Monthly Update | January 2013

February 1, 2013 Yaresh Kothari

+91 22 39357800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com

Automobile Sector
Weak demand prevails
Automakers registered sluggish sales for January 2013 on continued weakness in domestic demand led by high interest rates, inflation and slowdown in economic activity. The medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) segment continues to remain the most impacted with sales witnessing a significant decline. However, utility vehicles (UV) and light commercial vehicles (LCV) defied the general slowdown and sustained their growth momentum. Among auto majors, while Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) and Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) posted better-than-expected volumes; Tata Motors (TTMT) registered a sharply lower-than-expected performance. Going ahead, we expect the demand scenario to remain challenging in 4QFY2013 as slowdown in economic growth coupled with higher interest rates and fuel expenses continue to dampen consumer sentiments. Tata Motors registered a substantial decline of 29.5% yoy (6% mom) in its total volumes led by continued weakness in the passenger vehicle (PV, down 55.6% yoy) and MHCV (down 53.6% yoy) segments. LCV sales however, continued with the growth momentum posting a strong growth of 14.7% yoy. Exports posted a dismal performance as export volumes were down 45.2% yoy (flat mom). Ashok Leyland reported in-line monthly volumes (total sales up 2.5% yoy) as Dost sales recovered after an unexpected fall in December 2012. However, ex. Dost volumes declined in-line with expectations by 25.4% yoy as the MHCV segment continued to see significant decline in demand due to slowdown in industrial activity. Maruti Suzuki reported better-than-expected volumes, primarily driven by a strong sequential growth in the Mini segment led by the new Alto. Total volumes registered a decline of 1.1% yoy; nevertheless they surged sharply by 20% on a sequential basis. Export sales however, posted a decline of 22.3% yoy (14.5% mom) during the month; thereby restricting the overall growth. Mahindra and Mahindra reported a modest volume growth of 4.5% yoy (11.5% mom) on account of continued decline in farm equipment sales which declined 9.8% yoy led by weakness in the domestic markets (down 8.6% yoy). However, the automotive segment registered a healthy growth of 10.7% yoy (9.3% mom) driven by strong momentum in the passenger vehicle segment (robust growth of 32.9% yoy) on the back of the new launches XUV5OO, Quanto and Rexton. Two-wheelers and three-wheelers: Bajaj Auto reported an in-line volume growth of 2.9% yoy (1.1% mom) driven by a healthy growth of 9.8% yoy (2% mom) in export sales. While motorcycle sales benefitted from the new launches; three-wheeler sales were driven by the issuance of fresh permits in Delhi, Karnataka, Hyderabad and Jaipur Hero MotoCorp registered better-than-expected performance with total sales posting a growth of 7.2% yoy (3% mom) driven by the new launches, Ignitor, Passion X-Pro and Maestro. TVS Motor Company posted better-than-expected volumes, registering a total volume growth of 1.4% yoy (12.6% mom). On a sequential basis, strong growth was witnessed across the two-wheeler product segments with scooters posting a 24.8% growth and motorcycle sales registering a growth of 7.2% led by Phoenix.
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Auto Sector Update | January 2013

Tata Motors
TTMT registered a steep decline led by continued weakness in PV and MHCV sales TTMT registered a substantial decline of 29.5% yoy (6% mom) in its total volumes to 61,660 units led by continued weakness in the passenger vehicle and MHCV segments. Commercial vehicle sales witnessed a steep decline of 11.8% yoy (9.8% mom) on account of a substantial decline of 53.6% yoy in MHCV sales led by weak industrial activity. LCV sales however, continued with the growth momentum, posting a strong growth of 14.7% yoy. The PV segment witnessed a poor volume performance yet again driven by a significant decline of 60.3% yoy (flat mom) and 33.7% yoy in the passenger car and UV sales. On a sequential basis however, the UV sales surged 36.3% led by the recently launched Safari Storme. Exports too posted a dismal performance during the month as volumes were down 45.2% yoy (flat mom).

