FLASH NOTE

Vale
BBI Equity Research Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Vale Obtains Environmental License for Carajs Expansion

Vale has obtained a preliminary environmental license for the Carajs expansion. The market had expected Vale to face various challenges to secure this license, and therefore this news can be seen as a victory. However, we will still closely monitor the developments surrounding this project to observe whether Vale will experience any future setbacks on the licensing front. Carajs' S11D, which is Vale's largest expansion project, envisages exploring the biggest iron ore body of Carajs and this is the main reason for the infamous size of the iron ore complex. The Carajs project started several decades ago with the second-largest deposit in the North Range in Carajs. As the North Range is now reaching its expansion limit, both geologically as well as logistically, Vale has been forced to begin developing the South Range, where the S11D deposit is located. Therefore, this project is essential for the future growth of Carajs and Vale. The Carajs S11D expansion will require a sizable investment of US$8bn in the mine development, plus US$11bn related to logistics. The total capex is estimated at US$19bn, elevating the capex per ton of the industry to a new record of US$211/ton compared to the previous record of US$180/ton for BHP's expansion. This will be a key factor for LT iron ore prices and thus implies that prices should remain high. It also means that we should assume a high level for the Value-in-Use (VIU) in the LT as S11D is, in our view, THE new global frontier of high-grade iron ore. Another important aspect is that when the S11D project was initially announced many years ago, the original expectation was for a capex of US$12bn. But, during Vale Day in New York last year, the company announced an increase of this amount to US$19bn. Nonetheless, this new capex level has still not been included in Vale's official capex plan as it still needs to be approved by the board. Another important consideration is that if setbacks in the Carajs project occur, LT iron ore prices are likely to rise even more, and especially the VIU. The Carajs Railway (EFC) is a single track railway. For some years, in order to increase the railway's capacity, Vale has been building a passing siding in which trains can stop when a train is coming in the opposite direction. However, this can only improve the capacity to a target of 150mn tons, from 50mn tons in the 1990s. As the S11D project is expected to require an expansion to 200mn tons, a parallel track is expected to be built, which is likely to boost the cost of the project. We also should not forget that the Carajs railway has 890km of track that passes through very difficult terrain such the Amazon jungle, or across high mountain chains and over wide rivers. ( continued on the next page )

Vale (VALE5, VALE US) Mining Outperform

Target Price: R$57.00, US$31.70 Upside: 46.4%, 65.6%
115

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75 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12

Ibovespa

Vale PNA

Raphael Biderman

55 11 2178 5313 rbiderman@bradescobbi.com.br

COMPANY REPORT

Alan Glezer, CFA

55 11 2178 5466 alanglezer@bradescobbi.com.br

(BRL mn) EPS (R$) Net earnings EBITDA Shareholders' equity ROE% P/E EV/EBITDA P/BV Dividend yield

2011A 7.88 40,235 61,529 150,962 26.65% 4.94 4.10 1.32 9.26%

2012E 8.82 45,003 73,342 171,213 26.28% 4.41 3.44 1.16 12.46%

2013E 9.94 50,732 86,057 194,042 26.14% 3.92 2.93 1.02 14.05%

2014E 10.73 54,756 90,225 218,683 25.04% 3.63 2.79 0.91 15.16%

Key Figures Local price ADR Price range - 52 weeks (BRL) Shares outstanding (mn) 3-month ADTV (R$mn) Market cap (R$mn) 1 EV (R$mn) Net debt (R$mn) Net debt/EBITDA (LTM)

26-Jun-12 38.93 19.14 34.51-46.103 5,102.90 668.3 198,656 252,162 36,545 0.69

4 Bradesco Corretora Av. Paulista, 1.450 7th floor Sao Paulo Brazil 55 11 3556-3001 (BRL S.A. Reported A/E QoQ % YoY % Bradescomn) Corretora de Ttulos e Valores Mobilirios (Bradesco Corretora) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
Bradesco Corretora and its affiliates may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Net disclaimer and For fullRevenues definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

