12 Feb.

09

United-States : Trade deficit narrowed in January

United-States : MBA mortgage applications slumped february 2nd

U.S. stocks gained, led by banks

UK Claimant count rate

since 1999

Source : Bloomberg
The United-Kingdom unemployment increase for a 12th month in January at 3.8% to its
highest level in almost a decade. In the mean time the number of people receiving jobless
benefits rose 73 000 to 1.23 million the most since July 1999 (see p.3)

Indexes Price % 5 Days Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd

DJIA 7939,5 -0,09% -9,54% EUR/USD 1,2918 1,00% -7,54%
S&P 500 833,7 0,28% -7,70% EUR/JPY 116,38 0,20% -8,14%
Nasdaq 1530,5 1,06% -2,95% USD/JPY 90,08 1,26% -0,61%
CAC 40 3027,7 -1,35% -5,91% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DAX 4530,1 0,83% -5,82% Brent $/b 44,3 -2,91% 6,08%
Eurostoxx 50 2267,9 -1,30% -7,34% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 193,1 -0,76% -2,64% Gold $/oz 939,5 2,77% 6,55%
FTSE 100 4234,3 0,23% -4,51% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 7705,4 1,54% -13,03% Central Banks* 0,25 2,00 0,11
Shanghai Comp 2248,1 7,26% 23,47% Overnight 0,20 1,10 0,11
Sensex (India) 9552,2 4,53% -0,99% 3 Months 0,30 1,05 0,25
MICEX (Russia) 726,7 14,28% 17,30% 10 Years** 2,78 3,18 1,27
Bovespa (Brasil) 40845,6 1,79% 8,78% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Refi
** Euro: German Bund rate Source : Bloomberg
Monthly Bulletin of the ECB
The Bank of Korea is expected to make its sixth rate cut in four months. Win Thin of Brown Brothers sees Chile cutting
by 100 basis points.
15th Annual Pharma Summit in London
SIMM, the Madrid International Fashion Show (Feb 11th –Feb 13rd)
Miami International Boat Show (Feb 11h –feb 15h)
World Ski Championship (Val d’Isère, France) Fev 3rd – 15th
Abraham Lincoln 200th birthday

Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous

00.50 am Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price January -0,6 %, +0,3% -1,2%,+1,1%YoY
10.00 am Japan European Central Bank published monthly report February
11.00 am Euro area Industrial Production December -2,5%,-9,5% YoY -1,6%,-7,7% YoY
02.30 pm United States Advanced retail Sales January +0,0 % -0,8% -2,7%
02.30 pm United States Retail Sales ( less auto ) January +0,1 % -0,4% -3,1%
02.30 pm United States Initial jobless claims February 7 th 610 000 626 000
02.30 pm United States Continuing claims December 4 800 000 4 788 000
16.00 pm United States Business Inventories December -0,9% -0,7%

! " #

Fortis rejette BNP Paribas, c’est l’impasse en Belgique,

Results La Tribune, p 6
ABB / BT / Cap Gemini / Diageo / EDF / ENI / Total / Rio
Tinto / KBC / Renault / Lagardere / British Land / Coca Plus le rouble se dévalue, plus la colère monte,
Cola Co Challenges, n° 155, p 36
Geithner at the Improv
The Wall Street Journal, p 13
U.S. reaches a deal on stimulus package
The Wall Street Journal, p 31
China’s exports slowed dramatically
The Wall Street Journal, p 12
Purchasing US Treasury bonds remains “only option” for
China
Financial Times, p 13
Madoff’s wife took $15.5m ahead of his arrest
Financial Times, p 13
Le fret maritime de minerai reprend des couleurs
Les Echos, p 36

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 Economic data preview

Watch in the United-States the release of the retail sales for January due at 02.30 pm .The retail sales are expected to remain stable.
Indeed this data is released in value terms and prices increased very slightly in January explaining why the retail sales should remain
stable.

Watch in the Euro area the release of the industrial production for December due at 11.00 am , expected to sharply decrease as the
recession is sharply increasing affecting massively the industrial sector which represent 20% of the GDP of the euro area./JB

ate

ECONOMY
ND
UNITED-STATES : MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS SLUMPED FEBRUARY 2
After dropping to a record low January 23rd at -38.8 and rebounding January 30 th at 8.6, MBA mortgage applications dropped again at -
24.5 February 2 th showing clearly that last rebound was mainly due to refinancing. Nevertheless this economic indicator remains
extremely cyclical.

