Market Outlook, 4th February, 2013

Market Outlook
February 4, 2013
Dealers Diary
Domestic Indices
The Indian market is expected to open flat today with a positive bias, mirroring
SGX Nifty which is trading marginally in the grain. Most of the Asian markets are
trading in the positive zone with gains in the range of 0.3% to 1.3%.
US markets rose higher on Friday buoyed by expectations of a mild recovery in the
economy and hopes that the Federal Reserve would continue with loose monetary
policy to support the growth. European markets too rose on Friday, tracking
positive news from US and improvement in PMI for non manufacturing sector
reported by China for January.
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(0.6) (113.8) 19,781
Nifty
(0.6)
(35.8)
5,999
MID CAP
(0.0)
(3.4)
6,968
SMALL CAP
(0.2)
(17.6)
7,056
BSE HC
0.8
62.4
8,079
BSE PSU
(0.6)
(43.3)
7,618
BANKEX
(0.8) (115.1) 14,465
Key benchmark indices in India dropped in choppy trade after the results of a
private survey showed that manufacturing output expanded at its slowest pace in
three months in January 2013 as new orders grew at a weak pace and as power
outages continued to hurt industrial activity. Sensex and Nifty sliding to the three
week closing low.
AUTO
(1.0) (108.1) 10,886
METAL
(0.8)
Markets Today
Dow Jones
1.1
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,828 / 6,012 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,920 20,058 / 6,040 6,081 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,828 / 6,012 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,690 19,598 / 5,970 5,942 levels.
NASDAQ
1.2
37.0
3,179
FTSE
1.1
70.4
6,347
Nikkei
0.5
52.7
11,191
(0.0)
(7.7)
23,722
Straits Times
0.3
8.5
3,291
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
Shanghai Com
1.4
33.6
2,419
SENSEX
19,598
19,690
19,828
19,920
20,058
NIFTY
5,942
5,970
6,012
6,040
6,081
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
0.2
0.1
$52.8
WIT
0.8
0.1
$9.6
IBN
4.3
2.0
$47.8
HDB
1.2
0.5
$40.7
News Analysis
Auto sales numbers January 2013

Cigarette packs may show nicotine levels
Ultratech eyes ABG cement unit
Ceat registers a 23.8% yoy growth in tyre production in December 2013
3QFY2013 Result Review: Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Marico, Indian Bank,
Corporation Bank, TVS Motor, TTK Healthcare
3QFY2013 Result Preview: Bank of Baroda, United Spirits, ITNL
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
5,470
4,428
1,042
22,230
22,230
481
877
(396)
(4,713)
(4,713)
FII Derivatives (February 01, 2013)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
793
893
(100)
7,117
Stock Futures
1,514
1,773
(258)
31,184
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Essar Oil
Price (`)
Losers
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
92
7.3
Corporation Bank
428
(6.2)
GMR Infra
20
6.9
Tata Motors
285
(4.4)
Pidilite Inds
246
6.0
Jaiprakash Asso
Videocon Inds
214
4.7
CESC
324
4.1
www.angelbroking.com
BSE IT
Global Indices
Hang Seng
Indian ADR
83
(4.2)
Oriental Bank
322
(3.8)
Mangalore Ref
62
(3.6)
(82.3) 10,524
0.2
15.8
9,375
(0.4)
(26.3)
6,367
(Pts)
(Close)
Chg (%)
149.2 14,010
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
969
634
1,179
859
839
93
Declines
Unchanged
Net Inflows (January 31, 2013)
MFs
OIL & GAS
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
2,387
NSE
11,993
Market Outlook
February 4, 2013
Auto sales numbers January 2013

Ashok Leyland
Ashok Leyland (AL) reported in-line volumes in January 2013 as Dost sales
recovered after an unexpected fall in December 2012. The Dost volumes surged
79.2% sequentially to 3,698 units. The medium and heavy commercial vehicle
(MHCV) segment however, continued its downward momentum and witnessed a
significant decline of 25.4% yoy. Nonetheless, on a sequential basis, MHCV
volumes grew by 31.2%.
Tata Motors
Tata Motors (TTMT) reported lower-than-expected results for January 2013 with
total volumes registering a decline of 29.5% yoy (-6% mom) to 61,660 units led by
sharp decline of 28.1% yoy (-6.4% mom) in domestic sales. Light commercial
vehicle sales continued momentum posting a strong growth of 14.7% yoy (down
9.2% mom). However, MHCV sales witnessed a considerable decline of 53.6% yoy
leading to a 11.8% yoy (9.8% mom) decline in commercial vehicle sales. The
MHCV segment continues to be impacted by the slowdown in industrial activity in
the country and due to lack of freight demand. On the passenger vehicle front,
total domestic volumes fell sharply by 55.6% yoy, largely on account of 60.3% yoy
(flat mom) decline in passenger car sales.
Mahindra and Mahindra

Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) reported a modest volume growth of 4.5% yoy
(11.5% mom) in January 2013 as the farm equipment segment continued to post
decline in sales. However, the automotive segment registered a healthy growth of
10.7% yoy (9.3% mom) driven by continued momentum in the passenger vehicle
segment (robust growth of 32.9% yoy) on the back of the new launches XUV5OO,
Quanto and Rexton. The three-wheeler and exports segments however registered a
sluggish growth with volumes declining by 5.1% and 50.4% yoy respectively. In the
farm-equipment segment, MM posted a decline of 9.8% yoy led by weakness in
domestic markets, which posted a decline of 8.6% yoy during the month.
Maruti Suzuki
Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) reported better-than-expected volumes in January 2013,
primarily driven by a strong sequential growth in the Mini segment led by the new
Alto. Total volumes registered a decline of 1.1% yoy; however they surged sharply
by 20% on a sequential basis to 114,205 units. On a sequential basis, the Mini
(up 41.7%), Compact (up 6.8%), Super Compact (up 30.5%) and the Utility Vehicle
(up 11.9%) segments were the primary drivers of growth resulting in a strong
25.5% growth in the domestic markets. Export sales however, posted a decline of
22.3% yoy (14.5% mom) during the month; thereby restricting the overall growth.
Hero MotoCorp
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) registered better-than-expected performance in January
with total sales posting a growth of 7.2% yoy (3% mom) to 557,797 units driven by
the new launches, Ignitor, Passion X-Pro and Maestro.
Market Outlook
February 4, 2013
Bajaj Auto
BJAUT reported an in-line volume growth of 2.9% yoy (1.1% mom) to 347,624
units driven by a healthy growth of 9.8% yoy (2% mom) in export sales. Domestic
sales however remained flat on a yoy as well as sequential basis. Motorcycle sales
grew by a modest 2.4% yoy (1% mom) driven by the new launches, Discover
125ST and Pulsar 200NS. The three-wheeler segment registered a healthy growth
of 6.5% yoy (1.5% mom) led by issue of fresh permits in states like Delhi,
Karnataka and Jaipur. During the month, the company launched a new 100cc
motorcycle, Discover T at a price of `50,500 ex. showroom Delhi.
TVS Motor
TVS Motor (TVSL) posted better-than-expected volumes in January 2013 registering
a total volume growth of 1.4% yoy (12.6% mom) to 175,931 units. On a
sequential basis, strong growth was witnessed across the two-wheeler product
segments with scooters posting a 24.8% growth and motorcycle sales registering a
growth of 7.2% led by Phoenix. The moped segment witnessed a growth of 12.9%
mom during the month. The three-wheeler sales too maintained momentum and
posted an impressive growth of 83.9% yoy (down 1.5% mom).
Cigarette packs may show nicotine levels