COMPANY REPORT BBI Equity Research Wednesday, June 27, 2012

At first glance, this project might seem to be unattractive given its high capex and the dubious outlook for the demand of iron ore, given the crisis in Europe and China's deceleration. Indeed, there are concrete signs that our long-held warning of a deceleration in China is occurring. According to Vale, the volume of iron ore sales in 2Q12 should recover only modestly in relation to the very weak 1Q12. Although Vale says that this is due to seasonal factors, having spoken to other players in the industry we now believe that the real reason is a deceleration in Chinese demand. Indeed, Vale confirmed that the company has resumed "Tender Shipping." Vale only applies this practice during weak market conditions such as in the wake of the Lehman crisis. Tender Shipping is when Vale sends ships to China without having a defined customer, and the company's sales team then need to sell and negotiate the cargo's conditions while the ship is en route to China. On the other hand, the Carajs expansion is strategic and we believe it will be pursued under almost any circumstance. Nevertheless, we believe the pay back will take quite a long time to be concluded. However, we see this project as a necessary burden for Vale, and this should eventually reap rewards in the LT as largescale, high-grade iron ore deposits in production will no longer be available. Moreover, the project is made even more strategically important, because not only is the Carajs North range reaching its limit, but also the mines in Minas Gerais state are facing a considerable decrease in the quality of ore. It is important to note that Carajs S11D is therefore the new frontier of high-grade iron ore for Vale and, possibly, even for the global iron ore industry. Other alternatives for high-grade iron ore projects worldwide are in regions that are often highly complex and unviable for political reasons (West Africa) or logistics reasons (Corumb-Brazil). Carajs is an interesting case in its essence. It has strategic implications, but without an immediate pay-back. We believe that this is a cost that would need to be incurred anyway, and Vale would still be undervalued accounting for such costs related to the expansion. The high capex of S11D is not a reason for us to change our view that the stock is undervalued, as its multiples are considerably lower than the historical average. At the same time, we should warn that the risks related to Vales investment thesis continue to be the same: China's deceleration and Valepar. Indeed, our call on Chinas hard landing, which was "contrarian" several years ago, is now becoming more of a mainstream concern. And, Vale's guidance for 2Q12 sales indicates that this concern could actually now be becoming real. In addition, news from China is also showing a sharp decline in some of the most important economic statistics such as electricity consumption (which rose just 1% in April, vs. 7% the year before), the level of loan growth, and land auctions by sub-national governments.

COMPANY REPORT BBI Equity Research Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Analyst Certification
Each analyst responsible for the preparation and content of this report hereby certifies, pursuant to SEC Regulation AC and applicable law s and regulations of other jurisdictions, that: (i) (ii) the view s expressed herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her personal view s and opinions about the subject company(ies) and its or their securities; no part of his or her compensation w as, is, or w ill be paid directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or view s expressed by that analyst in this report; and pursuant to Brazilian securities exchange commission (Comisso de Valores Mobilirios CVM) Instruction 483/10: the recommendations indicated in this report solely and exclusively reflect his or her personal opinions, and w ere prepared independently and autonomously, including in relation to Bradesco Corretora and its affiliates ; his or her compensation is based on the profitability of Bradesco Cooretora and its affiliates, w hich includes investment banking revenues;

(i) (ii)

