16/032012

Cost effectiveness of non-structural measures Some considerations

Chris Zevenbergen

Content

the paradox of optimization deep uncertainty context

1/26/13

Presentation Title

Cost-Benefit Analysis New Orleans Flood protection System*

Rational design of flood protection systems hampered by uncertainties arisen from: the influence of climate change on future weather extreme events; impacts of large scale disasters.

* Hallegate, Stanford Universty (2005)

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Presentation Title
3

Actual flood risk ?

Risk = P x I

Actual flood risk ?

Actual flood risk ?

High risk Risk= constant

Low risk

Actual flood risk ?

High risk Risk= constant

Low risk

Actual flood risk ?

High risk Risk= constant

Low risk

Setting the scene: flood risk management

Current policies in practice (COST C22, 2009):

reduce flood probabilities; protection levels do not comply with economic trade-off; extreme events (e.g. overtopping) not taken into account.

Decision makers call for:

high ends optimal safety level

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Presentation Title

Flooding system = Complex Adaptive System (CAS)

buildings & networks

Decision making: options available?

Standards Risk based approach => what do we accept? Cost Benefit analysis (CBA) => economic optimization Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) => societal consequences

Effect based approaches/ bottom-up=> tipping points New DDS tools (RDM): exploratory modelling Opportunistic/synergistic adaptation

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Presentation Title

11

Costs & benefits: large uncertainties

Cost Construc)on M&O

Benets Vic)ms avoided Prevented damage: -direct -indirect 1st & 2nd order economic benets
Presentation Title
12

1/26/13

Conclusions & recommendations

no one best solution

strongly context related deep uncertainty

tend to favor effect based (resilient) approaches need for (new & better) frameworks (socialeconomic) for decision makers to be able to act How to improve sharing of information ? How to scale-up action ?