As per media reports Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) has
proposed to make it mandatory for companies to specify the amount of nicotine
and tar on cigarette packs. Citing the absence of adequate research facilities to
verify the amount of nicotine and tar in cigarettes, companies in India have
resisted the move for some time. If the new rule comes into place it would be a
negative for cigarette manufacturers such as ITC. We maintain our neutral rating
on ITC.
Ultratech eyes ABG cement unit

UltraTech Cement is in talks to purchase an incomplete 6.7mtpa cement plant in
Gujarat owned by ABG Cement (ABGCL). As per the media reports both the
companies have already finished three rounds of negotiations. While Ultratech is
believed to have offered US$130/tonne, ABG Cement is asking for
US$156/tonne. We believe that if the deal goes through it would be positive for
Ultratech as it would be able to consolidate its position in the Gujarat market
which is witnessing healthy demand for cement. We maintain our neutral rating on
Ultratech.
Ceat registers a 23.8% yoy growth in tyre production in

December 2013
As per the filing with the BSE, Ceat has registered a strong 23.8% yoy growth in
tyre production in December 2013. The growth was led by a strong 42.7% and
22.8% yoy growth in the motorcycle and small commercial vehicle segments
respectively. The passenger vehicle segment too registered a strong growth of
Market Outlook
February 4, 2013
15.9% yoy during the month. The companys radial facility at Halol continues to
ramp-up and registered a growth of 109% yoy on a low base of last year. At `105,
the stock is trading at attractive levels of 2.6x FY2014E earnings. We continue to
maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `163.
3QFY2013 Result Review

Bharti Airtel (CMP: `330 / TP: Under review / Upside: -)
For 3QFY2013, Bharti Airtels (Bharti) revenue as well as operating margins came
in-line with, however its bottom-line disappointed because of higher interest
charges, forex loss and higher tax. The company reported flat revenue growth with
revenues coming in at `20,253cr. During 2QFY2013, Bharti had ~`600cr of gain
due to a TDSAT favorable ruling so adjusting to that, revenues would have grown
by 3% qoq, largely in line with expectations. The Indian mobility business reported
decent KPIs with 4.4% qoq growth in MOU to 435min. Mobile traffic grew by 3.0%
qoq to 240bn min. Average revenue per minute (ARPM) remained flat qoq at
`0.43/min. Consequently, the average revenue per user (ARPU) grew by 4.3% qoq
to `185/month. Churn level came back to comfortable position after seven
quarters and stood at 5.9%. In USD terms, the revenue from Zain Africa increased
by 3.3% qoq to US$1,133mn, as MOU increased by 4.5% qoq to 144min. The
ARPU, however, declined by 2.4% qoq to US$6.2/month. ARPM declined
substantially by 6.7% qoq to 4.3US/min, as traffic growth was driven on the back
of discounted on-net minutes as well as tariff cut in Nigeria.
Bhartis consolidated EBITDA margin declined by 78bp qoq to 30.5% qoq. This
was because of higher network costs. Segment-wise, India and South Asia, and
Africa reported 73bp and 70bp margin decline to 30.2% and 26.5%, respectively.
PAT came in at `284cr, down 61% qoq, hit by higher interest costs, forex
fluctuations (`216cr forex loss) and higher tax expense with tax rate coming in at
~70%. Tax rate increased as one deferred tax asset in Africa had to be derecognized.
On the domestic business front, despite the festival season telecom operators did
not resort to various discounts and promotions to drive subscriber additions.
Recently, telecom operators have reduced discounts and promotional vouchers,
which would lead to improvement in realized tariffs and in turn to ARPM. Africa
operations are expected to continue to weigh upon the companys performance.
The companys board has elevated its international operations head Manoj Kohli
to the post of managing director. The target price is currently under review.
Y/E
March
Sales OPM
(` cr)
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
80,353 30.9
3,249
8.6
6.1
38.6
2.3
7.5
2.3
FY2014E
86,654 31.3
4,483
11.8
7.8
28.0
2.2
6.6
2.1
Market Outlook
February 4, 2013
BHEL (CMP: `225 / TP: - / Upside: - )

For 3QFY2013, Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) disappointed both on top-line and
bottom-line front. Top-line was below our expectations and street estimates
declining by 4.9% yoy to `10,220cr (due to revenue deferrals). On the EBITDA
front, the company's margin came in lower at 16.0% (against our estimate of
17.8%), contracting by 338bp yoy. Consequently, PAT declined by 17.5% yoy
`1,425cr. Bhels order book has witnessed continuous decline in last few quarters
due to weak order infows and currently stands at `1,13,700cr, a decline of 22.4%
yoy. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock as we expect tepid
order flow to continue going forward.
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
March
(` cr)
P/BV EV/EBITDA
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
FY2013E
47,801 18.5
6,025
24.6
33.5
9.2
2.7
5.5
1.0
FY2014E
43,757 18.0
5,346
21.8
24.5
10.3
2.3
6.3
1.1
(x)
(x)
EV/Sales
(x)
Marico (CMP: `230/TP: - /Upside :- )

For 3QFY2013, Marico posted a 10.9% yoy growth in top-line to `1,164cr,
which was below our estimates. Volume growth for the quarter stood at 9%.
Domestic consumer business posted value and volume growth of 16% yoy and
15% yoy respectively. The international business posted a flat performance on
the top-line front due to challenging business environment in some of the
countries in which the company has operations. On a constant currency basis
the company posted a de-growth of 3% yoy on the top-line front due to degrowth in Middle East and strikes in Bangladesh. OPM rose by 241bp on a yoy
basis to 13.9% aided by 353bp yoy expansion in gross margins due to lower
copra prices. Average copra prices in 3QFY2013 were about 23% lower on a
yoy basis. The companys advertising expenses as a % of sales went up by
90bp on a yoy basis, which offset the decline in copra prices to some extent.
Net profit rose by 21.6% yoy to `102cr, aided by superior operating
performance. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
FY2013E
4,840
FY2014E
5,643
PAT EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
13.6
415 6.4
26.3
35.8
7.4
23.3
3.2
13.6
523 8.1
23.3
28.3
6.0
19.6
2.7
(` cr)
Indian Bank - (CMP: `203 / TP: `245 / Upside: 20.9%)

For 3QFY2013, Indian Bank reported muted operating performance, as its
operating income and operating profit declined by 4.7% and 17.9% yoy,
respectively. Provisioning expenses for the bank increased by 74.3% yoy and
hence earnings at PBT level declined by 50.2% yoy. The bank witnessed lower
effective tax rate of 1.8% during the quarter compared to 22.1% in
3QFY2012, which limited the decline in net profit to 37.1% yoy.
On the asset quality front, the bank witnessed substantial deterioration qoq, as
gross and Net NPA levels jumped up sequentially by 60.6% and 70.0%,
respectively, on an absolute basis. We await clarity from the management on
the substantial deterioration witnessed in the asset quality front. Gross and Net
Market Outlook
February 4, 2013
NPA ratio came higher sequentially by 112bp and 84bp, respectively to 3.2%
and 2.2%. The banks PCR dipped sequentially by 974bp to 61.2%. At the
CMP, the stock is trading at valuations of 0.7x FY2014E ABV. We recommend
Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `245.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
ROA
ROE
P/E
P/ABV
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
5,902
3.2
1,822
41.3 247.0
1.2
18.4
4.9
0.8
FY2014E
6,563
3.2
1,901
43.1 280.2
1.1
16.8
4.7
0.7
March
Corporation Bank - (CMP: `428 / TP: `517 / Upside: 20.7%)