UNITED-STATES : TRADE DEFICIT NARROWED IN JANUARY

The U.S trade deficit narrowed from $ - 41.6 billion in November to $-39.9 billion in December or 4%. This is the smallest trade deficit in
almost 6 years. In we look into the breakdown, imports in December dropped 5.5% to $ 173.7 billion from 183.9 billion as oil price fell,
foreign cars, trucks, clothing , furniture and household appliance from outside the U.S. declined; Exports in December fell 6 % from $ 142.3
to $ 133.8 as global economic slowdown reduce demand for American goods abroad especially cars, part and engines felling to their
lowest level since November 2004. Significant rise of the unemployment, credit crunch and global economic downturn underlined the fact
that imports and exports which both fell in December for the fifth straight month will slide further.

CHINA : EXPORTS DROPPED SHARPLY AND IMPORTS SLUMPED ON RECORD IN JANUARY

As a consequence of the global economic recession cutting drastically the demand for Chinese goods abroad, China’s export fell by the
most in almost 13 years at -17.5% in January. On the other hand as China economy is consequently slowing down imports reached their
lowest level on record at -43.1% in January underlining the deepening slump of the Chinese economy. Nevertheless and logically as
importation dropped at a faster pace than exportations the trade surplus rose to $39 billion in January , the second biggest on record after
its peak at $ 40 billion in November 2008.

GERMANY : INFLATION RATE FALLS TO FIVE YEARS LOW

Germany’s inflation’s rate dropped to the lowest level in almost five years at ( -0.5%,+0.9% YoY) in January. This drop matching the
forecast is not a surprise as it is led by the drop of energy prices and especially oil prices. Indeed the decline is mainly explained by a 15%
drop in prices for petroleum products from a year earlier. Oil price have retreated around 73 % since its peak of July 2008 at $ 147 a
barrel. Inflation is no more a threat in Germany but recession is deepening which put more pressure on the European Central Bank to cut
its leading rate in March.

UNITED-KINGDOM : UNEMPLOYMENT HITS 10 YEARS HIGH IN JANUARY

The United-Kingdom unemployment increase for a 12 th month in January at 3.8% to its highest level in almost a decade. In the mean time
the number of people receiving jobless benefits rose 73 000 to 1.23 million the most since July 1999. This sharp rise of the unemployment
is led by the financial (credit crunch) , construction and economic crisis ( sharp recession ) hitting the country. Indeed companies are
cutting jobs as global demand is slumping . The major risk now for the United Kingdom will be a deflation situation, meaning a situation in
witch the offer will be much higher than the demand, the second one to get adjusted to the first one will reduce its production meaning a
rise of bankruptcies and a rise of unemployment , reducing the demand increasing the deflation …/JB

