Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 21, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104view:

view

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. T his document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 21, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Building Permits increased by 0.93 million in January. UKs Unemployment Rate rose by 7.8 percent in December. US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2 percent in last month. European Consumer Confidence was at -24-mark in January Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of statement from US Federal Reserve that central bank may slow or stop buying assets sooner than expected. US Building Permits was at 0.93 million in January as against a rise of 0.91 million in December. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2 percent in last month from earlier decline of 0.2 percent in December. Core PPI was at 0.2 percent in January as compared to rise of 0.1 percent in prior month. Housing Starts declined to 0.89 million in January with respect to rise of 0.97 million in earlier month. US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated sharply by 0.8 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, statement from US Federal Reserve that central bank may slow or stop buying assets program sooner than expectations also acted as a positive factor for the DX. Further, US equities also traded on a negative note which also supported an upside in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day high of 81.23 and closed at 81.16 on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated as a result of foreign funds buying rupees to participate in debt limit sale which is applicable to foreigners. India will auction around $12.3 billion of debt on Friday, which includes $10 billion of new government and corporate bonds. Additionally, upbeat domestic market sentiments also supported an upside in the currency. However, less movement was observed in the markets on account of most state run banks were less operative due to strike. It touched an intra-day high of 54.015 and closed at 54.07 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of February 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.21,425.90 th crores ($4,019.08 million) as on 20 February 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.43,484.90 crores ($8,078.40 million) till th 20 February 2013.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 54.07 Prev day 0.1

as on 20 February, 2013 w-o-w -0.5 m-o-m -0.7 y-o-y -9.0

$/Euro (Spot)

1.328

-0.8

-1.3

-0.3

0.3

Dollar Index NIFTY

81.16

0.8

1.2

1.5

2.1

5943.1

0.1

0.2

-1.8

6.0

SENSEX

19642.8

0.0

0.2

-1.9

7.4

DJIA

13927.54

-0.8

-0.7

1.1

7.4

S&P

1512.0

-1.2

-0.6

1.7

11.1

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated by 0.8 percent yesterday taking cues from European Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at 24-mark in the month of January. French CPI declined by 0.5 percent in January from earlier rise of 0.3 percent in December. German Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at -0.5 percent in the month of January. Further, statement from US Federal Reserve of ending its bond buying plan before the expectations coupled with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of German Producer Price Index (PPI) was at 0.8 percent in January as against a decline of 0.3 percent in December. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3269 and closed at 1.328 against dollar on Wednesday.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 21, 2013

Bullion Gold

International Commodities

Spot gold prices traded with a negative bias and ended 2.6 percent lower on the back of signs of global recovery in the key consuming nations. Apart from this worries amongst the market participants that the Federal Reserve may stop or slow its bond buying programme created bearish market sentiments. There were also reports of liquidation by the hedge funds which acted as bearish factor for the gold prices. Strength in the DX added to the losses in the spot gold prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1.558.24/oz and closed at $1,562.3/ounce on Wednesday. On the MCX, Gold April contract ended 1.6 percent lower taking cues from trend in the spot gold prices. Appreciation in the rupee also pulled the gold prices lower. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs.29,579/10 gms on Wednesday after touching an intra-day low of Rs. 29,505/ 10gms.

Market Highlights - Gold (% change)

Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (April13) MCX Gold (April13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1562.3 29390.0 Prev. day -2.6 -1.2

as on 20 February, 2013 WoW -4.9 -2.5 MoM -7.2 -3.2 YoY -9.9 #N/A

1588.5

-1.2

-3.4

-5.9

-8.3

$/oz

1577.6

-1.6

-4.1

-6.5

#N/A

Rs /10 gms

29579.0

-1.6

-3.2

-3.3

#N/A

Silver
Tracing weakness in the spot gold prices, spot silver also fell 3 percent on Wednesday. Strength in the DX along with bearishness in the base metals pack also exerted a downside pressure on the silver prices. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $28.26/oz and closed at $ 28.5 per oz on Wednesday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices declined 2.6 percent and closed at Rs. 53,720/kg on Wednesday and touched an intra-day low of Rs. 53,266/ kg. Silver prices on MCX traced weakness in the spot silver prices. Appreciation in the Indian rupee also acted as a bearish factor for the silver prices on MCX. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Mar13) MCX Silver (Mar13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 28.5 55750.0 Prev day -3.0 -2.3