For 3QFY2013, Corporation Bank reported subdued operating performance,
as its operating income and operating profit declined by 2.5% and 8.1% yoy,
respectively, which was in-line with our expectations. Provisioning expenses for
the bank increased by 34.7% yoy, on account of higher slippages during the
quarter and hence earnings at PBT level declined by 32.7% yoy. The bank
witnessed lower effective tax rate of 14.1% during the quarter compared to
23.3% in 3QFY2012, which limited the decline in net profit to 24.6% yoy.
On the asset quality front, the bank witnessed sequentially deterioration, as
annualized slippage ratio jumped up to 2.8% from 1.8% in 2QFY2013,
leading to 17.2% and 25.6% qoq increase in gross and Net NPA levels,
respectively, on an absolute basis. The management has guided for significant
recoveries/upgrades, out of the 3QFY2013 slippages. Gross and Net NPA
ratio came higher sequentially by 21bp and 25bp, respectively to 2.2% and
1.6%. The banks PCR dipped sequentially by 242bp to 58%. At the CMP, the
stock is trading at valuations of 0.6x FY2014E ABV. We recommend Buy rating
on the stock with a target price of `517.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
ROA
ROE
P/E
P/ABV
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
4,835
2.0
1,555
105.0 603.6
0.9
17.5
4.1
0.7
FY2014E
5,570
2.2
1,479
99.8 688.8
0.8
14.8
4.3
0.6
March
TVS Motor (CMP: `43/ TP: `47/ Upside: 9%)

For 3QFY2013, TVS Motor Company (TVSL) reported lower-than-expected
results on the bottom-line front primarily owing to EBITDA margin pressures.
The EBITDA margin remained stable on a sequential basis at 5.9%, lower than
our expectations of 6.5%, led by higher promotional expenditure related to the
launch of Phoenix and the festival season.
TVSL registered a modest growth of 1.3% yoy (6.4% qoq) in its top-line to
`1,799cr due to a 2.1% yoy (up 6.7% qoq) decline in volumes led by the
slowdown in the two-wheeler industry and increasing competition. On the
operating front, the EBITDA margin came in at 5.9%, witnessing a decline of
130bp yoy (flat qoq) primarily due to higher promotional expenditure related
to the launch of Phoenix and also on account of the festival season. The rawmaterial cost as a percentage of sales however, remained stable on a yoy as
well as qoq basis. Consequently, the net profit posted a decline of 7.2% yoy
(up 16.1% qoq on higher volumes) to `52cr as against our expectations of
`59cr. On the positive side, interest expense declined 15.1% yoy (22.4% qoq)
Market Outlook
February 4, 2013
as the company reduced its interest bearing debt by `180cr in 9MFY2013. At

`43, TVSL is trading at an attractive valuation of 8.1x FY2014E earnings. We
therefore maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of
`47.
Y/E
March
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
(%)
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
7,019
6.0
202
4.3
16.4 10.0
1.6
3.8
0.2
FY2014E
7,827
6.3
251
5.3
18.0
1.4
2.9
0.2
8.1
TTK Healthcare (CMP: `496 / TP: 655/ Upside: 32%)

TTKH reported a mixed set of numbers for 3QFY2013. Top-line came in at `92cr,
a 6.4% increase on a yoy basis from `87cr in 3QFY2012 and 7.1% higher as
compared to our estimate of `86cr. However, the company reported a
disappointing EBITDA margin of 3.9% for the quarter, 327bp contraction on a yoy
basis from 7.2% in 3QFY2012 primarily due to margin contraction in
Pharmaceutical business and Medical Device business. Consequently, net profit
declined by 26% yoy to `3cr during the quarter as compared to `4cr in same
quarter last year. Going forward we expect the EBITDA margin to expand on
account of increasing contribution from high margin food business, thus resulting
in better profit. At the current market price, the stock is trading at EV/sales of 0.7x
for FY2014E, which we believe is attractive. Hence, we maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock with a target price of `655 based on a target
EV/sales of 1.0x for FY2014E.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
393
5.9
16
21.1
17.5
23.5
3.9
13.8
0.8
FY2014E
439
6.7
21
26.6
19.1
18.6
3.3
10.7
0.7
3QFY2013 Result Preview

Bank of Baroda - (CMP: `868 / TP: - / Upside: -)
Bank of India is scheduled to announce its 3QFY2013 results today. We expect the
bank to report NII growth of 14.0% yoy to `3,027cr. Non-interest income is
expected to decline by 24.9% yoy to `863cr. Operating expenses are expected to
be higher by 17.2% yoy, while provisioning expenses are expected to increase by
15.4% yoy. Net profit is expected to decline by 11.2% yoy to `1,145cr. At CMP, the
stock is trading at valuations of 1.0x FY2014E P/ABV. Currently, we have a Neutral
recommendation on the stock. The banks management has changed recently and
we would have a relook at our rating/outlook on the stock, post the results.
Y/E
March
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
(`)
ROA
ROE
P/E
P/ABV
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
15,284
2.5
4,518
109.6 743.7
0.9
15.5
7.9
1.2
FY2014E
18,032
2.6
5,679
137.7 858.4
1.0
17.1
6.3
1.0
Market Outlook
February 4, 2013
United Spirits (CMP: `1,866/TP: /Upside:-)

United Spirits (USL) is expected to announce its 3QFY2013 standalone results
today. We expect the top-line to grow by 17.7% yoy to `2,300cr. OPM is
expected to increase by 377bp yoy to 13.2%. Bottom-line is expected to grow
by 88.4% yoy to `89cr. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the
stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
FY2013E
10,289
FY2014E
11,421
PAT EPS
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
12.8
377 26.0
5.8
71.9
3.3
23.7
3.0
12.8
658 45.3
7.6
41.2
3.0
21.2
2.7
(` cr)
Note: Estimates for consolidated financials are furnished in the table
ITNL (CMP: `199 / TP: `225 / Upside: 13%)

We expect IL&FS Transportation Networks (ITNL) to post a strong set of numbers
for 3QFY2013 owing to healthy order book and pick up in execution. The
company's revenue is expected to grow strongly by 24.2% yoy to `1,575cr, led by
under-construction road BOT projects. We expect the company to register an
EBITDAM of 28.0%, down 503bp qoq, owing to higher contribution of the
comparatively low-margin E&C segment. Strong revenue growth is expected to
reflect in the company's earnings, which are expected to surge by 22.5% yoy to
`108cr. We recommend Accumulate rating on the stock with target price of `225.
Y/E
Sales OPM
March
(` cr)
PAT
(%) (` cr)
EPS ROE P/E P/BV

(`)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(%) (x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
6,564 27.2
510 26.3 17.0 7.6
2.7
6,564
27.2
FY2014E
7,054 27.4
564 29.0 16.3 6.9
2.7
7,054
27.4
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Bank of Baroda (04/02/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
1,302
1,290
1,301
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
962
770
25
954
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Rural Electrification (04/02/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
United Spirits (04/02/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
2,244
1,954
15
2,221
EBITDA
259
200
29
269
(4)
EBITDA margin (%)
11.5
10.2
67
47
Net profit
NHPC (05/02/2013)
12.1
43
39
73
Market Outlook
February 4, 2013
Particulars (` cr)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
904
862
1,701
(47)
EBITDA
409
379
121
239
EBITDA margin (%)
45.3
44.0
Net profit
226
212
783
(71)
3QFY13E
3QFY12
y-o-y (%)
2QFY13
q-o-q (%)
7.1
Cipla (06/02/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
2,040
1,711
19
2,146
(5)
EBITDA
500
391
28
677
(26)
EBITDA margin (%)
24.5
22.9
Net profit
360
270
31.5
33
500
Economic and Political News
Withdraw MAT on SEZs: Assocham

