A Research of Emergency Classification Based Fuzzy AHP and Cluster Analysis

Song Shasha, Dai Feng, Liu jingxu, Wei baolu

Institute of Information Engineering, Information Engineering University,
Zhengzhou china
hu_yeahe@126.com
Abstract-The traditional emergency classification is lack of
dynamic analysis in emergency rescue and disaster incident
management; it is difficult to accurately quantify the
classification and providing practical guidance and scientific
issues. In this paper, Fuzzy AHP and cluster analysis of the
classification is researched, it can effectively integrate expert
consensus, it can meet emergency requirements and reflect
the dynamic classification in the emergencies.
Keywords: Emergency; classification; fuzzy analytic hierarchy
process; cluster analysis
I INTRODUCTION
In recent years, frequent emergencies caused a lot of
painful tragedy.2001, the United States "9.ll" eventSars
incident in 20032008 earthquake2010, continuing
drought in Southwest and Yushu earthquake, etc. Require
us to further improve the emergency management system.
How to construct emergency plans for sciencehow fast
and accurate classification of the incident became the
focus of emergency management and difficulties.
Aspects of the current classification in emergencies,
many domestic and foreign experts to carry out a large
amount of research. li-xinYi used the Delphi survey of
experts and AHP, proposed urban fire hazard index,
urban fire disaster index, the concept of urban fire risk
index, designed a combination of quantitative and
qualitative risk evaluation index system of urban fire[1].
RAnbalagan&Bhawani Singh,proposed risk assessment
matrix[2]. Jingai Wang, wo used in 2000 sand disaster
information, causing and bearing sand disaster by disaster
index CH, construction of a sanddisaster risk WX, the
preparation of the sand disaster risk assessment
plan[3].chong-fu Huang and so the probability of risk for
problems in the past, defined by fuzzy sets means the
possibility of natural disaster risk city, and put forward a
comprehensive evaluation model and two comprehensive
evaluation mode[4] Yu-min Tian, who will be
probabilistic methods will be combined with the fuzzy
evaluation, establish a high probability of fire risks fuzzy
comprehensive evaluation model, evaluated of fire risk
assessment[5].
According to the domestic and foreign literature, for
disasters or emergencies classification, are built on the
basis of ex-post evaluation ,rarely occurs in emergencies,
or occurred prior to the assessment of levels. For
scientific and reasonable classification of the unexpected
events, this paper presents a cluster analysis of fuzzy
AHP reasonable classification of the emergency, for
scientific development of emergency agency
management.
II CLASSIFICATION PROBLEMS AND METHODS
Grading to emergencies classification, mainly to
determine harmful levels of emergency and rescue extent,
according to classification results, after the incident at the
sudden choice of disposal options quickly, rational
allocation of resources. The traditional classifications
there are three issues emergency.
1. Most of the traditional classification is based on
the hazards incident to grade level, purpose is to pursue
the parties responsible.
2. The traditional classification methods to
emergencies as a simple single-stage event. Human can
only passively accept the results and post-disaster relief
organizations, which is lack of emergency rescue and
treatment of dynamic analysis.
3. For some emergencies, which is lack of an
accurate understanding of the mechanism of eventsit is
difficult to accurately quantify the emergency
classification.
The traditional classification scheme can be seen
later, the static, can not be good for policy makers to
provide scientific and effective reference, which leads to
the development of contingency plans and the actual
non-compliance. When a change is in disaster, field
commanders to rely more on the experience of making
judgments, which is lack of contingency plans for the
dynamic correction method.
In this paper, based on previous academic research,
we make use of fuzzy AHP to determine the classification
of metrics emergencies by cluster analysis classification
of emergencies.
III FUZZY CLUSTERING ANALYSIS METHOD
First, the traditional AHP will fill the opinion of
experts symmetric comparison matrix, then calculate the
eigenvectors of the matrix of each class. Feature vector
integration at all levels after, getting the value of the
relative priority of each index. Experts rate the use of
different values for "equally important", "slightly
important", "significantly important", "strongly
important", "extremely important" and other scales. This
will have a problem, imprecision of subjective judgments
about the value of experts as a precise value to deal. We
propose a fuzzy analytic hierarchy, the first use triangular
fuzzy numbers to represent any two elements between the
relative importances of factors, decision-making criteria
and then calculate the fuzzy weight.
2011 International Conference on Future Computer Science and Education
978-0-7695-4533-2/11 $26.00 2011 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/ICFCSE.2011.161
646
2011 International Conference on Future Computer Science and Education
978-0-7695-4533-2/11 $26.00 2011 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/ICFCSE.2011.161
646
2011 International Conference on Future Computer Science and Education
978-0-7695-4533-2/11 $26.00 2011 IEEE
DOI 10.1109/ICFCSE.2011.161
646

