Digital Re-print January | February 2013

Global Feed Markets: January - February 2013

Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom. All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies, the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis of information published. Copyright 2013 Perendale Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1466-3872

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GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMTs market analyst John Buckley reviews world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of commodities used in food and feed production. His observations will influence your decision-making.
Chicago soft red winter wheat prices have dropped by about 8% since our last review after losing as much as 12% at one stage. In Europe, soft milling wheat futures have dropped by about 8-9% while in export markets, US quality hard spring wheats are down by about 9% too. The smallest declines have been seen in US hard red winter wheats amid caution over the poor condition of the coming crop.

Will 2013 be a year of crop recovery?

ITH most of 2012s adverse supply developments now factored into prices, world grain and feed markets are now starting to fix their sights more firmly on 2013/14 crop prospects. A recovery is certainly needed in 2013 cereal output. Latest estimates show world production this season is dropping by about 75m tonnes or just over 4% but consumption by only 37m tonnes or 2%, the balance coming off stocks. While there have recently been some jitters about South American maize and soyabean crop weather, lower Argentine wheat quality, some winterkill threats in the former Soviet countries and a combination of drought and frost threats to a poorly rated US winter wheat crop, price rallies on the bellwether Chicago futures markets for both grains have largely struggled to hold up. That, in turn, has encouraged European cereal markets, to a large extent, to steer clear of further steep price increases too. In fact, if anything, the global grain and feed markets have maintained gradual downward bias since our last review, the major grains recently trading at their cheapest since last July. Partly this trend has reflected less interest from speculative and other outside money in the trendsetting US futures markets. Even the index funds or institutional investors, who have tended to stick with cereals through thick and thin in the hope of price rises have cashed in a large chunk of their wheat chips in recent weeks, preferring to ride

the remarkable recovery in US and other world stock markets instead. That said, investors havent done badly out of wheat in 2012 which saw this grain close with a near 20% year-on-year gain in Chicago, albeit after trading as much as 45% up earlier in the year. EU milling wheat markets meanwhile closed the year about 50/tonne up (+25%), led by London feedwheat plus 53 or 35%. Interestingly, the wheat markets across the Atlantic diverge completely on their forward views. EU 2013 crop wheat futures are cheaper than current old crop months whereas the US futures outlook shows higher distant prices. In contrast, forward US futures continue to point to significantly cheaper prices for maize, for which current months have come out of 2012 with a gain of only 8% - quite a shift from last August when prices were up by over 30%. Wheat and maize prices have also come under pressure from global export competition. Despite this years smaller Russian, Ukrainian and Kazakh crops, the Black Sea wheat exporters gave their rivals a good run for their money with an aggressive early season export campaign as did the Argentines too from their own smaller wheat crop. Even the EU, with a significantly smaller 2012 wheat harvest, has been running a much more active wheat export campaign so far this season, clocking up a 35% year-on-year gain recently. That may lead to uncomfortably tight supplies here before the season closes in June but it has all helped keep exports from the main supplier, the USA, well

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COMMODITIES

behind their target level and, in turn, helped to keep wheat prices there and on world markets under control. The same goes for the maize market where the past two months have seen unprecedented competition in terms of sales volume and pricing from record South American crops. Some of this is old crop business, some pre-selling of crops harvested from around Feb/Mar of this year onward. Even during an earlier spell of rain delays to Argentine planting and a more recent, rather worrying dry spell, the Latin American maize suppliers seem to have been happy to keep undercutting the US by $20 per tonne and