RBI to set up new monitoring system to check export data flaws
CCEA may take up coal price pooling proposal this week
Corporate News
BoB, BoI, Canara Bank cut lending rates by 0.25%

Govt grants Maharatna status to BHEL, GAIL
Bharti Airtel may issue bonds of up to $1 bn in FY13
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
(28)
Market Outlook
February 04, 2013
Result Calendar
Date
Company
February 02, 2013
Divi's Lab., Indian Bank, Relaxo
February 03, 2013

February 04, 2013
J & K Bank, Bank of Baroda, Rural Elec.Corp., United Spirits, ITNL, Taj GVK
February 05, 2013
NHPC, UCO Bank, United Bank

Cipla, Tech Mahindra, IRB Infra, MOIL, Apollo Tyres, Bajaj Electrical, Automotive Axle, J K Lakshmi Cements,
Honeywell Automation
Ambuja Cements, ACC, Aurobindo Pharma, Anant Raj, Prakash Industries, JK Tyre, CEAT, MRF, Jyothy Laboratories
M&M, Sun Pharma, Hindalco, Canara Bank, Cadila Healthcare, GMR Infra., Tata Chemicals, Bharat Forge, GSPL,
BGR Energy , Nagarjuna Const., Subros, Cravatex
Indraprasth Gas, Tata Comm, Godawari Ispat
February 06, 2013

February 07, 2013
February 08, 2013
February 09, 2013
February 10, 2013
February 11, 2013
ONGC, Tata Power Co., Britannia, Hexaware, Sadbhav Engg., Punj Lloyd, GIPCL, Dishman Pharma
February 12, 2013
Jindal Steel, Power Grid Corpn, SAIL, HPCL, Motherson Sumi, CESC, HT Media
February 13, 2013
Coal India, IOC, Tata Steel, BPCL, Madras Cements, PTC India, Finolex Cables
February 14, 2013
Tata Motors, GAIL, Dr Reddy's, CRISIL, Monnet Ispat, Page Industries, India Cements, FAG Bearings, Simplex Infra
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
February 5, 2013
2:25PM
Germany PMI Services
February 7, 2013
5:30PM
UK
6:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
3:00PM
UK
5:29PM
China
11:00AM
February 8, 2013
February 11, 2013
February 12, 2013
February 14, 2013
Value
Jan F
55.30
--
% Ratio
Feb 7
0.50
0.50
Feb 7
0.75
0.75
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Dec
(2.40)
--
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jan
14.10
20.00
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Jan
2.50
2.00
5:29PM
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Jan
6.30
--
5:29PM
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jan
(1.90)
--
3:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jan
2.70
--
11:00AM
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Dec
(0.10)
--
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Jan
7.18
--
12:30PM
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
4Q P
0.40
--
% Change
4Q A
(0.10)
--
Jan
0.26
--
BOE Announces rates
3:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
February 15, 2013
7:45PM
US
Industrial Production
February 20, 2013
3:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Jan
(12.10)
--
7:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jan
954.00
--
7:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Jan
909.00
--
7:00PM
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Jan
(0.20)
--
8:30PM
US
Existing home sales
Millions
Jan
4.94
--
7:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Jan
--
--
3:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Jan
2.20
--
February 21, 2013