Company disclosures pursuant to Brazilian securities exchange commission (Comisso de Valores Mobilirios CVM) Instruction 483/10: (i) Banco Bradesco S.A. beneficially ow ns 5% or more of equity securities issued by Cielo and Odontoprev. Bradseg Participaes, a subsidiary of Banco Bradesco, indirectly ow ns 5% or more of equity securities issued by Fleury. BRADESPAR, w hose controlling group is comprised of the same shareholders that control Banco Bradesco S.A., indirectly ow ns 5% or more of equity securities issued by VALE. (ii) gora, Bradesco Corretora, BBI and Bradesco Group companies have relevant financial and commercial interests in relation to the subject company(ies) or the subject security(ies). (iii) Banco Bradesco BBI S.A. is acting as an underw riter in a public offering of equity securities of Brazil Pharma,CPFL Energias Renovveis, LDC Bioenergia, Suzano Papel e Celulose, VIX Logstica and of debentures for BR Properties. gora and Bradesco Corretora are participating in the public offering of equity securities of Brazil Pharma and Suzano Papel e Celulose. (iv) Bradesco BBI have managed or co-managed a public offering of equity and/or debt securities for the follow ing companies w ithin the past 12 months: Abril Educao, Anhanguera Educacional, Banco do Brasil, BNDES Participaes, Bradespar, Brasil Telecom, Brazil Pharma, Br Properties, Banco BTG Pactual, BTG Pactual Participations Ltd, Claro, Comgs, CPFL (Brasil, Gerao, Paulista, Piratininga e Santa Cruz), Cremer, Cyrela Brazil Realty, Editora Abril, Editora e Distribuidora Educacional, Egesa, Eletropaulo, Embratel, FIDC Chemical VI, Fleury, Gafisa, GFV Holding, Iguatemi, Kroton Educacional, Marfrig, Marisol, Mills, MRV, Multiplan, OAS, OGX, Petrobras, Prosegur, QGDI, Qualicorp, Restoque (Le Lis Blanc), RGE, Rodoanel, Sonae Sierra, Tecnisa, Ultrapar, Unidas, Viaoeste e VRG. BBI also acted as a financial advisor for Fleury in the deal w ith Labs D'Or and for JSL in the acquisition of Rodovirio Schio Ltda. (v) gora and/or Bradesco Corretora participated in the public offering of equity and/or debt securities for the follow ing companies w ithin the past 12 months: Abril Educao, Anhanguera Educacional, BNDES Participaes, Brazil Pharma, BR Properties, Banco BTG Pactual, BTG Pactual Participations Ltd, EDP Energias do Brasil, Fibria, Fundo de ndice ICO2, International Meal Company, Kroton Educacional, Locamrica, Mahle Metal Leve, Minerva, Qualicorp, Technos, TIM and Unicasa. (vi) Bradesco Corretora receives compensation for making a market in the equity securities of Alpargatas (ALPA4) and Odontoprev (ODPV3), and in the fixed income securities of BNDESPAR and USIMINAS.

Important Disclosures Company-specific regulatory disclosures

1 2 Bradesco Corretora and/or its affiliates beneficially ow n one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company(ies). This position reflects information available as of the business day prior to the date of this report; Bradesco Corretora and/or its affiliates have managed or co-managed a public or Rule 144A offering of the subject companys(ies) securities in the tw elve months preceding the date of this report; Bradesco Corretora and/or its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company(ies) in the tw elve months preceding the date of publication of the research report and/or expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company(ies) in the three months follow ing the date of this report; Bradesco Corretora and/or its affiliates w ere making a market in the subject companys(ies) equity securities at the date of this report; Any other actual material conflict of interest of Bradesco Corretora and/or its affiliates know n at the date of this report.

4 5

Bradesco Corretora research ratings distribution

Rating Outperform Market Perform Underperform Under Review Restricted (1) (2) Definition Expected to outperform the Ibovespa by more than 10%. Expected to perform in the range of 10% above or below the Ibovespa. Expected to underperform the Ibovespa more than 10%. This indicates that both the target price and the rating are currently being revised. The analyst cannot express his/her view s on the company. Coverage 54% 38% 2% 4% 4% BR 100% 100% 100% 100% 75%

Percentage of companies under coverage globally w ithin this rating category. As of 06/27/12 Bradesco Corretora had 112 companies under coverage globally. Percentage of companies w ithin this rating category for w hich [investment banking] services w ere provided w ithin the past 12 months.