Source: Reuters

as on 20 February, 2013 WoW -7.2 -4.4 MoM -10.4 -5.9 YoY -15.0 #N/A

$/oz $/ oz

2911.0 2861.5

-3.0 -2.7

-6.2 -7.3

-8.5 -10.3

-13.3 #N/A

Outlook
In the intra-day, we expect precious metals to extend the losses of the previous day on the back of worries amongst the market participants over the continuation of the stimulus measures by the US Federal Reserve. The Fed officials remained divided over the issue. They might stop or slow down the program. Strength in the DX is also expected to weigh on the prices. In the domestic market, depreciation in the rupee is expected to cushion fall in the MCX Gold prices. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Apr13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Mar13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for February 21, 2013 Support 1553/1548 29480/29380 28.25/28.10 53400/53100 Resistance 1564/1571

Rs / kg

53720.0

-2.6

-6.5

-9.6

#N/A

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

29700/29820 28.60/28.85 54100/54500

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 21, 2013

Energy Crude Oil

International Commodities
Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil WTI (Spot) Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (March13) ICE Brent Crude (March13) MCX Crude (Mar 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Last 94.9 117.4 94.5 Prev. day -1.8 -0.7 -2.3 WoW -2.2 -1.9 -2.6

Nymex crude oil prices declined sharply around 2.3 percent yesterday on the back of more than expected rise in US crude oil inventories. Additionally, statement from the US Federal Reserve of ending its bond buying program before the expectations also exerted downside pressure on the crude oil prices. Further, strength in the DX also acted as a negative factor for the crude prices. Oil prices touched an intra-day low of $93.92/bbl and closed at $94.46/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices declined by 0.9 percent and closed at Rs.5,164/bbl after touching an intra-day low of Rs.5,132/bbl on Wednesday. API Inventories Data As per the American Petroleum Institute (API) report last night, US crude oil inventories rose more than expected by 3.0 million barrels to 372.49 million barrels for the week ending on 15th February 2013. Gasoline inventories fell by 122,000 barrels to 232.60 million barrels and whereas distillate inventories dropped by 1.6 million barrels to 126.07 million barrels for the same week. EIA Inventories Forecast: The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 9:30pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to rise by 1.8 million barrels for the week ending on 15th February 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to fall by 0.7 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are expected to drop by 1.6 million barrels for the same period.

as on 20 February, 2013 MoM -0.7 4.4 -1.2 YoY #N/A -4.5 #N/A

$/bbl

115.6

-1.6

-2.6

3.3

-3.7

Rs/bbl

5164.0

-0.9

-1.6

0.3

#N/A
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Feb 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.279 178.5 Prev. day 0.21 0.45

as on 20 February, 2013

WoW -0.82 -0.28

MoM -8.05 -7.18

YoY 22.17 38.37

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Natural Gas:
EIA Inventories Forecast: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories and US natural gas inventory are expected to decline by 119 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending on 15th February 2013. Outlook In todays session, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower due to worries amongst the market participation over continuation of the stimulus program offered by the US Federal Reserve. US Federal Reserve officials think that they must stop or slow the program. Strength in the DX along with expectation of rise in the US crude oil inventories might exert downside pressure on the crude oil prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee is likely to cushion fall in the crude oil prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook valid for February 21, 2013
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Mar 13 NYMEX Brent Crude Oil Mar13 MCX Brent Crude Oil Mar13 $/bbl Rs/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl Support 93.85/93.10 5130/5090 114.15/113.20 6250/6200 Resistance 95.10/95.85 5200/5240 115.80/116.70 6340/6390
Source: Telequote

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 21, 2013

Base Metals

International Commodities
Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Feb13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Feb13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Feb13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead Feb13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Feb13)
Source: Reuters