February 22, 2013
Market Outlook
February 4, 2013
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
11.2
10.0
8.5
7.6
7.5
8.2
6.0
8.0
6.7
5.7
6.1
4.0
5.3 5.5 5.3
3.5
2.5
4.3
2.7
2.0
1.0
2.0
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
(0.7)
(0.1)
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
8.0
7.7
7.5
7.4
(2.0) (0.1)
(2.8) (1.3)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
7.7
May-12
(4.0)
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
(2.0)
Dec-11
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
Source: CSO, Angel Research
7.6
7.6
Services PMI
8.1
58.0
7.5
56.0
7.5
7.2
54.0
6.9
52.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
48.0
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
50.0
Dec-11
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
8.3
8.0
9.2
9.0
4QFY09
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Exports yoy growth
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
30.0
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.00
8.00
7.00
15.0
7.00
6.00
4.25
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
4.00
Jan-12
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
5.00
Dec-11
(30.0)
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
(15.0)
Feb-12
Jan-12
0.0
Market Outlook
February 04, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
132
2,566
1,466
1,686
14.8
14.8
7.0
8.1
18.9
16.3
4.0
3.4
22.6
22.5
1.8
1.6
United Phosphorus
Buy
132
170
5,825
8,421
9,263
16.5
16.5
15.0
17.0
8.8
7.7
1.3
1.1
15.6
15.5
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Accumulate
301
323
5,142
2,983
3,477
16.1
16.1
18.5
21.6
16.3
14.0
4.7
3.6
32.9
29.1
1.7
1.5
Apollo Tyres
Accumulate
87
96
4,385
13,713
15,341
11.2
11.2
12.5
14.8
7.0
5.9
1.3
1.1
20.2
19.9
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
25
28
6,559
12,910
14,836
8.8
9.6
1.5
2.2
16.6
11.1
2.2
2.0
9.3
13.4
0.6
0.5
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
352
531
928
1,103
9.7
10.4
22.4
32.6
15.7
10.8
1.9
1.7
12.1
16.2
0.6
0.5
Bajaj Auto
Neutral
2,053
59,420
20,775
23,889
18.5
19.0
107.6
126.4
19.1
16.3
7.9
6.2
45.8
42.8
2.5
2.1
Bharat Forge
Buy
230
278
5,358
6,754
7,565
15.5
15.7
18.8
23.2
12.3
9.9
2.1
1.8
18.5
19.7
1.0
0.8
Bosch India*
Neutral
9,130
28,667
9,973
11,320
17.8
18.0
396.2
455.7
23.1
20.0
4.3
3.7
18.8
18.2
2.5
2.1
CEAT
Buy
105
163
358
4,989
5,634
8.2
8.5
27.1
40.8
3.9
2.6
0.5
0.4
13.2
17.2
0.3
0.2
Exide Industries
Neutral
122
10,404
6,112
7,074
13.1
14.9
6.1
8.2
20.0
15.0
3.1
2.6
16.0
18.8
1.4
1.1
FAG Bearings*
Buy
1,507
1,807
2,505
1,715
1,939
17.6
18.4
127.7
150.6
11.8
10.0
2.3
1.9
21.7
21.1
1.2
1.0
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,813
1,923
36,210
23,990
27,038
13.8
14.6
105.8
120.2
17.1
15.1
6.9
5.6
44.3
41.0
1.2
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
116
165
476
7,517
8,329
6.6
6.6
37.2
41.3
3.1
2.8
0.5
0.5
18.8
17.8
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
886
998
54,396
40,035
46,272
11.5
11.6
54.4
62.1
16.3
14.3
3.6
3.0
24.2
23.2
1.1
0.9
Maruti
Neutral
1,609
46,477
42,304
51,088
7.5
8.7
64.4
92.9
25.0
17.3
2.8
2.4
11.6
14.9
0.9
0.7
Motherson Sumi
Neutral
200
11,754
24,285
27,317
6.7
7.2
8.1
10.6
24.9
18.9
5.2
4.3
22.9
24.7
0.6
0.6
Subros
Buy
27
35
163
1,286
1,479
9.4
9.7
2.6
5.1
10.4
5.4
0.6
0.5
5.6
10.3
0.4
0.4
Tata Motors
Buy
285
337
75,959 190,883 217,164
12.8
13.1
35.5
42.5
8.0
6.7
2.1
1.7
30.2
27.6
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Accumulate
43
47
2,024
7,019
7,827
6.0
6.3
4.3
5.3
10.0
8.1
1.6
1.4
16.4
18.0
0.2
0.2
Capital Goods
ABB*
Reduce
646
573
13,696
7,790
9,653
4.5
7.8
8.7
22.1
74.3
29.2
5.1
4.5
7.1
16.5
1.7
1.4
BGR Energy
Neutral
244
1,763
3,567
4,357
11.8
10.9
24.6
26.8
9.9
9.1
1.4
1.3
30.7
26.3
0.9
0.8
BHEL
Neutral
225
55,157
47,801
43,757
18.5
18.0
24.6
21.8
9.2
10.3
2.8
2.3
33.5
24.5
1.0
1.1
Blue Star
Buy
165
238
1,486
2,748
2,896
4.4
5.6
6.8
9.3
24.4
17.7
3.3
2.9
14.5
17.6
0.6
0.6
Crompton Greaves
Buy
106
129
6,819
12,136
13,790
3.8
6.3
3.3
6.9
32.2
15.5
1.9
1.7
5.8
11.5
0.6
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
41
51
339
2,794
3,048
10.6
10.6
9.2
11.7
4.5
3.5
0.5
0.4
11.9
13.5
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
60
78
1,531
6,909
7,907
6.2
7.2
5.4
8.8
11.0
6.8
1.3
1.1
17.0
23.6
0.4
0.4
LMW
Reduce
2,193
1,992
2,470
2,369
2,727
11.7
11.7
143.4
166.0
15.3
13.2
2.6
2.3
17.4
18.4
0.6
0.4
Thermax
Neutral
582
6,930
5,529
5,798
9.0
9.6
27.1
30.3
21.4
19.2
3.7
3.3
18.6
18.2
1.1
1.0
Market Outlook
February 04, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,320
24,780
11,012
12,333
21.1
20.9
77.0
80.3
17.2
16.4
3.2
2.9
19.5
18.7
2.0
1.7
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
199
30,713
10,210
11,811
26.0
25.7
11.2
12.6
17.8
15.8
3.8
3.4
20.3
20.7
2.6
2.2
India Cements
Neutral
88
2,699
4,293
4,666
17.7
18.1
8.6
10.8
10.2
8.2
0.8
0.7
7.5
9.0
1.0
0.9
J K Lakshmi Cements
Neutral
145
1,771
2,171
2,544
22.5
22.5
21.6
23.2
6.7
6.3
1.2
1.0
19.0
17.8
0.9
1.2
Madras Cements
Neutral
242
5,752
3,814
4,045
28.8
27.1
18.3
18.7
13.2
12.9
2.4
2.1
19.4
17.0
2.2
1.9
Shree Cements^
Neutral
4,425
15,415
5,678
6,251
29.0
28.6
288.1
334.0
15.4
13.3
4.3
3.4
31.7
28.4
2.2
1.8
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,861
51,018
20,466
23,017
23.3
24.3
100.0
117.1
18.6
15.9
3.4
2.9
19.6
19.5
2.4
2.3
207
268
1,092
20,466
23,017
22.5
22.5
24.4
27.0
8.5
7.7
1.0
0.9
12.3
12.1
0.2
0.2
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
15
285
2,262
2,522
5.9
6.3
0.9
1.6
16.8
9.9
0.5
0.4
2.7
4.6
0.4
0.4
IRB Infra
Buy
117
164
3,902
3,843
4,212
43.1
43.6
16.8
17.8
7.0
6.6
1.2
1.1
18.3
17.0
3.1
3.4
ITNL
Accumulate
199
225
3,870
6,564
7,054
27.2
27.4
26.3
29.0
7.6
6.9
1.2
1.1
17.0
16.3
2.7
2.8
IVRCL Infra
Neutral
34
1,043
4,249
6,897
7.8
8.2
0.3
3.4
110.3
10.0
0.5
0.5
0.4
4.4
0.8
0.5
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
83
100
17,950
13,842
15,863
26.9
26.4
3.7
4.6
22.8
18.3
1.4
1.3
6.2
7.3
2.8
2.5
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,535
1,788
94,385
60,666
69,525
10.6
11.2
71.9
85.0
21.4
18.1
3.3
2.9
14.5
15.2
1.7
1.5
Nagarjuna Const.
Neutral
47
1,203
5,947
6,569
8.5
8.6
3.1
4.1
15.1
11.4
0.5
0.5
3.3
4.2
0.6
0.6
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
54
1,807
11,892
13,116
9.0
9.0
1.8
3.2
30.1
16.9
0.6
0.6
2.0
3.5
0.6
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
125
168
1,884
2,344
2,804
10.6
10.7
7.2
8.7
17.4
14.4
2.1
1.8
13.0
13.5
1.2
1.0
Simplex Infra
Buy
185
251
914
6,882
8,032
9.1
9.1
23.2
31.3
8.0
5.9
0.7
0.6
9.1
11.2
0.5
0.4
Unity Infra
Buy
40
59
293
2,180
2,455
13.7
13.4
13.3
15.0
3.0
2.6
0.4
0.3
12.5
12.5
0.5
0.5
Allahabad Bank
Buy
160
199
7,978
6,403
7,186
2.7
2.8
30.5
33.6
5.2
4.8
0.8
0.7
14.9
14.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
111
6,200
4,706
5,444
2.9
3.0
21.4
22.4
5.2
5.0
0.8
0.7
15.1
14.2
Axis Bank
Accumulate
1,508
1,641
64,402
15,959
18,660
3.2
3.2
119.2
139.0
12.7
10.8
2.4
2.0
20.3
20.1
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
867
35,651
15,284
18,032
2.5
2.6
109.6
137.7
7.9
6.3
1.2
1.0
15.5
17.1
Bank of India
Neutral
354
20,303
12,568
14,758
2.2
2.4
41.6
64.1
8.5
5.5
1.1
0.9
11.6
16.0
Bank of Maharashtra
Neutral
59
3,455
3,720
4,268
2.9
2.8
10.9
13.0
5.4
4.5
0.8
0.7
16.2
16.9
Canara Bank
Accumulate
472
516
20,912
10,828
12,005
2.1
2.2
64.7
80.4
7.3
5.9
1.0
0.9
13.2
14.7
Central Bank
Accumulate
83
87
6,077
7,252
8,236
2.5
2.6
16.8
21.4
4.9
3.9
0.9
0.7
13.1
14.8
Corporation Bank
Buy
428
534
6,338
4,835
5,570
2.0
2.2
105.0
99.8
4.1
4.3
0.7
0.6
17.5
14.8
Dena Bank
Accumulate
108
124
3,763
3,125
3,457
2.7
2.8
26.2
24.2
4.1
4.5
0.8
0.7
19.6
15.6
Financials
Market Outlook
February 04, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Federal Bank
Accumulate
511
557
8,739
2,667
2,920
3.2
3.2
49.1
51.4
10.4
9.9
1.4
1.2
13.9
13.1
HDFC
Neutral
779
120,058
7,446
8,923
3.5
3.5
32.2
38.5
24.2
20.2
4.9
4.4
35.4
32.6
HDFC Bank
Neutral
640
151,861
21,724
26,578
4.3
4.3
28.7
36.1
22.3
17.7
4.3
3.6
20.7
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,171
1,397
134,651
22,219
26,447
2.9
3.0
69.1
82.9
16.9
14.1
2.1
1.9
14.2
15.6
IDBI Bank
Buy
106
122
13,519
8,196
9,305
1.9
2.1
15.4
22.3
6.9
4.7
0.7
0.7
10.7
14.1
Indian Bank
Buy
203
252
8,716
5,902
6,563
3.2
3.2
41.3
43.2
4.9
4.7
0.8
0.7
18.4
16.8
IOB
Accumulate
J & K Bank
Neutral
LIC Housing Finance
80
90
6,396
7,063
8,308
2.3
2.5
12.6
20.4
6.4
3.9
0.6
0.5
9.0
13.3
1,377
6,675
2,830
2,910
3.6
3.6
234.8
197.4
5.9
7.0
1.4
1.2
25.1
18.0
Buy
283
328
14,295
1,799
2,255
2.3
2.4
20.3
27.3
13.9
10.4
2.2
1.9
16.9
19.7
Oriental Bank
Neutral
322
9,387
6,330
7,105
2.6
2.7
58.4
65.1
5.5
4.9
0.8
0.7
14.5
14.4
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
899
30,506
19,688
22,497
3.2
3.3
138.9
164.5
6.5
5.5
1.1
1.0
16.7
17.3
South Ind.Bank
Buy
28
34
3,688
1,583
1,789
3.0
2.9
3.5
4.1
7.9
6.8
1.3
1.2
19.1
17.7
St Bk of India
Neutral
2,410
161,715
60,677
69,712
3.3
3.3
224.3
257.3
10.7
9.4
1.8
1.6
17.6
17.7
Syndicate Bank
Buy
133
159
8,027
6,673
7,644
2.9
3.0
30.0
27.1
4.5
4.9
0.9
0.8
20.7
16.2
UCO Bank
Neutral
Union Bank
Accumulate
United Bank
75
4,955
5,235
6,086
2.3
2.4
12.0
14.9
6.2
5.0
1.0
0.9
12.0
13.5
249
271
13,695
9,963
11,536
2.8
2.9
40.8
46.8
6.1
5.3
1.0
0.9
16.2
16.4
Buy
74
87
2,671
3,498
3,858
2.5
2.8
15.1
21.6
4.9
3.4
0.6
0.5
12.5
16.1
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
58
2,887
2,333
2,728
2.0
2.2
7.3
10.4
8.0
5.6
0.8
0.7
9.3
12.1
Yes Bank
Accumulate
532
576
19,035
3,364
4,260
2.8
3.0
36.3
42.6
14.6
12.5
3.3
2.7
24.6
23.6
4,541
43,556
11,198
13,319
15.9
15.7
122.1
147.1
37.2
30.9
12.6
9.8
37.7
35.7
3.8
3.2
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
473
584
5,654
5,627
6,581
4.9
5.7
18.3
24.7
25.9
19.2
9.4
7.2
39.1
42.7
0.9
0.8
Colgate
Neutral
1,346
18,299
3,120
3,588
20.3
21.1
38.4
45.1
35.1
29.9
32.6
26.1
104.6
97.0
5.7
4.9
Dabur India
Neutral
133
23,216
6,196
7,183
16.3
16.8
4.5
5.5
29.6
24.3
12.2
9.5
43.4
44.0
3.8
3.2
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
3,823
16,078
3,084
3,617
15.3
15.5
101.2
118.3
37.8
32.3
11.5
9.3
33.5
31.9
4.9
4.1
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
711
24,212
6,355
7,548
16.7
17.4
20.3
25.4
35.0
28.0
7.4
6.1
23.2
25.1
4.0
3.3
HUL
Neutral
465
100,531
25,350
28,974
13.3
13.5
15.1
17.0
30.8
27.4
24.5
17.5
85.7
74.3
3.8
3.3
ITC
Neutral
309
243,674
29,148
34,191
35.7
36.1
9.4
11.1
33.0
27.9
11.0
9.1
35.9
35.7
8.0
6.8
Marico
Neutral
230
14,835
4,840
5,643
13.6
13.6
6.4
8.1
35.8
28.3
7.0
5.7
26.3
23.3
3.1
2.6
Nestle*
Neutral
4,719
45,499
8,487
10,081
21.2
22.1
113.0
142.5
41.8
33.1
25.1
17.2
70.5
61.6
5.4
4.4
Market Outlook
February 04, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Neutral
147
9,078
7,207
7,927
9.1
9.5
6.9
8.2
21.3
18.0
2.3
2.2
8.9
9.8
1.2
1.1
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
688
725
47,800
24,453
27,269
19.8
18.7
45.0
50.0
15.3
13.8
3.7
3.1
24.4
22.6
1.9
1.6
Hexaware*
Buy
77
118
2,276
1,941
2,118
20.8
19.0
10.7
10.7
7.2
7.2
1.8
1.5
25.3
22.0
0.9
0.8
Infosys
Neutral
2,771
159,118
40,746
44,283
28.9
28.8
162.6
172.9
17.1
16.0
4.0
3.4
23.5
21.3
3.3
2.9
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
170
191
1,896
1,900
2,064
18.2
17.8
19.1
21.2
8.9
8.0
1.4
1.2
15.2
14.6
0.7
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Buy
111
130
2,133
2,221
2,390
16.1
15.9
11.3
13.0
9.8
8.5
2.2
1.7
21.9
20.9
0.9
0.8
Mahindra Satyam
Neutral
118
13,848
7,670
8,308
20.3
19.3
9.9
10.8
11.9
10.9
3.3
2.6
28.0
23.5
1.4
1.2
Mindtree
Neutral
799
3,306
2,339
2,502
20.9
18.4
75.4
78.1
10.6
10.2
2.6
2.1
24.6
20.3
1.2
1.0
Mphasis&
Accumulate
369
396
7,763
5,531
5,874
17.6
17.5
35.4
37.7
10.4
9.8
1.5
1.3
14.7
13.5
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Buy
27
36
443
1,048
1,161
9.1
10.9
4.1
6.2
6.5
4.4
0.7
0.6
10.3
14.1
0.2
0.2
Persistent
Neutral
536
2,145
1,277
1,398
26.8
25.2
48.0
53.9
11.2
9.9
2.1
1.8
19.0
17.9
1.4
1.1
TCS
Accumulate
1,346
1,465
263,520
62,954
70,871
29.0
28.9
71.6
79.1
18.8
17.0
6.3
5.1
33.2
29.7
4.0
3.5
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
1,005
1,087
12,851
6,671
7,290
19.8
19.0
94.1
106.4
10.7
9.5
2.5
2.0
24.0
21.6
2.0
1.7
Wipro
Neutral
408
100,427
43,231
47,241
20.0
20.0
26.2
28.1
15.6
14.5
3.0
2.6
19.3
17.9
2.0
1.7
D B Corp
Accumulate
243
264
4,449
1,581
1,784
23.3
25.0
11.6
14.4
21.0
16.8
4.1
3.5
21.0
22.3
2.7
2.4
HT Media
Buy
104
121
2,438
2,111
2,272
15.0
15.2
7.4
8.3
14.1
12.6
1.5
1.4
11.3
11.4
0.8
0.7
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
107
126
3,371
1,503
1,681
23.1
23.1
6.4
7.3
16.7
14.7
4.1
3.7
25.8
26.5
2.4
2.1
PVR
Neutral
267
775
682
786
17.3
16.9
17.6
19.7
15.2
13.6
1.8
1.6
14.9
14.5
1.5
1.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
480
18,900
1,942
2,237
77.2
75.5
17.6
19.1
27.3
25.1
6.6
5.9
25.8
25.2
9.3
8.0
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
447
10,124
10,746
13,982
30.8
31.1
43.3
55.5
10.3
8.1
1.1
1.0
11.4
12.6
3.0
2.3
Coal India
Neutral
356
224,705
66,666
70,292
25.7
27.3
24.2
26.6
14.7
13.4
4.4
3.5
33.1
29.1
2.4
2.1
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
25
34
874
1,984
2,074
10.6
11.6
1.8
2.6
14.3
9.7
0.5
0.2
3.6
5.1
0.6
0.6
Hind. Zinc
Buy
128
149
54,190
12,002
13,759
49.7
50.8
14.7
16.4
8.7
7.9
1.7
1.4
21.1
19.8
2.6
1.9
Hindalco
Neutral
113
21,721
79,148
89,258
9.4
9.0
15.0
15.6
7.6
7.3
0.6
0.6
8.8
8.4
0.7
0.6
JSW Steel
Neutral
877
19,573
39,072
40,493
16.5
18.2
82.4
90.3
10.7
9.7
1.1
1.0
10.7
10.7
0.9
0.9
MOIL
Neutral
254
4,262
941
1,019
47.3
48.3
25.8
28.1
9.8
9.0
1.5
1.4
16.7
16.2
2.2
1.8
Monnet Ispat
Buy
251
344
1,602
2,501
3,264
22.2
24.6
41.8
55.2
6.0
4.6
0.6
0.6
11.3
13.4
1.7
1.2
Nalco
Reduce
49
46
12,525
6,630
8,357
11.4
14.5
2.1
3.3
22.9
14.9
1.1
1.0
4.6
6.9
1.2
1.0
NMDC
Buy
155
198
61,354
11,209
12,525
78.4
78.3
18.5
20.6
8.4
7.5
2.0
1.7
27.0
24.6
3.5
2.9
FMCG
Tata Global
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
February 04, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EV/Sales(x)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

