PROBABILITY Absolute and probable truth absolute - absolutely true is one which is implied by the premises on which it rests.

e. g. A >B, and B>C, then A must be larger than C. The Laws of Chance (Galileo Galilei in about 1620) If 3 dice are thrown at the same time, what is the total score which will occur most frequently? (experienced dice players believed 10 and 11) - a dice has 6 faces possible outcomes 6 probability then is 1 chance in 6 throws - 2nd dice thrown (of the same time of possible outcomes) 6 x 6 = 36 - to make a total of 2, you must throw a 1 and 1, and likely to occur only once in 36 throws. Whereas, a total score of 4 can be made with a 1 and 3, a 2 and 2, or a 3 and 1 so this total can be expected on an average of 3 times in every 36 throws. if you bet on a total of 4, you will 3x oftener than on 2. - for 3 dice - 6 x 6 x 6 = 216 possible outcomes First Law - the proportionate law (as relative frequency) Whenever something (such as throwing a dice) can have more than one result, If all the possible results have an equal chance of occurring, the probability of any one of them occurring in a single trial will be the proportion which that particular result bears to all the possible results. e.g. a dice - a specified face will show with a single throw of the dice will be 1/6 cards - getting ace of hearts = 1 / 52 or 0.0192 or 1.92% Second Law - the law of averages Whenever something (such as throwing a dice) can have more than one result, if all the possible results have an equal chance of occurring, the results that have will be observed in a number of trials (throws) will generally vary to some extent from the inherent proportions but the extent of this variation will become progressively less as the number of trials is increased. eg. if you throw a dice, it is rarely that you get a 1,2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 (in any order) in those 6 throws. - the average will thus be 1/6 - 2 heads in a group of 4 tosses = 1/2 - tossed a coin 10 times and get 4 heads (first trial) 4/10 = .40 - tossed a coin 200 times and yielded 106 heads = 106 / 200 = 0.53 Third Law - the Addition Law

whenever something (such as throwing a dice) can have more than one result, the probability of alternative results occurring in a single trial will be the sum of their individual probabilities. e.g. calculating of getting either a 2 or a 3 in a single throw of a dice each number has a chance of 1/6, so this law tells us that the chance of getting one or other score will be 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6, i.e. one chance in 3 eg. total score of 4 with 2 dice - 1 and 3 - 2 and 2 - 3 and 1 three chances in 36 = 3/36 eg. chance of drawing an ace of hearts of the ace of spades blindly from a normal pack of playing cards 1/52 + 1/52 = 2/52 , i.e. one chance in 36 Fourth Law - the Multiplication Law Whenever something (such as throwing a dice) can have more than one result, the probability of getting any particular combination of results in 2 or more independent trials (whether consecutively or simultaneously) will be the product of their individual probabilities. - order of occurrence is not importance - events must be independent eg. the probability of getting two 1s by throwing a dice twice = 1/36; one chance in 36. - the probability of getting a score of 3 and 1 with 2 dice if the order is not specified will be one chance in 18. 2 ways (a 3 with a first dice and a 1 with the second dice, or a 1 with the first dice and a 3 with the second dice); each of these ways has a probability of 1/36. 1/36 + 1/36 = 1/18 - getting any particular combination of #s with the 2 dice (say, a 3 with the first dice, and 1 with the second dice) eg. of multiplication -probability of drawing any specified card (say, the jack of diamonds) from a shuffled pack of 52 playing cards is 1/52, so the probability of getting a specified card from each of 2 such packs (say, the jack of diamonds from one pack and the green of diamonds from the other one) will be the product of their individual probabilities (which is the same as their proportions) which is 1/52 x 1/52 = 1 / 2,704; i.e. one chance in 2,704 eg. a bag contains 2 black marbles and 4 white ones. The marbles are identical in all respects except color. If 2 marbles are drawn blindly from the bag, what is the probability that they will both be black ones, if the first marble drawn is not put back

into the bag? 2/6 - probability of drawing black in the first draw 1/5 - possible probability in second draw