Exhibit 1: Tata Motors Sales trend

Segment Total sales MHCV LCV Total CV Utility vehicles Cars Total PV Exports (Included above)
Source: Company, Angel Research

January 2013 61,660 9,369 36,583 45,952 4,100 11,608 15,708 3,880

January % chg 2012 87,466 (29.5) 20,192 (53.6) 31,883 14.7 52,075 (11.8) 6,182 (33.7) 29,209 (60.3) 35,391 (55.6) 7,083 (45.2)

YTD FY2013 675,376 125,703 344,952 470,655 42,072 162,649 204,721 43,283

YTD % chg FY2012 714,046 288,404 466,132 42,557 (5.4) 19.6 1.0 (1.1) 177,728 (29.3)

205,357 (20.8) 247,914 (17.4) 52,296 (17.2)

Exhibit 2: CV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Jul-11 Mar-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 May-11 May-12 Nov-12 Sep-11 Sep-12 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

February 1, 2013

Auto Sector Update | January 2013

Exhibit 3: PV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jul-11 Mar-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-11 May-11 May-12 Nov-12 Sep-11 Sep-12 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0) (80.0)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Ashok Leyland
Total sales declined in-line with expectations led by weakness in MHCV segment; Dost sales recovered and posted best ever sales volume AL reported in-line monthly volumes as Dosts sales recovered after an unexpected fall in December 2012. The total sales posted a growth of 2.5% yoy (44.8% mom) to 10,561 units with Dost registering its best ever performance clocking monthly sales of 3,698 units. However, ex. Dost volumes declined in-line with expectations by 25.4% yoy as the MHCV segment continued to see significant decline in demand due to slowdown in industrial activity.

Exhibit 4: Ashok Leyland Sales trend

January 2013 Total sales CV (ex. Dost) Dost 10,561 6,863 3,698 January 2012 10,300 9,200 1,100 % chg 2.5 (25.4) 236.2 YTD FY2013 90,640 63,048 27,592 YTD FY2012 76,757 72,957 3,800 % chg 18.1 (13.6) 626.1

Source: Company, Angel Research

February 1, 2013

Auto Sector Update | January 2013

Exhibit 5: CV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 (10) (20) (30) (40) (50)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Nov-11

Mar-12

Sep-11

Jul-12

Sep-12

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Maruti Suzuki
MSIL registered better than expected growth led by the new launches MSIL reported better-than-expected volumes in January 2013, primarily driven by a strong sequential growth in the Mini segment led by the new Alto. Total volumes registered a decline of 1.1% yoy; however, they surged by a strong 20% on a sequential basis to 114,205 units. On a sequential basis, the Mini (up 41.7%), Compact (up 6.8%), Super Compact (up 30.5%) and the Utility Vehicle (up 11.9%) segments were the primary drivers of growth resulting in a strong 25.5% growth in the domestic markets. Export sales however, posted a decline of 22.3% yoy (14.5% mom) during the month; thereby restricting the overall growth.

Exhibit 6: Maruti Suzuki Sales trend

Segment Total sales A: Mini: M800, A-star, Alto, Wagon R A: Compact: Swift, Estilo, Ritz A: Super Compact: Dzire A: Mid-size: SX4 A: Executive: Kizashi Total passenger vehicles B: UV - Gypsy, Grand Vitara, Ertiga C: Vans: Omni, Eeco Total domestic sales Total exports
Source: Company, Angel Research

January 2013 46,479 24,006 17,060 1,012 0 88,557 6,095 8,374 11,179

January 2012 52,036 25,756 8,637 1,939 88,377 12,439 14,386

% chg

YTD FY2013

YTD FY2012

Jan-13

% chg 6.0 (11.9) 14.2 66.9 (61.3) (53.0) 3.4 (21.5) 7.5 (6.0)

114,205 115,433

(1.1) 941,930 888,794 (10.7) 343,211 389,459 (6.8) 205,413 179,942 97.5 131,177 (47.8) 5,589 186 66,747 78,613 14,444 396

9 (100.0) 231 2,538.5 (32.7) (22.3)

0.2 685,576 662,854 92,878 118,320 96,729 102,855

4,765 1,300.8

103,026 101,047

2.0 845,201 785,939

February 1, 2013

Auto Sector Update | January 2013

Exhibit 7: Total volumes - Monthly sales trend

(units) 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0) (80.0)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Nov-11

