate of growth, Run test, Irrigation intensity, Cropping intensity. 1. Introduction: Assam is primarily an agricultural state, which accounts for the livelihood of about four-fifths of the states population. More than 70 per cent of the workforce is engaged in agriculture and allied activities. Rice is the staple food crop; cash crops like jute, tea, cotton, oilseeds, sugarcane, potato, etc., are also grown in the state. Agriculture is the core of the primary Domestic Product and it contributes 24.48 per cent to the Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) at constant (1999-2000) price during 2008-09 (quick estimate). However, the per capita net sown area for Assam is much lower than the All-India average. As a result, the extent of population pressure on effective land i.e. net area sown including current fallow can be gauged from the per capita figure for Assam at 0.10 hectare as on 2007-08(Directorate of Economics and Statistics).Therefore it seems that agriculture has now reached a stage of physical limit in terms of land. The net cropped area in the state constitutes about 32 per cent of the total geographical area (excluding the fallow land). Over a period of about three decades, the net cropped are has not registered any significant increase and there is no likelihood of any

substantial increase in it. Even if the current cultivable wasteland is brought under cultivation along with current fallow land involving considerable investment for land reclamation, the overall land availability is not expected to improve in any significant way. At the same time the population is increasing day by day resulting in food deficiency in the state. Now, Assam has to spend several cores of rupees annually in procurement of food grains, oilseeds etc from other states. The problem will be more acute if necessary policies are not formulated to solve it. Under these circumstances the present study is an attempt to focus the demand and supply of food-grain production in Assam for the coming decades, based on previous actual data, as well as makes some timely and relevant suggestions. 2. Objectives and Hypotheses of the Study The major objectives of the study are as follows: 1. Make an assessment of the probable position of food-grains production in the coming decades in the state. 2. Estimate the projected demand for food-grains in the state on the basis of per capita consumption as suggested by experts. 3. Observe the discrepancy between projected demand and projected supply of foodgrains. Hypotheses: For a systematic study on the basis of the objectives stated above, two hypotheses are taken out in the form of: i. The present trend of foodgrains production cannot alter the productivity substantially in the coming decades i.e. decadal mean value of foodgrains productions are not significantly differ. ii. If the present productivity of foodgrains and the prevailing crop intensity remain unaltered, Assam will face serious shortage of food-grains to meet the food requirements of her projected population by 2050 A.D. 3. Methodology The study is mainly based on available official data, supplemented by a few personal visits. Widely used statistical tools such as logistic regression analysis, run test (Z), test of normality (S.W), etc are done with the help of sophisticated computer programmes like SPSS.

Population of Assam is predicted up to 2050-51 based on 2011 census at an interval of 5 years. The compound rate of growth method is employed for computing the annual rate of growth (simple), which can be applied to the information at any two points of time. The formula is given as: R = [(Pn / Po) 1/n - 1] x 100 ----------(1.1) Where R = annual rate of growth; Pn = population in the current year Po = population in the base year; n = number of intermediary years. Accordingly population for a particular time period say, n is calculated as Pn = Po (1+R/100)n ------------------- (1.2) Food-grains production is predicted with the help of logistic growth model using LevenbergMarquardt estimation procedure which can be stated ast = c (1 + b exp( a t )) ---------------(2.1)

Where, Nt= projected output for the year under consideration The projected demands for foodgrains are arrived at multiplying the projected population by three different per capita food requirement norms. 4. Projection of Population For projecting1 population of Assam we applied the compound rate of growth method. For computing the annual rate of growth (simple), the formula-1.2 is applied to the information at any two points of time. The annual growth rate of population during last century shows an almost steady growth (ranges from 1.69 to 2.04) except the time period from 1951 to 1981. During this period the annual growth rate of population was around 3.31 per cent. In the present context, to avoid overestimation and to maintain reliability of the study the latest annual growth rate of 1.69 during 2001-2011 is adopted for projecting total population of Assam. On this basis, the total