Fuzzy Sets A=(cab)is a triangular fuzzy number,

the subordinate function is UA(x)

s s s
s s

s s

=
b a c otherwise
b x a
b a
b x
a x c
c a
c x
U
X A
0 , 0
) (
eq1.1

First question to each expert,indicators of access to
each expert for comparison between two triangular fuzzy
number: ) , , (
) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( k
ij
k
ij
k
ij
k
ij
b a c A = ;which
) (k
ij
c said the
expert K for the two indicators i and j pessimistic
assessment of the relative importance,
) (k
ij
a said expert K
for the two indicators i and j average assessment of the
relative importance,
) (k
ij
b said expert K for the two
indicators i and j optimistic assessment of the relative
importance. Integrated use of triangular fuzzy numbers
the views of experts, can represent the relative importance
of the expert level between two views of the ambiguity,
not only avoid the use of geometric mean method when
the result of integration of expert opinions of experts and
lack of unique views, and can simulate the human
thinking subjectivity, fuzziness and uncertainty. This
article uses the general model to integrate the average
results of the evaluation experts. The mathematical
expression for the average general:

1
2 1
3 2 1
) ( ) , , , , (
n
a a a
a a a a h
n
n
+ + +
=


eq1.2

Where is the average number of modes with
different parameters.
, from1.2
) , , , min( ) , , , (
2 1 2 1 n n
a a a a a a h =


expert consensus that the minimum value.
from 1.2
) , , , max( ) , , , (
2 1 2 1 n n
a a a a a a h =

expert consensus that the maximum.
0 from 1.2
n
n n
a a a a a a h
/ 1
2 1 2 1 0
) , , , ( ) , , , ( =
expert consensus that the geometric mean.
1 from 1.2
n
a a a
a a a h
n
n
) , , , (
) , , , (
2 1
2 1 1

=

Expert consensus that the arithmetic average.
1 from 1.2
)
1 1 1
(
) , , , (
2 1
2 1 1
n
n
a a a
n
a a a h
+ + +
=

Expert consensus that the harmonic mean.
Note by the average number of known generalized
model, the minimum and maximum values represent the
results of expert evaluation of a minimum and maximum
average, is an extreme form of expert consensus. But in
the expert consensus between the maximum and
minimum, there are many known and unknown function
values form a consensus of experts(for example:
geometric mean, harmonic mean and arithmetic mean,
etc).In practice, they use a geometric mean, so this article
uses the geometric mean to represent the consensus of
experts of different possibilities.
We can get triangular fuzzy number of experts using
formula 1.3

=
=
=
=
[
=
) , , max(
) (
) , , min(
) , , (
) ( ) 1 (
1
) (
) ( ) 1 (
n
ij ij ij
n
n
k
k
ij ij
n
ij ij ij
ij ij ij ij
b b b
a a
c c c
b a c A

eq1.3
Obtained by the expert assessment of the weight is a
fuzzy value, we must approach through defuzzification to
convert a non-fuzzy valued fuzzy number, we made use
of Teng and Tzellg gravity method[6] to solve fuzzy.
Center of gravity method has the advantage of the full
protection of the objectivity of decision-making and
policy-makers have not joined the preferences. Ambiguity
of the calculation is as follows:
3 3
) ( ) (
ij ij ij
ij
ij ij ij ij
ij
b a c
c
c a c b
DA
+ +
= +
+
=

eq1,4
After defuzzification to calculate the priority weight
of each indicator. At this point can invite experts, based
on an incident rate index, scores for each indicator
multiplied by the corresponding priorities, then the
product will be added to the composite score for each
event. After the use of clustering, the distance to the event
as the reference points, we make two cases which have
close distance as a new case, through computerring the
distance between new case and last cases we cluster all
the case., until becoming only one case.
IV APPLICATION OF THE ALGORITHMS
We classify a debris flow to introduce the application
of fuzzy AHP.
(1) Triangular fuzzy numbers between any two
elements of the relative importance of criteria and then
come to the decision-making fuzzy weight.
Two elements is if the four elements are B1B2B3
B4remove an element, respectively, with the other three
elements of comparison, the expert scoring. So many
experts have any two elements of the evaluation, Such as
B1 and B2, there will be (1,1,2), (2,1,2) (0.5,0.5,0.5), and
so many experts in the evaluation. Using the formula,
take the multiple views of the experts into a fuzzy number
(c, a, b), the fuzzy number is fuzzy weight. shown in
Table 1.
A B1 B2 B3 B4
B1 (1,1,1) (1,1,2) (1/2,1,1) (2,3,5)
B2 (1/2,1,1) (1,1,1) (1/2,1,1) (1,2,4)
B3 (1,1,2) (1,1,2) (1,1,1) (1,2,4)
B4 (1/5,1/3,1/2) (1/4,1/2,1) (1/4,1/2,1) (1,1,1)
Table 1 many experts to assess the fuzzy matrix
647 647 647