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 U.S. stocks gained, led by banks
U.S. stocks gained, led by banks (Citigroup +10.15 %, Bank of America +9.17 %, JP Morgan +5.97 %, largest
rises in the DJIA, Morgan Stanley +10.20 %) as there is a feeling that the stimulus should boost future economic
growth. Other financials were upbeat: MasterCard +3.81 %, Ambac +7.02 %, AIG +4.35 %, Fannie Mae +9.09 %,
Freddie Mac +10.91 %, Marsh & Mc Lennan +14.43 %. As oil prices decreased (WTI at $35.94 /bbl, -1.61$), oil
companies (ExxonMobil -2.05 %, Chevron +0.20 %), oil services (Halliburton +0.27 %, Schlumberger -1.87 %) and
refiners (Valero -0.78 %, Sunoco +0.65 %) were mixed. With the exception of US Steel (-1.32 %), basic resources
rose: Alcoa +0.65 %, Nucor +1.70 %, Allegheny Tech +1.19 %, Freeport McMoran +2.31 %, Newmont Mining
+7.62 %. Techs were mixed (Cisco +0.75 %, Microsoft +2.18 %, Oracle +1.25 %, but Apple -1.03 %, Dell -1.53 %,
Research in Motion -14.51 %) while semiconductors were broadly lower: Nvidia -12.55 %, National Semiconductor
-3.71 %, Texas Instruments -1.76 %, Broadcom -1.43 %. Retailers were broadly higher: J.C. Penney +2.79 %, Wal
Mart +1.07 %, Nordstrom +0.91 %, Ann Taylor Stores +6.67 %. Telcos were mixed: AT&T -0.49 %, Verizon -0.07
%, QWest -5.22 %, Sprint Nextel +7.80 %. Industrials (Boeing +0.30 %, Caterpillar +0.68 %, General Electric
$%&'(
+2.75 %, Ford +1.64 %, General Motors +1.48 %), pharmaceuticals (Merck +2.45 %, Pfizer +2.20 %), media
)*+,'- (Interpublic +10.24 %, Omnicom +2.07 %, Viacom +2.09 %) were up. Airlines (Delta -5.41 %, AMR -3.88 %,
Continental -11.85 %, JetBlue -3.76 %, Frontier -8.00 %) and transport (Burlington Northern -1.34 %, Union
Pacific -3.10 %) were down. Homebuilders were mixed: KB Home +1.57 %, Pulte Homes +6.96 %, DR Horton +3.92
%, Centex +4.92 %, Lennar +4.21 %, but Hovnanian -2.34 %, Toll Bros -1.13 %, Beazer Homes -5.46 %. Consumer
stocks were mixed as well: Colgate +0.42 %, Coca-Cola +1.48 %, Pepsico +2.18 %, but Nike -1.64 % (may cut up to
4 % of its workforce), Mc Donald’s -0.35 %, Starbucks -2.51 %.

AFTER SESSION: Buffalo Wild Wings (+17.53 %) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (+7.39 %) rose on good results.
NetApp (-6.58 %) fell after Q3 sales missed analysts’ estimates.

This morning (06.50 GMT) INDEX FUTURES for March expiry were down: DJIA -0.18 %, S&P 500 -0.18 % %,
Nasdaq -0.23 %./JFV
Treasuries gained on Wednesday, with lack of confidence in government plans to tackle the credit crisis pushing
yields down for a second day, even as the U.S. Treasury auctioned the largest amount of 10-year notes ever. The
Treasury sold a record $21 billion of 10-year securities at a yield of 2.818%. Bidders offered $2.21 for every dollar
available, compared with an average of $2.34 at the last four auctions of new notes. Indirect bidders, a class of
investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 37.8% of the sale, the highest in a year. That metric is viewed as
.!/01
an indicator of whether foreign investors, holding about half of all U.S. debt, continue to find the asset attractive,
)*+,'- especially as the government embarks on a historic supply spree to fund a myriad of programs aimed at stabilizing
financial markets and stimulating economic growth. The government plans to finish its refunding operations today with
the sale of a record $14 billion in long bonds
(Treasurys 2-year rate at 0.91 %, +3 bps, 5-year rate at 1.74 %, -1 bp, 10-year rate at 2.77 %, -3 bps, 30-year rate
at 3.44 %, -5 bps). The 10-year Treasury U.S./Europe rate spread decreased to -42 bps. vs. -54 bps/JFV
Japan’s stocks fell to a three month low losing 253.33 or 3.02% at 7,692.61 as more companies cut earnings
forecast and on concerned about the efficiency of the government plan to boost the economy. More generally
Asian fell for a fourth day led by financials and consumer related companies on concern about the U.S. measures to
end the recession and the financial turmoil in the United-States. In Tokyo most of the stock dropped. Financials went
down(Mizuho-4.57%,Sumitomo-4.25%) and Nomura Holdings the country number one brokerage plunged 7.9% to a
26 year low on concern U.S. President Obama will not take concrete and efficient measures to end the financial crisis.
-&)0 $%&'(
Heavy industry sector went down ( Fanuc -5.32%) and Daikin Industries Japan’s biggest air-conditioner maker ,
)*+,'- dropped 4.9% after cutting its profit forecast by more than a half. Component sector went down( CSK Holdings -
14.73%,Kyocera -4.95%,Fujitsu-4.84%), electronic sector went down( Olympus -7.35%,Panasonic-5.13%,car sector
went down( Suzuki -3.60%,Bridgestone-3.32%),Distribution sector went down(Fast retailing-4.89%),Pharmacy and
chemistry sector went down ( Astellas Pharma -4.37%,Terumo -4.22%)and finally oil sector went down on the
concern about the global economic outlook and on fears about Obama rescue plan to boost the economy( INPEX -
3.75%)./JB
Crude oil prices fell for a fourth straight session after US crude oil inventories rose again for a seventh week to an
18 month high. US crude oil invrentories rose.4.7 million barrels last week after a 7.2 million increase the previous
week and while the consensus was “only expecting” an increase of 2.7 million barrels. At 350.8 million barrels, last
week' s inventories level was the highest since July 2007. However the US distillate inventories and the gasoline
&2 inventory fell respectively by 2.6 million (+500 000 expected) and 1 million (-1.5 million expected) barrels. The oil prices
also retreated after the International Energy Agency, said in a report that this year' s global oil demand will fall by 1
million barrels a day, or 1.1%, from last year. If realized, it would be the biggest yearly drop since 1982. The WTI
dropped 4.29 % at $35.94 a barrel while the Brent only lost 0.59 % at $43.88 a barrel. This morning, the future for
March delivery were flat at $35.97 a barrel./ LC
The euro weakened for a third day against the yen on speculation industrial output in the 16 nation region slid the
most in almost 23 years, supporting the case for the central bank to cut interest rates. The Sterling Pound fell to 1.4387
/*,3 GBP/USD vs. 1.4397 yesterday and 1.4898 earlier this week.
(1.2906 EUR/USD vs. 1.2923 yesterday morning, 116.18 EUR/JPY vs. 116.25, 90.02 USD/JPY vs. 89.95). /JFV