For the projection of population, base year population (P0), the number of birth and deaths between projected year and base year, and net migration is required. Keeping in view the in-migration and out-migration, net migration may be either positive or negative. The problem associated with population projection is that though the population in the base year is available, number of births, deaths and migration in future needs to be projected which is not an easy task. One such method that considers all these aspects is known as component method of population projections. However, in case of Assam, there is no official reliable data on migration. As such we have to rely on the compound rate of growth method for projecting the population of Assam.

population of Assam is predicted up to 2050-51 A.D within five years interval. The predicted figures are shown in table-1 Table-1: Projection of Population of Assam Year 2010-11 2015-16 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31 Population 31,696,037 33,893,615 36,856,079 40,077,476 43,580,439 Years 2035-36 2040-41 2045-46 2050-51 Population 47,506,218 51,683,893 56,228,951 61,173,700

5. Projection of Demand for Foodgrains: The projected population figures are utilized for computation of projected demand for food-grains till 2050-51 A.D., the terminal year of the study. The projected demands for foodgrains are worked out using the following per capita consumption per annum rates: the world average cereal consumption rate of 250 kg. per person per year, M.S. Swaminathans rate of 225 kg and Planning Commissions rate of 167 kg. The projected demand for food grains on these consumption rates are given in Table-2. Table-2: Projected Demand for Food-grains Demand: (000 tonnes) Norm-I Norm-II Norm-III 250 kg/p/year 225 kg/p/year 167kg/p/year 2010-11 7924.01 7131.61 5293.24 2015-16 8473.40 7626.06 5660.23 2020-21 9214.02 8292.62 6154.96 2025-26 10019.37 9017.43 6692.94 2030-31 10895.12 9805.60 7277.93 2035-36 11876.55 10688.90 7933.54 2040-41 12920.97 11628.88 8631.21 2045-46 14057.24 12651.51 9390.23 2050-51 15293.43 13764.08 10216.01 From a perusal of the table, it is seen that the projected demand of food-grains in Assam would be 15.29 million tonnes in 2050 A.D. The corresponding figures by Swaminathans norm stand at 13.76 million tonnes. These two norms represent the ideal case of proper calorie Year

intake by a healthy person. So, this may not be affordable for a large segment of the states population within this century. As such, the other norm prescribed by the Planning Commission is adopted. This norm yielded projected demand of the order of 10.22 million tonnes at the end of 2050 A.D. With further development in the states economy, the per capita income is expected to register an increase resulting in higher demand for food-grains. The norms of 250 kg and 225 kg per person per year may be relevant in such a situation. 6. Projection of Food-grains Production: Food-grains production from indigenous sources is projected upto 2050-51 A.D. on the basis of the actual official food-grains production statistics2 available for the time period of 1990-91to 2009-10. Levenberg-Marquardt Estimation Procedure is employed to fit logistic regression function to predict future values of food-grains production. The non-linear estimation procedure can be presented as t = c (1 + b exp( a t ))

Where, Nt= projected production of food-grains for a specified year; c= constant3 (40.00); a=0; and b=1. The projected values up to 2050-51 A.D. are presented in the table-3 Table-3: Projected value of Food-grains production Production: (Lakh tonnes) Year 2010-11 2015-16 2020-21 2025-26 2030-31 Food-grains Production 40.11 41.67 43.29 44.98 46.73 Years 2035-36 2040-41 2045-46 2050-51 Food-grains Production 48.55 50.44 52.41 54.45

From a perusal of the projected values (Table-3), it is seen that the production figures at the existing pattern of agricultural development results in a slow growth of food-grains production for the coming years. It is estimated that at the end of the years 2050-51 A.D. the food-grains production will be 54.45 lakh tonnes only. Model Adequacy
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However, data were not complete for the entire time period. As such it requires filling up the missing or unavailable data by some proxy estimation. The method of interpolation is used to fill the missing data. 3 Value is determined through the process of linearization.

