Daily I Forex Report: 9 February 2013

DAILY I FOREX REPORT
9TH FEBRUARY 2013
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HEADLINES
Euro Drops Below 1.34 On Disappointing German Trade Balance EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Hit By ECB FX Worry, Still Awaiting Risk
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3381 tgs 1.3361/1.3341 sl 1.3411
Euro: A True EUR/USD Turn As ECBS Draghi Hints At Intervention? Euro Drops Below 1.34 On Disappointing German Trade Balance
THE TAKEAWAY: German trade balance drops to 12.0 billion Euros in December -> The 2012 trade surplus was the second highest on record -> Euro trading drops slightly
SELL USDJPY BELOW 92.17 tgt 92.03/91.87 SL 92.37
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5764 tgt 1.5778/1.5792 SL 1.5744

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The German trade balance fell to a 14-month low in December despite a drop in imports and a rise in exports. The 12.0 billion Euro trade balance was worse than the expected 15.0 billion surplus and lower than Novembers revised 16.9 billion Euro trade balance. Exports increased by 0.3% in December, while imports declined 1.3%, according to the Federal Statistical Office.
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HOURLYEURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3383 HIGH: 1.3429 LOW: 1.3381 CLOSE: 1.3403
EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND : BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>. -0005(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 38(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => 0002( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>30(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => .0005( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 65(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.-002(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>29(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>0.0125(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>49(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date
Sun Feb 3
Time
Currency
Event
Importance
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Notes
01:00
CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (JAN) AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JAN) AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JAN) JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (JAN) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JAN) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
56.2
56.1
23:30
Medium
2.5%
2.4%
23:30
Low
0.3%
0.4%
23:50
Mon Feb 4
Low
10.9%
11.8%
Low
1.6%
-0.3%
Low
0%
1.3%
00:00
NZD ANZ Commodity Price (JAN) GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (JAN) AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JAN) AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (DEC) AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (DEC) CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (4Q) EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (FEB) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (DEC) EUR German Chancellor Merkel and Spanish PM Rajoy Hold Press Conference USD Factory Orders (DEC) NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (4Q) NZD Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (4Q) NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)
Low
0.3%
1.0%
00:01
Low
15
20
00:30
Low
-0.9%
-2.80%
00:30
Low
-4.4%
1.0%
3.4%
00:30
Low
9.3%
14.9%
14.1%
07:00
Low
1.11
1.02
09:30
Medium
-3.9
-1.7
-7
09:30
Medium
48.7
49.2
48.7
10:00
High
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
10:00
Medium
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
14:45
Medium
15:00
Medium
2.3%
0.0%
21:45
Medium
0.4%
1.4%
21:45
Low
0.5%
0.5%
21:45
Low
0.5%
0.5%
22:30
Tue Feb 5
AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (JAN) GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like YoY (JAN) AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (4Q) AUD House Price Index (YoY) (4Q) AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (DEC) CNY HSBC Services PMI (JAN) AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (FEB 5) CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (DEC) CHF Exports (MoM) (DEC) CHF Imports (MoM) (DEC) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (JAN) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JAN F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (JAN) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC) USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (JAN) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (FEB) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
43.2
00:01
Low
0.3%
00:30
Medium
0.3%
0.3%
00:30
Medium
0.9%
0.3%
00:30
Medium
-800M
-2637M
01:45
Medium
51.7
03:30
High
3.00%
3.00%
07:00
Medium
2.00B
2.90B
07:00
Low
6.0%
07:00
Low
0.2%
08:45
Medium
45.8
45.6
08:50
Medium
43.6
43.6
09:30
Medium
49.5
48.9
09:30
Low
-$350M
10:00
High
-1.4%
-2.6%
10:00
Medium
-0.5%
0.1%
15:00
Medium
55.0
55.7
15:00
Low
46.5
46.5
Wed Feb 6
Low
3.7%
00:01
GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JAN) AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (4Q) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
Low
1.5%
00:30
Medium
0.3%
-0.1%
00:30
Medium
0.3%
-0.1%
01:30
JPY BOJ Board Member Sato Speech EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (DEC) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 1) CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA (JAN) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB 1) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 1) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 1) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 1) NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (4Q) NZD Employment Change (YoY) (4Q) NZD Unemployment Rate (4Q) NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (4Q) AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (JAN) JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (DEC) JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (DEC) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 1) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 1) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 1) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 1) JPY Official Reserve Assets (JAN) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Low