Base metals pack extended the losses of the earlier session. This was on account of Chinese government taking steps to curb down the property purchases. Rise in the LME stocks also led to the fall in the metals prices. Strength in the DX also supported the decline. Signs that US Federal Reserve might discontinue or slow down its bond buying program also added to the losses in the base metals Signs of recovery in the US housing sector however restricted the fall in the metal prices. The US building permits rose at 930,000 levels in January as compared to 910,000. MCX metal prices tracked the international prices and also ended in the negative territory. Appreciation in the Indian rupee kept the MCX metal prices lower.

as on 20 February, 2013 WoW -3.3 MoM -1.5 YoY -3.6

Last 7964.0

Prev. day -1.1

$/tonne

Rs/kg

432.2

-1.2

-2.9

-1.4

6.0

$/tonne

2104.8

-0.4

-1.6

2.7

-4.0

Rs /kg

112.1

-0.6

-1.4

2.9

5.8

$/tonne

17057.0

-2.2

-7.3

-2.9

-14.7

Copper
Copper prices continued to extend losses of the previous day and fell 1.1 percent on Wednesday. Curbing of property purchases by the Chinese government led to the decline in the copper prices. In China the construction industry accounts for about 9 percent of the metal demand. Rise in the copper inventories on LME also supported the decline. However, signs of recovery in the US housing market limited the decline in the metal prices. The world copper refined market was in a deficit of 513,000 tonnes from January through November in 2012 according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). LME copper inventories gained 0.4 percent and stood at 412,950 tonnes as against 411,250 tonnes on February 18th, 2013. Copper prices on LME touched an intra-day low of $ 7,954 per tonne and closed at $ 7,964 per tonne on Wednesday. In the domestic markets, MCX copper fell 1.2 percent and closed at Rs. 432.2 per kg on Wednesday tracking the international metal prices and appreciation in the rupee. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metal prices to trade with a bearish note taking cues from weak global market sentiments created after US Federal Reserve gave indications that the stimulus measures might be discontinued or even slowed down. Strength in the DX might also act as a bearish factor for the base metals today. Depreciation in the rupee might cushion fall in the base metal prices on MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Feb13 MCX Zinc Feb 13 MCX Lead Feb 13 MCX Aluminum Feb13 MCX Nickel Feb 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for February 21, 2013 Support 430/427 114/113.2 126/125.2 111.5/111.8 917/910 Resistance 435/438 115.5/116.5

Rs /kg

923.4

-2.2

-6.8

-2.2

-5.8

$/tonne

2357.0

-1.1

-2.4

2.1

13.6

Rs /kg

126.9

-1.4

-2.1

2.5

26.1

$/tonne

2136.0

-0.8

-3.1

4.8

7.3

Rs /kg

114.9

-0.6

-2.4

5.3

18.0

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 20th February 412950 5151950 153306 1193250 288575 19th February 411250 5157450 153384 1191050 288325 Actual Change 1,700 -5,500 -78 2,200 250 (%) Change 0.41 -0.11 -0.05 0.18 0.09
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

127.5/128.5 112.8/113.5 932/942

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| February 21, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today

Indicator FOMC Meeting Minutes French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Public Sector Net Borrowing Spanish 10-y Bond Auction CBI Industrial Order Expectations Core CPI m/m Unemployment Claims CPI m/m Flash Manufacturing PMI Existing Home Sales Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Mortgage Delinquencies Natural Gas Storage Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

Country US EU EU EU EU EU EU UK EU UK US US US US US US US US US US

Time (IST) 12:30 am 1:30 pm 1:30 pm 2:00 pm 2:00 pm 2:30 pm 2:30 pm 3:00 pm Tentative 4:30 pm 7:00 pm 7:00 pm 7:00 pm 7:30 pm 8:30 pm 8:30 pm 21st-24th 9:00 pm 9:30 pm 11:00 pm

Actual -

Forecast 43.9 44.5 50.4 55.5 48.4 49.2 -11.3B -16 0.2% 361K 0.1% 55.6 4.91M 0.7 -119B 1.9M -

Previous 42.9 43.6 49.8 55.7 47.9 48.6 13.2B 5.29|2.3 -20 0.1% 341K 0.0% 55.8 4.94M -5.8 7.40% -157B 0.6M -

Impact High Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High High Medium Medium High High Medium Low Medium Medium

www.angelcommodities.com