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Overview:
Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104
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Highlights
US NAHB Housing Market Index declined to 46-mark in February. German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 48.2-level in last month. Japans Trade Balance was at a deficit of 0.68 trillion Yen in January. European ZEW Economic Sentiment increased to 42.4-mark in Feb. Asia markets are trading higher today on the back of rise in the earnings of the Japanese exporters. Additionally, German investor confidence which came on a favorable note yesterday also supported an upside in the market sentiments. US National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index declined by 1 point to 46-mark in February as against a rise of 47level in January. Chinas Foreign Direct Investment declined by 7.3 percent in January from earlier fall of 3.7 percent a month ago.
as on February 19, 2013 WoW 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.1 2.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -2.7 -4.8 -2.3 #N/A 0.3 MoM -1.8 -1.7 2.4 3.0 -6.2 -0.5 -5.5 4.1 0.4 -4.9 -8.5 2.6 #N/A 0.1 YoY 6.7 7.4 8.4 12.5 -0.4 1.6 -11.6 19.9 -6.4 -7.0 -11.4 -2.5 #N/A -1.8
US Dollar Index
US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note and depreciated marginally in yesterdays trading session on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Apart from that, rise in the German and the European investors confidence data coupled with US markets trading on a positive note also exerted downside pressure on the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on the back of US Housing Market Index data coming on unfavorable note. The currency touched an intra-day low of 80.51 and closed at 80.55 on Tuesday.
Source: Reuters
US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE)** US $ / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)** 80.55 54.12 54.31 54.32 Prev. day 0.0 0.2 -0.04 -0.03
as on February 19, 2013 WoW 0.5 -0.6 0.61 0.63 MoM 0.7 -0.7 0.84 0.86 YoY 1.4 -9.2 10.02 10.04
Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated marginally in the last trading hour on Monday taking cues from late foreign fund inflows coupled with selling of dollars from exporters. Apart from that, upbeat domestic market sentiments also supported an upside in the currency. However, major part of the day the currency remained depreciated on account of dollar demand from oil importers coupled with strength in the DX. Further, statement from countrys central bank chief on Saturday said that there is limited scope for monetary easing which also exerted downside pressure on the currency. It touched an intraday high of 54.14 and closed at 54.185 against dollar on Monday. For the month of February 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.21,428.10 crores ($4,019.48 million) as on 18th February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.43,487.10 crores ($8,078.80 million) till th 18 February 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped as a result of dollar demand from oil importers.
Source: Reuters th (** Prices as on 18 February as markets closed on eve of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti)
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down
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Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.3 percent yesterday taking cues from German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased by 16.7 points to 48.2-level in February as against a rise of 3.15-mark in January. European ZEW Economic Sentiment rose by 11.2 points to 42.4-mark in current month from earlier rise of 31.2-level in January. Additionally, weakness in the DX along with upbeat market sentiments also supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3396 and closed at 1.3384 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate on account of German PPI data expected to come on a positive note. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX will also act as a positive factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Feb13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 72.35/72.20 72.65/72.85 valid for February 20, 2013 Support Resistance
Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Feb 13 Futures (NSE)** Euro / INR Feb13 Futures (MCXSX)** 1.3386 72.60 72.46 72.5 Prev. day 0.3 0.0 0.08 0.10
as on February 19, 2013 WoW -0.5 -0.3 0.36 0.42 MoM 0.5 -1.7 0.72 0.75 11.75 11.79 YoY 1.1
Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. However, weakness in the DX along with rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments cushioned sharp fall in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5413 and closed at 1.5422 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note in todays trade on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, countrys unemployment rate and average earnings index is expected to come on a favorable note which will also support an upside in the currency. However, Claimant Count Change is expected to decline but would be less than previous which will cap sharp gains of even reversal in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for February 20, 2013 Support 83.80/83.60 Resistance 84.25/84.50
GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE)** GBP / INR Feb 13 Futures (MCX-SX)** 1.5422 83.867 84.03 Prev. day -0.27 -0.52 -0.15
84.02
-0.15
-0.80
-2.12
7.47
Source: Reuters
Source: Telequote
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JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments in the early part of the trade which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Japans Trade Balance was at a deficit of 0.68 trillion Yen in January as against a previous deficit of 0.78 trillion Yen a month ago. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 93.27 and closed at 93.56 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, downside in the currency will be seen as a result of countrys trade balance data coming on a negative note. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Feb 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for February 20, 2013 Support 57.55/57.20 Resistance 58.35/58.84
Source: Telequote
as on February 19, 2013 Last 93.56 0.5788 57.85 57.84 Prev day -0.4 -0.40 -1.41 -1.41 WoW 0.1 1.03 -0.03 -0.05 MoM 5.5 -3.00 -3.60 -3.62 YoY 17.5 -6.69 -7.33 -7.36
JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (NSE)** JPY 100 / INR Feb13 Futures (MCX-SX)**
Source: Reuters
Actual -0.68T -
Forecast -0.59T 0.4% -5.3K 0-0-9 7.7% 0.92M 0.3% 0.2% 0.93M -
Previous -0.80T -0.3% -12.1K 0-0-9 7.7% 1.56/1.7 0.91M -0.2% 0.1% 0.95M 7.40%
Impact Medium Medium High High Medium Medium High High Medium Medium Medium
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