means longer uptime, lower operating costs, less expenses on maintenance and spares, and half the energy usage. This makes the whole unloading process more economical and environmentally sustainable, especially considering the added demurrage costs to vessels if a pneumatic system breaks down. Lastly, the Bargolink operates at lower noise levels and does not generate lower frequencies than pneumatic systems whose loud droning and changing volumes may constitute a health hazard. Already three customers in China, Croatia and France have been convinced that they can benefit from Bhlers Bargolink. Altogether, Bhlers Bargolink offers an investment-friendly, highly flexible and efficient solution for unloading systems used for inland water transportation in the genuine Buhler manufacturing quality combined with best in class components. to the once dominant global maize supplier which as recently as three or four years ago More InforMatIon: exported twice as much as its Latin American Bhler GmbH rivals. Grain Logistics, CH-9240, Uzwil, Switzerland US sales and thus world maize prices, are alsoTel: +41 719 551111 by another relatively being subdued Fax: +41 719 553949 large Ukrainian crop, enabling 12.5m tonnes Email: grain-logistics@buhlergroup.com of exports. www.buhlergroup.com 2.6m from That may be down Website: last season but its more twice the historical average shipped from this country. These new supplies coming onto the world market

more to win all the notable business among the large Asian feed importing countries (with the exception of China, discussed under our coarse grain section below). . Latest estimates from the USDA suggest these two Lat-Am expor ters combined shipments of maize will reach a record 42m tonnes over 60% more than the forecast for US expor ts (26m) which has been slashed repeatedly in recent months on the competition factor. Its a remarkable challenge

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also beg the question of where all the extra production will go if the US does get the record crop farmers there are expected to plant this spring. The answer is that much of it will go to re-stocking, principally in the USA itseld. If that does happen, the discounts currently offered on new crop (latter 2013) US maize futures will have to get much bigger a development that would help contain wheat prices too by reducing feed demand for fine grains. Europe also needs to grow a bigger maize crop this summer after last years crashed by 11.5m tonnes to a multi-year low of under 55m about 9m under projected EU consumption needs. Europes consequent huge import need at least 8m tonnes is one oif the few bright spots for global exporters in a season when world maize imports are seen tumbling from 103m to 97m tonnes. Maize is also coming under some restraint from a weaker trend in the US corn ethanol market, home for 40% of its crop (and, of course, a large chunk of EU cereal production too). Although US ethanol output is just about matching USDA targets, production margins recently have been poor, often negative, and

Feed use of grain has been holding up better in the US than in Europe and the former Soviet countries and has recently been revised up by the USDA - which also cut US stocks accordingly, especially for maize. However, the initial bullish impact of this news proved shortlived as the Department also raised (rather than lowered, as the market expected) its final estimate of the US maize crop as well as increasing Latin American and other forecasts, resulting in a slightly larger global maize crop for 2012/13 than expected late last year. On the negative side, the forecast for world maize consumption jumped too, largely due to the US adding 7.6m tonnes of usage for the full 2012/13 season (which ends August 31). That means US and world stocks will finish 2012/13 at very low levels in terms of consumption needs about seven weeks of global supply compared with almost double that for wheat (and half of that tied up off-market in China). So, regardless of those extra Latin American and Ukrainian supplies, a big US maize crop rebound is essential this summer to establish a more comfortable stock cushion against possible crop problems in the subsequent year..

peak in the summer months. And, as noted in our last review, the forward futures markets suggest soya will be cheaper next autumn if all the scheduled crop increases come through. So far, things are looking promising for South American supply to reach or even exceed targets. Crops there did go in late because of heavy rains but have avoided the withering droughts that decimated last years output in many areas and some is already being harvested in the early-planted areas of Northern Brazil. The US is meanwhile expected to bump up soya acreage again this spring. However, markets need to see that crop up and running under normal weather conditions before selling into it. There are also some uncertainties over other oilseed supplies after last years disappointing rapeseed and sunflowerseed crops in Canada, Europe and the former Soviet countries. Some revival is needed in these sectors too especially in crops from Europe east and west, to help keep protein costs down. Overall, the picture at this juncture is one of supplies improving and, with a few less global weather problems in coming months, perhaps some further decline in costs of the main grain and feed raw materials.