SAIL
Neutral
87
35,936
47,252
60,351
14.2
14.8
9.6
11.7
9.1
7.4
0.8
0.8
9.4
10.6
1.2
1.0
Sesa Goa
Neutral
184
15,952
2,412
3,911
30.8
33.1
29.6
31.8
6.2
5.8
1.0
0.8
16.3
15.4
8.1
5.0
Sterlite Inds
Neutral
112
37,623
43,185
45,442
23.3
23.7
16.8
17.9
6.7
6.2
0.7
0.7
11.6
11.2
0.9
0.8
Tata Steel
Buy
401
463
38,921 145,725 154,108
8.3
9.5
22.0
44.5
18.2
9.0
0.9
0.8
4.9
9.3
0.6
0.5
Sarda
Buy
126
148
451
1,442
1,494
19.0
19.1
29.2
31.7
4.3
4.0
0.5
0.5
12.3
12.0
0.7
0.6
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
46
73
617
2,694
2,906
14.6
16.6
16.4
20.8
2.8
2.2
0.3
0.2
11.4
12.8
0.4
0.3
Buy
106
143
337
2,342
2,470
13.7
15.3
27.7
33.8
3.8
3.1
0.4
0.3
10.9
11.4
0.6
0.5
Cairn India
Buy
326
383
62,355
17,394
17,034
76.4
72.3
60.8
55.1
5.4
5.9
1.1
0.9
21.9
17.0
2.8
2.4
GAIL
Neutral
343
43,464
46,652
54,142
15.7
15.7
34.0
35.3
10.1
9.7
1.7
1.5
18.5
16.8
0.7
0.5
ONGC
Reduce
332
312
284,427 147,139 154,821
33.9
33.7
30.7
32.3
10.8
10.3
1.9
1.7
18.3
17.2
1.7
1.5
Reliance Industries
Neutral
893
292,565 362,700 380,031
8.9
8.9
68.1
71.5
13.1
12.5
1.4
1.3
12.4
11.8
0.8
0.7
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
313
4,014
3,128
3,707
13.2
11.7
22.8
23.5
13.7
13.3
4.1
3.7
33.2
29.2
1.2
1.0
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
259
3,632
3,213
3,643
23.3
23.5
24.3
25.7
10.7
10.1
2.4
2.1
25.0
22.1
1.2
1.1
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Buy
151
179
11,306
32,210
41,362
6.1
5.8
15.4
15.6
9.8
9.7
2.6
2.1
29.1
24.1
0.4
0.3
72
4,049
1,079
1,034
91.8
91.9
8.8
8.4
8.2
8.6
1.4
1.2
17.9
15.0
3.5
3.5
Alembic Pharma
Buy
76
95
1,436
1,490
1,714
16.2
17.1
7.4
9.5
10.3
8.0
2.8
2.2
30.7
30.2
1.1
0.9
Aurobindo Pharma
Accumulate
192
208
5,590
5,463
6,279
15.0
15.0
12.4
14.0
15.5
13.7
2.0
1.7
18.8
17.8
1.6
1.4
Aventis*
Neutral
2,302
5,301
1,482
1,682
17.5
16.6
82.9
87.8
27.8
26.2
4.3
3.5
16.3
14.8
3.4
2.9
Cadila Healthcare
Accumulate
857
926
17,555
6,148
7,386
18.6
19.6
32.7
44.8
26.2
19.1
5.8
4.6
23.7
26.6
3.2
2.6
Cipla
Neutral
414
33,213
8,151
9,130
25.8
24.8
20.2
21.6
20.5
19.2
3.7
3.1
19.4
17.6
3.9
3.3
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,947
33,048
10,696
11,662
20.7
21.0
83.7
92.9
23.3
21.0
4.8
4.0
22.4
20.8
3.4
3.0
Dishman Pharma
Buy
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
Indoco Remedies
Buy
Ipca labs
Neutral
111
145
893
1,280
1,536
20.2
20.2
10.4
14.5
10.6
7.6
0.9
0.8
8.7
11.0
1.4
1.2
2,040
17,277
2,651
2,993
31.7
31.2
76.0
82.4
26.8
24.8
7.8
6.9
20.1
26.3
5.7
5.0
62
78
572
642
784
14.2
15.2
5.7
7.8
10.9
8.0
1.3
1.2
12.9
16.4
1.1
0.9
Accumulate
493
559
6,218
2,850
3,474
21.0
21.0
29.9
37.3
16.5
13.2
3.9
3.1
26.7
26.4
2.4
2.0
Lupin
Accumulate
609
655
27,253
8,426
10,082
19.7
20.0
26.1
31.1
23.3
19.6
5.4
4.4
25.8
24.7
3.4
2.8
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
449
18,978
12,046
11,980
16.0
15.8
37.3
32.1
12.0
14.0
4.7
3.7
45.3
29.7
1.6
1.5
Sun Pharma
Neutral
720
74,426
9,902
12,313
42.6
42.6
26.7
29.1
27.0
24.7
5.1
4.4
20.7
19.1
6.9
5.3
70
78
1,056
1,523
1,568
30.3
30.3
5.4
11.5
12.9
6.1
0.7
0.7
5.6
11.3
1.2
1.0
Power
GIPCL
Accumulate
Market Outlook
February 04, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
157
129,248
72,809
81,951
23.0
23.7
12.0
13.4
13.1
11.7
1.6
1.4
12.5
12.9
2.4
2.3
Power
NTPC
Neutral
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Neutral
82
2,409
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
9.7
6.4
0.6
0.6
6.3
8.9
4.9
3.7
DLF
Neutral
268
45,516
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
28.0
20.0
1.8
1.7
6.4
8.7
7.1
5.8
HDIL
Neutral
78
3,268
2,441
3,344
55.1
48.2
22.7
26.6
3.4
2.9
0.3
0.3
8.8
9.4
3.2
2.4
MLIFE
Accumulate
409
446
1,670
786
888
26.3
26.7
31.0
36.3
13.2
11.3
1.3
1.2
10.1
10.8
2.4
2.1
Bharti Airtel
Accumulate
331
350
125,508
80,353
86,654
30.9
31.3
8.6
11.8
38.6
28.0
2.4
2.2
6.1
7.8
2.3
2.1
Idea Cellular
Neutral
112
37,054
21,797
23,142
26.9
27.7
3.1
4.7
35.6
24.0
2.6
2.4
7.4
9.8
2.2
2.0
Rcom
Neutral
81
16,770
21,032
22,084
31.8
30.2
2.9
4.0
27.8
20.4
0.5
0.4
1.6
2.2
2.5
2.2
Telecom
zOthers
Abbott India
Accumulate
1,433
1,590
3,046
1,629
1,886
11.8
13.3
60.8
79.5
23.6
18.0
4.8
4.0
22.0
24.4
1.7
1.4
Bajaj Electricals
Accumulate
193
217
1,928
3,497
3,968
6.6
7.6
9.8
15.5
19.7
12.5
2.5
2.2
12.7
17.4
0.6
0.5
Cera Sanitaryware
Buy
415
495
525
460
596
16.4
16.2
34.7
45.0
12.0
9.2
2.9
2.3
27.7
27.8
1.2
1.0
Cravatex
Buy
416
545
108
272
308
7.2
7.3
37.5
45.4
11.1
9.2
2.6
2.1
23.7
22.7
0.5
0.4
CRISIL
Neutral
995
6,987
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
29.0
24.9
13.1
10.5
50.9
46.9
6.7
5.6
Finolex Cables
Neutral
58
882
2,304
2,552
9.9
9.1
8.2
10.1
7.1
5.7
1.0
0.8
13.7
14.7
0.3
0.3
Force Motors
Buy
436
550
569
2,027
2,299
4.6
5.1
35.3
50.0
12.4
8.7
0.5
0.5
3.9
5.3
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India
Accumulate
324
360
747
1,494
1,607
6.4
7.8
23.9
33.0
13.5
9.8
2.1
1.8
16.5
20.1
0.3
0.2
Greenply Industries
Sell
404
309
975
1,925
2,235
10.6
10.9
29.6
44.1
13.7
9.2
2.2
1.8
16.8
21.0
0.8
0.7
Hitachi
Neutral
141
324
905
1,025
4.8
6.0
7.7
12.4
18.4
11.4
1.8
1.6
9.9
14.4
0.4
0.4
2,522
2,842
2,229
1,809
2,117
5.5
7.5
84.9
135.3
29.7
18.6
3.2
2.8
11.3
16.0
1.1
0.9
Honeywell Automation* Accumulate