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 Europe America Asia
Indices 11/2/09 % Chg Indices 11/2/09 % Chg Indices 12/2/09 % Chg
EuroStoxx 50 2268 -0,01% DJIA 7940 +0,64% Nikkei 7705 -3,03%
DJ 600 193 -0,36% S&P 500 834 +0,80% Topix 760 -2,29%
FTSE 100 4234 +0,50% NASDAQ 1531 +0,38% Hong Kong 13274 -1,99%
DAX (XETRA) 4530 +0,55% TSX 8738 -0,91% Singapore 1699 -1,37%
CAC 40 3028 +0,23% Bolsa (Mexico) 19447 -1,91% South Korea 1180 -0,87%
AEX (Pays Bas) 253 +0,76% Bovespa (Br.) 40846 -0,88% Thailand 442 -0,56%
SMI (Suisse) 5124 -0,41% Merval (Argent.) 1108 +0,26% Indonesia 1318 -0,53%
S&P / MIB (Italie) 19064 -0,80% IPSA (Chili) 12482 -1,91% Taiwan 4466 -2,39%
IBEX 35 (Esp.) 8356 -0,49% IGBVL (Pérou) 6899 +0,38% China 2248 -0,56%
BVL (Portugal) 2143 +0,66% India 9549 -0,69%
Source : Bloomberg
Euro Stoxx 50 % Euro Stoxx 50 % Dow Jones % Dow Jones % Nikkei 225 % Nikkei 225 %
SANOFI-AVENTIS 8,06 AXA SA -7,20 CITIGROUP INC 10,15 -2,28
DU PONT (E.I.) DE NEMOURS KOBE STEEL LTD 6,84 -14,73
CSK HOLDINGS CORP
3,02LOUIS VUI
LVMH MOET HENNESSY -4,65
TELECOM ITALIA SPA JPMORGAN CHASE &5,97
CO EXXON MOBIL CORP-2,05 KUBOTA CORP 6,05 -14,12
YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORP
DOWN

DOWN

DOWN
UP

UP

UP
3,00 SHARES
DAIMLER AG-REGISTERED AEGON NV -4,09 4,35 GROUP
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL WALT DISNEY CO/THE -1,39 5,30 CO LTD
SUMITOMO METAL MINING TOKAI CARBON CO -8,78
LTD
SIEMENS AG-REG 2,19 GROUPE DANONE -4,04 GENERAL ELECTRIC2,75
CO PROCTER & GAMBLE -0,56
CO NIPPON OIL CORP 4,47 ALPS ELECTRIC CO-7,94
LTD
2,02
PHILIPS ELECTRONICS NV RENAULT SA -2,40 MERCK & CO. INC. 2,45 AT&T INC -0,49 4,32
EAST JAPAN RAILWAY CO DAIWA SECURITIES-7,83
GROUP I

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Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

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