Main commodity devbelopments since our last review

Wheat prices down
Chicago soft red winter wheat prices have dropped by about 8% since our last review after losing as much as 12% at one stage. In Europe, soft milling wheat futures have dropped by about 8-9% while in export markets, US quality hard spring wheats are down by about 9% too. The smallest declines have been seen in US hard red winter wheats amid caution over the poor condition of the coming crop. The firmest sector of the wheat market has been in former Soviet countries where this seasons smaller crops have been sold into export markets at an aggressive pace earlier in the season to capture the high world prices ruling then. Russia is now paying the price with record feedgrain costs and there has been talk of it needing to backfill with imports, possibly from Europe a development that could hoist prices here too, if it comes about. Russia is already taking some grain from neighbouring Kazakhstan, though, and along with a programme of intervention stock releases this may be enough to cool its internal market and avoid raiding the broader world market. In theory, it could buy US soft red winter wheat if it wanted to, cheaper than at any time since June. Questions have been raised about the

are believed to have already idled about 20% of US capacity. The root cause is the still relatively high price of maize. In the boom years of the last decade, for example, when US capacity was rising regularly by as much as 20-30% a year and before the blend wall or renewable fuel mandate was approached US maize was only $3.50 a bushel, half its current cost.

In the protein sector, two opposing forces have continued to dominate the markets record Chinese demand, centred on dwindling US soya supplies, versus expected record large Latin American soyabean crops. Like the grains, soya prices also failed to hold all their stellar 2012 price gains, finishing the year with an 18.4% increase against a 49.7%