Styrolution ABS India*
Accumulate
651
744
1,144
1,059
1,116
8.5
9.5
36.0
42.0
18.1
15.5
2.6
2.3
15.4
16.0
1.1
1.0
ITD Cementation
Buy
233
334
269
1,455
1,630
12.4
12.6
29.8
40.5
7.8
5.8
0.6
0.6
8.2
9.8
0.6
0.6
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
148
2,383
1,228
1,443
9.0
10.9
3.9
6.4
38.0
23.1
3.8
3.5
10.1
15.6
2.4
2.0
MCX
Neutral
1,398
7,132
553
624
65.3
66.3
62.5
72.0
22.4
19.4
6.2
5.3
27.5
27.4
9.9
8.3
MRF
Neutral
13,220
5,607
13,030
14,405
10.3
10.6 1,418.1 1,677.1
9.3
7.9
1.6
1.4
19.1
18.7
0.5
0.5
Page Industries
Accumulate
3,413
3,602
3,807
836
1,023
20.2
20.6
105.6
133.4
32.3
25.6
16.4
11.6
59.3
53.2
4.6
3.8
Relaxo Footwears
Buy
808
933
970
1,019
1,208
11.0
12.5
47.0
66.7
17.2
12.1
4.3
3.2
28.2
30.1
1.1
0.9
Sintex Industries
Buy
62
79
1,954
4,751
5,189
16.3
16.6
13.6
15.8
4.6
4.0
0.6
0.5
12.9
13.2
0.8
0.6
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
289
366
270
1,043
1,149
12.3
12.9
65.7
73.3
4.4
3.9
0.8
0.7
21.0
19.6
0.5
0.5
S. Kumars Nationwide
Neutral
12
344
6,765
7,393
18.1
18.0
6.4
7.5
1.8
1.5
0.1
0.1
6.1
6.7
0.6
0.6
Market Outlook
February 04, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
OPM(%)
FY13E
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
zOthers
SpiceJet
Reduce
47
43
2,298
5,720
6,599
5.3
6.8
3.6
5.4
13.2
8.9
19.0
6.0
0.5
0.4
TAJ GVK
Buy
68
108
428
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
8.6
7.5
1.1
1.0
13.9
14.4
1.7
1.5
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
311
379
479
782
818
16.5
17.0
61.8
65.4
5.0
4.8
0.7
0.7
15.7
14.7
0.3
0.2
TTK Healthcare
Buy
497
643
386
374
425
7.9
9.5
24.1
32.7
20.6
15.2
19.7
22.5
0.9
0.7
TVS Srichakra
Buy
252
322
193
1,461
1,625
6.9
8.2
24.6
53.7
10.2
4.7
1.3
1.1
12.9
24.9
0.4
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
1,866
24,402
10,289
11,421
12.8
12.8
26.0
45.3
71.8
41.2
3.3
3.0
5.8
7.6
2.7
2.5
Vesuvius India
Neutral
332
673
560
611
16.1
17.0
24.7
28.8
13.4
11.5
2.0
1.8
15.8
16.2
1.1
1.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on February 01, 2013
Market Outlook
February 04, 2013