11:00
Medium
-1.2%
-1.0%
11:00
Low
0.7%
-1.8%
12:00
Low
-8.1%
15:00
Medium
53.8
52.8
15:30
Low
284K
15:30
Low
5947K
15:30
Low
-2315K
15:30
Low
-956K
21:45
Medium
-0.4%
21:45
Medium
0.0%
21:45
Medium
7.3%
21:45
Low
68.4%
22:30
Medium
38.8
23:50
Medium
-0.9%
3.9%
23:50
Medium
-4.0%
0.3%
23:50
Low
-228.8B
23:50
Low
248.6B
23:50
Low
663.1B
23:50
Low
-254.1B
23:50
Thu Feb 7
Low
$1268.1B
Low
0.0%
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JAN) 00:30 AUD Employment Change (JAN) AUD Unemployment Rate (JAN) AUD Full Time Employment Change (JAN) AUD NAB Business Confidence (4Q) AUD Part Time Employment Change (JAN) AUD Participation Rate (JAN) JPY Leading Index (DEC P) JPY Coincident Index (DEC P) AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (JAN) CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (JAN) EUR French Trade Balance (euros) (DEC) CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (JAN) GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC) GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (DEC) GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (DEC) GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC) GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (DEC) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (DEC) GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (DEC) EUR European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts (Table)
Low
3.2%
High
6.0K
-5.5K
00:30
High
5.5%
5.4%
00:30
Medium
-13.8K
00:30
Medium
-2
00:30
Medium
8.3K
00:30
Low
65.1%
65.1%
05:00
Medium
93.6
92.1
05:00
Low
92.6
90.2
05:30
Low
A$47.3B
06:45
Medium
-12
-17
07:45
Low
-4200M
-4334M
08:00
Low
428.5B
427.2B
09:30
Medium
-2.2%
-2.4%
09:30
Medium
-2.6%
-2.1%
09:30
Medium
-9000
-9164
09:30
Low
0.7%
0.3%
09:30
Low
0.6%
-0.3%
09:30
Low
-3300
-3466
09:30
Low
-4300
-4519
10:00
Medium
11:00
EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC) GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (FEB) GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (FEB 7) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (FEB 7) EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (FEB 7) CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (DEC) USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 3) CAD Building Permits (MoM) (DEC) CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (DEC) USD Continuing Claims (JAN 27) USD Non-Farm Productivity (4Q P) USD Unit Labor Costs (4Q P) GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JAN) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 1) USD Consumer Credit (DEC) JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (Yen) (DEC) JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (DEC) JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JAN) JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JAN) JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (DEC) JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (DEC)
Medium
-0.5%
-2.9%
11:00
Low
0.2%
0.2%
12:00
High
375B
375B
12:00
High
0.5%
0.50%
12:45
High
0.75%
0.75%
12:45
Low
0.0%
0.00%
13:30
Medium
2.2%
13:30
Medium
360K
368K
13:30
Low
-17.9%
13:30
Low
0.1%
0.1%
13:30
Low
3187K
3197K
13:30
Low
-1.0%
2.9%
13:30
Low
3.0%
-1.9%
15:00
Medium
-0.3%
15:30
Low
-194
20:00
Medium
$14.500B
$16.045B
23:50
Medium
-560.3B
-847.5B
23:50
Low
235.8B
225.9B
23:50
Low
1.4%
23:50
Low
1.2%
23:50
Low
-154.3%
-276.4%
23:50
Low
-141.1B
-222.4B
23:50
Fri Feb 8
JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (4Q) CNY Exports (YoY) (JAN) CNY Imports (YoY) (JAN) CNY Trade Balance (USD) (JAN)
Low
3.0%
Medium
17.1%
14.1%
Medium
23.5%
6.0%
Medium
$24.20B
$31.62B
04:30
JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JAN) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JAN) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JAN) CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN) CHF Unemployment Rate (JAN) CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (DEC) EUR German Current Account (euros) (DEC) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (DEC) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (DEC) EUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (JAN) EUR French Central Government Balance (euros) (DEC) CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (DEC) EUR Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC) EUR Italian Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC) EUR Italian Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC) CAD Housing Starts (JAN) CAD Net Change in Employment (JAN)
Medium
-13.8%
05:00
Medium
48
45.8
05:00
Medium
51
05:30
High
2.1%
2.5%
05:30
Medium
-1.6%
-1.9%
06:45
Medium
3.4%
3.3%
06:45
Medium
3.1%
3.0%
07:00
Medium
15.0B
17.0B
07:00
Low
17.0B
15.3B
07:00
Low
1.4%
-3.4%
07:00
Low
1.6%
-3.7%
07:30
Medium
95
07:45
Low
-103.4B
08:15
Medium
2.9%
09:00
Low
-7.6%
09:00
Low
0.2%
-1.0%
09:00
Low
-7.6%
13:15
Medium
195.0K
198.0K
13:30
High
4.0K
39.8K
13:30
CAD Unemployment Rate (JAN) CAD Full Time Employment Change (JAN) CAD Part Time Employment Change (JAN) CAD Participation Rate (JAN) USD Trade Balance (DEC) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (DEC) USD Wholesale Inventories (DEC)
High
7.2%
7.1%
13:30
Medium
41.2
13:30
Medium
-1.4
13:30
Medium
66.8
13:30
Medium
-$46.0B
-$48.7B
13:30
Low
-1.50B
-1.96B
15:00
Low
0.4%
0.6%
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Daily I Forex Report: 9 February 2013

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DAILY I FOREX REPORT

9TH FEBRUARY 2013

SELL USDJPY BELOW 92.17 tgt 92.03/91.87 SL 92.37

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5764 tgt 1.5778/1.5792 SL 1.5744

HOURLYEURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

HOURLY USDINDEX CHART

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