It is strongly recommended to analyse the residual in detail to verify the model adequacy. We applied two such tests namelyi. ii. The Run Test The runs test (Bradley, 1968) can be used to decide if a data set is generated from a random process. A run is defined as a series of increasing values or a series of decreasing values. The number of increasing, or decreasing, values is the length of the run. The run test is defined as Ho: Errors are independent. Ha: Errors are not independent. Table-4: Runs Test Test Value Cases < Test Value Cases >= Test Value Total Cases Number of Runs Z Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) a. Median RR The test statistics is Z = ; where R is the observed number of runs, R , is the expected sR number of runs, and sR is the standard deviation of the number of runs. The values of R and sR are computed as follows: R= 2n1 n 2 +1 n1 + n 2 2n1 n2 ( 2n1 n 2 n1 n2 ) ( n1 + n 2 ) 2 (n1 + n 2 1)
a

Test of Independence of errors (Run test) Test for normality (Kolmogorov-Smirnov &Shapiro-Wilk test)

Residuals -.32 10 10 20 9 -.689 .491

s2R =

Where n1 and n2 are the number of positive and negative values in the series The test shows that at, at the 5 % significance level, the test statistic has an absolute value less than 1.96 and thus indicates non-randomness. Shapiro-Wilk test

Shapiro-Wilk Test is more appropriate for small sample sizes (< 50 samples) but can also handle sample sizes as large as 2000. For this reason, we will use the Shapiro-Wilk test as our numerical means of assessing normality. Table-5:Results of S-W Test( Tests of Normality) Kolmogorov-Smirnova Shapiro-Wilk Statistic df Sig. Statistic df Sig. Predicted Values a. Lilliefors Significance Correction * This is a lower bound of the true significance. .072 61 .200* .953 61 .019

The above table presents the results from two well-known tests of normality, namely the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test and the Shapiro-Wilk Test. It is evident from the table that the predicted values of foodgrains production are normally distributed since the sig. value of the Shapiro-Wilk Test is greater the 0.05. However, K-S test also signifies that the predicted values are normally distributed. Normality of the data is also verified using Normal Q-Q Plot(Figure1) and Box Plot(Figure-2)

7. Per Capita Availability of Food-grains: A striking feature noted from Table-6 is that the per capita availability of food-grains during the years under projection declines continuously from 126.54 kg in 2010-11, to 107.23 kg in 2030-31, and further to 89.01 kg in 2050-51 A.D. The overall percentage decline in per capita food-grains availability, during the years under projection, (2010-11to 2050-51) stands at a staggering rate of 29.66 per cent. This is because the state population is anticipated to grow whereas the growth rate of food-grains production is very low. Table-6: Per capita Availability of Food-grains in Assam (in Kg.) from Indigenous Sources Year Projected availability of Years 2035-36 2040-41 2045-46 2050-51 Projected availability of Foodgrains 102.20 97.59 93.21 89.01

Foodgrains 2010-11 126.54 2015-16 122.94 2020-21 117.46 2025-26 112.23 2030-31 107.23 Source: Table-1& Table-3. 8. Demand and Supply Gap of Food-grains:

Table-7 and Figure-3 portray the projected gap between demand and supply of foodgrains in Assam during the period 2010-11 to 2050-51. It is evident from the table that under all the considered per capita consumption norms of 250 kg, 225 kg and 167 kg per person per year, the shortage of food-grains is going to increase considerably towards the end of the projected period (2050A.D.). The extent of gap as per the norm of 250 kg per person per year increases from 123.45 kg in 2010-11 to 156.79kg in 2050-51 A.D. These figures show a sharp increase in the deficit of food-grains production within the state by about 27 per cent over the period under projection. The magnitude of deficit as per the norm of 225 kg and 167 kg per person per year, works out to be 131.79 kg and 73.79 kg respectively towards the end of the projected period (2050-51 A.D) which are relatively lower. Table-7: Projected Demand and Supply Gap of Food-grains in Assam Year Norm-I Norm-II 225 kg/p/year 98.45 102.06 107.54 112.77 117.77 122.80 127.41 131.79 Norm-III 167kg/p/year 40.45 44.06 49.54 54.77 59.77 64.80 69.41 73.79 250 kg/p/year 2010-11 123.45 2015-16 127.06 2020-21 132.54 2025-26 137.77 2030-31 142.77 2035-36 147.80 2040-41 152.41 2045-46 156.79 Source: Table-2 and Table-3.