Market Outlook, 4th February, 2013

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Market Outlook, 4th February, 2013

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Market Outlook

(0.6) (113.8) 19,781

(0.8) (115.1) 14,465

(1.0) (108.1) 10,886

Auto sales numbers January 2013

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

FII Derivatives (February 01, 2013)

Net Inflows (January 31, 2013)

OIL & GAS

Auto sales numbers January 2013

Mahindra and Mahindra

Cigarette packs may show nicotine levels

Ultratech eyes ABG cement unit

Ceat registers a 23.8% yoy growth in tyre production in

3QFY2013 Result Review

BHEL (CMP: `225 / TP: - / Upside: - )

Marico (CMP: `230/TP: - /Upside :- )

Indian Bank - (CMP: `203 / TP: `245 / Upside: 20.9%)

Corporation Bank - (CMP: `428 / TP: `517 / Upside: 20.7%)

TVS Motor (CMP: `43/ TP: `47/ Upside: 9%)

as the company reduced its interest bearing debt by `180cr in 9MFY2013. At

TTK Healthcare (CMP: `496 / TP: 655/ Upside: 32%)

3QFY2013 Result Preview

United Spirits (CMP: `1,866/TP: /Upside:-)

Note: Estimates for consolidated financials are furnished in the table

ITNL (CMP: `199 / TP: `225 / Upside: 13%)

EPS ROE P/E P/BV

510 26.3 17.0 7.6

564 29.0 16.3 6.9

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Rural Electrification (04/02/2013)

United Spirits (04/02/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

Economic and Political News

Withdraw MAT on SEZs: Assocham

BoB, BoI, Canara Bank cut lending rates by 0.25%

February 02, 2013

Divi's Lab., Indian Bank, Relaxo

February 03, 2013

February 05, 2013

NHPC, UCO Bank, United Bank

February 06, 2013

February 12, 2013

February 13, 2013

February 14, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Country Event Description

Germany PMI Services

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

Industrial Production (YoY)

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Industrial Production YoY

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

BOE Announces rates

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

February 15, 2013

February 20, 2013

Jobless claims change

Producer Price Index (mom)

Existing home sales