Mar-12

Sep-11

Jul-12

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Mahindra and Mahindra

MM registered a modest growth led by weak tractor demand MM reported a modest volume growth of 4.5% yoy (11.5% mom) to 66,976 units as the farm equipment segment continued to post decline in sales. However, the automotive segment registered a healthy growth of 10.7% yoy (9.3% mom) driven by continued momentum in the passenger vehicle segment (robust growth of 32.9% yoy) on the back of the new launches XUV5OO, Quanto and Rexton. The three-wheeler and exports segments however registered a sluggish growth with volumes declining by 5.1% and 50.4% yoy respectively. According to the Management high interest rates and fuel prices continue to impact the consumer sentiments which are affecting demand. In the farm-equipment segment, MM posted a decline of 9.8% yoy led by weakness in domestic markets, which posted a decline of 8.6% yoy.

Exhibit 8: Mahindra & Mahindra Sales trend

Segment Total sales Passenger vehicles Four-wheel pick-up (GIO, Maxximo) Three-wheelers (Champion, Alfa) LCV/MHCV Exports Total automotive sales Tractor sales Domestic Tractor sales Exports Total tractor sales
Source: Company, Angel Research

January 2013 66,976 26,555 14,451 5,811 1,024 1,662 49,503 16,402 1,071 17,473

January YTD YTD % chg % chg 2012 FY2013 FY2012 64,080 4.5 655,338 595,889 10.0 19,975 13,725 6,126 32.9 230,006 176,522 5.3 141,854 124,455 (5.1) 55,876 9,559 26,352 57,240 23,892 30.3 14.0 (2.4) 10.3 17.9 (4.9) (5.4)

1,543 (33.6) 3,349 (50.4) 44,718 17,950 19,362

11,049 (13.5)

10.7 463,647 393,158 (8.6) 182,101 191,469 9,590 (9.8) 191,691 202,731

1,412 (24.2)

11,262 (14.8)

February 1, 2013

Jan-13

Auto Sector Update | January 2013

Exhibit 9: PV segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

Jul-11

Mar-11

Nov-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: Tractor segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0)

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Mar-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

Bajaj Auto
BJAUT reported in-line volumes benefitting from new launches and gradual recovery in exports Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) reported an in-line volume growth of 2.9% yoy (1.1% mom) to 347,624 units driven by a healthy growth of 9.8% yoy (2% mom) in export volumes. The domestic sales however remained flat on a yoy as well as sequential basis. Motorcycle sales grew by a modest 2.4% yoy (1% mom) driven by the new launches, Discover 125ST and Pulsar 200NS. The three-wheeler segment registered a healthy growth of 6.5% yoy (1.5% mom) led by issue of fresh permits in Delhi, Karnataka, Hyderabad and Jaipur. During the month, the company launched a new 100cc motorcycle, Discover T at a price of `50,500 ex. showroom Delhi.

February 1, 2013

Mar-12

Jan-13

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jan-13

Auto Sector Update | January 2013

Exhibit 11: Bajaj Auto Sales trend

Segment Total sales Motorcycles Three-wheelers Exports (included above) January 2013 347,624 301,361 46,263 128,482 January YTD YTD % chg % chg 2012 FY2013 FY2012 337,875 2.9 3,603,544 3,670,268 (1.8) 294,439 43,436 116,996 2.4 3,198,771 3,231,596 6.5 404,773 438,672 9.8 1,310,634 1,349,406 (1.0) (7.7) (2.9)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 12: Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) (10.0) (15.0) (20.0)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jul-12

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Sep-11

Sep-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 13: Three-wheeler segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0) (50.0)

Jan-11

Jan-12

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Hero MotoCorp
HMCL posted better-than-expected volumes during the month HMCL registered better-than-expected performance with total sales posting a growth of 7.2% yoy (3% mom) to 557,797 units driven by the new launches, Ignitor, Passion X-Pro and Maestro. Going ahead, HMCL intends to improve sales led by several marketing and customer engagement initiatives.

