This Week at ISN

7 - 11 Jan 2013 This week, we consider whether the post-Cold War decline in conflict is merely a temporary phenomenon or more reflective of an increasingly peaceful and stable world.

Killing War?
The Demise of War?
07 Jan 2013

In this podcast, Andrew Mack discusses what the long-term statistical trends are telling us i.e., we are fighting fewer wars and they are leading to fewer deaths. Despite this good news, he also warns us that the same evidence cannot be used to make predictions about the future. More Is the World Becoming More Peaceful?
08 Jan 2013

While both the legitimacy and utility of war have declined in recent history, it remains unclear whether this trend is permanent. In this multimedia piece, courtesy of our partners at the Carnegie Council, Steven Pinker and Robert Kaplan discuss whether the world is becoming more peaceful or not. More Triangulating Peace
09 Jan 2013

With some notable exceptions, why has organized violence recently lost much of its utility and value? John O'Neal and Bruce Russet argue that this trend is attributable to a 'triangulation' of factors: democracy, economic interdependence and the growing role of international organizations. More Capitalism, Peace, and the Historical Movement of Ideas
10 Jan 2013

Most people may now believe that war is an unambiguous evil, but the widespread belief in this idea is actually a recent one. In this piece, John Mueller traces the idea's history and the role 'norm entrepreneurs' have played in its spread. More The New Aztecs
11 Jan 2013

According to Zhivan Alach, Western militaries have abandoned "total war". Instead, they have returned to the ritualistic and restrained methods associated with civilizations such as the Aztecs, which may help provide yet another explanation for the apparent demise of war in recent times. More

Security Watch
Losing the Violence Monopoly
07 Jan 2013

According to the Carnegie Council's Stephen Costello, renewed violence in Kenya underscores the country's political and economic weaknesses. Indeed, these weaknesses reflect a state that is becoming increasingly untenable, even as it heads towards general elections in March. More The Russia-Nigeria Aluminum Deal: Not Just a Simple Story of Business
08 Jan 2013

Nigeria's dubious sale of ALSCON, its national aluminum smelting company, to the Russian steel conglomerate Rusal has raised eyebrows. As Ioannis Mantzikos observes, Moscow may be turning a blind eye to corruption and other illegal activities in order to secure its share of African natural resources. More

Interview with Robert Muggah on Armed Conflict and Security

09 Jan 2013

In an interview with the IPI's Global Observatory, Robert Muggah discusses the changing patterns of armed conflict and the relationship between personal security and development. He also explains how international actors are responding to these changing patterns and their impact on fragile states. More Iraq A Year After the Withdrawal of International Forces
10 Jan 2013

Iraq's security forces have managed to maintain a degree of stability since American combat troops left the country, writes Alex Mackenzie. He reminds us, however, that Baghdad's security problems are far from over. A growing sectarian divide and political unrest in Syria are just two of them. More Public-Private Partnership Programs are Key in the Asia-Pacific
11 Jan 2013

Although cyber security is moving up on most governments' defense agendas, Ria Baldevia argues that not enough is being done in certain counties. In the Asia-Pacific region, for instance, private-public partnerships based on US models would significantly improve local cyber-defenses. More

ISN Blog
The UN Arms Trade Treaty: An Inadequate Solution for Illicit Weapons Trafficking?
07 Jan 2013

Two thousand people die each day as a result of illegally traded arms. In order to curtail this trade, AnneYolande Bilala argues ATT member nations must act more proactively, which includes controlling the end-use of weapons. More India's Policy Towards Central and Eastern Europe
08 Jan 2013

According to Patryk Kugiel, the 2012 ChinaCentral and Eastern Europe (CEE) Economic Forum highlighted the important role emerging economies can play in Eastern Europe. To illustrate his point, he explores the opportunities for greater cooperation between India and this portion of Europe. More A Dead End? The Northern Limit Line and the Future of Inter-Korean Relations
09 Jan 2013

Given Pyongyang's continued refusal to recognize the Northern Limit Line as the maritime border between North and South Korea, Stephen Ranger and Yang Gyu Kim suggest the latters new President needs to bide her time before reengaging the North on this issue. More Pacific NATO?
10 Jan 2013

What role should a wider NATO play in the Asia-Pacific region? According to Julian Lindley-French, the answer depends on the Alliance overhauling its conception of collective defense and becoming a genuine expeditionary force. More Boko Haram and Nigeria's Pervasive Violence
11 Jan 2013

According to the CFR's John Campbell, Nigeria is in serious trouble. While Boko Haram continues to impose its own brand of Islamic law in the North, growing militancy in the Niger Delta and widespread ethniceconomic clashes elsewhere continue to destabilize this key West African state. More

Video
New Perspectives on Peacebuilding Branka Marijan and David Welch discuss evolving approaches to peacebuilding in this video. Given the complexity of national reconstruction, they suggest we move away from familiar institutional approaches and account for local knowledge and contexts in our rebuilding efforts. More Stefan Wolff: The Path to Ending Ethnic Conflicts In this video, Stefan Wolff demonstrates that the number of wars has steadily decreased in the last 20 years.

He extracts critical lessons from Northern Ireland, Liberia, Timor Leste and other conflicts to show that leadership, diplomacy and institutional design are the three most effective weapons in waging peace. More Robert D. Kaplan on the Rise of Asia A recent report stated that by 2030 Asia will exceed the combined global power of Europe and the United States. According to Colin Chapman and Robert Kaplan, however, Asia is a big continent with conflicting cultures, strategies, policies and economies. A lot can happen between now and 2030. More

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