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protected, and the aleurone ment cells protective systems intended for the ductwork layer and and therefore reducing the enviwell as all improves the energy value of the feed. the connected use in potentially explosive atmospheres on ronmental impact. ipment are at risk. This the European market. However, it has combination extent topathogenic bacteria in willbecome apparent than expected crop. This is put this down to cautionary stock-building of with exploBy investing in explosion from a smaller protection, Reducing which world wheat output equipment on recover in 2013. The International Grainsthat still a large one by historical comparison the main food staple. The question is whether each vessel, organisations can safeguard themselves ecofurther nutrithe colon Council tentatively puts output the A third possible mechanism by which 4% uptional benefits are has figured prominently in that phase is completed or has further to run and the country 8 10 April 2014 . Bangkok International Trade & Exhibition Centre (BITEC), Bangkok, Thailand which would be around 682m tonnes. recent world nutritive value of feed is increased by feed achieved because export trade but what higher in the second half of the season. If it has run its enzymes is through the release of oligosac- phytate has the Australia can offer has been course, markets may refocus on the fact that However, the worst-rated US hard red winter quality wheat charides (Choct and Cadogan,2001). These oncapacity to bind higher and higher premiums. world import demand for wheat overall is still crop on modern record albeit sown commanding cana be formed during bit of degradation in thisother important had a bigger exportable crop running about 8% down on the year, allowing larger area is a the a wild card of Canada, which such storage and is Russiascarbohydrates bysouthernminerals pack. So cell wall crop in its main suplast year, has also been actively competing for global wheat prices to relax further. On the plemental enzymes for exports. In both regionsas calcium, zinc, catchment areas and are able to resist global wheat import business. Farmers there other hand, the Near East and others might see further degradation talk digestive enzymes ormanganese, sow between 5% and 10% more this further price cuts as a good buying opportunity. there has been by of either drought intend to iron copper thus andwinterkill clipping as the colon. Once in and year, which will be welcomed for its usually so able to reach much as 25% even 30% the off production potential. Howevera nutri- reducing quality, normal weather permitting. colon these oligosaccharides are that would higher their ent nowhere for beneficial to a national/regionalbioavailability in source near equate bacteria such as Lastly, we should not forget India which has Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus doing whichwellthe digestive tract. trend. US soft red crops are spp very a seventh successive record crop predicted suppressmoregrowth wheat could be sown on Additional in March and needs to clear some and the spring of pathogenic bacteria to arrive such as Salmonella, Clostridium, Campylobacter research has alsopoorly-stored stocks in export How will US, European and Black Sea abandoned acres. Ukraines crop is meanwhile of its record, lector and andin good shape, nomically, established that revealed that Some think it could double sales to could includecoli. probably the best appropriate channels. the Escherichia It is well follow for years, health and crops emerge from a winter of challenging sion, explosion venting or comeback in the secondprotect workers from to around 9m tonnes (also a reducing pathogenic bacteria in the colon inclusion of market weather? suggesting a safety standards and largest world phytase potential risks. improve both improves Sea suppliers export feed conver- can record). Port logistics might limit what it can Will the northern hemisphere have more Black weight gain and the role. Then there amino acid sion ratio in pigs and poultry. have undoubtedlyileal sell pre-harvest and not everybody wants trade show and conference organised specifically for feed ingredients, normal conditions this year? is Europe itself. Crops here FIAAP Asia 2014 is the only dedicated and struggled in Indias making formulation of a and growing region South and South East Asia. codes and standards the UK and Northwest Francedigestibility lower quality additives and it morewithin the dynamicWheat use inoffeeds may ease back if maize from months factor feedgrain (maize) markets. However, Cost saving of excessive wet, recent crops do rebound but in the meantime otential health problems, feed formulation freezingdietary foravailNew for 2014 Supported by sure employers in furtherof the More InforMatIon: and the EU is another bearish influence on prices. Regardless rain and flooding. East Europeanable itmetabolisable mechanism by which cheaperThe Thailand Convention could raise use in wheat prices Now including the first ASEAN Feed Summit and Exhibition Bureau (Ravindran rkers fromthe crops have also had some harsh weatherenergy Wheat prices will also be influenced in the being harmed of BS&Bis increased, the energy value feed Safety Systems this sector Specialist conferences Co-located with 2001). ahead ubstances factwith varying levels significantprotection. Willet al monthsPhytate by the level exhibition will be supported in that it occurs is of of snow161 955 4202 the workThe of import demand. VICTAM Asia 2014 Tel: +44 importance by its own specialist conferences. www.victam.com Maize supplies could surge in K, under the aproducers and nutritionists. 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This region since the can result in significant savings in feed costs estingly, in the last for producers where, for example, some of decade, research the wheat-based portion of the diet can be has demonstrated replaced with cheaper barley, providing aNAI,that administering I ND N IA HE suitable blend beta-glucanase and xylanase unconventionPerformance, ally high doses or enzymes are incorporated into the diet. flexibility and stability by superdosing phytase in diets that Phytase development st The 1990s saw the development of the animal perform73 can be sub9F next enzyme of significant importance in ani-bruarance e y 20 1 mal nutrition, phytase. Phosphorous is a very stantially improved important and valuable mineral element in all (Cowieson et al species as it is crucial for bone development 2011). May 21-23, 2013 | Moscow, Russia and metabolic processes. In plants, the majority of phosphorous is Challenges stored in the form of phytate. Monogastrics associated are unable to utilise the phosphorous in with Raise your standards of performance with phytate so it is a major source of an enzymes use Safety, sustainability and food supply in milling Econase XT and Mixer Liquid Application. important nutrient that is normally wasted. One of the for the 21st Century Instead, producers have to supplement diets major challenges Looking for improved profitability in uncertain times? withRaw materials - demand & supplements with the curinorganic phosphorous supply trends Econase XT Mixer Liquid Application technology optimises although & food safety on inorganic phos- rent use of feed dependence production and feed efficiency, offering you significant Food phorous supplements is developments cost savings. 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COMMODITIES
FEATURE

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KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD

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disappointingly small crop gave prices a lift in January. Earlier, the Chicago futures market had been down as much as 10% from its early December highs. The USDA raised its US feeding number by 7.6m tonnes to 113m. However, it also cut US exports by 5m tonnes and raised the 2012 final crop estimate by 1.4m, limiting the impact on US ending stocks to a more manageable 1.1m tonne decline. Given that US exports are still running well behind the target pace, its possible that figure could go lower still, freeing up a little more ending stock. On the plus side for supplies, USDA raised combined South American production by 1.5m tonnes and the regions expor ts by 3.5m. With increments to other, smaller producers, world corn output actually increased last month to 852.3m from 849.1m tonnes. Nonetheless, world ending stocks have tightened further still. On the restraining side, as mentioned above, competition for US maize on world markets is keeping a lid on prices. This is coming not only from South American and east European maize exports but from still relatively cheap feed wheat, including Indian and even some South American and is expected to continue into second quarter 2013. Despite USDAs upward revision, US feed use of maize, also taking about 40% of production, will still be about 2m tonnes lower than last years and about 9m less than in 2010/11. However, US ethanol use is forecast about 10% down this season and may fall further still if profitability fails to stem the current spate of plant shutdowns and slowdowns. All of this could spell slightly larger stocks to start the new US season on September 1.

KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD

US 2013 crop maize planting area and growing weather will determine whether US and global stocks of the grain return to more normal levels How long will export competition from Latin America, former Soviet countries and India contiunue intoi second quarter 2013? The South American crops look promising but need more rain as we go to press Will US corn ethanol use revive after an unusual decline in 2012? Chinese demand for maize has grown 37% in just four years can its crop keep up or will they raid the world market for larger volumes? Speculators enthusiasm to buy into any crop weather problems

Proteins/oilmeals - demand to mop up extra soya?

SOYA supplies are still improving. The final US harvest estimate has been revised up by more than expected while South American crops are looking closer to attaining the record 144.25m (plus 33.25m) forecast by the USDA . T he tot al incr ea se in world output equals about 26m tonnes more meal whereas global consumption is only expected to increase by about 5.2m. Although there have been some dry weather jitters recently, the LatAm crops are now entering the home run and some are already starting harvest so, barring an extended dry spell or some last minute harvest weather problems, soya demand should be making its annual shift to the southern hemisphere suppliers shortly.

This will be none too soon for the US market which has been selling its supplies out far too fas t for comfor t, chief ly feeding record first-half-season demand from top buyer China. Although some of these advance bookings (ranging into 2013.14 now) could be washed out and switched to South American, the US is likely to star t next season with very small stocks. That will make markets sensitive over the coming months to any US weather problems, before, during and well after sowing the crop around April/May. If all goes well, the US should fur ther boost 2013 supplies and help keep prices moving lower. Protein users have become increasingly dependent on soya in this season of disappointing rapeseed and sunflowerseed production. Apart from a little extra feeding of palm kernel and groundnut meal, almost all the increase in this seasons oilmeal consumption will be fed by soyabean products. At this stage, there are no firm pointers to alternative oilmeals making a much bigger contribution in 2013/14 but we still have to see how Canadian rapeseed, EU and former Soviet countries spring rape and sunflower plantings pan out. So far this lack of substitutes has helped keep soya prices relatively f irm. Despite dipping by around 7% at one stage since our last review, the Chicago market has recently recouped most of its losses. However, if the US gets the 90m tonne crop some expect in 2013, prices should come down more emphatically.

World barley production also fell to a multi-year low this season at just under 130m tonnes and with consumption running closer to 133m, ending stocks will fall to a multi-year low of under 20m tonnes. Stocks will be par ticularly low within the EU by end-June 3.6m tonne compared with 15.6m just three years ago so there is not much leeway if anything goes wrong with the next crop.

KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD

South American crop weather during the remainder of the growing/harvest period The timing of importers switch to Lat-Am from US supplies US spring planting decisions and accompanying weather Chinese demand for soya meal EU/CIS rapeseed & sunflowerseed and Canadian canola plantings and weather

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FEATURE the product is not efficient. (data from Dr. alpha and beta forms)or mannans. Not associated form of selenium in the aniMorgane Henry, Hellenic Center for marine all the YCW are equal. Efficiency should mals body and then allow making organic be checked as a prerequisite to use, or selenium which are readily available when Research , 2011) oxidative stress YCW products, depending Grain & Feed Milling Technology magazine has two new options for you reactions occur. on the quality change, YCW. - online and At minute! The main application would be in aquaof the autolysed yeast separation, containup to the LFA we have conducted a survey also significant percentages of proteins and of four YCW (2 bakery and 2 brewery culture as fish meal is a main supply of lipids. It should be noted that the lower the yeasts) produced in 4 of our own facto- selenium and the development of diets with level of proteins, the higher of level of carbo- ries in the same L. Anguillarum challenge less fish meal will require compensation of hydrates, and then the better immunostimu- in sea bass supplemented at 0.5 g/kg selenium in aquafeed formulae. Such an lation from the YCW is. Various quality of of feed for 8 weeks. Only 2 responded application could be useful in preventing YCW are on the animal production market significantly (1 bakery, 1 brewery), the the oxidation of poly unsaturated fatty acids THE and major differences can be found between remaining 2 had even negative results at 4 (PUFA) in fish flesh. Chromium yeast is products depending on the strain, the sub- weeks (lower survival than control). This seldom used in aquaculture diets. strate used to produce the yeast, and event result shows first that not all is understood in the way these products work Conclusion the drying process. Mannans represent as most 25-27 per- and that one particular YCW cannot be Yeast products are getting more frecent of YCW in good quality YCW from replaced by another. quently used in aquaculture. Some appliThe Global Miller blog is an online offshoot The Global Milling News service is a new primary grown yeasts, but can be found cations are promising as the use as an of Grain & Feed Milling Technology magazine. development from the Perendale Publishers as low as 9 percent in crude preparation Selenium yeast alternative source of proteins or as a sanitary While the bi-monthly magazine covers millLimited family of grain, feed and our milling coming from industry by-products. Glucans Yeast can be induced to be a source and welfare enhancer. However many ing issues in-depth, the Global Miller takes a publications. The site scours the web to nd or poly-glucose can range from 18 To 40 of organic selenium, mainly under the products ranging from crude ethanol yeast lighter approach. The columnists dig out the relevant stories from around the globe. The percent. YCW Protein level remains the form of seleniomethionine, which is then by-products to more purified beta-glucans best daily industry stories, show and event information is then ranked and orgnaised by most convenient indicator of quality, the stored in proteins. During the growth are available on the market. Therefore news and highlights from the print magazine topic, making it easy to nd information. If best products being those having lower of bakers yeast, selenium is added to potential users must accurately select them and bring them to you ever day ... youre searching for a specic topic, youll nitrogen content. The variability between the medium and is replacing sulphurnd it at Global Milling News. in in function of their targeted application. It is batches can also be very high. Texture methionine. The excess of selenium is also as important to select a reliable source should be checked first. Good YCW often then eliminated by careful washing steps of the products to ensure a consistency of have a smooth, fine texture, low granu- (see Figure 5) to ensure that the selenium the supply and the quality. lometry and a light beige colour. There is left is 97-99 percent organic. Selenium also the tendency to believe that all YCW yeast should be then checked for the All of our services are also available for your smart More InforMatIon: phone.Visit http://www.gfmt.co.uk/pplapp for a demo are the same and that differentiation To nd out more about our news services visit: of highest percentage of selenomethionine version of our app - or use the QR code Website: www.yeast-science.com to get the app products must be done to the highest level and the consistency between batches. FREE on your mobile. http://www.gfmt.co.uk/millingnews of glucans (sometimes measured as both Seleniomethionine is the main carbon-

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