February 1, 2013

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jan-13

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jan-13

Auto Sector Update | January 2013

Exhibit 14: Hero MotoCorp Sales trend

January 2013 Total sales 557,797
Source: Company, Angel Research

January % chg 2012 520,272

YTD FY2013

YTD FY2012

% chg (1.5)

7.2 5,104,027 5,183,440

Exhibit 15: HMCL Monthly sales trend

(units) 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0)

Nov-11

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Sep-11

Sep-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

TVS Motor
TVSL reported better-than-expected sales led by sequential growth across the two-wheeler product portfolio TVS Motor Company (TVSL) posted better-than-expected volumes, registering a total volume growth of 1.4% yoy (12.6% mom) to 175,931 units. On a sequential basis, strong growth was witnessed across the two-wheeler product segments with scooters posting a 24.8% growth and motorcycle sales registering a growth of 7.2% led by Phoenix. The moped segment witnessed a growth of 12.9% mom during the month. Three-wheelers maintained their sales momentum and posted an impressive growth of 83.9% yoy (down 1.5% mom). Exports surged 11.4% yoy (2.3% mom) during the month. The Management expects the export volumes to touch a monthly run-rate of 28,000-30,000 units within the next six months.

February 1, 2013

Mar-11

Mar-12

Jan-13

Jul-11

Jul-12

Auto Sector Update | January 2013

Exhibit 16: TVS Motor Sales trend

Segment Total sales Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds Total two-wheelers Three-wheelers Exports (included above) January 2013 175,931 64,555 37,946 69,012 171,513 4,418 20,723 January % chg 2012 173,514 65,608 41,469 64,035 171,112 2,402 18,610 YTD FY2013 YTD FY2012 % chg (7.8) (12.2) (15.7) 1.5 (8.2) 12.0 (19.8)

1.4 1,699,236 1,843,905 (1.6) 627,180 714,325 (8.5) 7.8 83.9 11.4 381,762 651,332 38,962 200,390 453,007 641,773 34,800 249,792

0.2 1,660,274 1,809,105

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 17: Motorcycle segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Sep-11

Jul-12

Sep-12

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 18: Scooter segment Monthly sales trend

(units) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0)

Jul-11

Mar-11

Mar-12

Sep-11

Jul-12

Nov-11

Sep-12

May-11

May-12

Nov-12

Jan-11

Jan-12

Source: Company, Angel Research

February 1, 2013

Jan-13

Jan-13

Auto Sector Update | January 2013

Outlook
We believe the long-term structural growth drivers of the Indian automobile industry such as GDP growth (leading to increasing affluence of rural and urban consumers), favorable demographics, low penetration levels, entry of global players and easy availability of finance are intact, which should support a 8-10% CAGR in auto volumes over FY2012-14E. As such, we prefer stocks that have strong fundamentals, high exposure to rural and export markets and command superior pricing power. We remain positive on AL, HMCL, MM and TTMT.

Exhibit 19: Relative valuation and recommendation

Companies AL BJAUT HMCL MSIL MM TTMT* TVSL Reco. Buy Neutral Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Buy Accumulate CMP (`) 25 2,053 1,609 886 285 43 TP (`) 28 998 47 Sales (`cr) FY13E 12,910 20,775 23,990 42,304 40,035 7,019 14,836 23,889 27,038 51,088 46,272 7,827 P/E (x) 16.6 19.1 17.1 25.0 16.3 8.0 10.0 11.1 16.2 15.1 16.8 14.3 6.7 8.1 P/BV (x) 2.2 7.9 6.9 2.8 3.6 2.1 1.6 2.0 6.2 5.6 2.4 3.0 1.7 1.4 RoE (%) 9.3 45.8 44.3 11.6 24.2 30.2 16.4 13.3 42.8 40.9 15.3 23.2 27.6 18.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 13.4 8.7 12.2 9.4 4.1 3.8 5.4 10.9 7.2 8.1 7.7 3.6 2.9 FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY12-14E EPS CAGR (%) 2.7 8.9 5.3 37.5 15.3 12.3 0.4

1,813 1,923

337 190,883 218,159

Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as on February 1, 2013; *Consolidated financials

February 1, 2013

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Auto Sector Update | January 2013

Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement

Analyst ownership of the stock Ashok Leyland Tata Motors Maruti Suzuki Mahindra & Mahindra Bajaj Auto Hero MotoCorp TVS Motor No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No No No No No No No Broking relationship with company covered No No No No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to -15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

February 1, 2013

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Auto Sector Update | January 2013

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February 1, 2013

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