9. Concluding Remarks: The scenario presented above demands an inevitable increase in gross irrigated area and cropping intensity to meet the rising demand of food-grains. Assuming ceteris paribus, gross irrigated area represents an indicator of total demand for irrigation. There are two main sources of growth in irrigation area: expanding the irrigated area and increasing the frequency with which it is irrigated (irrigation intensity). Among various factors affecting cropping intensity, especially for rice, irrigation water is considered to be the most crucial input. However, the data on irrigation potential utilized shows that out of the total irrigation potential created in the state only a small portion is being utilized4. Irrigation intensity also did not show any desired increase over the last two decades. Irrigation intensity5 of Assam was calculated as 1.00 per cent during 1990-93. It remained
4

It is observed that in 2000-01, out of the total irrigation potential created by the Irrigation department worth

503.99 thousand hectares, only 114.73 thousand hectares of irrigation potential was utilized during the year. Again in 2002-03, out of the total irrigation potential created by the Irrigation Department worth 520.04 thousand hectares, only 79.37 thousand hectares of irrigation potential was utilized during the year.
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Irrigation intensity is a crucial indicator reflecting effective gross availability of water per unit area of cultivable

land. If irrigation water could be provided for a particular piece of land for more than one crop season, then the irrigation intensity naturally increases. Also, raising more than one irrigated crop in any area leads to a better use of inputs and also better utilization of residual soil moisture available from the previous crop resulting in higher crop yield and output levels. It can be defined as Ratio of gross irrigated area (GIA) to net irrigated area (NIA)

unchanged during 1997-2000 also. During the last decade, irrigation intensity of India has increased from 1.32 to 1.37 percent. Thus the study concluded that at the present trend of food-grains production, the extent of shortfall in the food-grains production in Assam is going to increase further. This situation is inevitable, unless a strategy is formulated for a radical increase in cropping intensity, supported by commensurate irrigation facilities along with required (and feasible) increase in productivity levels of food-grains especially rice and wheat. Higher proportional irrigated area could encourage farmers to adopt mechanization, which can help in increasing the irrigation intensity and finally the volume of food-grains production. References Angood, C., Chancellor, F., Morrison, J. and Smith, L, Hansip, N., (2002): Contribution of Irrigation to Sustaining Rural Livelihoods: Nepal Case Study. HR Wallingford technical report OD/TN 113, Wallingford, UK available from http://www.hrwallingford.co.uk/downloads/publications/dlreports/ODTN113.pdf cited on 23rd June 2005. Bradley, J. V. (1968). Distribution Free Statistical Tests, Herman H. J. Lynge and Sn A/S, New Jersey Bhaduri, A., Upali Amarasinghe and Tushaar Shah (2008) : Future of Irrigation in India http://nrlp.iwmi.org/PDocs/DReports/Phase_01/01-Future%20of%20Irrigation- Anik %20Bhaduri.doc Brabben, T., Angood, C., Skutsch, J., and Smith, L., (2004): Irrigation can Sustain Rural Livehoods: Evidence from Bangladesh and Nepal, cited on 24th June 2005 available http://www.hrwallingford.co.uk/downloads/publications/dlreports/OD151.pdf GoA (2001-2009): Statistical Abstract of Assam, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Guwahati. GoA (2005-2010): Economic Survey of Assam, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Guwahati. from

IRI=GIA/NIA

Kumar, P (1998): Food Demand and Supply Projections for India. Agricultural Economics Policy Paper 98-01 .IARI , New Delhi. Kuznets, S., (1955): Economic Growth and Income Inequality, American Economic Review 45:128. Sharma, P. (1992): A Study of Irrigation Development and its Impact on Food-grains Production in Assam, Ph. D, Thesis, Submitted to Gauhati University. ************************************************************************