(2) The use of center of gravity defuzzification

Use gravity method formula D = (c + a + b) / 3
calculation above fuzzy matrix, D after the value for the
solution of fuzzy, As shown in Table 2.
D B1 B2 B3 B4
B1 1 4/3 3/4 10/3
B2 3/4 1 3/4 7/3
B3 4/3 4/3 1 7/3
B4 3/10 3/7 3/7 1
Table 2 Matrix after defuzzification
(3) Calculating the priority weight of each factor W.
Summing B1, B2, B3, B4 each line in table2 we can
get H1, H2, H3, H4Wi = Hi / (H1 + H2 + H3 + H4), as
shown in Table 3.
D B1 B2 B3 B4 Wi
B1 1 4/3 3/4 10/3 0.339
B2 3/4 1 3/4 7/3 0.245
B3 4/3 4/3 1 7/3 0.305
B4 3/10 3/7 3/7 1 0.111
Table 3, the relative importance of different criteria
weights
(4) Using of linear weighted rate on a
comprehensive disaster
O=0.339r1+0.245r2+0.305r3+0.111r4 1.5
r1, r2, r3, r4 elements in the object representing the
debris flow, time factors, geographical factors, the event
mechanismscore of the four indicatorspoints can be
used 5-point or 10 point systemwe evaluate each
indicators using 5-point scale, and get the evaluation of
the case through weighted sum. As shown in Table 4.
case
object
elements
geographical
factors
time
element
event
mechanism
score
case1 5 2 3 4 3.544
case2 2 1 1 3 1.561
case 3 5 5 4 5 4.695
case 4 5 4 2 5 3.840
case 5 4 1 4 4 3.265
case 6 3 2 4 5 3.282
case 7 5 3 2 4 3.484
case 8 2 2 4 1 2.499
case 9 1 3 2 4 2.128
case 10 4 2 3 5 3.316
Table 4 10 landslides occurred in an area of evaluation
results
(5) The use of cluster analysis to classify
Instance of each event calculated distance between
the scores. As shown in Table 5.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 0 1.983 1.151 0.296 0.279 0.262 0.06 1.045 1.416 0.228
2
1.983 0 3.134 2.279 1.704 1.721 1.923 0.938 0.567 1.755
3
1.151 3.134 0 0.855 1.43 1.413 1.211 2.196 2.567 1.379
4
0.296 2.279 0.855 0 0.575 0.558 0.356 1.341 1.712 0.524
5
0.279 1.704 1.43 0.575 0 0.017 0.219 0.766 1.137 0.051
6
0.262 1.721 1.413 0.558 0.017 0 0.202 0.783 1.154 0.034
7
0.06 1.923 1.211 0.356 0.219 0.202 0 0.985 1.356 0.168
8
1.045 0.938 2.196 1.341 0.766 0.783 0.985 0 0.371 0.817
9
1.416 0.567 2.567 1.712 1.137 1.154 1.356 0.371 0 1.188
10
0.228 1.755 1.379 0.524 0.051 0.034 0.168 0.817 1.188 0
Table 5 score in the Euclidean distance matrix of debris flow
Select from the smallest two categories into a new
class, then calculate the new class and the distance
between the other classes, again merge the two categories
from the smallest, so continue, decreased in each class
merger, until all samples are clustered together so far. For
example, in the first row of Table 1-5(event 1 and other
events that the distance), event 1 and event 7 into a new
class. Calculated using the formula 1.6 Synthesis of the
new, the distance between classes and other types.
2 2 2 2 2 2
sj si ij sj j si i rs
D D D D d D d D + + + = |

Drs said that the new class of distance r and s, i and j
that event 1 and event 7, i=1j=7s said that the new class
other than class(Event 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10). Continued after
the new class of computing r and other
events(2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10) distance, and calculate the
distance of a new class of merger, when all the events
together as a class end computing.
A disaster
B disaster
C disaster
case1
case7
case2
csae9
case8
case3
case4
case5
case6
case10
2 categories
3 categories
4 categories

Figure 1 Classification results of debris flow
This method used the classification method to
control the number of classification on the number of
incidents, so far, and there is no single recognized
standard, only the mechanism according to the nature of
648 648 648

emergencies and convenience of their own emergency

management operations to determine.
V SUMMARY
In the identification and evaluation of emergency,
first, we established on the basis of classification. This is
because the rational division of the type and level of
emergency is the emergency management sector is
booming and scientific staffing, equipment, and
equipment based on the basis of the most important
prerequisite is the establishment plan, emergency
management is the key technology.
This article uses the fuzzy AHP method to determine
the emergency classification metrics, using cluster
analysis for classification of emergencies. Whenever a
new emergencies occur, its information will be added to
existing databases, and historical data together with the
female parent as data clustering, which first developed
more than a good grading standards, and then assess the
incident points better reflect the emergency classification
level of the dynamic.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This work is supported by the National Social
Science Foundation of China (No. 09&ZD014)
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