Bradesco Corretora ratings

Bradesco Corretora ratings are constantly revised and any temporary inconsistencies betw een the upside potential that gave rise to any such rating and the upside potential in connection w ith the target price are at all times deliberate. The official rating shall prevail. Any differences betw een the rating and the target price may occur especially due to the analysts expectations to the effect that any short/medium term factors that cannot be priced-in yet might lead to inconsistencies betw een Bradeco Corretora valuation and the stock behavior. The factors Bradeco Corretora considered include, but are not limited to: Any expectations in connection w ith quarterly results, market conditions, ow nership issues and any expectations involving mergers and acquisitions. The ratings reflect only the analysts expectation on the future performance of the relevant stock. A Outperform rating does not necessarily represent that the analyst approves of the company and its management w hilst a Underperform rating does not necessarily means that the analyst has a negative view on the company. Within Bradeco Corretora coverage universe there are sound companies, w ith good fundamentals as per the market consensus, and fair priced stock, and w ould not be Bradeco Corretora investment pick.

Price target and rating history

Price target, rating history chart(s), valuation/method used to determine price target, and our policy for managing conflicts of interest in connection w ith investment research are available upon request. You may obtain this information by contacting your representative or by sending an email to bradescocorretora@infobradesco.com.br.

COMPANY REPORT BBI Equity Research Wednesday, June 27, 2012

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Bradesco Corretora Research Team

Research Director Econom ics Dalton Gardimam
(Chief Eco no mist)

Dalton Gardimam

dalto n@bradesco bbi.co m.br

55 1 21 4275 1 78

55 1 21 4275 1 78

dalto n@bradesco bbi.co m.br

Denis Blum
(Senio r Eco no mist)

55 1 21 4224 1 78

denis@bradesco bbi.co m.br

Roman Goossens, CFA

(Eco no mist)

55 1 21 5468 1 78

ro man@bradesco bbi.co m.br

Raquel Erzinian
(Eco no mist)

55 1 21 531 1 78 9

raquel@bradesco bbi.co m.br

Head of Equity Research 55 1 21 5363 1 78 Carlos Firetti, CFA Banking and Financial Services Carlos Firetti, CFA Rafael Frade, CFA Bruno Chemmer, CFA Gustavo Lbo Healthcare Rafael Frade, CFA Carlos Firetti, CFA
55 1 21 4056 1 78 55 1 21 5363 1 78 55 1 21 5363 1 78 55 1 21 4056 1 78 55 1 21 4903 1 78 55 1 21 5329 1 78

carlo sfiretti@bradesco bbi.co m.br

Telecom , Media and Technology

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Luis Azevedo Tales Freire

55 1 21 5321 1 78 55 1 21 4527 1 78

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Education Luis Azevedo

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Tales Freire

Consum er Goods and Retail Ricardo Boiati Alan Cardoso, CFA Pedro Bueno
55 1 21 5326 1 78 55 1 21 531 1 78 7 55 1 21 4272 1 78 rbo iati@bradesco bbi.co m.br alancardo so @bradesco bbi.co m.br pedro .bueno @bradesco bbi.co m.br

Oil & Gas, Petrochem icals and Sugar & Ethanol Auro Rozenbaum Bruno Varella
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Steel, Mining, Pulp & Paper Raphael Biderman Transportation, Logistics, Malls and Sm all Caps Edigimar Maximiliano Jr. Luiz Peanha Hom ebuilding Luiz Mauricio Garcia Alain Nicolau
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Alan Glezer, CFA Electric Utilities, Water Vladimir Pinto Marcelo S Fixed Incom e Altair Pereira Caio Lombardi

55 1 21 5323 1 78 55 1 21 4273 1 78

vladimir.pinto @bradesco bbi.co m.br marcelo .sa@bradesco bbi.co m.br

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Institutional Sales Team - USA & UK

Bradesco Securities, Inc. New York (FINRA/SIPC Member)
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